Rebound Failed, market will be driven by news events next week(The following is merely a personal opinion and not investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.)
From Monday to Wednesday this week, the Nasdaq continued last week's rebound and reached the initial rebound target of 20,256, as previously mentioned. However, on Wednesday, the price began to pull back and filled Monday’s gap.
With U.S. tariffs set to take effect on April 2, the market is facing increased short-term uncertainty. On Friday, the bears encountered no resistance and drove the market down rapidly. The market is currently highly focused on tariff-related news, and without positive developments, prices may continue to decline. Once the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs is resolved, it will be important to monitor market sentiment and further developments.
For next week's trading, patience is key—waiting for more updates on tariffs and the potential market bottom. If positive news emerges after April 2, a V-shaped rebound remains possible.
From a technical perspective, since the market failed to break out effectively this week, the current market structure has broken below the long-term uptrend line that has been in place since 2023 on the weekly chart! Therefore, technically speaking, there is still significant downside potential. However, after several consecutive weeks of decline, prices are in an oversold state, making shorting at these levels relatively risky.
For short positions, it may be preferable to wait for a rebound to the 19,974–20,257 range before considering shorting opportunities based on further news developments. If the bears remain in control, prices should stay below 20,361. Otherwise, a breakout above 20,715, 21,098, and 21,370 could occur.
For long positions, it may be best to wait until the tariff-related news is fully priced in before making further observations. It would be prudent to confirm signals on the 4-hour chart before considering any long positions.
