Solana’s 2024 Cycle vs. 2020: Hidden Divergence Fractal
In this chart, we’re comparing Solana’s 2024 cycle to its 2020 cycle, with a focus on hidden bullish divergences in the RSI and similar bar structures. Both cycles are displaying key similarities in terms of duration, volume, and momentum shifts, which suggest that SOL might be gearing up for another strong rally.
2024 Cycle (Left):
Hidden Bullish Divergence: The current cycle shows a clear hidden bullish divergence in the RSI, which is often a sign of continuation in the prevailing trend, in this case, a long-term uptrend. This divergence is forming over a 273-bar period (~273 days), very similar to what we saw in 2020.
Volume Analysis: The volume during this consolidation phase is 81.725M, suggesting accumulation is happening despite the price consolidating in a range. Compare this to the 2020 cycle’s lower volume during the same period, and it becomes clear that there’s substantial interest in Solana during this phase.
46-bar Correction: The recent 46-bar correction (~46 days) aligns almost perfectly with the 2020 fractal, indicating a possible repeat of the pattern.
2020 Cycle (Right):
Fractal Comparison: The 2020 cycle, also showing a hidden bullish divergence over a 273-day period, led to a significant rally. After a similar 46-bar correction, SOL saw a major move upward, ultimately breaking through resistance levels. The hidden divergence on the RSI was the key signal of the bullish continuation that followed.
Volume: The volume during this phase in 2020 was notably lower than the 2024 cycle, reinforcing the idea that more liquidity and interest is now present, which could amplify the move when the breakout occurs.
Key Takeaways:
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Both cycles have strong hidden bullish divergences, which historically signal continuation. In this case, that would point to a resumption of the uptrend.
Fractal Consistency: The near-identical bar counts and price structures suggest that the 2024 cycle could follow a similar path to 2020. A breakout from this consolidation could take SOL to new highs if the fractal pattern continues to play out.
Volume: The higher volume in 2024 compared to 2020 supports a stronger potential breakout.
Traders should keep an eye on the RSI, volume, and any price action around key support and resistance zones, as Solana may be setting up for a move similar to its explosive 2020 rally.
