#SPX - 31 MarWas wrong on the move on Friday, as market trended down.
Need a bullish daily candle to negate this down move. Pullback to 5638/68 is a possible short for a move lower.
SP500FT trade ideas
spx slip up Let me start by saying SPX is my baby—this market gave me vision and taught me what I now call Cerberus. It pains me deeply to see such sloppy price engineering lately. These folks have gotten real careless with their price delivery, and that sloppiness is starting to spill into the broader global market.
However, it's clear from the Thursday error that they aren't planning to completely collapse the market just yet—just wanted to instill some pain and signal to everyone it's time to gear up for the long road ahead. Here's what's about to go down, so pay close attention:
Price will sweep below the low of 3.10.25, trigger a profit-booking event, and restore some hope in the market since it'll mark the second leg of the three-drive pattern currently forming. Now, let me flex real quick: SPX WILL HIT THE 4950 AREA BEFORE MAY 2026—mark my words.
Now, back to tradable events:
Mark 5680 as your sell level.
Price will accumulate around the 5480-5460 range, and the real end of this bounce comes at 5350.
Once these trades manifest, your buy-side target is 5790.
Again, don't be the fool who tries to swing-trade buy ideas before these key levels get hit. You've been warned.
US500 (S&P 500 ) INDEX TRADE IDEA 1 APRIL 2025Based on technical analysis, the US500 (S&P 500) has broken below its long-term ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. The bearish momentum is evident as the price has closed below the lower trendline, and a pullback to the 5,558 - 5,794 supply zone could provide a shorting opportunity. This area aligns with previous structural resistance, making it a key level for institutional sellers. If price action confirms rejection within this zone, a sell setup targeting 5,279, 5,157, and ultimately 4,803 could be viable. The trade remains invalid if price breaks above 5,860, as this would indicate a shift in market sentiment.
From a fundamental perspective, growing concerns over US-China tariff tensions could pressure corporate earnings and drive further downside. Additionally, economic slowdown indicators, including weakening consumer spending and rising corporate debt, are weighing on investor sentiment. The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report in April 2025 will be a key event to watch; a strong labor market report may keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish stance, leading to further stock market declines, while a weak report could reinforce recession fears. Given these factors, a short position remains favorable as long as the market respects the supply zone resistance. However, traders should remain cautious of unexpected shifts in monetary policy or geopolitical developments that could impact overall market direction.
Cycles and PatternsThe pattern seems to be a WXY (abc X abc) I expect a low Monday with a good bull trapping bounce, but then a lower low at the end of the week.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 11th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. We are in the second phase, which appears bearish by all indications. This is a significant bear market completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in my previous posts. My preliminary timeline projections for the base cycle completion were mentioned in the previous post.
⚠️ The extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury – turned the market downward after a small bullish correction. This was anticipated last week. The market lacked the strength even to reach the resistance level at 5850. A short position has been opened. The next extreme forecast is April 7.
S&P 500 Technical Breakdown – Bearish Momentum Building?Looking at this SPX Daily Chart, we’re seeing some clear signs of weakness in the market.
🔹 Breakdown from the Rising Channel – After months of uptrend, SPX has broken below its previous rising channel, signaling potential downside ahead.
🔹 Failed Recovery Attempt – The recent bounce formed a bear flag (highlighted in brown), but today’s sharp drop indicates that the relief rally has been rejected.
🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels in Play –
The 0.382 Fib retracement was acting as support, but price has now slipped below it.
Next key level: The 0.5 Fib (around 5,550) and the 0.618 Fib (near 5,438) could act as crucial support zones.
A deeper retracement to 4,982 (0.786 Fib) isn't out of the question if selling pressure accelerates.
🔹 Moving Averages & Volume –
The price is now under the 200-day moving average (blue line), which is typically a bearish signal if confirmed.
Volume has been increasing on red days, hinting at stronger selling conviction.
🔹 Support & Resistance Zones –
Resistance: ~5,822 (recent bounce level) and ~6,097 (previous high)
Support: ~5,402 and ~4,982 if selling intensifies.
🚨 Final Thoughts: The technical structure is turning bearish, and if the S&P 500 doesn’t reclaim key levels soon, further downside could be on the horizon. Bulls need to step in fast to avoid a deeper correction.
SPX500 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
SPX500 has been in a strong downtrend, and the price has already broken the 5,599.30 support level, confirming further bearish momentum. The next key support to watch is 5,506.40 (2025 lowest point).
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 5,599.30 (now turned resistance), 5,679.90
📉 Support: 5,506.40 – If broken, the sell-off could accelerate further.
🔹 Market Structure:
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Since 5,599.30 has already been broken, the price is likely to continue down to 5,506.40. A break below this level could push the market into new 2025 lows.
🚀 Bullish scenario: If the market pulls back above 5,599.30 and reclaims it as support, a temporary bounce to 5,679.90 could occur.
📌 Risk Management:
-Wait for price action confirmation before entering new positions.
-Monitor for potential retests of broken levels.
My last warning To Donald Trump and Americansif you Attack Iran's infrastructure, America enters a shitty situation that will last for not years but for decades. you can fix the problem by supporting the Iran's King Reza Pahlavi and the people and the mullahs will be overthrown easily but you are Unknowingly doing it in a very wrong way, if you do it Stockholm syndrome will happen.
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Price has ping on the channel edges. I hope it becomes just a simple correction but Americans ego is is in line with technicals.
Monthly Chart SPX Cautious Liquidity PositioningThis month, the S&P 500 (SPX) has shown signs of a cautious liquidity shift as investors take a more measured approach to risk. While the index remains near all-time highs, underlying market activity suggests hesitation rather than aggressive buying. I currently have no active positions.
Investors are rotating out of high-growth stocks and into more defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. This shift signals concerns about potential volatility, possibly due to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, economic data, or geopolitical risks. At the same time, large tech stocks—key drivers of the market rally—are seeing some profit-taking, further indicating a more defensive stance.
In the options market, there has been increased demand for downside protection. A rising put-to-call ratio and higher implied volatility suggest that traders are preparing for potential pullbacks rather than chasing new highs. Retail speculation has also slowed, with lower volumes in leveraged ETFs and call options.
Another sign of caution is the increase in money market fund inflows, as investors park cash in short-term instruments offering attractive yields. The U.S. Treasury’s ongoing debt issuance is also pulling liquidity away from equities.
While the Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts later this year, inflation remains a concern, keeping policymakers on hold for now. Market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed further out, tightening financial conditions and limiting excess liquidity that previously fueled stock market gains.
Overall, SPX liquidity trends this month suggest the market is at a turning point. While the index remains strong, the cautious stance in underlying market activity raises questions about whether stocks can continue higher without a fresh catalyst.
The Close 3-2818 monthly ma being at 535 on spy makes me feel like a flush to there on Monday is quite possible. The C wave idea is being negated as of now in favor of another 5 wave move to 535.
2pm updateqqq has filled it's gap, spy hasn't Some megacaps are at strong support, where usually buyers would step in. No guarantee this reverses. Monday may be a flush to 535 on SPY
0 DTE Call Spread - SPX0 DTE Call Spread
-5755 +5760
4.48% gain on cap invested
Started at 0.5 Delta
SPX Update - DowntrendThe S&P 500 (SPX) is showing signs of a downward trend, aligning with the 123 wave target around 5220. This critical area could offer insights into the next potential moves in the market.
Market Neutral: Nasdaq, S&P500, Nikkei225, Hang SengThe equity indices has fallen to our target and we are seeing 5-wave completions. So I think it is a good time to reduce your shorts and move from a short to a more neutral stance. The current price is also a good support for the indices.
Remember that there is a weekend risk here also.
Good luck!
US500US500 Price Action Analysis and Trade Setups (March 28, 2025)
Price Action Summary:
Weekly Chart: Long-term uptrend intact, but recent rejection near 6,200 signals a medium-term correction.
Daily Chart: Price is consolidating near 5,600 after a sharp drop from highs. Bearish momentum persists.
4H Chart: Lower highs and lower lows confirm short-term bearish bias. Resistance at 5,750 is holding.
1H Chart: Intraday range between 5,550 and 5,750. Price struggling to break higher.
Trade of the Day (Day Trading Setup)
Short Setup:
Entry: 5,700 after rejection at resistance
Stop Loss: 5,770
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,620
TP2: 5,550
Reason: Short-term bearish structure with resistance holding at 5,750.
Swing Trading Setup
Short Setup:
Entry: Below 5,550 after daily close confirmation
Stop Loss: 5,650
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,300
TP2: 5,100
Gold not looking good I thinkI do not think gold looks good, It is falling from the Head and Shoulder inverted patter.
US500 Long Setup – 15M | NYC Reversal from Demand Bias: Bullish Trade Setup Overview:
After a deep selloff and subsequent accumulation pattern, US500 printed a clean bullish reaction from the lower demand zone during the NY session, signaling a potential continuation to the upside.
Key Confluences:
🔹 Accumulation + Manipulation Phase Complete
The chart shows classic Wyckoff accumulation followed by manipulation below short-term lows, leading into an aggressive NY open rally—suggesting institutional involvement.
🔹 Entry From Demand + FVG Reclaim
Price tagged the 5676.5 level, which aligns with the edge of a refined 15M FVG and an H1 demand zone. Strong rejection and follow-through confirms buyer strength.
🔹 Clean Break of Supply Structure
Price has pierced through a previous short-term supply zone, turning it into potential support. This is a signal that bulls are reclaiming control.
Bias: Bullish
Entry: 5676.5
Stop Loss: 5660.4
Take Profits:
TP1: 5693.6
TP2: 5720.0
TP3: 5781.6
#SPX - 28 MarI was bearish SPX yesterday and the PZ held the rallies and price just sold down to new lows.
Overall, price is still in consolidation and the flush to new lows could see another move back to the highs of yesterday. Looking for an up from here.
A review of the Indexes 3-27An overview of all the indexes I follow. Most are showing indecision after today.
3/27/2025 SPY outlook_bearishHello traders,
Hope you’re doing well in this choppy market. I initially expected a squeeze after rebounding from the 5500 area, but that didn’t happen. Instead, the 200 SMA acted as resistance, forming a bear flag over the last few trading days. I expect a break below the bear flag support line, leading to a move toward the 5100 area.
I’m not trading SPY directly, but since most stocks follow SPY these days, I wanted to share my outlook. Buying UVXY could be a good option.
May the trend be with you.
AP
S&POne last trade for the day, same as NAS100 this pair just swept sellers and went for buyers if this is an inverted sell we'll move with it
#SPX - 27 MarI was wrong on the move for SPX yesterday as market sold down strongly. Bearish price action and so much that I think market is still bullish above 5600, based on daily price action, IMO we will further downside as long as 5750 holds.
