S&P500 no major pullbacks expected in 2025. Year-end Target 7200The S&P500 (SPX) has started the first week of the new year (2025) on a positive note following a red December. In fact December was only the 3rd red month of the whole 2024. Based on its 16-year Channel Up pattern, this bullish trend isn't expected to slowdown in 2025.
In fact, no major pull-backs are expected this year, as the end sequence of 2024 resembles the August 2013, which led to a very bullish 18-month period after.
As you can see, the start of the Channel Up, which was the bottom of the 2008 - 2009 U.S. Housing Crisis followed the same stages as the pattern after the March 2020 COVID bottom. The bottoms have been stage (a) with (b) being the first short-term pull-back and (c) the second, which was also a 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test. It appears that we are currently on stage (d), where as explained led the way to a bullish 18-month period.
The peak of the early Channel Up pattern was on the 2.786 Fibonacci extension from the stage (c) bottom and the 18-month period ended on the 1.382 time Fib extension. If we take the same measurements on the post COVID pattern, the 1.382 time Fib extension lands on October 2026. For 2025 alone we can expect a +23.73% rise from the last red candle of (d), if the post August 2013 12-month pattern is followed, which gives us an end-of-year (2025) Target of 7200.
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