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Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 | SPX Triple Top or Rocket?SPX came roaring back once again after the drop in the first week of September, much like August. The question now is do we get another rejection or a new ATH? I believe we'll find out soon enough as we have one of the most anticipated FOMC decisions in years this week. We've seen some extreme volatility since the beginning of August and I expect it to continue. If you ask me, this cut will mark the beginning of the US recession that I believe will be much worse than anything we've seen in modern times. Some folks like Jamie Dimon are warning of that possibility as well, but many others are saying the opposite. The market may not tank immediately, if ever. So it's important to stick to the charts during times like these. I'd be cautious this week, but after the dust settles we should have a good idea of where things stand. I remain in the bearish camp, but I'll be looking for longs if we rip past ATH this week. I'll be quick to stop out in the case we end up rejecting quickly back below for a big fakeout/bull trap. I currently have puts targeting August and April lows first, with a stop above ATH. The back half of September historically has seen the worst returns in each year. The first rate cut and yield curve inversion flip have also historically marked major market tops and recessions. It should be an interesting fall either way, hopefully with a lot of opportunity.
SP:SPXShort
by AdvancedPlays
Market Indecision 2024! (Diamond Reversal)It has been an interesting few years in the markets. One of the hottest bull runs coming off the Pandemic lows to a 7 month bear market in 2022, followed by another epic bull run! We are now at a major decision point for markets. Up or Down! Recession fears abound while small caps are ready to pop waiting on rate cuts. The S&P as lopsided as ever with Mag 7 carrying the entire index for 2 years. Where are we going next? At every "potential" market top, the convergence between an ascending channel meets a potential descending channel forming a diamond shaped pattern. This pattern is the indecision point of any given market, but don't get bearish yet. A diamond reversal pattern can break in either direction, reversal or continuation . I have documented both the historical moves and the future potential paths. Remember that markets are not pre-ordained to do anything. They have to make decisions, and while you may have already decided your personal view, you can let the market confirm your biases one step at a time. React! Don't predict! 1) Halfway mark from 10/23 run to $6000 target -4/19 bottom starts 2nd leg -Bull Flag Consolidation 2) Diamond Reversal (Minor) -Rate cuts? Yes/No -And Why? Economy vs Inflation **Upside Breakout on 9/13 3) Rate cuts hinted for Sep FOMC -Halted 38% run from 10/23 -Halted 62% run from 10/22 4) Required drop to form minor/major diamond of indecision. -Blamed on Japanese Carry Trade* -Note the drop is perfect 78.6% retrace from 4/19 Run *Japanese Carry Trade margin collapse was instead caused by formation. **This was also opportunistic early rotation into treasuries. 5) Bullish rejection of minor diamond -Resilient CPI and Jobs provide cover for soft landing narrative. -Note the rejection confirms on diamond neutral line @ 38.2% 4/19 fib and healthy 20WMA bounce 6) Rate Cuts!!! -Rate cut odds are near equal between .25 vs .50 -Note a rejection confirms Double Top -Breakout confirms $6000 7) Blow off top!!! -Note the identical pattern to 2022 top *The Ancient Trendline is based on a back-dated creation of the S&P 500 by Standard & Poors as the index was founded in 1957 8) Bullish Ascending Channel starts in Jun-Oct 2022 -A short break here confirms new bearish descending channel and major diamond reversal. -This will be your bearish hint towards bearish 2025 but don't short yet!! -No break confirms ascending channel but EOY will give one more opportunity for a break. 9) End of Year typical Tax Loss Harvesting, Santa Rally, etc. -Unlikely to see a bullish breakout here -If Continuation occurs, it will be Jan into Feb 10) Last chance for Bears! -Need bearish breakdown to confirm both diamond and descending channel 11) Descension confirmation marks several opportunities on path down for bullish break outs -Initial Support @ $4800 (20% drop from top) -Secondary Support @ $4450 (25% drop from top) -Massive Support @ $4144 (30% drop from top) Best of luck in 2025 whatever you decide! Game on!
CBOE:SPX
by jasonchristy
4
Which Presidential Term Year is the Most Profitable?An intriguing question from a recent client call led me to dive into the data. Here's what I uncovered about the relationship between presidential term years and stock market returns. The Analysis Data: Historical SPX (S&P 500) returns Grouping: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years of presidential terms Visualization: Each line represents returns for a specific term year Color Key 1st year: Red 2nd year: Orange 3rd year: Green 4th year: Yellow Total SPX: White Combined 1st + 3rd years: Purple Key Findings The Winner: 3rd Year The third year of presidential terms significantly outperforms others, beating 2nd and 4th years by a notable margin. Runner-up: 1st Year Surprisingly, the first year takes second place. Perhaps the optimism surrounding a new presidency plays a role? Underperformers: 2nd and 4th Years 2nd years appear relatively uneventful. 4th years (election years) show more volatility, likely due to electoral uncertainty. Combined Power of 1st and 3rd Years The purple line (1st + 3rd years combined) closely tracks the total SPX return (white line), suggesting these two years drive a significant portion of overall market gains. Important Notes Not every year within each category showed positive returns. The analysis reveals average trends, not guarantees for future performance. Food for Thought How might this insight influence long-term investment strategies? What factors could explain the 3rd year's outperformance? Does this pattern hold true across different economic cycles or administrations? What's your take on this analysis? Does it shift your perspective on market cycles or political terms?
SP:SPX
by marketscripters
More upside for SPX500USDHi traders, It's like magic! Last week I said it was decision time for SPX500USD because if it wanted to go up it had to do it from the Daily FVG. And what happened? It did exactly that! So did you make some profit? For next week we could see a correction down and more upside for this pair. Trade idea: Wait for a correction down and after that a change in orderflow to bullish again to trade longs. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
SP500 Index Forecasted (Timeframe H4)Salam and Good Day, This is my personal opinion for educational purposes only. This is the S&P 500 (SP500) Index in a 4-hour timeframe. Let’s analyze the key components and forecast the possible next move: Key Observations: Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The chart displays key Fibonacci retracement levels from a recent high of around 5,677.69 down to a recent low of 5,108.02. The price has retraced and is currently sitting between the 50% (5,470.41) and 61.8% (5,555.19) retracement levels. These levels are crucial for determining possible resistance and support points in a trending market. Trendlines: An orange uptrend line from earlier in the year was broken in August. This break may have signalled the start of the downtrend visible in recent weeks. A downward-sloping trendline (gray) is present, marking lower highs, indicating that the broader market might still be in a corrective or consolidation phase. Current Price: The price is trading around 5,627, just below the 5,650 level, which is near the 61.8% Fibonacci level (5,555.19). This area could act as significant resistance to further upward movement. MACD Indicator: The MACD is showing relatively weak momentum, with the histogram bars slightly rising but not strongly indicating a trend reversal yet. This suggests that while a short-term upward movement has occurred, the overall market sentiment might still be in flux. My Forecast: Bullish Scenario: If the price can break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (5,555) and close above 5,650, we could see further upward movement targeting the recent highs around 5,677.69. A breakout above this resistance zone may result in a continuation of the uptrend. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to hold above 5,650 and the 61.8% Fibonacci level, rejection may occur, pushing the price lower. The next support to watch would be around 50% Fibonacci retracement (5,470), followed by stronger support at 38.2% (5,384.88). A fall below 5,470 could lead to a further decline, testing 5,279.07 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). Next level to be closely monitor : Monitor the 5,555 - 5,650 resistance zone closely. A decisive close above this range with strong volume would confirm bullish strength. A rejection at current levels could indicate a resumption of the downtrend, potentially leading to a retracement to lower Fibonacci levels. Thanks Mustaqim Mazuky Independent Trader/Investor
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by mustaqim.mazuky
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the trading sessions of the current week, the S&P 500 Index has exhibited notable resilience, demonstrating a movement toward the Mean Resistance level of 5648 and the Key Resistance, and completed the Inner Index Rally level of 5666. A resilient rebound to this level in the upcoming week’s session is highly likely, with the possibility of further movement to the subsequent Inner Index Rally at 5739. Conversely, an anticipated downward movement toward the targeted Mean Support level of 5557 is expected upon achieving a resilient rebound.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election #Spx 1D chart; Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart; They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together): *#Nasdaq100 *#Oil *#Bitcoin (sometimes) Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days. Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days. In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin. If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month. SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election: Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17% Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10% After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10% After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
CBOE:SPXLong
by ugurtash
Fed’s Rate Decision to Set the Tone for Stocks, Gold and CryptoOfficials at the central bank are staying tight-lipped over the magnitude of the interest rate cut. What we know so far: there will be one. What we don’t know: is it going to be 25bps or 50bps? Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell (or JPow if you’re a cool kid) is most likely having a hard time sleeping these days. Lurking in the near distance, September 18 to be precise, is a decision he should make that has the power to slosh trillions of dollars across global markets. Stock valuations, crypto prices and the glow of gold all hinge on a single figure — the US interest rate ( USINTR ). Major central banks are on the move to unwind their restrictive monetary policies, especially when it comes to global interest rates . Investors have been trying to run ahead of the interest rate decision and position their portfolios to accommodate both a small casual trim to borrowing costs but also a bigger, juicier slash. Clashing opinions over the size of the interest rate reduction have been swaying the financial markets in recent weeks. Fed officials haven’t sent out any comms regarding that question so markets do what they do best — speculate. According to the FedWatch tool by CME Group, at the end of this week, investors were nearly even in their expectations for the upcoming interest rate cut with 55% calling for a 25bps (basis points) cut and 45% rooting for the fuller treatment of 50bps. In any case, this would be the Federal Reserve’s first cut to borrowing costs in more than four years. The benchmark rate in the US is currently sitting at a 23-year high of 5.5% — a level that has stayed flat since July. After a series of reports pointing to a wobbling economy — and on the back of mostly receding inflation — the central banking clique issued its uplifting guidance at their previous meeting, saying rates are about to go down when they meet again. But what they didn’t say — because they’re data dependent — is how much. A 25bps cut to interest rates would most likely be already priced in across the spectrum. Stocks, the US dollar, gold and even cryptocurrency are now acting as if this level of rate cut is factored in. Moreover, some investors might even be disappointed to see a rate cut of that casual magnitude. Buy the rumor, sell the news, maybe? A 50bps cut to interest rates could bring some needed fuel for the next leg up in stocks, gold and crypto. And, on the flip side, knock the dollar’s valuation. Lower interest rates make money more affordable, enticing investors, businesses and consumers to get more cash out of the bank and spend more freely on big-ticket purchases. Obviously, investors shove the cash into various markets. Businesses expand operations and build new products. And consumers, well, they buy the new iPhone 16 and jam what's left in meme stocks ? Perhaps even more importantly, lower interest rates help steer the economy, keeping it on an upward trajectory. Liquidity improves, because there’s more money flowing in the system, and valuations of public and private assets usually increase. Take gold ( XAU/USD ), for example. Gold hit an all-time high Friday morning, pumping above $2,570 per ounce . Driving the gains was the relationship between gold and the prospects of lower rates, which make bullion more appealing because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. At the same time, the US dollar loses some of its allure because the reduction in rates triggers a lower yield on dollar deposits. Bitcoin ( BTC/USD ) is another interest -ing candidate to join the rate interplay. The OG token has been increasingly correlated to macroeconomic factors and the rate decision is already seen impacting its price in a positive way. Stocks have been in choppy trading mode over the past couple of months largely due to the looming uncertainty about the looming rate-setting meeting. So what do you think it’s going to be — 25bps or 50bps? And how would it affect financial markets? Shoot your thoughts below!
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by TradingView
9
SPx - Price Surge, Key Levels, and Market Volatility AheadS&P 500 Technical Analysis: The price pushed up about 3% as we mentioned and still running to get 5673 ATH by breaking of 5616. So now it's possible to do a retest till 5573 and then push up to break 5616, otherwise stability above 5616 will support rising to get ATH Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5616 Resistance Levels: 5640, 5672, 5700 Support Levels: 5573, 5526, 5455 Expected Trading Range: 5672 - 5526 Additionally, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) delivering strong results and an anticipated rate cut next week, the market is likely to experience significant volatility. previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Inverse H&S Pattern On Daily SPXGood day Traders and followers! I spotted a inverse head & shoulder pattern in the daily SPX on Oanda. A breakout above 5670 area should trigger lot's of bullish activity as long as price doesn't fall back under during a test IF ONE OCCURS. 6066.7 would be a target area for this one. Always wait for things to play out before you put your money on the table. We are here to make $$$ not donate to the world casino. Best of luck in all your trades in the mean time. Until next time, Cheers!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Trade-Farmer
S&P 500 chart analysisThe S&P 500 is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling potential consolidation within this chart structure. The stock is likely to trade between the resistance level at 5650 and the support level at 5400 in the near term. If the index fails to hold above 5400, it may drop towards the next key support at 5300. A breakout above 5650 would suggest a bullish move, while a breakdown below 5300 could lead to further downside. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation of the next direction.
SP:SPX
by TraderhrTrading
Risk appetite returnsUS stock indices flew higher last night, led by a strong advance in tech stocks. This saw the S&P 500 and NASDAQ end the session up 1.1% and 2.2% respectively. The Dow and Russell 2000 lagged somewhat, with both closing 0.3% higher, but overall the tone was positive. The gains followed the latest update on US inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. This was viewed as a key piece of data coming just one week before the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting where the FOMC is expected to announce its first interest rate cut in over four years. Initially, the markets reacted negatively to the numbers. While Headline CPI (which includes food and energy) fell to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.9% previously, Core CPI was unchanged at 3.2%. More worryingly, there was a small uptick in the monthly data as inflation in the services side of the US economy, which includes shelter and transportation, remains very sticky. But the drop in the Headline number, which follows another benign reading from last month’s Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) clears the way for a rate cut next week. As to the size of that cut, the CME’s FedWatch Tool now assigns an 87% probability of 25 basis points, up from 66% earlier this week and 50% a month ago. The odds now favour a total of 100 basis points-worth of cuts between now and the year-end, with 125 basis points now less likely. Amid all the rate cut talk, it’s worth remembering that the Federal Reserve continues to run down its balance sheet, and thereby quietly tightens monetary policy. Could the Fed announce that this policy will now cease, seeing as it runs in opposition to rate cuts? US stock index futures are firmer across the board this morning, and the bulls have a spring in their step. The S&P is just 100 points shy of its record high and the bulls seem determined to take this out as soon as they can. If they do, then the big question is: what then?
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
1