Bulls and Bears zone for 08-02-2024After selling off yesterday, S&P 500 closed at bottom third which could be bearish sign. Level to watch : 5400 --- 5398 Report to watch: US Factory Orders 10am EST by traderdan590
S&P 500 Index Price Falls Amid Negative NewsS&P 500 Index Price Falls Amid Negative News Yesterday, disappointing news about the US economy was released. According to ForexFactory: → The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.5 to 46.8 (analysts expected a rise to 48.8), indicating a decline in industrial production. → The number of unemployment benefit claims reached 249,000 – the highest in 12 months. As a result, US stock indices declined, with bearish sentiment further driven by weak Q2 reports from several companies: → Intel decided to halt dividend payments (INTC shares plummeted by 19%). → Amazon reported a revenue decline (AMZN shares dropped by 6%). The outperformance of sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities compared to technology stocks suggests that investors fear a recession and are rotating into more stable assets. Meanwhile, the daily S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) indicates a vulnerable position – since mid-April, the price has been moving within an upward channel (shown in blue), but today it is near the lower boundary, creating a risk of a bearish breakout. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): → Having twice acted as support, the 5585 level has become resistance (as indicated by the arrows). A similar transformation may occur with the psychological level of 5400. → The lower highs in July provide grounds to define the contours of a downward channel, which will gain more relevance if the bears manage to push the price through the lower blue boundary – intensifying recession talks. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice. by FXOpen118
Futures Slide as AMZN & Intel Disappoint; Key Jobs Data Awaited Futures Slide as Amazon and Intel Forecasts Disappoint; Jobs Data Awaited U.S. index futures fell sharply on Friday following downbeat forecasts from Amazon and Intel. Investors are now awaiting a crucial jobs report for further insights into the labor market amid ongoing concerns over an economic slowdown. S&P 500 Analysis: Downside !!! The S&P 500 dropped sharply as noted yesterday and continues to trend bearish. Bullish Scenario: For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5,409, potentially reaching 5,438 and 5,460. Bearish Scenario: If trading continues below 5,409, the price is expected to drop to 5,372 and 5,345. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5,409 - Resistance Levels: 5,438, 5,460, 5,491 - Support Levels: 5,372, 5,346, 5,320 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance at 5,438 and the support at 5,320. Today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Unemployment Rate reports are expected to significantly impact the market. Previous idea: Shortby SroshMayi4
RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD moment for US Indices.Hi Guys, The US Indices are facing some real selling pressure currently and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in particular are in critical must hold price areas if they are to keep their uptrends on daily timeframe intact. There is a bearish harmonic Gartley pattern that is developing on the SP500 with perfect fib ratios. If price holds the current level and we see a rally then the pattern's entry point would coincide with a strong resistance zone/ supply area , where sell setups should arise. 4HR overbought RSI could also be added as confluence should price rally to that point. Lower time frame entry using shooting star or engulfing candle or double top, inv head shoulders pattern or CHOCH or trendline break etc.. would allow for tight stop loss placement and result in a nice risk to reward trade with target being the current support zone. If we break and close on the 4hour or Daily time frame then we would have confirmation of trend change/ reversal point / break of structure and can start looking at lower points for discount buy zones and start selling into any bulllish rallies from this point. I personally wouldn't mind seeing a reversal here and a return to some lower prices but we will see how things play out here. Markets are very volatile at the moment so there are plenty of opportunities but ensure that you have risk management under control before entering into any trades. Safe trading all.by elyask120Updated 2
S&P 500 More Downside RiskA few factors to consider a. Supply / Demand - the Supply Zone is at the prior swing high (ATH) of 5679. The Demand zone is at 5220-5270. b. Support level - support comes in 5320. Tested by 8 candles, broken by 1. c. Equal Measured Move - if we consider an equal move as the last bearish retracement in March/April , we arrive also at 5320. d. Fibonacci - this area of interest also coincides with Fib 50-618 levels. e. RSI - is in the selling half , sitting at 41. Price has a deal of room to move towards the demand zone. f. Volume Spread Analysis - yesterday had an extraordinary volume with a large spread. The buyers got involved , but the sellers turned up bigtime. Today we have an average volume as price shuttles lower, some 40 points given up on the lower volume. 5400 has been a line in the sand. However, with the dominance of selling seen in the last 12 days , combined with the above factors , a bias exists for a trade to the short side. Shortby Umlingo0
$SPX Trading Range for Friday, August 2ndSo, in SPX, one of the biggest levels to have on your chart is the 50-day moving average. We have definitely been chopping around that level since last Thursday, and quite violently this week. The 50-day is directly above where we closed, and then the 35 EMA is right above that as well. At the very top of the implied move, we have the 30-minute 200 moving average coming down from above the trading range, and the momentum on that is down. We clearly saw a rejection there today, so be careful if we get near the top of the trading range. The average is also at the top of the trading range, and they look like they’re about to cross down. That is a bearish cross, to see the 30-minute get underneath the one-hour like that. Under us, we have support at 5399. We bounced there three times: last Thursday, last Friday, and then this week on Tuesday. Underneath that, we have another gap. That is the rest of the gap left over from FOMC in June. When we dipped into that level last week on Thursday, we did see some buying there, and we filled that gap about halfway. Good luck tomorrow, guys!by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading4
US500, NASDAQ at KEY level The price is currently at a key level, testing both support and the trendline. 1. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): - If the price breaks below the support level, it may indicate the beginning of an ABC correction in the Elliott Wave pattern. - Action: Open a SHORT position with a smaller lot size. - If the price then retests the broken support (now acting as resistance), you should open another SHORT position with a larger lot size. - Target Levels: The price could initially drop to 5300 and potentially further to 4930. 2. Bullish Scenario (Support Holds): - If the support holds and you observe bullish price action (e.g., long needles at the bottom of the candles), open a LONG position. - Action: If the price forms a higher high and a higher low, or breaks above the resistance at 5560 and retests it, you can add to your LONG position. Fundamental: Recently, a technology crisis impacted Microsoft and several other companies' stocks. However, it appears that they have managed the situation effectively, suggesting a potential price increase. Despite this, the Volatility Index (VIX) keeps increasing, indicating persistent fear among investors. As a result, there is an equal 50/50 chance of prices moving either up or down.by tselmegFOREXUpdated 3
Fed Rate Rally could fail on StocksSo Stock market rallied to the anticipated September rate cut after an initial sell off earlier last week. I am seeing this rally as fake rally or retrace of the earlier sell off. I am seeing a gap window that needs to close as well as unsupported money flow for the rally. I think the rally will likely fail after the gap down window closes. see it on the chart. I am only sharing my trade notes and this should not be considered as financial or investment advice or recommendation. please do your own analysis and if you care about the trading community then share your trade idea. Best of trading Shortby RICHINVESTORUpdated 228
Weekly Update: At the very least...ITS TIME TO RAISE CASH !!!!Since I last updated you on the overall markets, price has retreated lower. (Click Here for the last Market Update) The Nasdaq futures contract (NQ) has declined a total of 10.76% whereas the SP500 futures contract (ES) has only declined 5.05% from their respective all-time highs earlier in July. Does the Divergence between the weakness of the NQ, and relative strength of the ES, tell us anything? As I take in volumes of information to access the current pattern I find myself overwhelmed with the musings of more experienced market participants. A reasonable explanation would be the Nasdaq outperformed on the way up and is now underperforming on the way down. A sign possibly it got ahead of itself? Sure. However, in my experience, the answer is more nuanced to advancing and declining markets than simply the Nasdaq outperformed earlier and is now underperforming. I find Bob Farrell’s “Market Rules to Remember” always a good list to consult in the most interesting of market times. In his top 10 list of market rules, I find the market somewhere between rule #2 and rule#4 rather germane to the current price action. Rule #2 states : “Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.” Whereas Rule #4 states : “Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.” Have we achieved the one directional excess that will lead to excesses in the opposite direction yet? Does this rapidly rising market have further to go? These are questions that are impossible to answer right now as the current price action in the NQ and ES tends to favor both rules. To further explain with respect to Rule#2…as long as we remain above the April lows in both the NQ and the ES, we retain the ability to continue to subdivide higher . Right now, those April lows seem like worlds away from the current consciousness of traders. However, from an Elliottitions’ perspective, the upside pattern is not damaged in the least, as long as we remain above those April lows. But to say the advancing price action has not been damaged in the least is somewhat an oversimplification of the technical structure of the recent price action as notated in RN Elliott’s original theories. Elliott Wave Theory simply put states that a trend will persist in 5 distinct waves, and counter trend price action will retrace the trend but only in 3 distinct waves. This forms the basis of trends, or (Motive Waves) and counter trends, or (Corrective Waves). The exception to this primary tenant of EWT is, wait for it …… (A diagonal Pattern) . Anyone can use the Google Machine for a definition of what a diagonal is within the construct of Elliott Wave Theory. However, I will add that the sentiment of market participants usually is that of tepid confidence. Traders not entirely sure of their actions....FOMO. Nonetheless, using this basic premise, this is how I interpret the current market price action. Disclaimer: I am not a fortune teller. I do not levitate off the ground, nor do I smoke a pipe like a wizard. Elliott Wave Theory is a construct to provide simply a higher probability forecast of future price action...NOT A GUARANTEE. Many times, with more price action and the benefit of hindsight, patterns can be interpreted as something other than what was originally perceived. The current price action in the NQ can persist to new all-time highs right now. However, to do so, would ONLY be accomplished as an Ending Diagonal for wave 5 of larger V of even larger wave (III). This sort of price action, if it subdivides to it’s ultimate conclusion, would eventually result in a market crash of sorts. Ending Diagonal patterns ideally return to their point of origination in relatively short order. The origination point of this potential pattern is the April lows. That would be considered a pretty hefty decline if that were to play out and certainly scare those who remain permanently bullish by virtue of a lack of imagination. The ES, although not nearly as precarious as the NQ pattern is, would undoubtedly follow suit to a large extent. Therefore, I will conclude by humbly offering some unsolicited advice. The professionals, the market media and your day trader buddy…all will chime in when it’s time to buy. Its crickets…when it’s time to sell. You, nor I, have ever turned on CNBC to hear…”Folks it’s time to sell stocks”. In my last update on the markets, I ended with this statement... these decisions are only yours alone to make. I will not tell you to sell now. However, I’ll tell you this. It is time to raise some cash. Could the market make new highs? Sure. But have you honestly done a risk/reward scenario for these potential incremental new highs? Take that suggestion for what it may be worth. Best to all, Chris by maikisch19
Long trade Observed Price Action Wed 31st July 24 NY Session - 3:00 PM Buyside 1-minute TF entry Entry: 5532.1 Profit Level: 5614.2 (1.48%) Stop Level: 5513.8 (0.33%) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.49Longby davidjulien369Updated 0
Long trade Tue 30th July 24 Entry 5min TF 15:10 PM NY Session PM Entry: 5439.1 Profit level: 5465.9 (0.49%) Stop level: 5433.5 (0.10%) RR: 5.09Longby davidjulien369Updated 0
S&P 500 - BULLISH DOUBLE BOTTOMHello Traders ! The S&P 500 Index formed a double bottom pattern. Currently, The neckline is broken ! So, I expect a new bullish move📈 ______________ TARGET: 5563.50🎯Longby Hsan_BenhmedUpdated 8827
S&P500 Huge rebound on former 2year ChannelUp! New Highs coming!The S&P500 index (SPX) reached and held last week the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the former 2-year Channel Up pattern that was the vessel of market recovery from the 2022 inflation crisis. The results of holding this line have been immediate as this week is so far deep into green and is about to recover all losses sustained from the previous 1W candle. At the same time it is a Higher Low on the (dashed) 9-month Channel Up. Those two developments open the way for a new mega-bullish pattern that has the Support of its former one. As long as the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) remains intact, we still look towards a new Higher High, targeting 6200, which may be a modest Target since it is quite below the +28.56% mark, which is the rise that the previous Bullish Leg had. So far all major long-term rallies since the October 2022 bottom have been around +30%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot2224
FOMC Spurs Rally, signals the end of S&P500 pullback?Boosted by positive news: the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policymakers are closer to cutting rates and, if conditions are met, they might do so as early as the September meeting. This certainly reassured the market. The S&P 500 surged 1.58% yesterday, breaking through the downtrend line, signaling an end to the short-term correction. However, the upper shadow of yesterday's candlestick reached the previous gap level, indicating significant resistance at this point. Therefore, if the price breaks through this resistance level in the coming days, it could trigger a new short-term rally. Longby xugina781
SPX500 H1 | Strong bullish uptrendSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,525.07 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,483.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 5,588.27 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.Long03:01by FXCM114
S&P short analysisAs mentioned, I believe stock market is due for a correction and it started last week with the NASDAQ:GOOG earnings as i have mentioned in my previous post. Today we have $APPL and NASDAQ:AMZN earnings. I think APPL still has some downside potential especially with the earnings in China. US and China trade war affects APPL alot because they have a huge consumer base in China. All this tarriffs is going to hurt the earnings. Magnificent Seven are going to bring the #S&P500 and #NASDAQ down this quarter. A healthy correction is always welcomed. Shortby willisloyefx3
Bearish reversal?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 5,578.21 1st Support: 5,507.10 1st Resistance: 5,629.45 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.UShortby ICmarkets11
US500Acording to my view this bull run is going to continue the whole year,but you can't see this if you are trading in M5 charts,there is no way that you can see this coming but am showing you how you can easily make a million dollar by just buying one of this n patiently wait for remaining mouths to be rich few people's will be in this trains those are investors n strong minded traders they won't mess this opportunity trust me n they are in as am saying,any pull back they add more positions.Longby mulaudzimpho1
S&P 500 has been quite negative during JulyThe S&P 500 has been quite volatile throughout the week, but it would be remiss not to point out that it ended with a slightly negative candle that has rebounded. In other words, while we are not entirely neutral, it certainly looks like the market is trying to recover. This trend can be observed across all equity markets, suggesting it's only a matter of time before we start taking long positions again. Breaking above the 5500 level should open the possibility for the market to retest its highs. If it breaks down, I see massive support at the 5300 level. by JoelFinancial3
Long trade Reason...since recent observation of price action (sellside) and reaching a critical pitvol price level...mapped out on the chart (buystops) was the confluence for entry. Buyside trade Trade Details: Date: Tuesday, 30th July 2024 1-minute timeframe (TF) Session: New York Session PM (16:10) Entry Details: Entry Price: 5410.7 Profit Level: 5482.8 (representing a 1.33% gain from the entry price) Stop Level: 5404.4 (representing a 0.12% loss from the entry price) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 11.44 Overview 4Hr TF Longby davidjulien369Updated 0
SPX500. Where to look for purchases and sales.Hello traders and investors! Let's analyze the SPX500. Weekly Timeframe Analysis: A buyer's impulse has formed on the weekly TF with an impulse base of $5193.1. The seller performed well, showing a good spread and volume. Key impulse candle from 06/10/24 (candle with the highest volume in the impulse, “KC” on the chart), its close is slightly below 50% of the impulse. I assume that the seller will lower the price to the key candle, where it will be necessary to evaluate the buyer’s actions to search for purchases. Daily Timeframe Analysis: On the daily timeframe, the seller broke through the bottom of the buyer's last impulse ($5577.4). The seller's impulse is not over yet, since there has not been a buyer's candle yet. The base of the seller's momentum is $5680.4. While the seller is protecting the $5577.4 level, it is advisable to look for sales. 2H Timeframe Analysis: On the 2-hour time frame, the price formed a sideways movement (the lower border of the sideways movement is $5577.4). Then the seller broke through the lower border of the sideways movement and launched a short trend. The base of the seller's last impulse is $5568. 50% of the seller's last impulse – $5536.1. On the 8-hour timeframe and the 4-hour timeframe, the price situation is similar to the 2-hour timeframe. The initial level of the seller's last impulse is $5568. 50% of the seller's last impulse – $5536.1. Thus, in the range of $5577.4 - $5568 there is a context for searching for sales on the daily, 8-hour, 4-hour and 2-hour timeframes . Selling Strategy: Seller protection levels $5577.4 or $5568. Seller protection 50% of last impulse - $5536.1 Buying Strategy: When the price reaches the range of $5328 - $5436, look for patterns for purchases. If the buyer returns the price above $5577.4 and protects this level. by AlexeyWolfUpdated 0
SPx Amid Focus on Fed Decision, ADP Jobs Report, & Meta Earning Stock Index Futures Rise as Focus Shifts to Fed, U.S. ADP Jobs Report, and Meta Earnings S&P 500 Analysis: Consolidation Expected Today The market is poised for potential volatility as traders await the Federal Reserve's rate decision, the U.S. ADP jobs report, and Meta's earnings. The S&P 500 is expected to consolidate today, with key movements influenced by these events. Bullish Scenario: If the price remains stable above 5,491, it is likely to reach 5,512. Breaking above this level could push the price further to 5,549. Bearish Scenario: A reversal and stabilization below 5,491 could lead to a decline towards 5,460. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5,491 - Resistance Levels: 5,512, 5,525, 5,549 - Support Levels: 5,460, 5,438, 5,409 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support level at 5,460 and the resistance level at 5,550.Longby SroshMayi7