SP500FT trade ideas
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,780.17
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,689.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,973.58
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 30, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index has undergone considerable price fluctuations during the trading sessions of this week, successfully reaching a critical target at the Mean Support level of 5800. Presently, the index is exhibiting an upward trend with a focus on the retest of the Inner Index Dip at 5955 and Key Resistance at 5965. Furthermore, additional significant levels have been identified, including the Next#1 Outer Index Rally at 6073, Key Resistance at 6150, and the Next#2 Outer Index Rally at 6235. Conversely, there is a potential for the index prices to downfall aiming to retest Mean Support 5800 and to complete the Outer Index Dip, noted at 5730.
SPX500 H1 | Heading into an overlap resistanceSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,967.36 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 6,012.00 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 5,909.96 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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S&P turns flat after bouncing off lows
The S&P 500, which ended Friday's session flat, has turned flat in today's session as well, after bouncing back from its earlier lows on reports that the US and Chinese leaders will meet to discuss trade after the two sides accused each other of violating their recent trade deal.
June could be a more challenging month for stocks if trade uncertainty persists, following what had been a strong May for global equities—marking their best monthly performance since November 2023. Much of that rally was driven by optimism that the worst of the US tariff threats had passed, encouraging investors to return to risk assets. However, any sense of calm was quickly disrupted after in the last few days, when Trump announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. This move has reignited concerns about a potential resurgence of trade tensions, adding to the already growing list of market risks. On top of that, investors are also bracing for political gridlock in Washington, as lawmakers prepare to negotiate a sweeping tax and spending bill amid escalating concerns about US government debt. With the debt ceiling deadline approaching, June could bring renewed market volatility, casting a cloud over the near-term S&P 500 outlook.
From a technical point of view, the trend is bullish but the doji candles in the last few trading sessions suggest that the momentum is waning and that a bit of a pullback could be on the cards.
Resistance at 5,900 was being tested at the time of writing. A daily close above this level would be a bullish outcome, in which case a run towards last week's high near 6,000 could be on the cards.
However, if resistance at 5,900 holds, then a potential drop to the next support area around 5787 would be the more likely outcome first. Further support is seen between 5,670 to 5,695.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
US500 potential buyUS500 is setting up for a classic Wyckoff spring. This is a high probability set up with high risk to reward (5R+)
Here is what needs to happen
For situations 1 and 2,
a. price should break blue support (traps sellers and shakes out weak hands)
b. price should then close above any of the 2 blue supports with high volume
c. enter at the close of that bar or retest of the blue line
d. T.P @ recent high.
What do you think? how would you approach this better?
SPY update for todayHello everyone,
Not much new to update today, the main highlight is that the market has broken down from the trendline. This is definitely something to take note of. However, today’s move came with relatively low volume, which suggests that while price dropped significantly, there wasn’t a lot of strength behind the move.
This reminds us of a key principle in trading: the market can do whatever it wants. It may look bullish today and turn bearish tomorrow. So always react to what the market is showing you, not just what you expect it to do. Easier said than done, I know, but it's essential.
Looking ahead, this potential pullback could present better entry opportunities, assuming the market doesn’t flip into a full bearish meltdown. For now, we need to give the market some room to breathe, observe how it reacts at key levels, and stay patient for the right setup.
Remember: we're still in a broadly bullish environment. So let’s wait for strong reactions at the right price points before jumping in.
US & Global Market Breakdown | Profits, Losses & Bearish TradesIn this video, I break down the current state of the US and global economy, and why I believe we’re heading into a bearish phase.
📉 Fundamentals:
I cover the key macroeconomic factors influencing the markets — including Trump’s proposed new tariffs, slowing GDP growth, and ongoing supply chain constraints. These all point toward increasing pressure on the global economy.
📊 Technical Analysis:
I go over the major indexes and highlight their recent behavior. We’ve seen reactions from resistance levels, contraction patterns forming, and a significant volume dry-up — followed by today’s spike in volume, which occurred right at resistance. These are potential signs that the market may be shifting toward a bearish trend.
That said, we could still just be witnessing a deeper pullback within a longer-term uptrend. Markets are unpredictable, and no one knows for sure — which is why it’s important to always do your due diligence.
💰 I also review the profits and losses I’ve taken on recent bullish trades, and why I’ve now positioned myself in select short opportunities based on what I’m seeing.
If I’m sharing this, it’s because I’m personally investing my capital based on my conviction — so always use your own judgment and risk management when making decisions.
If you found value in the breakdown, leave a like, comment, and subscribe for more timely updates.
Structure Over Sentiment: Multi-Asset View into Month-End📊 Structure Over Sentiment: Multi-Asset View into Month-End | May 30, 2025
This isn’t a crash. This isn’t a rally. This is digestion.
The multi-asset view tells the real story — and it's not as chaotic as it looks.
🔍 What the Chart Shows:
This correlation lens plots key macro and market drivers YTD:
🟣 Gold (XAUUSD): Leading with +24.71% — this is the quiet macro bid no one’s talking about
🟢 Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Holding +8.47% — volatile, but still showing risk appetite
🔴 10Y Yield (US10Y): Up +5.31% — signalling rates peaking
🟠 Nasdaq (NDX): Nearly flat, -0.36% — NVDA strength masking internal rotation
🔵 S&P 500 (SPX): -2.32% — structurally fine, just not euphoric
🔵 Dow (DJA): -5.91% — lagging, cyclical drag
🔵 Russell 2000 (RTY): -13.60% — small caps under pressure, risk-on caution flag
🟣 Dollar Index (DXY): -6.44% — fading after a strong Q1
🟢 Oil (WTIUSD): -10.26% — no inflation panic here
🧠 Key Insight:
Despite the tariff headlines, sticky PCE, and conflicting narratives — the market remains internally consistent.
Gold is leading
Yields are rising but not sharply
Bitcoin is positive
Equities are flat-to-negative
Oil is weak
Dollar is fading
This is classic late-cycle digestion, not a crisis.
🛡️ Titan Mindset Check-In:
Don’t get lost in single headlines
Follow structure, not speculation
Let leaders lead (NVDA, Gold, BTC)
Protect equity when breath narrows
Zoom out, reduce noise, trade the curve — not the chaos
📍“Volatility isn’t risk. Misinterpretation is.”
Take Profits, Not Chances.
#MultiAssetView #StructureOverShock #TitanProtect #SPX #NDX #BTC #Gold #DXY #WTI #US10Y #MacroFlow #MarketMindset #LateCycleSignals #DigestDontPanic
S&P 500 at Key Inflection Zone: Golden Pocket vs. Breakdown RiskPrice is hovering around the 0.618 Fib retracement and the 200-day MA — Bulls' eye 6.5% to ATH, Bears target a -16% drop.
Critical decision point ahead.
If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg.
S&P 500 (SPX) multi-decade chart (2-week time frame), the chart overlays key historical highs, major corrections, and media sentiment headlines—all critical for a macro-technical assessment. Below is an expert-level breakdown integrating price action, moving averages, sentiment analysis, and cyclical behavior.
📊 Macro Technical Assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX)
🟢 Trend Analysis (1973–2025)
The chart illustrates a long-term secular uptrend, anchored by consistent support above the 200-period moving average (blue line) and a decades-long upward-sloping trendline (green).
Despite several deep corrections (marked in red boxes), the trend has always reverted to and eventually bounced above the 200 MA—a key signal of structural strength.
The current price is well above the MA200 but appears extended, similar to other historical peaks (e.g., 2000, 2007, and 2021–2022).
🔻 Historical Bear Market Corrections (Measured from Highs):
Year Peak-to-Trough Decline Event
1973–74 -51.9% Oil embargo, stagflation
1987 -37% Black Monday
2000–2002 -49% Dot-com bubble burst
2007–2009 -57% Global Financial Crisis
2020 -35% COVID crash
2022 -27% Fed tightening, inflation spike
2025 (so far) -21% Ongoing correction from all-time high
Each correction marked a reversion to or below the MA200, before initiating a fresh long-term leg up.
🧠 Psychological Sentiment Integration (Text Boxes & Headlines)
📰 Headlines & Crowd Sentiment Patterns
2000-2002: Dot-com euphoria followed by collapse—media and public overconfidence.
2007–2008: Financial crisis—major media disbelief in downside risk until it materialized.
2020–2022: Post-COVID rally labeled as “most hated in history” – a contrarian bullish signal.
2025: Present headlines again show skepticism despite all-time highs – echoing 2020 sentiment.
📌 Insight: The presence of bearish headlines at highs often indicates a disbelief rally, which historically results in short-term corrections but long-term gains if fundamentals catch up.
🔄 Current Price Context (2025)
Current Pullback: -21% from the recent ATH.
Support levels to watch:
MA200 (approx. 4,100–4,300 zone) – historically strong buy zone.
Trendline support dating back to the 1980s (~4,600).
The market is mid-correction, with a structure resembling 2000 or 2022, but not yet as deep.
📉 Bear Market Probability in 2025?
The current pullback is less severe than historical bear markets.
The media pessimism and overextension from MA200 could still trigger deeper corrections.
However, until the trendline and MA200 are broken decisively, this remains a correction in a bull market.
🔎 Key Takeaways
✅ Bullish Long-Term Signals:
Decades of higher highs/lows.
Strong respect for MA200 as dynamic support.
Recurring recoveries after panic-driven declines.
⚠️ Bearish Short-to-Mid-Term Risks:
Extended rally with rising skepticism (echoes of 2000/2007).
21% pullback already in place, which could deepen.
Failure to hold 4,600–4,300 range may open the door to full bear market correction (30–40%).
🧭 Strategic Outlook
Timeframe Bias Reason
Short-term (1–3 months) ⚠️ Neutral-to-bearish Ongoing correction phase, sentiment
bearish, overextension unwinding
Mid-term (6–12 months) 🟡 Cautiously bullish If trendline + MA200 hold, dip-buying
opportunity like 2011, 2020
Long-term (1–3 years) ✅ Bullish Structural uptrend intact, secular bull
likely to resume
here's a technical assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Chart based solely on the image and technical levels shown:
🎯 Chart Summary:
Instrument: S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Key Levels: Fibonacci retracements, 200-day MA, support/resistance zones
Price Context: Currently in a pullback phase after attempting to reclaim the 2025 high (~6,151.74)
🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown
📏 Fibonacci Retracement Zones:
The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the recent swing low (~4,837.88) to the 2025 high (~6,151.74), measuring the key pullback levels.
Level Price Interpretation
0.236 ~5,120.12 Minor retracement – early warning
0.382 ~5,302.91 Medium support; possible bounce zone
0.5 ~5,455.40 Key support – equilibrium zone
0.618 ~5,612.28 Golden pocket – strong institutional interest
1.0 ~6,151.74 All-Time High (ATH) resistance
The price recently hit resistance near ATH and is pulling back toward the 50%-61.8% retracement zone, which is technically the "golden zone" for potential bullish reversal.
📉 Moving Average – 200-Day MA:
The blue line on the chart indicates the 200-day moving average (~5,612).
Price is sitting right on this MA, and this is crucial. The 200MA is one of the most respected institutional indicators—a breakdown below it could accelerate selling.
If price holds above this level, we may see renewed bullish momentum.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Profile
Upside potential: +6.5% toward ATH (~6,151)
Downside risk: -16% toward retracement lows (~5,120 and lower)
This sets up a skewed risk profile: unless strong buying steps in soon, the downside is significantly larger than the remaining upside.
🧭 Market Sentiment and Probability Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario (6.5% Upside):
Holding the 200MA + 0.618 Fib (~5,612) confirms this level as dynamic support.
This could attract dip buyers and institutional re-entry, pushing toward the ATH.
If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg.
🚨 Bearish Scenario (-16% Downside):
If price loses the 200MA and falls through Fib 0.5 and 0.382, then a move toward 5,120 or even sub-5,000 becomes likely.
Break of structure = short-term trend change. A bearish engulfing candle or momentum rejection will confirm this shift.
🧠 Expert Insight:
This setup represents a technical inflection point. The confluence of:
Fibonacci golden zone (0.5–0.618),
200-day MA support,
and recent ATH rejection
...makes this a critical decision zone for the S&P 500.
Traders should watch volume, macro catalysts, and market breadth indicators closely over the next few sessions. If buyers step in here with conviction, a short-term rally is plausible. However, a clean break below these technical levels could open the door for a multi-week correction.
US500 Long TermBased on the technicals I'd be expecting US500 and other indices (US30, NAS100) to turn bearish again, at least for a short while. US500 has a key level of liquidity at 5577 which has to be swept before any major bulls return. Once that level is taken out, it depends on how the fundamental will develop and we can either expect the bears to continue the sell off or we may see the top 3 indices reach new ATHs.
SPX AND WHAT WE STAND TO GAIN OR LOSE!⚡ Hey hey, hope all is well. Don't have too much time right now so just want to get a quick idea out, we'll keep this short and concise, thank you.
⚡ First thing's first, we're gonna take a quick Big picture look at our SP:SPX chart for today and we can take a look back on our ascending channel which helped propel us for most of 2024 into 2025 before we finally exited that channel in February and lost our 200 EMA.
⚡ The 200 EMA was our main tool for the last year or so, keeping above that gave traders and investors the confidence to keep things pushing and essentially kept the market on this wave which is simply rode up, everyone was making money and that money was going back into more investments further propelling things before we saw our SP:SPX hit an all time high in February at $6,200.
⚡ So we had the 200 EMA below us, we had much of the market making money, and with trump entering office, much of the market was understandably optimistic and things we're continuing pretty strong January through into February. We then had trump make his remarks on a possible recession and we started getting talks on tariffs which understandably prompted much of the market and market makers to take profits and we sort of got this reversal which I spoke more on in a previous idea which I'll link below for reference:
⚡ Before I continue and as a disclosure, none of this is meant to be taken in a political stance or with any bias, like I said, we're simply looking at the facts and the technical, that's all that matters.
⚡ To continue on, as the referenced idea represents, once that news hit the market sentiment shifted and we can see the descending channel that ensued with that which also prompted us to lose our 200 EMA, something we haven't seen happen since 2023 on the daily chart which puts us in a precarious position.
⚡ The market's basically lost two advantages. The last year or so that 200 EMA kept below the chart never converging which helped bulls alongside our ascending channel which was a significant component in this push for the all-time-high (ATH). So we 've basically lost both of those advantages which is what helped bulls climb so much ground the last year or so.
⚡ We already know the 200 EMA crossover is important but now it'll likely create a broader impact now that we have no channel to look. Instead, we'll likely see a number of traders more than likely looking out for those Bullish and Bearish crossover's for making plays which is already happening.
⚡ If we look at the beginning of April for example where we had that first 200 EMA crossover we can see just how dramatic the sell-off was, investors just weren't sure how far things we're going to go and once we got another crossover and regained that 200 EMA the buy-in action, volume was also dramatic signifying a market that's being led by sentiment rather than technical which again was the main driver for us the last year or so.
⚡ That being said technical of course is still playing a role, but we're seeing sentiment drive price action and being taken into account a lot more the last few weeks, especially with everything going on with Trump and the tariff war we had which put much of the market and investors on edge trying to figure out whether or not things we're looking optimistic or not for the market before China and the US we're able to ultimately come to an agreement helping put many minds at ease.
⚡ Next few weeks I'll be watching that 200 EMA to see if we get a bearish crossover or if we can avoid that and regain ground to which I'll be looking to my Fib. chart for as referenced below:
⚡ Next is a descending channel I've added to the daily chart which hopefully doesn't come into play again.
⚡ Can already see how that descending channel impacted us the second tiem around in April so main thing is that we avoid losing that 200 EMA again, and we keep away from that descending channel else we'll more than likely get dragged down further if we we're to reenter that channel much like we saw happen with the sell-off in April.
⚡ Have to run but just wanted to give quick technical look at our big picture idea here for the $SP:SPX. Current goal is to see a retest of $5,900 and avoid another convergence with that 200 EMA on the daily else we risk losing our footing and reversing.
⚡ As always, thanks so much for all the support, appreciate you all and wishing all the best till next. Don't just make it a good day, make it a great one.
Best regards,
~ Rock'
Major LowI'm buying puts expiring on October 31st, All Hallow's Eve.
I'll give price room to keep melting up to 666 at the farthest, that is my stop level. If we breach that price, then just know that tech is unstoppable and Artificial Intelligence is the Mark of the Beast.
If the market doesn't drop here, then the sky is the limit.
Price Action and Technical Analysis says I should BUY S&P 500!!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
www.tradingview.com
Up again for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD retested the 4H FVG once more and made a (corrective) move down into the Daily BPR. This was exactly the move I've predicted and I hope you took some value from it.
Now price rejected from the Daily BPR so next week we could see this pair go up again to the higher Daily FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a bullish change in orderflow and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave