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SPX: Dead cat bounce or new highsAt the moment I am tracking a massive ending diagonal pattern for SPX that started Back in March 2020 after covid crash. The recent correction looks very oversold, and a bounce is due if not already started. I am looking at weekly RSI reading to get some resistance at 50 level if this is a dead cat bounce. Looking left, every time RSI fell around 40 level, it got resistance at 50 level and fell back down again, and price created a lower low. The price needs to get above 6000 to get confidence back to make another high. The resistance should come in at around 5900-5950 area. If it rejects, then probability of primary wave 4 will increase greatly and price could fall around 4800 in the second half of the year. If price can break through resistance and move up higher, then wave 3 will continue one more leg and the count will get updated to WXY with the last leg to complete the wave before the bigger correction. At the moment, staying cautiously long in spy to at least catch the b wave.
SP:SPXLong
by mukit1
11
S&P500 Index Goes 'DRILL BABY DRILL' Mode due to Tariffs BazookaThe Trump administration's aggressive use of tariffs — we termed at @PandorraResearch Team a "Tariff' Bazooka" approach due to their broad, unilateral application — has exerted significant downward pressure on the S&P 500 index through multiple channels. These include direct impacts on corporate profitability, heightened trade war risks, increased economic uncertainty, and deteriorating market sentiment. Direct Impact on Corporate Earnings Tariffs raise costs for U.S. firms reliant on imported inputs, forcing them to either absorb reduced profit margins or pass costs to consumers. For example, intermediate goods like steel and aluminum—key inputs for manufacturing—face steep tariffs, squeezing industries from automakers to construction. Goldman Sachs estimates every 5-percentage-point increase in U.S. tariffs reduces S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) by 1–2%. The 2025 tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico, and China could lower EPS forecasts by 2–3%, directly eroding equity valuations6. Additionally, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners (e.g., EU levies on bourbon and motorcycles) compound losses by shrinking export markets. Trade Escalation and Retaliation The EU’s threat to deploy its Anti-Coercion Instrument—a retaliatory tool designed to counter trade discrimination—could trigger a cycle of tit-for-tat measures. For instance, Canada and Mexico supply over 60% of U.S. steel and aluminum imports, and tariffs on these goods disrupt North American supply chains. Retaliation risks are particularly acute for S&P 500 companies with global exposure: 28% of S&P 500 revenues come from international markets, and prolonged trade wars could depress foreign sales. Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (FED website link added for learning purposes) surged to 740 points early in March 2025, nearing levels last seen during the 2020 pandemic. Historically, such spikes correlate with a 3% contraction in the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio as investors demand higher risk premiums. Trump’s inconsistent tariff implementation—delaying Mexican tariffs after negotiations but accelerating others—has exacerbated instability. Markets reacted sharply: the S&P 500 fell 3.1% in one week following tariff announcements, erasing all post-election gains. Recession Fears and Sector-Specific Pressures Tariffs have amplified concerns about a U.S. recession. By raising consumer prices and disrupting supply chains, they risk slowing economic growth—a fear reflected in the S&P 500’s 5% decline in fair value estimates under current tariff policies. Industries like technology (dependent on Chinese components) and agriculture (targeted by retaliatory tariffs) face acute pressure. For example, China’s tariffs on soybeans and pork disproportionately hurt rural economies, indirectly dragging down broader market sentiment. Long-Term Structural Risks Studies show tariffs fail to achieve their stated goals. MIT research found Trump’s 2018 steel tariffs did not revive U.S. steel employment but caused job losses in downstream sectors8. Similarly, the 2025 tariffs risk accelerating economic decoupling, as firms diversify supply chains away from the U.S. to avoid tariff risks. This structural shift could permanently reduce the competitiveness of S&P 500 multinationals. Conclusion In summary, Trump’s tariff strategy has destabilized equity markets by undermining corporate profits, provoking retaliation, and fueling macroeconomic uncertainty. Overall we still at @PandorraResearch Team are Bearishly calling on further S&P 500 Index opportunities with further possible cascading consequences. The S&P 500’s recent slump reflects investor recognition that tariffs act as a tax on growth—one with cascading consequences for both domestic industries and global trade dynamics. -- Best 'Drill Baby, Drill' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CBOE:SPX
by PandorraResearch
S&P500: Bottom of 2 year Channel. Target 6900.S&P500 is oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 27.644, MACD = -113.480, ADX = 60.232) as the price didn't only cross under the 1D MA200 but is also almost at the bottom of the 2 year Channel Up. In the meantime, the price reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level while the 1D MACD touched its LH trendline. The last time all those conditions were met at the same time was on the October 30th 2023 Low. What followed was a massive rally to the -0.618 Fib extension before the next 1D MA50 pullback. This is a unique opportunity to buy and aim for the -0.618 Fib (TP = 6,900). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
2
$SPX - Trading Levels for March 13 2025 Alright, y’all. We are dangling, unsupported underneath the 200DMA and that Bear Gap. I am trading cautiously today because inflation data days I tend to make a lot of mistakes. 35EMA - this level is a BEAST. We were unable to get above it yesterday. Trace it back 3 weeks and you’ll see it’s been there every time to push us back lower. I will be looking to the outer spreads and even then I might push it out a little. If and when I take a position I will update it here. GL, y’all.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Century-Old SPX Channel Signals Crucial Market Inflection1. Long-term Channel: The SPX has been following a clearly defined logarithmic trend channel, with highs and lows confined within this channel for nearly a century. 2. Current Price Action (2025): o The index recently broke through the upper bound of the historical channel in 2024. o It's retraced back through the channel in March 2025. 3. Historical Reference Points: o Significant points noted are the 1929 market crash, the 1932 market low, and subsequent recoveries and corrections. o The marked reference points (1929, 1932, 1942, 2000, 2009, 2020, 2022, and 2024) show pivotal moments where the price interacted meaningfully with this long-term channel. Key Observations and Considerations: • Logarithmic Scale: o This emphasizes percentage changes rather than absolute values, clearly showing the growth pattern and highlighting significant deviations from average trend growth. • Long-term Perspective: o For investors, this signals caution in the near-term, suggesting potential further downside. o From a longer-term perspective, significant pullbacks within this historical channel have historically provided strong opportunities for long-term investment.
SP:SPX
by PrestigeWorldwideTradingCo
S&P 500 at a crossroads: breakout or fake move?The S&P 500 is stuck in a two day old descending triangle pattern making it a tricky setup after an aggressive sell off. A clean break below could lead to a drop towards 5549 with a further 1.6 percent decline. However there’s also the chance of a false breakdown followed by a rebound which could turn this into a fake move. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
THINKMARKETS:SPX500Short
by ThinkMarkets
S&P INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5714The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, down from 3.7% in January and slightly below the expected 3.3%. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 3.4% annually, also lower than the 3.8% recorded in January. On a monthly basis, the PPI remained unchanged, while the core PPI saw a slight 0.1% decline. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5714 Resistance Level 2: 5770 Resistance Level 3: 5805 Support Level 1: 5523 Support Level 2: 5480 Support Level 3: 5300 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
A Pause in the Slaughter HouseAfter the brutal decline we witnessed for the last few days, it looks like the SP500 has found a floor. The markets never move in a straight line. The VIX reached a level above 29, which signals high volatility and lower prices. The small pauses it took were just small bounces used by the market to keep selling. Yesterday we say a change in the trend of the VIX. In the Madrid Symbol Display indicator we see there was a meaningful change in the trend of the fear Index, It broke its trend at 27 to settle at 24. We're far from being out of the woods, specially considering that Trump is not backing off from his tariffs, and he disregarded the stock market as his performance gauge like he used to do during his first term, as well as the unemployment levels. His arguments are "it's going to cause a little disturbance", and "they're globalist companies that ripped off the US". Well those were not arguments he used during Trump v.1. Tesla plummeted, and we saw it coming when the insiders dumped stock. Elon hasn't dumped his stock, and he's the major shareholder of Tesla share, but we have seen the decline, and since this is one of the major index contributors, it has dragged down the market. We have seen declines also in crypto, chip manufacturers, etc. So it's not only Tesla, the debate of whether the boycott and/or the market environment have contributed to its decline is another story that has to be addressed separately. Bottom line, the market seems to get get ready for a "Dead Cat Bounce", and probably taking the index to the "Back to Normal" sentiment. Be aware that the momentum indicators are pointing down, and so far, this is not going to be a declared uptrend. The geopolitical environment and the tariffs are not gone, so the initial triggers are still active, and there's no reason to think this is going to change in the short term. We can say that a relief rally is in the making, and as long as the VIX is kept in check under the 24ish level we can take it as a truce to rebalance portfolios and hedge positions. SPX Target 5800.
SP:SPXShort
by Madrid
7
S&P 500 Index, Gold, and BitcoinToday, I’m analyzing the weekly charts of the S&P 500 Index, Gold, and Bitcoin. Notice anything interesting? 🤔 Since late 2022, these assets have been moving in sync, showing an unusually strong correlation. At times, it almost feels like they’re behaving as a single market. But spotting these connections provides valuable insights we can use to our advantage. One chart that stands out is the S&P 500 Index, particularly its rebound from the dual Fibonacci support zone around $5520. This is a critical level, and as long as it holds, both Bitcoin and Gold are likely to maintain their upward momentum. For now, the overall market sentiment remains bullish, and this trend could continue throughout the year. 🚀
SP:SPXLong
by CryptoPAMM
Bearish Darvas Box? Here’s How I’m Trading It...Bearish Darvas Box? Here’s How I’m Trading It | SPX Market Analysis 13 Mar 2025 The market is stuck on repeat, playing the same song over and over. Drop, pause, drop, pause—sideways, down, sideways, down. This looks very much like a bearish Darvas box pattern. And guess what? We nailed it (yesterday). 📌 SPX continues to stair-step lower, just as we anticipated. 📌 5650 remains a rock-solid resistance level—confirmed by Gamma Exposure. 📌 On Monday, we expected a sideways stall—and we got exactly that. With this predictable rhythm, we locked in another live zero-day trade during my Fast Forward Mentorship call, hitting max profit by the end of the day. Until a breakout forces a change, I’ll keep stacking bearish trades, watching pulse bars, and waiting for the next clean setup. Viva la profits! --- Deeper Dive Analysis: At this point, the market feels like it’s reading from a script—stair-step down, stall, stair-step down again. And frankly? I’m not complaining. 📌 The Setup – Another Day, Another Bearish Move From Monday’s analysis, we expected this exact movement—SPX meandering sideways after a drop, before setting up the next move. 5650 remains resistance, confirmed by Gamma Exposure. 5700 is the key level before I even think about bullish setups. If we break lower, 5255 is still the daily breakdown target. 📌 The Trade – Zero-Day Profits, Executed to Perfection With the market following our expected pattern, I took full advantage: ✅ Live zero-day trade executed during my Fast Forward Mentorship call. (see main blog for walkthrough) ✅ Plan was simple—sell premium at the range high, let the market do the work. ✅ Expired at max profit by the end of the day. This is what happens when you trade with structure—no guessing, no chasing, just following the game plan and letting the market pay you. 📌 What’s Next? Playing the Game Until It Changes Until SPX decides to break out, I’ll continue to: Look for bearish entries, pulse bars, and breakouts. Delay bullish plays until we clear 5700. Stay patient and let the profits stack up. Because when you have a system that works, you don’t need to force the market—just follow its lead. Viva la profits! --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The Darvas Box Trading Strategy was created in the 1950s by a professional ballroom dancer who turned $25,000 into $2.25 million in 18 months—all while travelling the world. 💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, the best traders aren’t even traders at first—but they know how to follow a system that works.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
US500 Is Bullish! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 5,568.9. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5,791.3 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by SignalProvider
2
Trading Psychology or Technical Analysis—When Mind Meets MatterThere’s an age-old battle in trading that makes the bull vs. bear debate look like a game of pickleball (no offense, finance bros). It’s the clash between the traders who swear by their charts and the ones who insist it’s all about mindset. The technicals versus the psychologicals. Fibonacci retracements versus fear and greed. RSI versus your racing heart. TLDR? Both matter—a lot. But knowing when to trust your indicators, when to trust yourself, and when to blend both is the fine line that separates those who thrive from those who rage-quit. ⚔️ The Cold, Hard Numbers vs. the Soft, Messy Brain Think of technical analysis as your sometimes inaccurate GPS in trading. It’s structured, predictable, and gives you clear entry and exit points—until it doesn’t. Because markets, much like a GPS in a tunnel, don’t always cooperate. That’s where psychology creeps in. Your mind is the ultimate trading algorithm, but it’s often running outdated software. Fear of missing out? That’s just your brain throwing a tantrum. Revenge trading? A glitch in emotional processing. Overconfidence after three wins in a row? Well done, you genius. Technical analysis gives you signals, but trading psychology determines how you act on them. 🤷‍♂️ When the Chart Says One Thing, and Your Brain Says Another Picture this: You’ve mapped out the perfect setup. The moving averages align, volume confirms the breakout, and everything screams BUY . But then your brain whispers, What if it reverses? What if this is a trap? What if I’m about to donate my account balance to the market gods? You hesitate. The price moves without you. Now, frustration kicks in, and suddenly, you’re clicking BUY at the worst possible moment—just in time for a pullback. Sometimes, the best trade is the one you don’t take. And sometimes, trusting the chart over your overthinking brain is the only way forward. 🔥 The Big Guys and Their Choices Legendary investors have picked their sides in this debate. Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital, has long been a big believer in market psychology. He argues that understanding investor sentiment is more valuable than any chart pattern because markets are driven by cycles of greed and fear. On the other hand, Paul Tudor Jones—one of the greatest traders of all time—leans on technicals, famously saying, “The whole trick in investing is: ‘How do I keep from losing everything?’ If you use the 200-day moving average rule, you get out. You play defense.” Both approaches work. The question is: Are you the type who deciphers market mood swings, or do you trust that a well-placed moving average will tell you when to cut and run? 🌀 Overtrading: The Technical Trap and the Psychological Spiral Overtrading usually starts with a good trade, a small win, and a rush of dopamine that convinces you you’ve cracked the code. So, you take another trade. Then another. And before you know it, you’re firing off entries like a caffeinated gamer, except your PnL is the one taking the damage. Technical traders fall into this trap because they see too many setups. Every candlestick pattern, every little bounce, every “potential” breakout becomes a reason to trade. Psychological traders, on the other hand, may overtrade out of boredom, frustration, or the need to “make back” losses. The result? An emotional rollercoaster that ends with an account balance you don’t want to check the next morning. The fix? Trade selectively. The best setups don’t come every five minutes, and forcing trades is like forcing a bad joke—it just doesn’t land. 💪 Fear, Greed, and the Art of Holding Your Ground Every trader knows the feeling: You’re in profit, but instead of letting the trade play out, you close early because profit is profit, right? Wrong. Fear of losing profits is what keeps traders from maximizing their wins. And greed—the evil twin of fear—is what makes traders hold losing trades, hoping for a miracle. It’s the classic “let winners run, cut losers short” rule in reverse. Technical traders know where their stops and targets are. The problem? They often ignore them when emotions take over. Psychological traders “feel” the market but get crushed when that gut feeling betrays them. The best traders find the balance—using technicals to set logical targets and psychology to actually stick to the plan. 🤝 The Solution? A System That Checks Both Boxes So, what’s the verdict? Do you put matter over mind or mind over matter? The truth is, great traders do both. They develop strategies based on technicals but manage execution with discipline. They respect risk management rules not just because the chart says so, but because they know how destructive emotions can be. Here’s what the best do differently: ✅ They journal trades —not just the setups but how they felt during the trade. ✅ They stick to a trading plan so they can trust their system over impulse. ✅ They set rules that help them to properly bounce back from losses . ✅ They know the value of knowledge and never stop learning. (We’ve got you covered here, too. Go check the Top Trading Books if you’re a trader and stop by the Top Books on Investing if you’re an investor). 💚 Final Thoughts: Mind and Market in Harmony In the end, trading is never just one or the other. It’s not pure math, and it’s not pure mindset. It’s a dance between structure and instinct, strategy and psychology. The ones who get it right aren’t just great at reading charts—they’re great at reading themselves.
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
20
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5915.Colleagues, I was waiting for the price to reach the support area of 5656, because the big corrective wave “IV” should end soon. I am still looking for a long entry point. I expect that wave “IV” has either ended or will soon end its downward movement in the 5656 area and we will see the beginning of an upward wave. I expect that the first target is the resistance area of 5915. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
9
Understanding Trump: chapter 3 - WAR and Waste of Defense BudgetWAR and Waste of Defense Budget The United States operates more than 750 military bases worldwide and spends $886 billion annually on defense. It is the world's largest military spender. Over the past 50 years, the U.S. has engaged in numerous wars around the world, pouring an enormous amount of money into conflicts. War is not just a military operation; it requires an overwhelming amount of financial resources. Looking at history, the biggest reason for the downfall of past empires was territorial expansion, endless wars, and the increasing cost of warfare. The Roman Empire, Spain, and Britain all followed the same pattern. They continuously fought wars, drained their national resources, and eventually collapsed. When looking at America's recent wars, it seems to be heading in a similar direction. U.S. War Spending Over the Last 50 Years Gulf War (1990–1991): $61 billion Somalia Civil War Intervention (1992–1994): $1.4 billion Bosnian War Intervention (1995): $3 billion Kosovo War Intervention (1999): $5 billion Afghanistan War (2001–2021): $2.3 trillion Iraq War (2003–2011): $1.9 trillion Libya Military Intervention (2011): $1 billion Syria Civil War Intervention (2014–present): $54 billion Yemen Civil War Support (2015–present): $5 billion Ukraine War Support (2022–present): $113 billion (as of 2024) This is all the money the U.S. has spent on wars in recent years. Considering that the Soviet Union collapsed after just one war in Afghanistan, it's quite remarkable that the U.S. has been able to engage in multiple wars and still sustain itself. In the past, the U.S. was considered the world's police force. However, when looking at the wars listed above, not many of them resulted in positive outcomes. Of course, if the U.S. had not actively intervened, there would have been far more ethnic conflicts, ideological wars, and massacres around the world. In fact, the free trade system that emerged after World War II was only possible because of U.S. naval dominance. Just like how we take the air we breathe for granted, if the U.S. had not been a dominant global power, international trade would have faced numerous problems and economic inefficiencies. However, over the past 50 years, has the U.S's war campaigns wasn't successfully Looking at wars like Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, the U.S. spent enormous amounts of money, but the results were far from satisfactory. They justified these wars by claiming to spread democracy and overthrow dictatorships, yet despite the sacrifices of many American soldiers, the post-war situations in these countries remained chaotic. What’s Next for the U.S.? Trump’s main goal seems to be reducing war spending. This is an unfortunate news for Ukraine, but for the U.S., it is a strategic move to prevent itself from collapsing like Britain or the Roman Empire due to excessive military spending. From my perspective, Trump is not aiming to not really reduce U.S. military presence around the world, but rather to maintain influence while making other countries pay more. And eventually, the U.S. may choose not to engage in future wars. His push for increased defense spending from NATO and Asian allies is part of this strategy.
SP:SPX
by hcinteractivegames