Potential H&S FormingPotential head and shoulders. If the right shoulder forms then it looks set to take us down to 3950 by mid-May.Shortby Corrupt_EconomyUpdated 6
Whats next to come for $SPXA little thought i have regarding SPX. I believe we have topped. The electoral process in the US paired with a growing expectation regarding a rate cut may be the two major indicators. 2 pro market results (maga win and rate cut) may be the top signal we need.Shortby wpera4
SPX sell off next weekThe chart is of the US 500 (S&P 500) on a 4-hour timeframe, displaying a recent upward trend followed by a strong bearish signal. The price has reached an overbought condition, indicated by the oscillator at the bottom of the chart, and this condition is confirmed by the "ND" (No Demand) and "UT" (UpThrust) signals from Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from the recent high to low, highlighting potential pullback levels. The chart suggests that the price might soon pull back to these levels, specifically around the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels, which are significant areas of resistance. Traders should watch for additional bearish signals at these levels to confirm the continuation of the move down. Once confirmed, it is expected that the price will fail to maintain higher levels and will begin to decline, targeting lower Fibonacci extension levels such as 127.2% and 161.8%. This strategy involves waiting for the price to pull back to the identified Fibonacci levels and then entering a short position after bearish confirmation, with stop losses set above the recent high to protect against unexpected moves. The anticipated move down is depicted by the blue arrows, indicating a likely path for the price to follow as it declines.Shortby SergienkoDaniel1
S&P Bulls Defy Expectations; New Historical HighLast week, the bulls did something remarkable. At the start of the week, there was a clear bearish reversal pattern forming on the daily chart. Despite being a believer in the bulls (given the strength of the weekly chart), I was still quite certain that sellers would at least be able to take down the weak low from the last week of June (SPX 5,448). However, instead of breaking through, the sellers made only a weak attempt on Monday. After a brief pause, the market rallied, breaking through all previous highs. It is hard to grasp such a change in sentiment, especially since there was nothing particularly surprising in the economic data or the FOMC announcements. Sometimes, it seems that the market itself is confused, and the best we can do is observe its behavior day by day and make quick adjustments to our strategy. There was absolutely no clear reason behind the sell-off on Friday the 28th (presidential debates? really???), but we had to trust price action and let it shape our strategy. Only now can we conclude that it was a “fake” weakness (actually, we already started suspecting it on Tuesday). More likely, it was temporary confusion in the market, caused by many contradicting political and economic signals. The current outlook is bullish. The market has set a new high, and the majority of sectors ended the week strong (see Market Inner Strength Index). The only possible warning is that the weekly RSI is approaching the overbought condition. The last time this happened (at the end of March), it triggered a weekly consolidation, but again, nothing is certain. P.S. this week is heavily packed with economic data releases. Also, banks report on Friday. Things might change really fast Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts. Longby hermes_trismeUpdated 0
Long the 76 retracement. SPX just hit major resistance. Biggest resistance of the year. It is possible this selling has more momentum. However, if it is just a dip we'd be near the end and if this is a bear trap the rally can be exceptional after breaking it. High RR spot long here. Total rug risk if stop breaks. Be disciplined. Longby holeyprofitUpdated 9
S&P regains yesterday's lossesUS stock indices were rallying sharply into the weekend. This followed yesterday’s extraordinary session which saw large losses for tech stocks, but a huge shift into domestically focused mid-caps. This change in fortunes was borne out by the closing numbers which saw the NASDAQ 100 end 2% lower, while the Russell 2000 jumped 3.6%. The tech-led sell-off came just a day after the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed out at fresh all-time highs. What was particularly interesting is that it came as the latest US inflation update showed Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, at its lowest level since April 2021. Headline CPI also fell unexpectedly, and is now back to 3.0%, where it was one year ago. These latest releases reinforce the improvement seen in Core PCE just a few weeks ago. This fell to 2.6% and is closing in on the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Bond prices soared as yields fell sharply, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September shot up. In fact, the CME’s FedWatch Tool is now pricing in a decent chance of three 25 basis point rate cuts before year-end. All well and good. After all, the risk for equities was that inflation came in hotter-than-expected, wasn’t it? Apparently not. After a respectful pause, investors dumped all those tech high-flyers together with anything that had rallied recently on an association with generative AI. But this wasn’t an all-out equity market rout. Instead, money poured into the US mid-caps. This reallocation meant that volatility, as measured by the VIX, despite a largish high-low swing, ended the day little-changed. The question now is whether this rotation is set to continue, or if yesterday’s tech sell-off has blown enough froth off the sector to tempt in fresh buyers? There are certainly no signs of panic, although yesterday’s price action could still prove to be the opening shot in a round of profit-taking that sees the major indices pull back significantly. The S&P is currently trading just shy of 5,640 – just above its record closing high from Wednesday. Let’s see if it can push on from here, or if turns lower as we head into the weekend. Yesterday’s CPI triggered an unusual move across US indices. Could the second quarter earnings season prove to be the catalyst for a bigger, and more protracted reversal? by TradeNation1
After all this excitement, market might just go flat for a whileTraders, it is with a heavy heart I bring to you forecasts of protracted ranges to come. Choppy and dull markets, lasting weeks or months. It's a sad forecast to make, but hopefully I am wrong. Here's the chain of logic for it. First we need to look at how markets typically recover from a bear move. Let's look at some of the main feature of the 2008 onwards recovery. After this move, if you knew to draw a simple retracement fib it would have helped to know where the bearish continuation would be and it would also let you know when it failed (Using the basic 76 rules I speak about all the time in day to day trading - I use it because it works really well). And once this was broken we'd head to the 1.61. Into that 1.61 level we would be totally rocketing. Then the market would go sideways for a long time. Finally turning into a 2 legged bear trap to retest the 1.27 of that fib set. So, basically - if you knew to draw that fib and knew a few simple rules around the fib levels, it covered everything you needed in the 2008 reversal. To the modern day. First thing I should clarify if the 2008 thing wasn't fluke and I am not charting all this up now with the benefit of flawless hindsight. This was something I was talking about in March of 2023 and at that time I actually covered most major recoveries since the 1920s. And since that time, we've developed all the key features. Now we're at the (All important) 1.61. Major decision levels come at 1.61s of big drops. Here's the most recent ones; From the 2019 drop, we head faked over the 1.61 and crashed (Very typical of a 1.61 rejection). In 2021 it broke the 1.61, used it as support and then ran all the way to the 2.20 before making the 2022 top (And if you seen me calling the top in real time - it was based on this fib). These are possible paths for the 1.61 test. Now we're at it we might be on the cusp of some real action. Be it a reversal or a break - a strong trend could come from a clean 1.61 decision. However, if we are in a classic 1.61 stall pattern, things are about to get really dull for a while. And just to give you context on what a 1.61 pin can look like, we were pinned in the 1.61 - 1.27 range for a full year previously. To make the range, bear trap and rally forecast is to make an aggressive bullish forecast. If this happened we'd likely trade over 7,000. But if this particular setup is about to happen - we're soon heading into a few months of chop. A few months being relatively optimistic. Could be longer. Might be chop, chop and chop for months. Not making a bear move but enticing bears in before it looks like it's stalled out. Getting far more people watching for the bear break - and then duly slicing them all up in the bear trap. Would make perfect sense from a charting and game theory type of perspective. Awesome bear and bull trades would come out of this, but it'd be a dull period first. One of those situations where the best thing most people can do is keep their money and be able to use it at a better time (Be you bull or bear). --- We can hope for the better trending conditions, and anything can happen at 1.61s - All I can say with a degree of confidence is a decision will be made here and it will be important. There are variations where this means strong up or strong down- both of these are easy to make money in, we have to be prepped for the conditions where nothing big happens and you have to be very patient or very tactical to survive. Beating protracted ranges is much easier if you have a sense we're heading into them before the fact. by holeyprofitUpdated 227
Understanding Volatility and How Traders Can Use It to Their BenWhat is Volatility? Volatility refers to the degree of variation in the price of a financial instrument over time. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. In simpler terms, volatility represents the amount of uncertainty or risk related to the size of changes in an asset’s value. High volatility means the price of the asset can change dramatically over a short period in either direction, while low volatility implies more stable prices with fewer and smaller fluctuations. Measuring Volatility Historical Volatility: This measures past market prices and their fluctuations over a specific time period. It is calculated by taking the standard deviation of returns over that period. Implied Volatility: This is derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (e.g., an option). It reflects the market's view of the likelihood of changes in a given security's price. Volatility Indexes: Tools like the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) track market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. How Traders Can Use Volatility to Their Benefit Identifying Trading Opportunities: High Volatility: Traders often seek high volatility environments as they provide more opportunities to capture significant price movements. This is particularly beneficial for day traders and short-term traders who can capitalize on rapid price changes. Low Volatility: During periods of low volatility, traders might focus on strategies like mean reversion, where they anticipate that prices will return to their average. Risk Management: Understanding volatility helps traders manage risk better. By using tools such as stop-loss orders, traders can limit potential losses during volatile periods. Position sizing based on volatility can help in adjusting exposure. For instance, smaller positions might be taken during high volatility to mitigate risk, while larger positions could be considered during stable periods. Volatility-Based Strategies: Options Trading: Traders can use volatility to their advantage in options trading. Strategies like straddles and strangles profit from significant moves in either direction, which are more likely during high volatility periods. Market Timing: Hedging: Traders can hedge their portfolios against volatility by taking positions in assets or derivatives that are negatively correlated with their current holdings. Volatility can provide insights into market sentiment and potential turning points. For instance, a spike in volatility often precedes significant market corrections or rallies. Traders can use technical indicators like Bollinger Bands, which adjust for volatility, to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the market. Conclusion Volatility is a fundamental concept in trading that can both pose risks and offer opportunities. By understanding and measuring volatility, traders can enhance their risk management practices, identify profitable trading opportunities, and employ volatility-based strategies to improve their overall trading performance. Whether dealing with high or low volatility environments, a keen awareness of market fluctuations is essential for successful trading. Education11:38by moneymagnateashUpdated 447
The current sell off really means little -bulls still in controlThe big sell yesterday caught a lot of people by surprise, but it really was an incredibly obvious resistance level we slammed into. During the rally it was simple to plan for resistance hitting somewhere 5630 with an overshoot. We first stalled at 5630, then spiked in the news move - and then slammed. Now - that might have been a blow off top and it might just be a dip. Now, the resistance was the 1.61 extension of the 2022 drop. I spoke about that in this post; We spiked it out by 20 points. If this is a legit top, it would make more sense for us to head fake and really run the stops. Or the bear move will be easy - as they famously are ... So this move is totally fair game even in a bear setup. And if we just hold the 76 retracement, it can be marked in as a standard technical correction. Breaking lower would impress me, but this bear move so far does not impress me. Shorted high into it, covered recently and am long the 76 supports. Longby holeyprofitUpdated 223
SP500 hit Target Set in 2022! Are we going down?Fibonacci targets on weekly chart are extremely strong and SP500 has hit a long term target this week, should we expect a wave 4 down from here?Shortby FelipeBart112
Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis: Why Not Both?Hey there, fellow traders and market mavens! Ever found yourself staring confused at the screen and not making sense of things that happen in trading? So you decided to wander off deep into technical analysis shutting out its other half — fundamental analysis? Or vice versa — you digested every economic report that big media outlets churned out and yet failed to factor in some support and resistance levels? Fear not, for we've got the lowdown on why you don't have to pick sides and go with either the Fibonacci sequence or the latest jobs data . In fact, we're here to tell you why embracing both might just be your secret to trading success. So, grab your charts and financial reports and let's dive into the world where candlesticks meet earnings reports! Technical Analysis: The Lost Art of Tape Reading Technical analysis is like the cool, intuitive friend who always seems to know what's going to happen next. It's all about reading the market's mood through price charts, patterns and indicators. Here's why tech analysis should be in your skill set: Trend Spotting : Ever wished you could predict the next big trend? With moving averages, trend lines and momentum indicators like the MACD, you can ride the waves like a pro surfer and let the market carry your trades into a sea of profits. Timing is Everything : Candlestick patterns and support/resistance levels are your besties when it comes to perfect timing. The more you study them, the more you elevate your chances of entering and exiting trades with ninja-like precision. Market Sentiment : Tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Bollinger Bands give you the scoop on whether the market's feeling overbought, oversold or just right. Learn these if you want to increase the probability of correctly gauging the market’s mood. But hold up, before you get lost in the charts, let's not forget about the fundamentals. Fundamental Analysis: Making Sense of Things If technical analysis is your go-to for instant market vibes, fundamental analysis is the place to figure out why things happened in the first place. Here’s why fundamentals are a big deal and can help you to a) learn what moves markets and b) become fluent in marketspeak and own every trading conversation: Long-Term Vision : While technical analysis can sometimes feel like guesswork, fundamental analysis is spitting facts. Earnings reports, P/E ratios and economic indicators help you see the bigger picture and educate you into a better, more knowledgeable trader. Value Hunting : Ever heard of value investing legends like Warren Buffett? They thrive on finding undervalued gems through rigorous fundamental analysis. And, some say, this approach to investing is not reserved for companies only. It works for crypto, too. Economic Health Check : Understanding GDP growth, interest rates and inflation can feel like having a crystal ball for market trends. And, one big plus is that you’ll become a lot more interesting when you explain things like monetary policy or forward-looking guidance to your uncle at the Thanksgiving table. The Power Couple: Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis Now, here’s the kicker: Why choose one when you can have both? Imagine the synergy when you combine the swift foresightedness of technical analysis with the solid foundation of fundamental analysis. Here’s how to make this dynamic duo work for you: Double-Check Your Entries and Exits : Use technical analysis for pinpointing your entry and exit points but back it up with fundamental analysis to build a convincing narrative of the asset’s long-term potential. Confirm the Trend : Spot a promising trend with technical indicators? Validate it with strong fundamentals to make sure it’s not just a flash in the pan. Risk Management : Technical analysis can help set your stop-loss levels, while fundamental analysis keeps you informed about any potential game-changers in the market. Diversification : Fundamental analysis might show you the hottest sectors right now, while technical analysis can help you call tops and bottoms if an indicator you trust is showing oversold or overbought levels. Wrapping Up So, there you have it, folks! Technical analysis and fundamental analysis don’t have to be opposite camps. Think of them as your dynamic duo, Batman and Robin, peanut butter and jelly — better together. By blending the best of both worlds, you’ll increase your chances of success in trading and do yourself a favor — you’ll get to know a lot and become more interesting! Ready to take your trading game to the next level? Start combining technical and fundamental analysis and watch as your trading strategies transform into a market-crushing masterpiece. Happy trading and may your profits be ever in your favor! Editors' picksEducationby TradingView1414361
US500 Will Go Lower! Short! Take a look at our analysis for US500. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,631.5. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,517.7. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Shortby SignalProviderUpdated 113
SPX Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 5,572.70. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 5,289.89 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Shortby SignalProviderUpdated 4446
SP 500 heading into strong resistance??Hi Guys, The SP 500, has just now reached a strong possible resistance zone. Much like its counterpart Nasdaq, The S SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:P 500 is currently at the 1.618 retrace of the bear market hi to low. The blue line in the box is that level and is also retrace levels of just about all the pullbacks during this remarkable uptrend, suggesting that that line will bbe very strong resistance. RSI is heavily overbought yet no divergence Safe trading allShortby elyask120Updated 666
SPX500After 21 days first tp hit sl moved to breakeven expecting the market to give us another opportunity to enter againLongby Victor_Hunter_Turner0
Why the S&P 500 is Down TodayMany of you probably don’t know, but I trade S&P 500 Futures, so I always watch the market. A few people ask me what is happening with S&P 500, so I thought I would pass on a few notes. As of writing this email, the stock market is showing mixed performance today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite down while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is slightly up. Above is an S&P 500 1HR chart, and it clearly testing support, but wouldn’t break the overall bullish trend. Support and Resistance Levels: R2 (5641.98): The second resistance level, which is significantly above the current price. R1 (5577.88): The first resistance level, which has been tested recently. P (5506.23): The pivot point, serving as a central reference. ST (5442.13): The first support level. S2 (5370.48): The second support level, which is significantly below the current price. Summary The S&P 500 Index has been in a strong uptrend recently, as shown by the series of green Heikin Ashi candles. The price has tested the first resistance level (R1) and is pulling back slightly. The support levels (ST and S2) are well below the current price, indicating a buffer zone for any potential pullback. The red trend line is a critical level to watch, as breaking above it could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. The momentum indicator suggests a possible short-term consolidation or pullback. Market Performance - What is going on? Here are the key reasons for the market's performance: Rotation out of tech stocks: Investors are shifting away from the big technology winners of 2024, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Six out of seven of these megacap tech companies are trading lower, with only Tesla showing gains. Profit-taking: The S&P 500 had recently reached a record high, surpassing 5,600 for the first time. This may have prompted some investors to take profits, especially in the tech sector. Sector performance: Information technology, communication services, and consumer staples sectors are declining, while rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities are performing well. Broader market strength: Despite the S&P 500 being down 0.3%, 410 of its members are actually rising. The Russell 2000, representing smaller companies, is up 2.7%, on track for its best day of the year. Anticipation of economic data: Investors are awaiting the release of crucial inflation data, which could impact expectations regarding potential interest rate adjustments. Bond yields: Treasury yields have been declining, which is influencing sector performance and investor sentiment. It's important to note that while the major indices are showing mixed results, there is significant breadth in the market, with many stocks rising even as the tech-heavy indices decline. This suggests a rotation in investor preferences rather than an overall market downturn.by ABSResearch1
perfect touch and rejection of the 1.618 max extention for the bButterfly counts complete with the extension to the 1.618.... a weekly weak close would be a treat here Shortby mrenigmaUpdated 2
US500 - Near his resistance? Hold or not??#US500.. market just near his resistance area that is 5646 around, That is market very important resistance level. Keep close that because if market hold it in that case you can see a drop. But keep in mind above that area a new ERA can be start. So cut n reverse keep in hand in confirmation. Good luck Trade wisely by AdilHussain731333Updated 1
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-11-2024Yesterday S&P 500 hit another ATH and has been rallying for last several days. Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day. Level to watch: 5680 ---5678 US:EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30AM ETby traderdan590
S&P500 Short-term buy signal.The S&P500 index (SPX) is just after the middle of the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up, supported by both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The Sine Waves have been very efficient at projecting the bottoms and tops (Higher Lows and Higher Highs respectively) throughout the pattern. Right now the index is approaching such a top and once the 4H RSI makes a Double Top, it will be time to take profit. Rough projection, we expect that to be around 5700 and that is our Target unless the RSI double tops earlier. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot17
S&P vs MSCI WORLD Vertical EscalationHello Traders, The stock market seems to have entered a "TOC" or "Mania" phase of continued Success in what looks like a vertical climb since the 4th of July celebrations. The rate of change has shown that there is some acceleration in the trend, and is also reflected in the SPY ETF a reduction in trading volume and in part the increase in price is probably due to a lack of sellers. Yesterday RSI reflected an overbought of +85% and this may be giving a signal of possible profit taking. If we compare it to the MSCI World / Emerging Markets or ACWI, the former two seem to be replicating the S&P 500 in detail even though the former replicates the 23 most developed countries. With 85% of the adjusted float of the capitalization of each of these countries. This index reflects 72.08% weighting with the US, 5.68% with Japan, 3.72% with the UK, 2.92% with Canada, 2.81% with France and representing the rest with 12.78%. Its weighting is IT (25.95%), Financials (14.84%), Health Care (11.77%), Industrials (10.68%), Consumer Discretionary (10.17%), Telecommunications (7.8%) among others. MSCI:https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/178e6643-6ae6-47b9-82be-e1fc565ededb Is this rally sustainable? The view I have on it is that the current rally looks unsustainable and is sustained on speculation bubbles and has entered a cycle of meaningless inertia. The volatility reached in the index currently stands at 61.28%, VIX has taken levels of 12.88%, but it looks flat, and seems to be moving in a rising direction again as it did in May. If we were to compare it to Bitcoin, it has fallen 20% and S&P500 has ignored the whole thing, and it shouldn't happen. It is curious that this rally carries a very high concentration in companies like Nvidia which since 2022 have been gaining more weight and the top 5 account for 45% of the gains. Do you think this rally will cut positions to the lows around 5,193.57 in September? I look forward to your comments Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk. UShortby ActivTrades2
US500 - Near his resistance? Hold or not??#US500.. market just near his resistance area that is 5646 around, That is market very important resistance level. Keep close that because if market hold it in that case you can see a drop. But keep in mind above that area a new ERA can be start. So cut n reverse keep in hand in confirmation. Good luck Trade wisely by AdilHussain7313330
Urgent Market Alert: Potential Coordinated ReversalIndian stock market started showing reversal signs. The upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30 AM EST (6:00 PM IST) is a pivotal event with the potential to trigger a reversal in the US market. This data point will provide crucial insights into inflationary pressures, which are a primary concern for the Federal Reserve and investors alike. In case the reversal doesn’t happen, follow technical levels. by astroduniarp0