S&P500 Bearish div?Hello, i think now we have another bearish diversion. Lets see where it will go from here.Shortby G1D3onn2
SPX: Danger level aheadFor sure we will get a drop in S&P these day's, but how big will it be ? At the best it is going to be a rebalancing from large cap so small (as suggested by Tom Lee), but tumbling down to 5350 an below should result a correction till 4300 range (till next summer) when the extend of the recession should be visible. On soft landing up to 15000 in 2030 ?Shortby darth.stocks1
Understanding risk to reward and risk management Risk Management In trading, understanding how to manage risk is just as important as understanding how to identify profitable opportunities. Regardless of your skill level or strategy, no trader can predict the market with 100% certainty. Therefore, managing risk is essential to protect your capital and ensure long-term success. In this chapter, we will explore the fundamentals of risk management, including the importance of setting stop-loss and take-profit levels, and how to determine appropriate position sizing. Importance of Risk Management The first rule of trading is to protect your capital. Without proper risk management, even a string of profitable trades can be wiped out by a few bad decisions. Traders who neglect risk management often find themselves caught in emotional trading, leading to unnecessary losses. Here’s why risk management is critical: Minimizes Losses: Every trade carries a risk. By managing risk properly, you can limit the size of your losses and protect your capital from large drawdowns. Consistency: Effective risk management allows you to trade consistently over the long term, even if you encounter a few losing trades. Successful traders understand that losing trades are inevitable, but with sound risk management, they ensure that losses are small and manageable. Preserves Psychological Capital: Emotional decision-making often leads to overtrading, panic, and revenge trading. By following a risk management plan, you reduce the emotional impact of losing trades and maintain the discipline needed to follow your strategy. Setting Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Levels One of the most practical ways to manage risk is by setting stop-loss and take-profit levels for every trade. These levels help automate your exit strategy, ensuring that you stick to your plan and avoid emotional reactions to price fluctuations. Stop-Loss Levels A stop-loss order is an instruction to exit a trade if the price moves against you by a certain amount. This ensures that you do not hold onto a losing trade for too long, minimizing potential losses. How to Set a Stop-Loss: Based on Technical Levels: Identify support and resistance levels on the chart. For example, if you are buying a stock, place the stop-loss below a significant support level. If the price breaks this level, it signals that the market is likely to continue downward. Percentage-Based: Many traders set their stop-loss at a fixed percentage of the entry price (e.g., 1% or 2%). This method ensures that you risk only a small portion of your capital on each trade. Volatility-Based: Some traders adjust their stop-loss levels based on market volatility. In a more volatile market, you might set a wider stop-loss to avoid being prematurely stopped out by normal price swings. Example: You enter a long position in a stock at £50 per share and identify strong support at £48. You set a stop-loss at £47.50 to limit your downside risk. If the price drops to £47.50, the stop-loss order is triggered, and you exit the trade automatically. Take-Profit Levels A take-profit order is used to lock in gains by exiting the trade once the price reaches a predefined profit target. This helps you avoid the temptation to hold onto a winning trade for too long and risk losing the profits you've already made. How to Set a Take-Profit: Risk-to-Reward Ratio: A common approach is to set a take-profit level that provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. For instance, if you risk $1 per trade, you might aim to make £2 or £3 in profit (a 2:1 or 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio). This ensures that your winners are larger than your losers. Technical Targets: Take-profit levels can be based on technical factors such as resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, or trendline projections. For example, if a stock is trading within a channel, you might set your take-profit near the upper boundary of the channel. Example: You enter a trade with a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2, meaning you’re risking £100 to potentially make £200. If your stop-loss is set 2% below your entry price, you’ll place your take-profit order at a level where the price is 4% higher. Trailing Stop-Loss A trailing stop-loss is a dynamic stop that moves with the price as it moves in your favor, locking in profits while allowing the trade to continue if the trend is strong. If the price reverses by a specified amount, the trailing stop will close the trade. Example: You enter a long position in a stock at £100 with a trailing stop set at £5. As the price rises to £110, your stop-loss moves to £105, locking in at least £5 in profit. If the price drops to £105, the trailing stop closes the trade. Position Sizing Position sizing is the process of determining how much capital to allocate to each trade. Proper position sizing ensures that you do not overexpose your account to a single trade, helping to protect your portfolio from excessive losses. Calculating Position Size To calculate the appropriate position size, follow these steps: 1. Determine Your Risk per Trade: Decide how much of your total trading capital you are willing to risk on any single trade. A common rule is to risk no more than 1% to 2% of your total account balance on each trade. Example: If you have a $10,000 trading account and you are comfortable risking 1%, you should only risk $100 per trade. 2. Identify Your Stop-Loss Level: Determine where you will place your stop-loss, as this defines how much you could potentially lose on the trade. For instance, if your stop-loss is 2% below your entry price, you will risk 2% of the position’s value. Risk-to-Reward Ratio Every time you enter a trade, you should consider the risk-to-reward ratio, which compares the potential loss (risk) to the potential gain (reward). A favorable risk-to-reward ratio helps ensure that even if you lose more trades than you win, you can still be profitable. Ideal Ratios: Most traders aim for a minimum risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2 or 1:3. This means that for every $1 risked, you aim to gain $2 or $3. A higher ratio increases your chances of maintaining profitability even with some losing trades. Example: If you set a stop-loss that limits your potential loss to £50, and your take-profit level is set to gain £150, your risk-to-reward ratio is 1:3. Even if you only win one out of every three trades, you will still break even or potentially make a profit. Risk management is the foundation of successful trading. By setting proper stop-loss and take-profit levels, using appropriate position sizing, and maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, you can protect your capital while maximizing your chances for long-term profitability. Remember, successful trading is not about winning every trade—it’s about managing risk effectively so that your winners outweigh your losers. Educationby samstoobad1
S&P500Lookst lik e will form a h&s going down. This could be the start of a downtrend or we contenue to go up more high. Just need to see what the price is doing.Shortby G1D3onn1
S&p 500 daily time frame Hello traders, I have observing a potential manipulation zone in the S&P 500. This suggests that the price might be artificially influenced, potentially leading to a rejection from this level. Waiting for the New York time zone for confirmation is a smart move. Here's why: * **Manipulation Zones:** These are areas where large players (institutions, hedge funds) might be trying to influence the price to their advantage. This can create false signals and make it difficult to predict the true direction. * **New York Time Zone:** The New York time zone is crucial because it's when US markets open, and many large institutional players are active. Watching the price action during this period can give you a better idea of how the market is reacting to the potential manipulation. **Remember:** Never rely on one signal alone. Always confirm your analysis with multiple indicators and the overall market context before making any trading decisions. Good luck with your trades!Shortby somayehbasiri2
#US500 1DAYTrade Recommendation: SELL Opportunity for US500 Index SELL Level:5650 Target Levels: 5500, 5600, 5200 Description: The US500 index, representing the top 500 large-cap U.S. companies, is currently trading around the 5650 level. This level presents a strategic opportunity to sell, as technical and market indicators suggest a potential downturn. Rationale: Technical Indicators: The index has recently approached resistance levels, showing signs of overbought conditions. Historical data suggests that similar resistance levels have often preceded corrective moves. Market Sentiment: Current economic data and market sentiment indicate potential headwinds, which could lead to a decline in the index. Risk-Reward Ratio: Selling at 5650 offers a favorable risk-reward profile, with potential downside targets at 5500, 5600, and a more extended target at 5200. Targets: 1.5500: Short-term target where initial profit-taking can be considered. 2. 5600: Intermediate level that could offer a partial exit or adjustment of positions. 3. 5200: Extended target for those with a longer-term bearish outlook, providing a substantial profit opportunity. Risk Management: Stop-Loss: Implement a stop-loss above the 5650 level to manage potential adverse price movements. Position Sizing: Ensure appropriate position sizing to mitigate risk and align with your trading strategy. Carefully monitor market conditions and adjust the strategy as needed to align with evolving trends and data.Shortby PIPSFIGHTER6
S&P500 INDEX (US500) Important Bullish BreakoutThe US500 reached a new record high yesterday and closed above a key intraday resistance level. This could signal the possibility of continued growth, with the next resistance level expected to be around 5800 Psychological level.Longby linofx11
Return to Normal ExitSo many people are calling for soft landing. It never goes with the crown. I'm going to call Top here.Shortby NoSecondBestUpdated 3325
SP500The current market situation presents a selling opportunity on the US500. After a recent upward movement, the price is beginning to pull back. The RSI indicates the market is overbought, suggesting a potential correction. A break below 5,710 could confirm the continuation of this downtrend, with a profit target around 5,680, which aligns with a key support level.Shortby lucasmagalhaesa1
SP500 Target ZoneWhere will the SP500 get to? Below is the potential next price using confluence factors. 1) Fundamental fair value of the SP500 is around 6057 (@19/09/24) 2) Round number 6000 3) Fib extension 1.618 from previous rally 4) Equal measured move from previous rally Looking for price to retest the weekly support (previous resistance) at 5670 before rallying to the upside.Longby Mono871
S&P 500 INDEX (^SPX) short term outlookThe S&P 500 is trading within an upward price channel, indicated by the parallel trendlines. The index is nearing a potential breakout above key resistance near 5650, where previous attempts to breach this level were rejected. The price is currently at 5638.73, with Bollinger Bands showing a squeeze, suggesting increased volatility ahead. A breakout above 5650 could lead to a rally towards the target zone between 5800 and 5900, shown in the chart. The moving averages are aligned to support bullish momentum, but caution should be taken if the price fails to break the resistance, as this may result in a pullback to the 5500 support area. In the short term, traders should watch for increased volume and confirmation above 5700 for a potential continuation to higher levels. A failure to break out could signal consolidation or a move back toward lower trendline support.by TraderhrTrading2
DreamAnalysis | S&P 500 Entering a Crucial Phase , Stay Ahead!✨ Today’s Focus: S&P 500 Analysis : We're diving into one of the key assets in the stock and indices market: the S&P 500. Let's explore what potential movements we can anticipate for the upcoming week. 📊 Current Market Overview : The S&P 500 has just swept a major buy-side liquidity level, specifically the All-Time High (ATH). This could signal a move towards lower prices, indicating a potential retracement or even a reversal. Additionally, there’s a clear divergence in market structure (SMT) between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (US100): while the S&P 500 has taken out its ATH, the Nasdaq has made a lower low. This divergence reinforces the possibility of a downward move. 🕓 Identifying Key Levels : Here are some critical zones currently present in the market: - PML : Previous Month Low - BSL : Buy-Side Liquidity (ATH) - SSL (EQL) : Sell-Side Liquidity, a key target for price movements - 4H FVG : 4-Hour Fair Value Gap, a potential retracement zone indicating an area of imbalance - SMT : Smart Money Technique, signaling further confluence for a move lower - BPR : Balanced Price Range, another zone of imbalance to watch for potential corrections These levels are significant as they represent areas where the price typically seeks liquidity, facilitating its movement toward the next target. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) also highlights areas where the market might seek to rebalance, providing further clues for future price action. 📈 Bullish Scenario : For any potential long positions, we should look to lower timeframes for a sweep of Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) or a tap into a key Fair Value Gap. Once this occurs, targeting a Buy-Side Liquidity level could present a buying opportunity. However, keep in mind that this strategy is riskier, as the higher timeframe outlook appears bearish. 📉 Bearish Scenario : Currently, the market offers opportunities to look for lower timeframe entry models to establish short positions. These trades would target Sell-Side Liquidity levels. Monitoring the Nasdaq for correlation is also crucial, as we want the two indices to align before executing any trades. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.Shortby DreamAnalysis2
How prepared are you for the outcome from FOMC today?Hello traders! I see one of three possible decisions being made today: Highest probability, 25bp rate cute Low probability, 50bp rate cut Low probability, no change (they did say over many months how committed they were to 2% inflation). These 3 possible decisions can have multiple outcomes. 25bp rate cut : Market moves in the current direction (up for assets/crypto etc) 50bp rate cut : Market turns heavy bullish No change : get ready for a very cold and painful winter and QE to turn the market back around in 3-6 months from now. How are you preparing for these three possible outcomes strategically and mentally? Here is my play: I have bets for the long side, so if a bullish outcome happens, I'm ready to take my profits at my targets And if there is no change and we see a crash over the next few months, I'm mentally prepared and will embrace that outcome with a smile on my face and get ready to buy again at the next bottom once the FED unleashes QE. There is one last rare possible outcome: selling the news type of event. We could see a sharp decline over the next few weeks, but it will be all very bullish. There could be an attempt to mark down the prices to get folks to sell so they can buy. Let's play smart and be prepared mentally. Trading is just like any other sport; it's a mental game. Good luck to everyone today, and green pips to you 🤑Longby Saver01
SP - Unexpected comebackThe S&P 500 was signaling a potential double top on the weekly timeframe, accompanied by a lower RSI—a highly bearish indicator. From a macroeconomic perspective, recession risks are also mounting. However, last week saw an unexpected and significant rally, which could potentially negate even the most bearish signals. Overall, I'm still neutral on this one.by PedroNegreiros1
SPX500 Potential Long!SPX500 is trading in an Uptrend and indice is now Making a pullback to Retest a horizontal support Of 5645.80 so after the retest We will be expecting A local bullish rebound !Longby kacim_elloitt4
S&P and Federal Funds Rate: A Recipe for RecessionAs I sift through the current economic landscape, I am dabbling with the relationship between the S&P and the Federal funds rate, engaging in a deeper analysis to decipher macro patterns that seem to be steering us into an unavoidable situation: a recession. Spotting Macro Patterns In my endeavor to find significant macro patterns, I have been keenly observing the movements and trends surrounding the S&P and Federal funds rate. Given the recent financial developments and the current market dynamics, it appears that we are heading toward a period characterized by economic downturns. Recession: A Certainty, Not a Possibility Given the data at hand and the prevailing market conditions, I am led to believe that a recession is not just a probability but a certainty, a full 100% guaranteed. The intertwining movements of the S&P and the Federal funds rate are signaling a storm on the horizon. What Next? While this paints a grim picture, it is also a call to arms for every trader to tread carefully and to fortify their portfolios against the impending downturn. It might be a wise strategy to start looking at recession-proof investments and strategies to weather the storm. Conclusion As we navigate these tumultuous waters, let's keep a keen eye on the macro patterns and stay one step ahead to safeguard our investments. Remember, it's always better to be safe than sorry. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts and insights on this critical matter. Disclaimer: This post is based on personal observations and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.Shortby CyberNetGainUpdated 2
Us500 updateDont be scared to follow trend be scared of people's who can force n trying by all means to goo against the trend am not going to goo against this trend am steaking to the plan for the rest of the year if i die I will be diying like a real man whose following the flow not folding if you see a sell am seeing buy for the next 3 to 6 mouths this is what am seeing thanks n i wish you all the best.Longby mulaudzimpho1
US500 | SPX | SP500 SHORT 3HThe S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S. The index actually has 503 components because three of them have two share classes listed. It is not an exact list of the top 500 U.S. companies by market cap because there are other criteria that the index includes. Still, the S&P 500 index is regarded as one of the best gauges of prominent American equities' performance, and by extension, that of the stock market overall.UShortby kmiarka1
[S&P 500] Inflection point, potential C&H if breakSP:SPX is at inflection point. A potential cup & handle if it managed to breakout. FED & BOJ rate decision are this week, watch out for the volatility.by fluckiluck1
Weekly 'composite index' RSI signals sell - 2000 repeat coming?Combined market indices divided by DXY has accurately signaled market expansion and contraction for more than 30 years. In the 'Internet Bubble' timeframe, although a RSI sell signal occurred, the market regained lost ground in 2000 prior to a multi-year sell-off. We see a similar run-up, sell signal, recovery now. Is this time different? Or will we see a decline beginning January-February 2025. by chillcrypto2
Pay attention to this periodPay attention to this period of time, we will see the rotation of the market in this range from an astronomical point of viewUShortby saeedazizi881