S&P500 Bearish ScenarioS&P500 seems to be following bearish harmonic crab pattern. This might signal a global recession if it fails to break the current high by retesting it.
SP500FT trade ideas
Validation of a long term top in the SPX continues to playballLast week I posted an update on my SPX cash index analysis...found below.
At the end of last week, we see where the price action has been filling in nicely as of Friday. Some key take-a-ways. First, is the price action has breached the area that I am counting as the wave 4 of one lesser degree. This would be an initial clue that the bull market pattern that started back in August of last year is cracking. This would be the area that I am counting as the intermediate wave (4). I am forecasting this recent price action down is the Minor A wave of the beginning of a stair stepped decline that has a high probability of coming back into that area of the August 2024 lows after we retrace higher in a minor B wave, labeled in Red.
What's important about price coming back into this area of approximately 5121-4950 is this the area that price could hold and manage a higher high, essentially meaning that my count is off by one degree...and what I am counting as a wave (III) super-cycle top will get pushed out to end of 2025-2026. However, to breach this area even incrementally, would provide much the same clues we're getting now, about price breaching the minor wave 4 of one lesser degree.
Below this must hold area, is where my forecast of a super-cycle wave (III) gets confirmation...until then we look for clues of validation...but confirmation does not come until price cane breach this area. To breach this area would reflect in price action that resembles the below.
US500 Signaling Optimism!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈Long-term, US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising wedge pattern marked in blue.
This month, US500 has been in a correction phase, retesting the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong structure and previous ATH.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of structure and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 is hovering around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.3-7.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 8th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13—still in Phase 1. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels were outlined in the previous post. Based on cycle timing and structure, signs of Phase 1 completion are emerging.
👉 Retrograde Venus pushed indices lower after Friday’s attempt to bounce. On March 3, the extreme forecast provided an excellent intraday shorting opportunity right after the regular trading session opened—the market never looked back.
⚠️ Short positions remain from January 24 or the triple top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 17—a classic setup coinciding with the start of retrograde Mercury.
At the beginning of the week of March 10, there’s a chance of retrograde Venus retracement lagging upwards (mentioned in the last report). This could mark the closure of Phase 1 of the base cycle.
Market Snapshotwww.saferbankingresearch.com
In light of Jerome Powell speaking Friday thought this was a great article
The below quote is from the FED as referenced in the article and Avi Gilburt rightfully asks why they would make stress tests LESS STRINGENT....hmmnnn
"The current severely adverse scenario features a slightly smaller increase in the unemployment rate in the United States compared to the 2024 severely adverse scenario. The current severely adverse scenario also features slightly smaller declines in house prices, which reflects the Scenario Design Framework’s response to the slightly lower ratio of nominal house prices to per capita disposable income at the end of 2024.
The current severely adverse scenario reflects a decline in commercial real estate prices that is 10 percentage points smaller compared to the previous year’s severely adverse scenario, recognizing that those prices have already declined by a little more than 10% relative to their most recent peaks and limiting the procyclicality in the stress tests.
The potential for spillover effects in asset markets and sharp changes in investor sentiment are captured by a decline in equity prices and an increase in corporate bond spreads, although these changes are less severe relative to last year’s scenario, reflecting less severe stress in commercial real estate markets.
The international component of the current severely adverse scenario shows a recessionary episode that, relative to last year’s severely adverse scenario, is the same for the euro area and less severe in all other countries or country blocs."
SPX Is About to Explode – Here’s What I’m WatchingSPX is at a critical level, and whichever way it breaks, the move could be huge. Here’s my take:
If we drop below 5663, I see a move down to 5534 – 5445. If that zone fails, we could head toward 5332, and if selling pressure keeps up, 5234 might be next.
But if we break above 5800, the bulls could take over, pushing to 5972, and maybe even 6149.
It’s all about reaction levels now. I’m watching these zones closely—what’s your take? Are we heading up or breaking down?
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trader Smarter Live Better
SPX: dead cat bounce last Friday?I examine the latest action which doesn't give me hope that it found a bottom just yet.
SPX/DJT technical analysisChart comparing SPX and DJT.
SPX drawn with expanded flat, (b) is 200% of (a) and completes with ending diagonal wedge.
DJT drawn with regular flat, (b) ~90% of (a), wave (c) began in November of 2024 and currently in wave iii of (c).
Bears looking for SPX pitchfork support to break and become resistance, both SPX and DJT looking to eventually break October 2022 low and approach March 2020 lows to complete their corrective structures.
SPX - short-term analysishi traders,
Let's have a look at SPX.
There are bullish divergences in the 4-hour time frame.
We should get a small bounce, but as the higher time frames are still bearish, I expect this bounce to be short-lifted.
Anyway, it's an opportunity for the Bulls to play the long position.
The target is show on the chart.
Up for SPX500USD again?Hi traders,
At the start of last week the price action of SPX500USD went up as predicted in my outlook but it could not reach the higher 4H FVG and dropped to the target. The bigger (red) WXY correction could be finished.
So next week we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher 4H FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish and after that a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 successfully retested the Mean Resistance level of 5967; however, it subsequently experienced a significant decline. This decline brought the index back to the Mean Support level of 5860 and further down to the next major Key Support level of 5710. After this downturn, the index established a new critical support level at 5683. It is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5840. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current position and successfully surpass this key resistance, it may continue to ascend toward the subsequent Mean Resistance level of 5955.
Conversely, suppose the index experiences a decline from the retested level of 5840. In that case, it will likely target the Mean Support level of 5683, with a further descent to an Outer Index Dip of 5576.
SPX to drop 20% on tariff impacts ??I have copied the path taken by market in 2018 in response to Trump tariff, which were less severe compared to now. Of course history never repeats but rhymes. Better go by history than to create my speculative path. This assumes a 20% correction happens. If that happens then SPX would be at 4850, which close to 2022 market peak. However strong POC at 5450
Alternatively f Trump is bluffing than this is the time to buy!
SP500 LOOKS BULLISH FOR FEW DAYS Hi People
I can see some Bulls are interest on the sp500 level , That will shift market up
for Few days in my opinion
Lets See what Happens
S&P500 The Week Ahead 10th March '25 Sentiment: Bearish INTRADAY Price action is consolidating in a tight trading range
Resistance: Key Resistance is at 5920, followed by 6003 and 6010.
Support: Key support is at 5664 followed by 5600 and 5554.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX Price Action Analysis | Swing & Scalping OpportunitiesSPX is currently at a key support zone, showing signs of bullish rejection. A potential long opportunity exists if a strong bullish candle forms, confirming the rejection.
Trade Plan:
📌 Entry: Around the highlighted support zone, once a bullish confirmation appears.
📌 Stop-Loss (SL): Below the rejection candle to minimize risk.
📌 Targets:
Scalping Target: Small resistance area (~5,815)
Medium Target: Next key resistance (~5,880)
Swing Target: Major resistance (~6,000)
If the price fails to hold the support and breaks below, we might reconsider the bullish bias. Keeping an eye on market sentiment and fundamentals is crucial.
Let me know if you need any modifications! 🚀📈
$SPX Trading Levels for March 7 2025
Y’all doing ok after this pullback down to the 200DMA? Now the question… do we hold this level.
200 Day Moving Average right in the middle today.
Weekly 35EMA right above just underneath yesterday’s bear gap.
Top of the implied move on the day is 5840 and 5865 on Mondays contract.
Then if we break the 200DMA then the bottom of the implied move is 5635 and there is a support gap there.
5610 on Mondays contract.
Let’s go Traders!!!
SNP, Much Needed CorrectionOne simple way to manage a U.S. portfolio is to let the ABC correction run its course, hold cash, and rotate into Asian stocks.
As the tariff buzz unfolds, it's best to stay on the sidelines while market volatility shakes out panicked traders.
When it comes to timing the markets, we’ll check back on May 22.
Drill Baby Drill...
S&P500 1week MA50 test is the last before the Cycle tops.S&P500 / US500 tested this week its 1week MA50 successfully as the price almost touched it and rebounded.
We have seen this kind of behavior in the last 9-12 months before a Bull Cycle tops.
In fact with the 1week RSI trending downwards on a bearish divergence, today's price action looks more similar to the October 13 2014 1week MA50 fakeout, which was breached marginally but rebounded immediately.
Based on that, a 6500 Cycle Top target by October 2025 is very much realistic.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
BUY SETUP SP500 RIGHT NOWBuy setup with R/R = 1/2.43
Catalyst : After Speech Sp500 tough demand.
That was best entry level but u know Japan time 2:00 A.M something so hard for me,in my opinion.
Next week i expect SP500 retest demand zone.
But i do not wanna lost this high probability win trade .
That why i took entry right now.
We need make more space for price breath.
But ST far from point u think u will put your ST.
This might be wave 5 of the drop complete The action today I feel is a bit suspicious. Doesn't feel like what I'd expect in a usual legit breakout at this level.
This could be a butterfly low, which could setup a rally to over 6000.
Bears should be careful now if we rally.
RSI Divergence : S&P 500 and NASDAQ Giants Due for CorrectionOn monthly timeframe, a RSI divergence has formed on the S&P 500, currently trading at 6044, signaling a potential reversal.
Similarly, to name only a few, NASDAQ, Tesla, Bitcoin, NVIDIA, and Apple are exhibiting the same bearish divergence. Is a healing correction imminent?
Will it happen this year or will the market delay the inevitable until next year ?
Will you be able to avoid these 7 bear traps?Will you be able to avoid these 7 bear traps?
What if the next rally in stocks is simply one of these?
Failed cycle after failed cycle.
Don't be a hero, don't try to catch these.
