now or nevermarket is at secondary support and is now down more than 3 percent. If we are going to bounce, this is the level that should hold.
SP500FT trade ideas
S&P500SPX showing strong bullish momentum after confirming a double bottom. Last week’s COT report showed increased institutional longs. Add in a dovish Fed, solid earnings, and low VIX — the setup looks strong. Watching for continuation above key resistance.
A Tolled BellThe first bell has rung. A bridge is being paved across the $6000 range.
IF it blows up, it likely won't happen until the bridge is constructed and sentiment improves. Expect a few heartfelt endeavors to shoot above $6,660. Base case is long term crab market.
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5510Global Trade & Geopolitics
China may suspend steep tariffs on some U.S. imports, like medical equipment and ethane, to ease pressure on key industries—hinting at a more pragmatic trade stance.
Apple plans to shift most U.S. iPhone production to India by late next year, while Walmart is helping Chinese exporters sell locally—both reflecting efforts to reduce reliance on China.
U.S.-Russia-Ukraine: The U.S. will push for Russia to recognize Ukraine’s right to its own military in any peace deal. However, Trump suggests Ukraine may have to cede some territory. Meanwhile, reduced U.S. aid is increasing Ukraine’s exposure to Russian cyberattacks.
Market Impact:
Watch for shifts in trade-sensitive sectors, supply chain plays (especially in tech), and defense stocks as geopolitical risk evolves.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5510
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5790
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4950
Support Level 3: 4815
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SP 500 to the moon !!!It's painful, I know. But considering Fibonacci, I'm sorry to inform you that I see the SP500 hurtling toward its final extension of its downtrend (not a correction, it's a downtrend. Yes, sir).
Stock Markets Consolidate Ahead of the HolidaysStock Markets Consolidate Ahead of the Holidays
A lull is expected on the financial markets today due to a shortened trading week related to the Easter holiday celebrations.
It is reasonable to assume that traders will get a “breather” after a news-heavy April, which caused a volatile “shakeout” in the stock markets.
US Stock Markets
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was both cautious and somewhat aggressive in his forecasts regarding US monetary policy, stating that Trump’s tariffs could delay the achievement of inflation targets.
In response, US President Donald Trump accused Powell of “playing politics”, hinting at his possible dismissal.
European Stock Markets
On Thursday, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in the past 12 months, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde left the door open for further easing.
Analysts had expected a rate cut from 2.65% to 2.40%, so the financial markets reacted relatively calmly to the ECB’s decision.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
On the charts of European and US stock indices today, a narrowing triangle pattern is forming, indicating a balance between supply and demand — in other words, price is more efficiently factoring in all influencing elements.
On the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the triangle is highlighted in grey. The ADX and ATR indicators are trending downwards, which underlines signs of consolidation.
From a bearish perspective, the market is in a downtrend (marked by the red trend channel) — but from a bullish point of view, price is in the upper half of the channel.
Although the situation appears “reassuring”, the long weekend may bring a string of high-impact statements from the White House, which could disrupt the balance and lead to a breakout from the triangle.
It is not out of the question that the bulls may seize the initiative and challenge the upper boundary of the channel in an attempt to lay the groundwork for an upward trend (shown in blue lines).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPXGiven the escalating tariff pressures, it's clear that this scenario is unsustainable for any economy in the long term. I anticipate a resolution to the US-China trade issue within the next few weeks to months.
The current market correction is likely a reflection of the accumulated negative impacts from Trump's second term, and from a technical analysis perspective, further downside levels are indicated on the charts.
However, looking at the broader, four-year horizon of Trump's presidency, there are several potentially bullish factors, including tax cuts, financial deregulation, continued Fed dovishness, and the possibility of renewed quantitative easing.
S&P500 1D Death Cross formed! Market COLLAPSE or Bear TRAP? The S&P500 index (SPX) is attempting to recover from the April 07 2025 market low, following the 90-day Tariff pause.
Last Thursday however it formed a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, he first since May 11 2022, which was during the last Inflation Crisis correction. That was nothing like the current crash though as it was a technical 1-year Bear Cycle in contrast to today which is a flash crash inflicted by Trump's tariffs.
What looks though most similar to today is the 2020 COVID crash. Equally fast and brutal, that sell-off also took place under an extreme pressure environment of uncertainty (economic lockdowns) which the world has never seen, similar to today's tariffs that admittedly have put (for the moment) an end to the U.S. - China trade.
The COVID crash phase also formed a 1D Death Cross just 4 days after the March 23 2020 bottom. Last Thursday's 1D Death Cross came also just 3 days after the April 07 2025 Low. If this pattern of extreme market shock is a repetitive model under such fundamental events, then the stock market has bottomed. And if it follows the exact same recovery pattern as post-COVID, then it may reach the 1.1 Fibonacci extension at 6300 in a little over 5 months (162 days).
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Should we be concerned about the death cross ?So, we are at the death cross again? Should we panic? Should we sell ? What if recession is coming? Ohhhhh noo!!!!!
Stop worrying so much and most importantly, stop reading the damn news , especially the headlines that are meant to create more fear than anything! Of course, they want you to sell, how else can the algo traders, big boys scoop up the prices cheap.
It is like displaying thunders and lightning across the sky, gloomy and dark clouds to make you believe it is going to rain, a heavy thunderstorm.
We were in a bear market on 7th Apr where prices drop below 20% from the peak. However, it quickly bounced up within the next two days, especially 9th Apr where there is a 90 days pause on tariffs imposed.
So, technically we are still in a BULL market lah, guys. Focus on the chart not the emotions of the people who are sold daily by social media, influencers with benefits and whoever that wants you to believe their side of the story.
Until we enter into a bear market, we should not speculate too much nor read into the future with too much gloom and doom. I am quite confident the tariff matter will subside and blown away over time just like the real war between Ukraine and Russia (over 3 years and still fighting but who covers the news now, it is STALE and no longer sensational). Any papers or social media that gives that "expert view" on tariffs will be rewarded with likes and traffic volume, much to the content creators delight.
Stay calm, guys! In the short term, market is volatile like a voting machine but in the long term, it is a weighing machine and history has shown us over the past century or so, the market is going up.
Going in and out of the market or TIMING the market - leave that to the experts or professional traders. Your heart and mine cannot take it. Over the long term, you will be rewarded for staying in the market. Just look at Warren Buffett, many a times he bought something, the stock might goes down 10-20% or more, does he panic and starts selling? No, his biggest strength is his patience , one attributes that we all can learn from him.
Go for a run, swim or hit the gym if you are too glued to the news. Stay healthy and ensure you have a balance, diversified portfolio to protect yourself.
SPX: Eye of The StormIn a hurricane the EYE of the storm is region of "calm" and even blue skies
To the unaware, the break in the clouds and the blues skies may bring a sense of relief that "the worst is over"
But the informed know that the OTHER SIDE of the storm is coming and the worst has yet to happen
IMO the aforementioned scenario accurately describes what we are about to see in markets
The Administration is slowly backing off the more severe of the tariffs
Over the weekend they removed tariffs on major electronics and associated components coming from China which should bring a sense of relief to markets
We will most likely see continued softening on the worst of the tariffs as the administration grapples with the true reality of things: MARKETS ARE IN TROUBLE
This softening will give the appearance that things will be OK and we may even see markets rally to new ALL TIME HIGHS
But a rally to new ATHs will be akin to the "eye of the storm" as just like with a Hurricane..the other side of the storm is coming
SPX Fractal Expansion: New Highs Ahead Despite FearAs of April 14, 2025, the CBOE:SPX is exhibiting a clear fractal expansion, suggesting the beginning of a new bullish leg. The recent correction, which caused widespread panic, appears to have completed a fractal cycle reset, with price respecting historical support near 4704 and forming a new fractal edge around 5300.
Despite the fear-driven selloff, momentum indicators like RSI and MACD show signs of bottoming, and volume surged on rebound days, confirming strong institutional buying. The price is now testing temporary resistance at 5878, with a path open to reclaim all-time highs (6100+).
Global & Technical Tailwinds
Technical momentum is recovering across timeframes, with positive divergence on stochastic oscillators.
Breadth is improving: More stocks are participating in the rally, reflecting internal strength.
Sentiment has flipped: The VIX has cooled from panic levels (above 45), and investor fear is easing.
Macro support: Inflation is declining, and central banks are signaling potential rate cuts by late 2025.
Earnings outlook remains solid, and analysts forecast SPX to end 2025 around 6500–7100.
🔍Conclusion
The SPX is carving out a fractal mirror of past bullish reversals, reinforced by strong macro and technical context. Barring unexpected shocks, the index is likely to break above resistance and push toward new highs, even as residual fear lingers. The setup favors buying dips within this emerging structure.
S&P 500 likely needs to complete weekly Wave 5 drop! Yields remain high, Bonds are selling off, Huge price demand @ 4650, which is also 72.8% Impulse drop, and typically a Reversal level. Now that Mr.T backed-off on Tariffs, Powell might do a rate-cut and create a Bounce!
Deflation in Our Time? Analyzing the Multifaceted Risk of a Deflationary Bust in the 21st Century United States
Scene setting;
===============================================================================
Shifting Focus from Inflation to a Latent Deflationary Threat
===============================================================================
For decades, the dominant macroeconomic preoccupation in the United States, reflected in policy debates and market anxieties, has centered on managing inflation.
The specter of rising prices eroding purchasing power has been the primary dragon for central bankers and governments to slay. However, lurking beneath these immediate concerns are powerful, long-term structural forces that converge to present a different, arguably more insidious, potential threat: a deflationary bust.
Deflation, a sustained decrease in the general price level, can morph from seemingly benign cheaper goods ("good deflation") into a destructive economic vortex ("bad deflation") characterized by falling demand, contracting output, rising unemployment, crippling debt burdens, and financial instability.
This essay looks into the confluence of factors;
technological disruption
demographic shifts
unprecedented debt levels
– These create a credible vulnerability to such a scenario in the US over the coming decades. It will further explore how policy choices, global trade dynamics, and speculative market behavior could act as amplifiers or triggers, transforming latent risk into acute crisis. While not predicting an inevitable outcome, this analysis aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the multifaceted nature of this significant long-term economic challenge.
===============================================================================
Technological Double-Edged Sword: AI, Automation, and the Price Level
===============================================================================
Technological advancement, particularly the accelerating capabilities of Artificial Intelligence, robotics, and digitalization, stands as perhaps the most potent and complex force influencing future price levels.
Its impact is fundamentally dual-natured:
-- The Promise of "Good Deflation" : Efficiency and Abundance: Technology inherently drives efficiency. AI can optimize supply chains, automate manufacturing processes, reduce energy consumption, and streamline service delivery, leading to lower production costs. These savings can translate into lower prices for consumers, boosting real incomes and living standards – a beneficial form of deflation. Furthermore, in the digital realm, AI pushes towards zero marginal cost production for information goods. The ability to generate personalized software, entertainment (films, music, games), designs, or sophisticated analysis on demand at negligible incremental cost represents a powerful deflationary force in these sectors, potentially leading to an unprecedented abundance of certain goods and services.
-- The Peril of Disruption and Demand Destruction : The same technologies that promise efficiency also threaten widespread labor displacement. If automation eliminates jobs across various sectors (from manufacturing and logistics to white-collar professions like coding, design, and even legal analysis) faster than the economy can create new roles or adapt wage structures, the result could be significant unemployment or wage stagnation for large segments of the population. This directly undermines aggregate demand. Even if goods become cheaper, falling or insecure incomes prevent consumers from purchasing them, nullifying the benefits of lower prices. This risk is amplified by the "productivity paradox" – if AI adoption leads to job losses without simultaneously generating the massive, broad-based productivity gains needed to boost overall wealth and create new demand, the net effect could be strongly deflationary. The destruction of incomes in industries disrupted by zero-marginal-cost AI could further exacerbate this, crippling the vital income-spending-income cycle necessary for economic vitality. Uncertainty about future employment prospects can also trigger increased precautionary savings (hoarding), slowing the velocity of money and adding further deflationary pressure.
===============================================================================
The Demographic Drag: An Aging Population and Shifting Consumption
===============================================================================
Compounding the technological shifts are profound demographic changes underway in the United States. While not as advanced as in Japan or parts of Europe, the US population structure is undergoing significant transformation:
The Aging Baby Boomer Cohort : The retirement of this large generation is leading to slower labor force growth and a higher dependency ratio (more retirees relative to workers).
Shifting Consumption Patterns : Older populations typically exhibit different consumption behaviors. They tend to save a higher proportion of their income and spend less, particularly on durable goods, vehicles, and housing expansion, compared to younger, family-forming households. Their spending priorities often shift towards healthcare and services.
Impact on Aggregate Demand : This demographic evolution acts as a persistent, gradual drag on overall consumer demand, which has historically been the primary engine of US economic growth. Reduced demand for goods and services exerts a gentle but constant downward pressure on prices and growth potential. While immigration can partially offset these trends, the underlying shift towards an older population profile contributes to a macroeconomic environment more susceptible to deflationary forces. It represents a structural headwind that makes the economy less resilient to negative shocks.
========================================================================
The Mountain of Debt: Vulnerability and the Debt-Deflation Spiral
========================================================================
Perhaps the most acute vulnerability amplifying the risk of a deflationary bust is the staggering level of debt accumulated across the US economy – encompassing government, corporate, and household sectors. Decades of low interest rates, financial innovation, and fiscal deficits have resulted in debt-to-GDP ratios hovering near historic highs.
Scale and Scope : From towering federal deficits to increased corporate borrowing (often used for share buybacks rather than productive investment) and significant household mortgage and consumer debt, the US economy operates with substantial leverage.
The Debt-Deflation Mechanism : As articulated by Irving Fisher, debt becomes exceptionally dangerous during deflation. When the general price level falls, the real burden of existing, nominally fixed debt increases. A dollar owed becomes harder to earn back when wages and prices are declining. This forces debtors (households, corporations, potentially even governments) into distress:
-- Forced Deleveraging : Debtors must cut spending drastically to service or pay down debt. Businesses slash investment and payrolls; households cut consumption.
-- Asset Fire Sales : To raise cash, debtors may be forced to sell assets (homes, stocks), further depressing asset prices and exacerbating the downturn.
-- Demand Collapse : The combined effect of spending cuts and asset deflation crushes aggregate demand.
-- Feedback Loop : Falling demand leads to further price declines, which further increases the real debt burden, triggering more defaults and spending cuts – a vicious downward spiral.
Heightened Fragility : The sheer scale of existing debt means the US economy is acutely sensitive to this dynamic. Even a mild deflationary impulse could potentially trigger significant financial distress and initiate this destructive feedback loop, turning a manageable slowdown into a severe bust.
===============================================================================
Amplifiers and Triggers: Igniting the Latent Risk
===============================================================================
While the underlying forces create vulnerability, specific events or policy choices often act as catalysts, turning potential risk into reality. Several potential amplifiers and triggers exist in the current context:
-- Policy Missteps : Abrupt or misjudged policy actions could destabilize the system.
-- Monetary Policy Shock : An overly aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve, perhaps reacting belatedly to persistent inflation, could dramatically raise borrowing costs, crush asset values held by indebted entities, and freeze credit markets, potentially triggering a deflationary collapse despite the initial inflationary trigger.
-- Sudden Fiscal Austerity : A sharp, unexpected shift to fiscal consolidation (deep spending cuts, large tax hikes), potentially driven by political gridlock or a sudden panic over debt levels, could withdraw critical demand from the economy, tipping it into deflation.
-- Disruptive Regulation : Hasty or poorly designed regulations targeting key sectors (e.g., finance, technology) could inadvertently curtail credit, destroy perceived wealth, or halt investment.
-- Loss of Credibility : A rapid erosion of market confidence in US fiscal sustainability or the Federal Reserve's competence could lead to soaring interest rates (market-driven), capital flight, and financial chaos, potentially triggering a bust.
Trade Wars and Deglobalization: Beyond specific tariffs (which can be inflationary for targeted goods), the broader trend of escalating trade friction and deglobalization acts primarily as a deflationary force on the overall economy. It reduces global efficiency, disrupts supply chains, dampens business investment due to uncertainty, and slows global growth, thereby weakening the capacity of economies worldwide to service debt and maintain demand.
Speculative Unwinding and Retail Exposure: The significant increase in retail investor participation, often concentrated in highly speculative assets like meme stocks and cryptocurrencies, creates a specific vulnerability. A sharp, correlated downturn in these markets would trigger:
-- Negative Wealth Effect : Millions feeling suddenly poorer would drastically cut discretionary spending.
-- Confidence Collapse : Shattered confidence would lead to increased hoarding (precautionary savings) and delayed purchases.
-- Direct Liquidity Shock : Forced selling and realized losses would directly reduce spending power. This mechanism provides a direct channel from financial market volatility to a sharp contraction in real economic activity, amplifying deflationary pressures.
========================================================================
Interactive Effects and the Downward Spiral
========================================================================
Crucially, these factors do not operate in isolation; their danger lies in their potential interaction and ability to create self-reinforcing negative feedback loops.
Synergistic Weakness: Imagine technology displacing workers (reducing income) while an aging population inherently dampens demand, all within an economy saturated with debt. This combination is exceptionally fragile.
Cascading Failures: A shock in one area (e.g., a tech stock collapse) can trigger deleveraging that worsens the debt problem, which then further reduces demand, validating initial pessimism and potentially leading to further price drops and layoffs.
The Power of Expectations: Once businesses and consumers expect prices to fall, deflation can become entrenched. Businesses delay investment, and consumers postpone purchases, waiting for lower prices, thereby validating the expectation and deepening the slump. Breaking these expectations becomes incredibly difficult for policymakers.
===============================================================================
Countervailing Forces
===============================================================================
Despite these significant risks, a deflationary bust is not preordained. Several factors could counteract these trends or mitigate their impact:
US Economic Dynamism: The US economy possesses inherent strengths, including a culture of innovation, relatively flexible labor markets (compared to some peers), and a deep pool of capital.
Inflationary Pressures: Persistent inflationary forces may counteract deflationary drivers. These include the costs associated with reshoring supply chains (deglobalization), massive investments required for the green energy transition, geopolitical instability impacting commodity prices, and potentially persistent labor bargaining power in certain sectors.
Policy Responses: Governments and central banks are aware of deflation risks (particularly informed by Japan's experience). They possess tools like quantitative easing, negative interest rates (though controversial), forward guidance, and substantial fiscal stimulus (like direct payments or infrastructure spending) to combat deflationary pressures. Novel policies like Universal Basic Income (UBI) might even be considered in a future of AI-driven job displacement. The effectiveness and potential unintended consequences (e.g., fueling asset bubbles, future inflation risk) of these tools, especially near the zero lower bound, remain subjects of debate.
===============================================================================
Vigilance in the Face of Structural Change
===============================================================================
The risk of a deflationary bust in the United States over the coming decades is a credible, complex threat arising from the confluence of powerful structural forces. Transformative technology offers efficiency but risks income destruction; demographic shifts promise longer lives but dampen demand; accumulated debt fuels growth in the short term but creates profound fragility in the face of falling prices. These underlying vulnerabilities can be ignited by policy errors, geopolitical turmoil, or the unwinding of speculative excesses in financial markets, potentially trapping the economy in a debilitating downward spiral. While countervailing forces exist and policy tools are available, their efficacy in navigating such an unprecedented confluence of challenges remains uncertain. Addressing this latent risk requires more than traditional macroeconomic management. It demands forward-looking policies that foster inclusive growth, manage the societal transitions accompanying technological change, ensure long-term fiscal sustainability without triggering austerity shocks, promote financial stability that accounts for new forms of speculation, and maintain adaptability in the face of profound global shifts. Recognizing and proactively addressing the gathering chill of potential deflation is essential for securing long-term economic prosperity and stability in the 21st century.
S&P500The S&P 500 is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, as reflected in the recent price action. Notably, the H4 (4-hour) timeframe indicates sustained upward strength, signaling a continuation of the current bullish trend.
SP500 Buy/Sell/Hold zones for next couple of days
Buy/Sell/Hold zones marked in grn/red/ylw drawn-in lines. Tomorrow if it gets below ~5,200 I'm shorting or above ~5,350 I'm buying back in, look for a big reaction outside of these levels.
S&P500: Bottom is in. 5,800 Target imminent.S&P500 is almost neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.927, MACD = -131.940, ADX = 29.116) as it has recovered from the tariff selloff, finding support a little over the 1W MA200. The 1D RSI made a double bottom and is much like the October 27th 2023 bottom. Both DB bullish divergences in contrast to the LL of the price. The immediate target on the rebound that followed in 2023 was the R1 level. Trade: long, TP = 5,800.
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SPX potentials for resistance & lowsI do dowsing & that's where I get my information from. I am expecting a move up tomorrow and then a high Wed./Thurs. with a reversal back down.
I've had levels around the 5450 area even since September, as well as dates suggesting a return to prices even lower from around November/December 2023, which if you recall, was the start of this big run up. I'm only showing the more near term idea, because that's what seems more clear.
The areas at the top are likely resistance in the near term. I'm not sure on timing for lows, but suspect something big in June/July.
I have some potentially important dates including this Thursday, as well as April 18th, 23rd, June 2nd and twice I get July 14th as well.
S&P INTRADAY key resistance at 5509
Donald Trump said there was “big progress” in trade talks with Japan, easing fears of higher tariffs. This boosted the Nikkei 225, as traders grew less concerned about U.S. pressure for a stronger yen.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound after Wednesday’s selloff. The drop was sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who struck a cautious tone on tariffs and signaled no rush to cut rates, disappointing markets looking for quicker support.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX Tariff Relief dips to buy: 5282 ideal, 5100 a Must-Hold zoneStonks got sold in panic then bought in fomo.
We of the Fib Faith indulge in logical serenity.
We plan and execute calmly and deliberately.
5428-5454 bounce would indicate Strong Bull.
5271-5282 Bounce would be ideal structural dip.
5109-5136 is the Must-Hold or it was a bull trap.
==========================================
"US500/SPX500" Index Market Money Heist Plan (Day / Scalping)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500 / SPX500" Index CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk ATR Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (5500) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊."
📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (5200) Day trade basis.
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🏴☠️Target 🎯: 5750 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
💰💵💴💸"US500/SPX500" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Day / Scalping Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness🐂.., driven by several key factors.👆👆👆
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
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A Wolfe Wave? Maybe. Another Win? Definitely. | SPX Analysis 16 What do you call it when you wake up, sip your tea, and realise the market is exactly where you thought it would be?
Answer: another day following the damn plan.
Yesterday’s price action? Snooze city. But tucked away inside that inside day was a lovely little income win, all thanks to those glorious GEX levels we’ve had our eyes glued to for weeks. 5400/5425 was once again the no-go zone. SPX tiptoed up, chickened out, and reversed politely on cue.
While retail traders yawned or second-guessed, we quietly hit our numbers. Again.
And while the surface was calm, beneath the charts... something’s stirring.
---
🎯 "Same Setup. Same Result."
Some traders chase action. We wait for systematic decision-making framework.
While the masses complained about a boring market day, we snagged another payday. The setup was textbook: resistance at 5400/5425, backed by GEX, ADD extremes, and the ol’ "...oh and..." wedge-in-the-making.
Throw in a mechanical bear Tag 'n Turn and we were go for launch.
The overnight futures have started to crack the two-day range. One of the perks of short-dated expirations? You don't need massive moves - just a push in your direction, and the premium does the work for you.
And here's a wildcard for your "...oh and..." notebook:
👀 Possible Wolfe Wave forming. If valid, we could be looking at a gravity slide down to 5000.
Is it the holy grail? Nah. But if it lines up with pulse bars and structure, I’ll be ready.
---
GEX Analysis Update
5425 again
🎓 Expert Insight – "Pattern First, Prediction Later"
Common Trading Mistake: Jumping on a trade just because the news made your pulse spike.
Fix It: Let your levels do the talking. GEX, ADD, Tag 'n Turns… the market leaves breadcrumbs. Follow those, not the headlines.
Don’t predict. React with structure.
Trade setups, not emotions.
Repeat winners are born from repeatable processes.
---
🤓 Fun Market Fact
The Wolfe Wave pattern is named after Bill Wolfe and is often misunderstood as some esoteric mystery. But really? It’s just a glorified channel break with attitude.
It projects a reversal target based on converging trendlines, often in five-wave structures. The magic? The final wave usually slams to a specific line, called the EPA/ETA - and can happen quickly if volatility kicks in.
Most people don’t spot it until it’s too late. But if you know what to look for, it becomes a spicy tool in the AntiVestor arsenal. 🐺📉
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
Could be a good time to build a longer term SPX long Potentially good reward:risk here for investors / longer timeframe swing traders or position traders
Last week was a big test for the SPX index - it tested two crucial supports
1) Retest of the 2022 highs
2) Retest of the major trendline which has held the trend for around 2.5 years now
It looks like buyers came in strong at support giving us a big bullish candle - likely forming a capitulation low.
Major pullbacks like these come only a few times a year - and if managed well can be good R:R trades.
For investors/position traders:
If the low from last week holds, any pullbacks into 5250 or lower seem like a good time to add - for a longer term hold for a few months or even a few quarters.
For traders wanting to see some clear momentum first:
The most important resistance up above is the 5600-5800 area & the 20w ema (which aligns with it currently). You might want wait for a clean reclaim of this resistance first. For investors, you could think of adding to your buys once this resistance is reclaimed strongly.
TLDR;
SPX might have capitulated
This is a decent area to start buying for a longer term hold - targeting the prior highs first and holding some into price discovery
Invalidation: if a weekly candle closes below the recent low
When to observe PA closely: test of the 5600-5800 resistance / 20w ema
S&P500 - Temporary snap back rally to kill some bears ?Markets are in correction mode as everyone has (hopefully) noticed by now, with the NASDAQ and S&P500 breaching key lows.
Forced selling like we saw on Friday usually gives us a reaction rally that can last a few days.
Prices have already dropped too much already so don't try an be bold now with any agressive shorting, especially if you plan to keep positions overnight!
You have to stay alert and react quickly to be able to profit on short-term setups within this bear market.
Be disciplined, protect your capital, stay active—this is not an investor's market !!!
