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S&P 500 Breakdown: 4,790 Worst-Case Scenario in Play?Last week, I warned in this post that if sentiment worsened, the S&P 500 could head toward 4,790 as a worst-case scenario. Fast forward to today, and the index has officially lost the 5,149 support level, opening the door for further downside. What Just Happened? 📉 Key Support Broken: The market just lost 5,149 (1.0 Fib retracement), which was a major line in the sand. 📉 Momentum Still Bearish: With no strong bounce, sellers remain in control, making 4,790 - 4,800 the next major target. 📉 Next Supports: 4,800 zone: A critical psychological level and my worst-case scenario target. 4,761 (1.618 Fib): A key confluence area for a potential bounce. If the S&P 500 fails to reclaim 5,149 quickly, then the next downside targets are: 4,800 – A major area I highlighted last week. 4,761 – Aligns with the 1.618 Fib extension, adding confluence. What Needs to Happen for a Rebound? For bulls to take back control, the index must reclaim at least 5,149, or risk continued selling. A failed bounce could accelerate the move lower. 🚨 I called 4,790 as a worst-case target last week.
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
1
S&P outlook. i think we're currently mid 1987 crash. lines up with a peak fear april 9th and may 27th cut date ( give or take ) literally zero to fear. jpm collar is 4480. they're crushing this because of the speed of the trade. they dont wanna fully break the economy. they just wanna liquidate some degens and buy the dip. learn to love it mane. this also means small caps rally HARD from may on if this plays out. should be a BLAST to play this admin if small caps goes on a genny run while the S&p takes a grind and go approach. bullish on AMEX:MIDU AMEX:TNA AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT SP:MID CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:SOL SEED_WANDERIN_JIMZIP900:WIF
SP:SPXLong
by Fadethesniper1
$S&P500 macro analysis , market approaching correction °•° $SPXHi 👋🏻 check out my previous analysis ⏰ on SP:SPX macro bullish analysis ⏰ As provided it went up up 🚀 completed my target's 🎯 💯💪🏻 ✅ ✔️ Click on it 👆🏻 just check out each and every time updates ☝🏻 ☺️ ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• NOW I was completely 🐻 BEARISH on the market with in upcoming months SP:SPX 📌 Expecting liquidation pump $6500 - $6700 Invalid 🛑 when complete month close above $6700 ¹support - $5500 ( 🎯 ¹ ) ²support - $5130 ( 🎯 ² ) 🎯 3 ... Will be updated based on market conditions by that time ☺️ 📍 A wise 🦉 man said - always having patience " is " always gaining only /- NASDAQ:TSLA ( i accumulate slowly until it cross above $400 ) rest of stocks i will follow index ☝🏻 i will invest based on market conditions ..... ✔️
SP:SPXShort
by raj5_7_5
S&P 500 Faces Increased Bearish Pressure as Trade War BeginsThe S&P 500 has formed a downtrend channel following the break below the 5700 support level. Trump's new aggressive tariff policy raised the minimum tariff on China to 54%, while China responded with equally aggressive 34% tariffs. The trade war has now officially begun. This escalation is clearly negative for the stock market. Recession risks have risen significantly, and it remains uncertain how much the Fed can cut rates while tariff-driven inflationary pressures persist. Rapid rate cuts could help soften the slowdown but may also risk fueling another inflation surge. That would be the more optimistic case for equities. However, the Fed is likely to proceed cautiously, suggesting that bearish pressure could continue for several quarters. In the short term, the downward trend remains intact. If the S&P 500 breaks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, it may decline further toward the lower boundary of the new trend channel, where a potential bounce could occur. As long as the trend holds, bears remain in control. Note: Powell is expected to speak today. His remarks carry even more weight following the tariff moves by both the U.S. and China.
SP:SPXShort
by ftdsystem
Hank Tough - Long ride down to 4,514 for US500Even with better than expect numbers with NFP. The matter remains that the world is not on great terms with MAGAs Tariff plan. Tariffs are in an indirect way a threat when it comes to trade wars. Because, there'll need to be reciprocals and larger measures to make up for the mess. Apparently, the calculations of the tariffs was to make up for the trade deficit, but it means that there'll need to ACTUALLY be the same amount or more of exports - which we know won't happen as there are two types of goods. Elastic - Where the price and demand and supply changes. Inelastic - where they a don't change much. Right now there is a LARGE Inverse Cup and Handle forming on the daily with the price below 20 and 200 - showing strong downside to come. So, we can expect looking at the pattern to continue to 4,514. 'Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thoughts?
TRADENATIONSB:US500Short
by Timonrosso
Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX? S&P 1D Technical and Fundamental Analysis; This structure, which looks like an ordinary decline on the SPX daily chart ... in fact, we can say that it carries the pieces of a big scenario that develops synchronously both technically and fundamentally. Let me explain now; 5 December 2024 was not just a breaking point. Because Trump's statements after taking the presidency for the second time, especially the message that ‘customs walls may rise’ had become clear. In the same week, the uptrend in SPX quickly weakened and declined as the FED gave the message ‘Interest rate cut is not imminent’. From here, Bullish Sharq started the formation of harmonic formation. Now comes the week of 1 May. - FED's interest rate decision, - Trump's budget plan, - And one of the critical macro thresholds where company balance sheets are announced. While everything is going well so far, if we take into account that the chart will also touch a strong trend line, it may mean ‘either a bounce or a collapse from here’. Because the price in the market does not just move, it looks for reasons . I would also like to ask you here; What will greet the market when this date comes? Harsh interest rate rhetoric? Trump's aggressive economic agenda? Or a recovery supported by positive balance sheets?
CBOE:SPX
by ugurtash
Tariffs Drop, SPX Slips, I Sip TeaTariffs Drop, SPX Slips, I Sip Tea | SPX Analysis 04 April 2025 Tariffs are back on the menu, and Wall Street’s not exactly throwing confetti. Trump’s talking tough again, markets are wincing, gold is surging, and Bitcoin - being Bitcoin - couldn’t care less. But me? I’m grinning like the cat that shorted the cream. The plan said: Stay bearish below 5700. Get aggressive below 5500. Add bear pulse bars and Tag ‘n Turn entries on any decent rally. That wasn’t guesswork. That was structure. And so far, it’s working like clockwork. ⏰ My income swings are ticking over nicely, I’m not rushing anything, and I’m sipping tea while stocks tumble. If we continue this slide into Friday, I’ll be adding more with a gleam in my eye and a sneaky Newton quote at the ready… --- Gravity's Pull – And A Little Newtonian Swagger Overnight futures are down again - not panic-sell levels, but that smooth, sinister kind of selling we like to see when we’re positioned right. If the market decides to tumble out the apple tree altogether? You’ll hear me shouting: "HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM THERE APPLES?" And rightly so - because this isn’t luck. It’s directional structure meets mechanical setups, seasoned with a little GEX wizardry. --- Expert Insights – Trade the Plan, Not the Panic When headlines scream, traders often get twitchy. But this week is proving (again) that reaction is no match for preparation. ✅ Bear swings don’t need news. They just need structure. ✅ Sell the rallies – not your conviction. ✅ GEX often shows you where the market might want to pin – and when you can hit that sweet spot with a Bulls Eye butterfly, the payoff is huge. The secret? Plan the trade. Execute with structure. And don’t flinch. --- Fun Fact Sir Isaac Newton – the original gravity guy – lost over £20,000 (millions today) in the South Sea Bubble of 1720. His famous quote? “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” He’d have loved the GEX data. And probably traded options too. (With a monocle. While sipping tea.) Happy trading, Phil Less Brain, More Gain …and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece p.s. Ready to Profit While Others Panic? Markets are flinching. Most traders are reacting. But the SPX Income System? It’s executing. Like a machine. ✅ Sell the rallies ✅ Tag the turns ✅ Bank income swings without flinching Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action. No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work. LINK IN BIO
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
SPX In Free Fall. How Much More Pain Do We Have Coming?Hey my fellow traders and followers, hope all is well with you and your trading? Let me shed some light on the dark times ahead. I know some of you are asking ; How much more pain do we have to endure? Well, I'm here to give my opinion on what I see in the daily SPX/USD chart. Like it or not we have another leg down to go. Sorry. We have on the chart a Head & Shoulder, or Inverted V pattern, Bearflag pattern after the first round of distribution. Second distribution will show in another leg down to 5343.4 area which will be our TP-1. TP-2 is ready for it?------ 4981 area. Long ways to go yet. I see this playing out until anywhere from April 23 to April 30th. Whether you want to believe this possibility or not, please be careful with your bias. Remember the Daily and Weekly are still bearish so understand the depth we can fall. My job is to tip you off on what is possible. Until next time please trade carefully if you choose as the market is in wide wide price swings that keep hitting retail trader's stops in both directions. If you are going to trade, trade the smaller TF's to avoid blowing up your account. Best of luck in all your trades. Cheers!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trade-Farmer
TrumpFall in the Market due to Reciprocal Tariffs.By Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades The announcement of new reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has triggered an immediate reaction in the markets, causing dizzying drops in various companies since the beginning of the week. The measure has generated an environment of high volatility, with investors seeking refuge in the face of growing instability. Most Affected Companies and Sectors - Technology and Semiconductors • Apple Inc. has seen its shares fall by more than 15% during the week, affected by its dependence on global supply chains. • Amazon and Meta: Both tech giants have seen declines of about 9%, driven by fears over international exposure and rising tariff costs. • Nvidia and other companies in the semiconductor sector: They have posted even larger declines, reflecting this sector's sensitivity to trade uncertainty. - Automotive and Aerospace • Tesla Inc.: The electric vehicle maker has plunged nearly 20%, driven by concerns about rising production costs and competition from local manufacturing. • Boeing Co: Shares have fallen around 18% on concerns about potential disruptions to its supply chain and the impact of new trade barriers. - Industrials and Conglomerates • General Electric: The conglomerate has seen its share price fall by around 16%, as its extensive global operations are threatened by the tightening of trade policies. - Transportation & Logistics • AP Moller Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd: The shipping companies have suffered sharp declines, reflecting the sector's sensitivity to global trade dynamics and tariff measures. - Energy • Chevron and TotalEnergies: Oil prices have fallen by 5% following the unexpected increase in supply by OPEC+, causing significant losses for these oil companies, which are facing an environment of uncertainty and adjustments in the energy markets. - Financial Sector • Asian Banks: Although no specific names are mentioned, several banks in Asia have experienced pronounced volatility, being affected by the environment of uncertainty and concerns about asset quality in the region. • Small cap indices: The Russell 2000, which groups smaller U.S. companies, has fallen 6.6% and accumulated a loss of over 20% since its record high in November, also reflecting the sensitivity of the financial sector in the current environment. S&P500 Analysis Looking at the one hour chart we can see that since April 2nd, a lower bell curve has already started, despite the fact that the Price Control Point (POC) is located in the area where it was trading in the early hours of yesterday's Asian trading day at around 5624 points. This fall related to the news has caused the markets to discount the price by -6.84% and around 2.34% at yesterday's American opening. As soon as the U.S. session began, the conditions were in place again to continue the fall that seemed to have slowed down during the European day, but it was only a bearish consolidation. At this moment, the US premarket seems to have stopped the fall that generated a third bell in the Asian session. Checking the RSI, it has moved from 70% on Wednesday at 18:00 to 23% in today's Asian session. So it could be that today's day will not be as black as yesterday's, but for the moment the bearish mid-range crossover started on Wednesday has only expanded. As for the average volume on both day 2 and 3 the volume has been similar to the openings of other days, so in this sense it is not something that can reveal additional information but only represents that this fall is the result of the “power of fear of tariffs in the market”. A Global Landscape of Uncertainty Trump's announcement has generated a ripple effect in international markets. In the United States, investors are skeptical about the economy's ability to withstand these shocks, which has prompted a search for refuge in assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds and defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications and utilities). Uncertainty is spreading globally: the Nasdaq has fallen by 5.4% and the Nasdaq 100 has lost 17% of its value since its peak in February. In international markets, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX in Japan have registered declines of 3.3% and 4.2% respectively, demonstrating the global scope of the instability. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Short
by ActivTrades
Head & Shoulder Breakdown: Will S&P 500 Drop Another 10%?● The S&P 500 has experienced significant volatility recently, mainly due to President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs. ● On April 3, 2025, the index saw a nearly 5% drop, its worst single-day loss in five years. ● The recent price action suggests that the index has broken below the neckline of the Head and Shoulder pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. ◉ Key support levels to watch ● 1st Support - 5,200 - 5,250 ● 2nd Support - 4,950 - 5,000
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
SPX: When things get scary, get ready!Wave C of 4 is ongoing and quite emotional. Wave B didn't quite get high enough, so chance of a larger C wave is high. This could last for a few days to a few months depending on how long this trade shenanigans continue. But, ultimately I don't think this will be a permanent situation and once things settle, markets will recover strongly. The underlying economic strength is still intact and there is still a lot of money in the system. If the Fed does start to cut the interest rates, it will initially boost the stock market but will weaken the economic conditions significantly. That might play out the final blow off top narrative perfectly. But for now, plan is to start nibbling on SPY when SPX gets inside the box. Some kind of butterfly strategy to limit the downside risk would be the play. Below 4100 will be the time to really panic!
SP:SPXShort
by mukit1
Trump Goes 'Cynosure' of All Eyes as He Walked Into '1930' RoomThe Striking Parallels Between Trump's 2025 Tariffs and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 The recent trade policies under President Trump's second administration bear remarkable similarities to the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, both in approach and potential consequences. These parallels offer important historical lessons about protectionist trade policies. Protectionist Foundations and Scope Both trade initiatives share fundamentally protectionist motivations aimed at shielding American industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Act increased import duties by approximately 20% with the initial goal of protecting struggling U.S. farmers from European agricultural imports. Similarly, Trump's 2025 trade agenda explicitly aims at "backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained". What began as targeted protections in both eras quickly expanded in scope. While Smoot-Hawley initially focused on agricultural protections, industry lobbyists soon demanded similar protections for their sectors. Trump's tariffs have followed a comparable pattern, beginning with specific sectors but rapidly expanding to affect a broad range of imports, with projected tariffs exceeding $1.4 trillion by April 2025—nearly four times the $380 billion imposed during his first administration. Specific Tariff Examples The parallel implementation approaches are notable: Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products effective March 12, 2025 Trump raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on March 4, 2025 Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods Smoot-Hawley increased overall import duties by approximately 20% Smoot-Hawley raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40% (following the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922) Global Retaliation and Economic Consequences Perhaps the most striking similarity is the international backlash. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from over 25 countries, dramatically reducing global trade and worsening the Great Depression. Trump's 2025 tariffs have already prompted counter-tariffs from major trading partners: China responded with 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on oil and agricultural machines Canada implemented 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion of U.S. goods The European Union announced tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products Expert Opposition Both policies faced significant opposition from economic experts. More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Act. Trump's 2025 tariffs? Reaction is coming yet... Potential Economic Impact The historical record suggests caution. The Smoot-Hawley Act is "now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world". Trump's "more audacious intervention" similarly carries "potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system". These striking parallels between trade policies nearly a century apart demonstrate that economic nationalism and retaliatory trade cycles remain persistent challenges in international commerce, with historical lessons that remain relevant today. Stock market Impact Just watch the graph.. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch