The S&P 500 and US DebtThis chart shows the relationship between US Debt and the S&P 500 over the past few decades.
SPCUSD trade ideas
S&P 500’s Next Big Move: 6,200 or Bust?Hey Realistic Traders, Will CAPITALCOM:US500 Move beyond 6,200? Let’s dive into the analysis...
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 is trading above both the EMA-100 and EMA-200, confirming a robust bullish trend. This momentum was reinforced by a falling wedge breakout, a pattern that typically signals the continuation of bullish pressure. Additionally, the price tested the upper trendline twice and bounced off each time, further underlining the strength of the upward move.
Considering these strong technical signals, the price is likely to move downward toward the first target at 6.240 or potentially the second target at 6.391.
However, this bullish scenario depends on the price staying below the critical stop-loss level at 5844
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Disclaimer: “Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on S&P500”.
Modest recovery follows weak weekUS stock index futures were all firmer in early trade this morning, recovering a proportion of Friday’s losses. The majors ended last week on the backfoot as investors chose to pare their risk exposure ahead of the weekend. This came after President Trump unleashed a clutch of tariff threats, primarily focused at northern and southern neighbours, Canada and Mexico. These were postponed within hours of being announced as both countries promised to boost security at their US borders. But the additional 10% tariff on US imports from China did go ahead. China has instigated retaliatory tariffs on US imports starting today. Over the weekend, President Trump announced blanket tariffs on all imports of aluminium and steel, along with reciprocal tariffs on any country placing levies on imports from the US. All this uncertainty contributed to a negative week for all four major US stock indices. This was compounded by Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll update which came in weaker than anticipated. Average Hourly Wages came in well above forecasts, and on top of this, the University of Michigan’s Inflation Expectations survey jumped unexpectedly. This increased concerns that inflation in returning as an important issue. There’s evidence of renewed upside pressure, and all measures remain significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This has led to another shift in rate cut expectations. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the odds now favour just one 25 basis point rate cut this year. This week brings important inflation updates with the CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. In addition, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress tomorrow and on Wednesday. Despite some disappointing results from a few tech giants, this has been a strong earnings season, with earnings growth coming in at its best rate for four years.
SPX WEEKLY PRICE ACTION 10TH FEB 2025This is the price action of SPX at its very best & exclusively for viewers on trading view.
I have discussed in depth price action of SPX and if you have any doubts feel free to leave a message or your comments below.
Pivot Points Part 2: Support and Resistance LevelsWelcome back to our series on pivot points, an objective a simple tool used by many day traders.
In Part 1, we explored the central pivot point, its calculation, and its role as a key reference for market sentiment. In Part 2, we’ll expand on this foundation by diving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point formula. These levels are designed to add depth to your day trading analysis, offering a more comprehensive view of intraday price action.
The Mechanics: Support and Resistance Levels
In addition to the central pivot point (PP), pivot analysis includes three levels of support (S1, S2, S3) and three levels of resistance (R1, R2, R3). These levels are calculated using the previous session’s high, low, and close. The formulas for the primary levels are as follows:
PP = (previous high + previous low + previous close) / 3
S1 = (pivot point x 2) - previous high
S2 = pivot point - (previous high — previous low)
R1 = (pivot point x 2) — previous low
R2 = pivot point + (previous high — previous low)
The third levels (R3 and S3) extend even further but are less frequently reached in typical intraday trading. These levels create a structured framework for identifying potential reversal points, breakout zones, and profit targets.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Using Pivot Levels in Your Trading
1. Trading the Reversal: Support and Resistance in Action
One of the most common ways to use pivot levels is to identify potential reversal points. For example, if the price reaches S1 or R1 and shows signs of hesitation, it may indicate a reversal is likely. This is particularly true when combined with candlestick patterns, momentum indicators, or divergence on oscillators like RSI.
Example:
In this EUR/USD 5-minute chart, we see a textbook reversal at R1. The market initially uses the pivot point (PP) as support and then forms a double top reversal pattern when retesting R1 resistance, signalling a potential upward move. This setup allows traders to enter with a clear stop above R1 and a target near the pivot point or dynamic moving average.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Riding the Breakout
When momentum is strong, the market can break through pivot levels, turning resistance into support (or vice versa). Watching for breakouts at R1 or S1 can provide excellent entry points for trend-following strategies.
Example:
In this example, the FTSE 100 having earlier reversed at R1 and broken through PP, briefly consolidates near S1. This is followed by a break lower – triggering a swift move down to S2.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Target Setting and Risk Management
Pivot levels are also useful for setting realistic profit targets and stop losses. For example, a trader entering a long position near S1 might use the pivot point as an initial target, depending on the strength of the move.
Similarly, a short position initiated near R1 could aim for the pivot point as an initial target and S1 as a secondary target, with stops placed just above the breakout level to manage risk.
Combining Pivot Levels with Other Tools
While pivot levels are powerful on their own, combining them with other tools can significantly enhance their effectiveness:
VWAP: If a pivot level aligns with VWAP, it reinforces the level’s importance as a potential support or resistance zone.
Prior Days High/Low: Pivot levels that coincide with the previous session’s high or low can serve as stronger reversal or breakout points.
RSI: Use RSI to gauge momentum—if price approaches a pivot level while RSI is negative or positive divergence at an overbought or oversold, it can signal a potential reversal.
Example:
In the below example we see the FTSE hold above VWAP and the pivot level – forming a solid base of support before breaking higher. The market breaks through R1 and the prior days high leading to a charge past R2 to and towards R3. At R3 we see the market start to stall as the RSI shows signs of negative divergence.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary
Pivot points, along with their associated support and resistance levels, offer traders a structured framework for navigating intraday price action. By understanding how these levels interact with market sentiment and momentum, traders can develop more confident strategies for reversals, breakouts, and risk management.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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Two zones to long the SPX500Hello Traders, there are 2 zones that you can enter market.
the first one is between 5980 and 5950. If it coincides with Bollinger lower band, it could go up more sharply.
in that case top of red bearish channel could be considered as the 1st tp.
The 2nd option available after breaking the top zone, in reverse to 6132 we could enter the market again. Remember that again Bollinger band could help us to confirm the long trade. 6240 could be used as TP, as well as the higher band of Bollinger band is a good place to take profit.
[02/03] SPX Weekly GEX OutlookSPX shifted into a strong sideways trend after recent market whipsaws, but premarket today saw a sharp sell-off.
Now, let’s break down the GEX levels set for Friday’s weekly expiration (first weekly expiry). These are already reflected in today’s GEX data—check them on your indicator!
COMMENT: This week, we’ve started updating our seamless GEX & options indicators before the market opens . This has been a long-standing request from users—especially 0DTE traders, who will likely benefit the most.
Key GEX Levels for SPX
📍 Highest Positive Call Wall (Call Resistance): 6075
Acted as resistance last Friday, as it often does initially.
📍 Sideways Zone: 6000-6070 (Transition Zone with GAMMA flip)
Wide Transition Zone → Expect high volatility or slow drifting within this range.
Easy flow between positive and negative GEX profiles, meaning potential sharp moves in either direction.
📍 Put Support (Sum 4DTE): 5900
Very deep support—market is clearly pricing in fear of a potential future drop.
📌Below 6000, there are only negative NetGEX strikes down to 5900, which signals a lack of strong support until that level.
What This Means for the Week
📊 SPX opened (gapped down) in negative GEX territory—if buyers don’t reclaim this zone, we are in for a highly volatile week, potentially with a spiking VIX.
🚫 No reason for bullish optimism unless we break above 6070—until then, expect uncertainty and potential downside pressure.
PS: FINAL GEX ZONE COLORING SHEET
SPX/Escalating Trade Tensions: New Tariffs on Steel and AluminumEscalating Trade Tensions: New Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
The week began with yet another significant announcement, as President Trump, during a media briefing aboard Air Force One, declared a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports into the United States. He further indicated that additional reciprocal tariffs could be expected on Tuesday or Wednesday.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price maintains bearish momentum, having already stabilized within a bearish zone. As long as it trades below 6,051, the market will continue its downward movement toward 6,020. A 4-hour candle closing below 6,020 would confirm a further decline toward 5,970.
However, if the price stabilizes above 6,059, it may advance toward 6,085. To establish a confirmed uptrend, the price must hold above 6,103.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6051
Resistance Levels: 6079, 6103, 6143
Support Levels: 6020, 5969, 5937
Trend Outlook:
Bearish scenario: While below 6051, targeting 6020 – 5,970
Bullish scenario: Confirmation above 6059, targeting 6085 – 6103
SPX: cautious on hourly earningsThere has been sort of a mixed mood on financial markets during the previous week. The week started with a positive sentiment, although it was around the level of 5.931 at one short point. The S&P 500 was moving toward the higher grounds for the rest of the week, reaching the highest weekly level on Thursday, at 6.083. Still, after the NFP data were posted, the market turned to the negative sentiment, dropping strongly within the day, finishing the week at the level 6.025. What was the actual problem with the NFP data? The US economy added 143K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see the figure around 170K. This difference is not so huge, so there was no problem. However, the average hourly earnings were the one to spoil the game on the market, considering that they increased by 0,5% above the market estimate of 0,3%. This was the breaking point for investors, where they anticipate that increased earnings will support increased spending in the future period and consequently higher inflation. A higher inflation means that the Fed will hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time, which means that investors need to revalue their positions. And, another drop in the US equity markets just happened.
Despite job developments, which are temporary, the investors continue to be concerned about trade tariffs imposed, or planned to be imposed, by the new US Administration. This brings higher sensitivity to equity markets, which will react to any news to this topic in the future period. So, it might be expected that the volatility will continue.
As for quarterly results of the major companies, Amazon shares dropped around 4% after the results. The company had relatively solid quarterly earrings, however, the push in the price was provoked by providing a relatively low guidance to investors regarding companies expectation for Q1 earnings. They provided only an expectation of 5% to 9% growth in revenues in the first quarter, but analysts are noting that this would be the lowest quarterly growth of the company in its history.
Weekly Economic Events & Data Releases: Feb 10 – 14, 2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
Monday, Feb 10: 🇨🇳📈 China's Retaliatory Tariffs – In response to the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports effective Feb 4, China has enacted tariffs of 15% on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on crude oil and agricultural machinery, effective today.
Tuesday, Feb 11 & Wednesday, Feb 12: 🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies – Insights into economic outlook and monetary policy.
📊 Key Data Releases:
Wednesday, Feb 12:
🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM.
💵 Real Earnings: Forecast: -0.1% MoM; Previous: -0.1% MoM.
Thursday, Feb 13:
🏭 Producer Price Index (PPI): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast: 219K; Previous: 219K.
Friday, Feb 14:
🛍️ Retail Sales: Forecast: -0.1% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM.
🌐 Import Price Index: Forecast: +0.5% MoM; Previous: +0.1% MoM.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SPX500 - Strong sell signalSPX500 - Strong sell signal for short.
Hello traders, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is Stop Loss set when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. My 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
SPX500 Poised for a Breakout? Key Levels to Watch This MonthThe SPX500 remains rangebound but is showing signs of a potential breakout to the upside. In the short term, we could see a move lower, possibly filling the gap before any bullish continuation. If the breakout doesn’t happen this week, expect the range to hold. Watch these key levels closely!
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,989.66
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,932.99
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 6,072.50
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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New All Time Highs There are some readings on the chart that shows that the price might create new all time highs in the next period.
1, With all negative news for the last weeks, the trend did not continued lower, but instead it has created a false break
2, There a many rejections created in the last week, showing that the sellers do not have power to push price down
3, We are still in an uptrend
All this might indicate that the price might continue higher. Probably a strong bullish candle will indicate a buy signal.
SPX MONTHLY TIMEFRAME... GLTAmy forecast on the spx for the next year, after higher highs come higher lows, and based on where valuations are right now the market needs to take a breath. officially bearish
SPX 2025 Target GuideHello Traders,
Here is my Target guide for 2025. Using Fibs and other TA this is bullish targets I see this year. I expect two more waves..One lasting into April and another into the Fall... with this being one of the largest just starting. Its kind of hard to believe right now before an ATH but looking at the last 5 waves bull market in 2021 as a guide, which I will show in another pic below, I still believe we have two more waves to go this year before needing a big breather. Not saying we can't have a nice dip this spring but I'm targeting the one in the fall being the largest.. Will we continue into 2026 at all? We will see as we head into fall how it looks then...
Other than the 2000 and 2008 crashes every year after an election has been very bullish. Now we did have an exceptional bullish 2024 which could of zapped some of the run this year but I still think we aren't done yet. Many are calling tops recently which is always possible but earnings and other data continues to support the bulls ahead IMO.
Zoomed out here is 2021 5 waves
Lets look at wave structure. This is where you can see the separate waves in 2021 and now. Much easier to kinda see that we only had three waves so far with a least one but more than likely two more waves left.
Market SnapshotAbsolute must read article from Avi Gilburt and team
MUST READ
www.saferbankingresearch.com
The below is a quote from the Fed as mentioned in the article:
"Bank failures are remarkably predictable based on simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements that measure a bank’s insolvency risk and funding vulnerabilities."
Now ask yourself how can you use that info to protect yourself..and even make money
Decision on Monday for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD followed the prediction in my outlook. It finished the corrective move down into the lower 4H FVG and after that it went (corrective) up again.
So now on Monday is the decision.
If Monday closes below current price action this pair could go down lower for the break of the low from the (orange) Y-wave.
But if Monday closes above current price action, we could see this pair go up again for a new ATH.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the bigger correction down to finish and a change in orderflow to bullish again. After that you could trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
Monday sell Off? History May Repeat Itself...Monday Sell-Off? This Setup Says It’s Coming... | SPX Market Analysis 10 Feb 2025
Another week wraps up, and as I eye Monday’s open, I can’t shake a sense of déjà vu.
The last two weeks started with a gap down, followed by a bearish finish into the weekend.
Super Bowl Sunday is also here – Can the Kansas City Chiefs complete an unprecedented three-peat in Super Bowl 59 or will the Philadelphia Eagles gain revenge? Just like the markets, only time will tell and we will have to wait and see.
That said, Friday’s setup is setting the stage for another pop ‘n drop. The only question? What triggers the fall this time?
...
SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📉 Mondays Have Been Bearish – Will This One Be Too?
The last two Mondays started with a gap down, followed by a bearish move into the weekend. If the pattern holds, next week could open with a bang – but not necessarily to the upside.
🏈 Super Bowl & The Markets – A Perfect Parallel?
The markets are playing their own Super Bowl showdown. Will the bulls make a comeback, or will the bears crush their hopes yet again? Just like the Chiefs vs. Eagles, we can only wait and see.
🔻 Friday’s Bearish Setup – A Warning Sign?
- V-shaped reversal entry ✅
- Bearish pulse bar confirmation ✅
- Similar daily bar pattern to the last two Fridays ✅
📌 So What Happens Monday?
If history repeats itself, we could see:
- A pop higher at the open, luring in buyers 🏹
- A sharp drop shortly after, trapping the late bulls 🕳
- A repeat of the last two weeks' bearish close 📉
🔑 Key Takeaway: The setup is there. Now we wait for the trigger.
Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? The Super Bowl Indicator suggests that if an AFC team wins, markets go bearish, but if an NFC team wins, markets go bullish.
💡 The Lesson? As ridiculous as it sounds, market psychology is a wild beast. While we don’t trade superstition, it’s always fun to see how random events get tied to stock performance.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the weekly trading session, the S&P 500 effectively hit critical support levels at 5996 and 5936, respectively. A downtrend presently characterizes the market, as bullish momentum is stalled. Current analyses indicate that this downward trajectory will likely persist, with anticipated retesting of the Mean Support levels of 5996, the possibility of trading at Mean Support 5936, and a significant decline to the Outer Index Dip at 5878. Should this scenario not materialize, the market is favorably positioned for the subsequent phase of the bullish trend, with the test of the newly established resistance level at 6083 and revisiting the previously completed Outer Index Rally level of 6120.
