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SP 500 Cash Index / US Dollar

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S&P 500 at Key Inflection Zone: Golden Pocket vs. Breakdown RiskPrice is hovering around the 0.618 Fib retracement and the 200-day MA — Bulls' eye 6.5% to ATH, Bears target a -16% drop. Critical decision point ahead. If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg. S&P 500 (SPX) multi-decade chart (2-week time frame), the chart overlays key historical highs, major corrections, and media sentiment headlines—all critical for a macro-technical assessment. Below is an expert-level breakdown integrating price action, moving averages, sentiment analysis, and cyclical behavior. 📊 Macro Technical Assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX) 🟢 Trend Analysis (1973–2025) The chart illustrates a long-term secular uptrend, anchored by consistent support above the 200-period moving average (blue line) and a decades-long upward-sloping trendline (green). Despite several deep corrections (marked in red boxes), the trend has always reverted to and eventually bounced above the 200 MA—a key signal of structural strength. The current price is well above the MA200 but appears extended, similar to other historical peaks (e.g., 2000, 2007, and 2021–2022). 🔻 Historical Bear Market Corrections (Measured from Highs): Year Peak-to-Trough Decline Event 1973–74 -51.9% Oil embargo, stagflation 1987 -37% Black Monday 2000–2002 -49% Dot-com bubble burst 2007–2009 -57% Global Financial Crisis 2020 -35% COVID crash 2022 -27% Fed tightening, inflation spike 2025 (so far) -21% Ongoing correction from all-time high Each correction marked a reversion to or below the MA200, before initiating a fresh long-term leg up. 🧠 Psychological Sentiment Integration (Text Boxes & Headlines) 📰 Headlines & Crowd Sentiment Patterns 2000-2002: Dot-com euphoria followed by collapse—media and public overconfidence. 2007–2008: Financial crisis—major media disbelief in downside risk until it materialized. 2020–2022: Post-COVID rally labeled as “most hated in history” – a contrarian bullish signal. 2025: Present headlines again show skepticism despite all-time highs – echoing 2020 sentiment. 📌 Insight: The presence of bearish headlines at highs often indicates a disbelief rally, which historically results in short-term corrections but long-term gains if fundamentals catch up. 🔄 Current Price Context (2025) Current Pullback: -21% from the recent ATH. Support levels to watch: MA200 (approx. 4,100–4,300 zone) – historically strong buy zone. Trendline support dating back to the 1980s (~4,600). The market is mid-correction, with a structure resembling 2000 or 2022, but not yet as deep. 📉 Bear Market Probability in 2025? The current pullback is less severe than historical bear markets. The media pessimism and overextension from MA200 could still trigger deeper corrections. However, until the trendline and MA200 are broken decisively, this remains a correction in a bull market. 🔎 Key Takeaways ✅ Bullish Long-Term Signals: Decades of higher highs/lows. Strong respect for MA200 as dynamic support. Recurring recoveries after panic-driven declines. ⚠️ Bearish Short-to-Mid-Term Risks: Extended rally with rising skepticism (echoes of 2000/2007). 21% pullback already in place, which could deepen. Failure to hold 4,600–4,300 range may open the door to full bear market correction (30–40%). 🧭 Strategic Outlook Timeframe Bias Reason Short-term (1–3 months) ⚠️ Neutral-to-bearish Ongoing correction phase, sentiment bearish, overextension unwinding Mid-term (6–12 months) 🟡 Cautiously bullish If trendline + MA200 hold, dip-buying opportunity like 2011, 2020 Long-term (1–3 years) ✅ Bullish Structural uptrend intact, secular bull likely to resume here's a technical assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Chart based solely on the image and technical levels shown: 🎯 Chart Summary: Instrument: S&P 500 Index (SPX) Timeframe: Daily (1D) Key Levels: Fibonacci retracements, 200-day MA, support/resistance zones Price Context: Currently in a pullback phase after attempting to reclaim the 2025 high (~6,151.74) 🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown 📏 Fibonacci Retracement Zones: The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the recent swing low (~4,837.88) to the 2025 high (~6,151.74), measuring the key pullback levels. Level Price Interpretation 0.236 ~5,120.12 Minor retracement – early warning 0.382 ~5,302.91 Medium support; possible bounce zone 0.5 ~5,455.40 Key support – equilibrium zone 0.618 ~5,612.28 Golden pocket – strong institutional interest 1.0 ~6,151.74 All-Time High (ATH) resistance The price recently hit resistance near ATH and is pulling back toward the 50%-61.8% retracement zone, which is technically the "golden zone" for potential bullish reversal. 📉 Moving Average – 200-Day MA: The blue line on the chart indicates the 200-day moving average (~5,612). Price is sitting right on this MA, and this is crucial. The 200MA is one of the most respected institutional indicators—a breakdown below it could accelerate selling. If price holds above this level, we may see renewed bullish momentum. ⚖️ Risk/Reward Profile Upside potential: +6.5% toward ATH (~6,151) Downside risk: -16% toward retracement lows (~5,120 and lower) This sets up a skewed risk profile: unless strong buying steps in soon, the downside is significantly larger than the remaining upside. 🧭 Market Sentiment and Probability Scenarios ✅ Bullish Scenario (6.5% Upside): Holding the 200MA + 0.618 Fib (~5,612) confirms this level as dynamic support. This could attract dip buyers and institutional re-entry, pushing toward the ATH. If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg. 🚨 Bearish Scenario (-16% Downside): If price loses the 200MA and falls through Fib 0.5 and 0.382, then a move toward 5,120 or even sub-5,000 becomes likely. Break of structure = short-term trend change. A bearish engulfing candle or momentum rejection will confirm this shift. 🧠 Expert Insight: This setup represents a technical inflection point. The confluence of: Fibonacci golden zone (0.5–0.618), 200-day MA support, and recent ATH rejection ...makes this a critical decision zone for the S&P 500. Traders should watch volume, macro catalysts, and market breadth indicators closely over the next few sessions. If buyers step in here with conviction, a short-term rally is plausible. However, a clean break below these technical levels could open the door for a multi-week correction.
SP:SPXLong
by InsightMarket
2
June is expected to be bllodbathHistorical trends suggest that June tends to be a weaker month for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 averaging a modest gain of just 0.1% over the past 20 years, according to CFRA Research. Seasonal factors, including lower trading volumes and investor caution ahead of mid-year earnings, often contribute to subdued performance. Despite May’s gains, analysts warn of a potential pullback in June. Market sentiment remains fragile amid lingering Fed rate uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has ticked higher, signaling growing caution (MarketWatch). The potential return of Trump-era trade policies—including aggressive tariffs—has injected uncertainty into markets. Investors fear renewed trade wars could disrupt supply chains and inflate costs, weighing on corporate profits In conclusion, while May delivered a bullish surprise, investors should brace for increased volatility in June. Historical trends, coupled with overbought conditions, suggest a correction may be on the horizon. Expect a major pullback to test previous lows of ~5000
SP:SPXShort
by jamissonbond
SPY update - still bullish!In today’s session, we saw an increase in volume without significant price movement. This could indicate underlying uncertainty or a potential shift in momentum. At the moment, price is still respecting a key trend line and several support levels. Until these are broken, it's too early to confirm whether the broader market is turning bearish. 🧠 I also want to point out that the price is forming an ascending channel, often a reversal pattern, especially when occurring at market highs. While we’re seeing some bearish signs, it’s crucial to remain patient and let the market show its hand. 📊 As always, the key is to observe, not assume, and be ready to adapt as the price action develops. Thanks for watching the update, I hope it brought some insight and value to your trading journey!
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by GonzooTrading
S&P 500 MAJOR REVERSAL INCOMING? | SPX500 SELL ZONE HIT SPX500 just tapped into a critical supply zone near 5985 and has started pulling back. Is this the beginning of a deeper correction? Here’s what I’m watching 👇 --- 📊 Key Technical Zones: 🔵 Supply Zone: 5985 – 6000 (Strong historical rejection zone) ⚠️ First Support: 5436.1 – potential bounce area, but already tested 🧱 Major Demand Zone: 4990 – heavy volume base, ideal buy zone for bulls --- 🚨 Bearish Clues on the Chart: Price got rejected at the top of the supply range with a strong wick. Bearish divergence on recent highs (not shown here but evident on RSI/MACD). Clean downside structure could target 5436, then 4990 if broken. 📉 Downside Projections: First TP: 5436 Final TP: 4990 (big institutional interest) --- 🔁 Possible Scenarios: 1. 🔻 Bearish Continuation: If we break below recent support near 5880, expect speed towards 5436. 2. 🟢 Bullish Fakeout: Only a strong breakout above 5985 invalidates this setup. --- 🎯 Trade Idea (Educational): Entry: Break and retest below 5880 SL: Above 5985 zone TP1: 5436 TP2: 4990 --- 📅 June Will Be Volatile – Stay prepared. 💬 Do you think this is the start of a correction or just a dip before ATH? 🔔 Follow @FrankFx14 for clean and professional chart updates! 👍 Like, 🔁 share, and 💭 comment your thoughts below!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by FrankFx14
S&P INTRADAY corrective pullback - pivotal zoneMacro & FX Outlook Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% decline in the US dollar by mid-2026, driven by a slowing US economy and expected Fed rate cuts. Trading implication: Long positions in EUR, GBP, and other G10 currencies may benefit as USD weakens. Watch for renewed momentum in carry trades and emerging market FX. Geopolitics Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates with Ukrainian drone strikes hitting deep into Russia (including Siberia) and Moscow launching one of its most sustained aerial attacks. Peace talks are expected in Turkey today. Trading implication: Elevated geopolitical risk could support safe havens (gold, CHF, USD short-term) and oil prices, depending on energy infrastructure vulnerability. UK Defense Spending The UK will allocate £15 billion to expand its nuclear warhead program, new attack submarines, and build munitions factories. Trading implication: Likely to support defense sector stocks and raise questions around fiscal policy ahead of elections; may contribute to upward pressure on gilts if deficits widen. Poland Political Shift Nationalist Karol Nawrocki wins presidential election, a setback for Poland’s pro-EU coalition government. Trading implication: Potential increase in EU policy friction. May weigh on Polish assets and zloty (PLN) in the short term. US Debt Ceiling & Diplomacy Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured markets the US will not default but gave no timeline on cash exhaustion. Also noted a Trump–Xi call is imminent, aiming to ease US-China tensions. Trading implication: Uncertainty over Treasury liquidity may raise short-term bill yields. Any improvement in US-China relations could lift global risk sentiment and Chinese equities. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6010 Resistance Level 2: 6070 Resistance Level 3: 6160 Support Level 1: 5780 Support Level 2: 5740 Support Level 3: 5700 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Bullish bounce off overlap support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 5,784.04 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 5,689.40 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 5,973.58 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by VantageMarkets
SPX: tariffs, againPrevious week was relatively calm when macro data were in question, however, the peace was interrupted with a new narrative regarding trade tariffs. The US Administration plans to set trade tariffs with the European Union at 50%. The US President recently noted that these tariffs are currently not negotiable. Such a narrative imposed a drop in the value of the US equity markets. The S&P 500 was traded with a negative sentiment during the week, dropping from 5.962 down to 5.802 at Friday's trading session. Another news hit Apple shares, when the US President commented that this company has to pay 25% on all IPhones which are not produced in the US. After this post, shares of Apple dropped by 3% on Friday. Analysts involved in a matter are commenting that the transfer of IPhones production from China to the US would increase the price of IPhones by 25%. On the other hand, the company United States Steel surged by 21% after the US President's announcement of a deal and “partnership” with Japanese Nippon Steel. At this moment analysts are in agreement that the market is set for a sell-off in case of any news related to trade tariffs. The positive sentiment is extremely fragile and this might continue for some time in the future.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Stocks Have Been in a Bear Market for 25 Years, By This MeasureThe S&P 500 hit a new all-time high in February. However, by one measure it’s been in a bear market all century. Today’s monthly chart shows SP:SPX as a ratio against gold. Using this comparison, equities have underperformed since Bill Clinton was still President in August 2000. It illustrates how stocks languished in the 1970s, before starting an 18-year run against the “barbarous relic” (to borrow from John Maynard Keynes). Then the great equity bubble broke and investors began their first migration back into gold. They subsequently diversified into emerging markets, triggering a secular bear market in U.S. stocks that ended with the subprime crisis. The S&P 500 continued lower against bullion until 2011, when the People's Bank of China turned hawkish. A year or two later, stocks entered a new bull market by breaking above their previous high from 2007. That uptrend continued until late 2021, when post-pandemic inflation lifted interest rates. Gold interestingly held its ground as the Federal Reserve tightened policy, an early sign of emerging strength. The next interesting moment was early 2024, when stocks and the yellow metal both broke out to new highs. However, the S&P 500 still made a lower high when expressed as a ratio against gold. Given worries about the U.S. fiscal deficit, inflation and de-dollarization, some investors may wonder whether the trend that began 25 years ago may remain in effect. Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
6
SPX500 watch 5900 then 6103: Double Golden zone Was/Will be TOP?SPX500 with a ferocious recovery after tariff relief. About to test a most important zone of its lifetime. Double Golden zone of a Genesis plus a Covid pair. Such a tight confluence of two major Goldens is rare. It warned us of a top BEFORE Trump even won (click). The retest could form a "Wave B" or "Bull Trap" lower high. It is PROBABLE that we "Orbit" these high gravity objects for a while. It is PLAUSIBLE that we "Blast" by them but have to retest soon after. It is POSSIBLE that "wave B" ends here and we drop deep for "wave C". I am personally a bull, but we should be PREPARED for a BULL TRAP. ================== Previous Plots below ================== 5901 TOP warning: 5668 Tariff warning: 5100 Tariff Relief Entry: =============================================== .
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by EuroMotif
Are we trading the market or trading our own opinion?It was said that 99% of the traders out there failed to make profits. I pondered hard over this statement and realised that whatever tools I am using, it is equally available to the millions of traders out there. The same for the financial information which I read on CNBC, SCMP, etc. Nothing that I have is one level above others. Then, when I look at the charts, for a long time, I have also convinced myself of buying at support and selling at resistance and gaps get filled up. From this chart, we can see that 3x the support failed with the last one breaking past the support line before staging a rebound. Just because it has worked in the past, it does not mean it will again. 19 Feb to 7 Apr 2025, this must be the shortest bear market in history. Could we witness more of such rise and fall in the coming future? Most would hesitate to go LONG now for one of these reasons : 1) it is reaching the resistance level soon and likely profit taking so price may retrace. Let's wait. 2) Donald Trump and team is getting sued on the tariff matters , volatility is expected in the market so price may move sideways for a while 3) The US market is overvalued per many analysts out there, PE over 28 or 30 and the fall is going to be great like 40-50% downfall. Wait some more or taking partial profits 4) My friends are making good money from cryptocurrency and the profits are huge, I should ditch SPX and followed him The list could goes on......... I am still LONG on the SPX and is now awaiting for opportunities to accumulate. What is stopping me is the gap and resistance which I am afraid of. In my mind, I am thinking it is better to get it cheaper , right ? Guess I am looking for a catalyst or better reasons to convince me to go LONG............. Like to hear some others views
SP:SPXLong
by dchua1969
US500/SPX500 Heist Plan: Grab the Index CFD Loot!Greetings, Profit Pirates! 🌟 Money chasers and market rogues, 🤑💸 let’s execute a daring heist on the US500/SPX500 Index CFD market using our 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, powered by sharp technicals and deep fundamentals. Stick to the charted long-entry strategy, aiming to cash out near the high-risk Pink zone. Stay alert for overbought conditions, consolidation, or a trend reversal trap where bearish bandits dominate. 🏴‍☠️💪 Lock in your profits and treat yourself—you’ve earned it! 🎉 Entry 📈 The vault’s cracked open! 🏦 Snatch the bullish loot at the current price—the heist is on! For precision, place Buy Limit orders on a 15 or 30-minute timeframe for pullback entries, targeting a retest of the nearest high or low. Stop Loss 🛑 📍 Set your Thief SL at the recent swing low (5640) on a 4H timeframe for day trades.📍 Adjust SL based on your risk appetite, lot size, and number of orders. Target 🎯 Aim for 6160 or slip out early to secure your gains! 💰 Scalpers, Eyes Sharp! 👀 Focus on long-side scalps. Big capital? Dive in now! Smaller funds? Team up with swing traders for the robbery. Use a trailing SL to protect your loot. 🧲💵 US500/SPX500 Market Intel 📊 The Index CFD is riding a bullish surge, 🐂 fueled by key drivers. Dive into fundamentals, macroeconomics, COT reports, geopolitical news, sentiment, intermarket analysis, index-specific insights, positioning, and future trend targets for the full picture. 🔗check ⚠️ Trading Alert: News & Position Safety 📰 News can jolt the market! To safeguard your haul: Avoid new trades during news releases. Use trailing stops to lock in profits and limit losses. 🚫 Join the Heist! 💥 Back our robbery plan—hit the Boost Button! 🚀 Let’s stack cash effortlessly with the Thief Trading Style. 💪🤝 Stay ready for the next heist, bandits! 🤑🐱‍👤🎉
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Thief_Trader