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11/04 Weekly SPX Market Analysis with seamless GEX levelsThe U.S. presidential election is on November 5, and this week we can expect increased volatility due to the uncertainty. For options traders, one thing is certain: volatility will likely rise leading up to the election, peak around the results, and then gradually subside as the “fireworks” end. It’s essential to consider this in every trading decision. While the current Implied Volatility (IVx) isn’t extremely high, the IV Rank (IVR) is quite strong at 41, and this is likely to remain due to the increasing uncertainty. Based on the blue OTM (Out of The Money) delta curves, the market is currently pricing in a strong downward movement for the week, aligning with the negative gamma zone and negative gamma profile. For a bullish shift, we would need a strong push above 5845 to enter positive gamma territory (HVL level is the battleneck). ⏩ The 5700 level is a key PUT support across multiple timeframes. If this level breaks, turbulence is expected, with increased downward movement likely to follow, first to 5650 and potentially down to 5600, where larger PUT gamma walls are located. ⏩ According to the 16-delta OTM curve, a close above the previous all-time high is less likely. If there’s a strong breakout to the upside, the positive gamma threshold stands at 5850, and above this, buyer pressure could extend up to 5925. ⏩ I consider the 5700-5845 range as a “chop zone,” where high volatility is expected this week. In this zone, bears and bulls will be in constant battle, and I do not expect a clear trend. I focused on Friday’s expiration in this analysis, as market outlooks remain highly uncertain ahead of the election. The strong PUT pricing skew is a natural phenomenon and is expected to increase, especially since we are in a negative gamma zone. For December expirations, PUT options cost nearly twice as much as CALL options, as shown by our oscillator for 12/20 expiry. There’s already ~6% IV backwardation between the 11/08 and 11/11 expirations, making this ideal for time spreads. However, caution is warranted—front-month PUT calendar and diagonal spreads can easily turn negative if front IV rises more than back IV. Remember! It’s not mandatory to trade during highly uncertain periods! Staying out of the market is also a position, and sitting in cash is actually the safest choice, especially in a volatile week like this. ⏩ You can check my previous week's analysis, every one was accurate, I hope this one will useful too. 10/28 SPX 10/21 SPX 10/14 SPX 10/28 QQQ 10/14 QQQ
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
S&P500: Make no mistake. The bull is far from over yet.The S&P500 index may be overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.424, MACD = 27.270, ADX = 58.374), even on the 1M timeframe (RSI = 73.014) but the monthly rally is far from over. This isn't only due to the post election euphoria but also for technical reasons. Those have to do with SPX's long term cycles and as this chart shows, every 3.3 years the index tops and starts to correct until it reaches the 1M MA50, where the long term buy signal is flashed again. The 1M RSI also helps on long term buy entries as it has a clear Buy Zone, but the same goes for selling (Sell Zone). The sell validation usually comes after a LH trendline is formed. The Time Cycles tool indicates that we can start consider selling after May 2025, so regardless of how high the price is, we will time our selling accordingly. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
2
S&P 500 Eyes New Highs: 43 ATHs and CountingTechnical Analysis The price has pushed up as we mentioned yesterday and is still moving toward a new all-time high (ATH). Notably, the S&P 500 has recorded 43 ATHs this year and continues to reach new highs. As long as it trades above 5931, it is likely to reach 6002 before starting a bearish trend. Alternatively, if the price drops from here and closes a 4-hour candle below 5931, it will support a bearish move toward 5891. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5933 Resistance Levels: 5985, 6002 Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5815 Trend outlook: Uptrend previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
The Trump Effect: S&P 500 Hits New Highs! What's Next?The market's momentum has taken the S&P 500 to fresh highs, but where do we go from here? 🤔 Here are the key resistance points to watch: 🔹 First hurdle: 2-month resistance at 5975 🔹 Psychological level: 6000, a tougher barrier 🔹 2024 resistance: Around 6070-6090 – likely to be a strong test 🔹 Major milestone: The top of a long-term channel on a logarithmic chart (since 2009), not reached until 6750! Eyes on the charts as we navigate these critical levels. 📊 Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CBOE:SPXLong
by The_STA
Is a 5 percent drop in markets on the way?Is a 5 percent drop in markets on the way? Currently, the European and American indices are approaching all-time highs. Right now, the chances of the market losing 5% are much higher than the reverse. One of the main drivers of the rise in U.S. stocks is Nvidia, which recently ranked first as the highest value stock in the world. Nvidia continues to be a dominant force in the technology market. However, investors may not be paying attention to the warning signs: the company recently reported weak guidance for the next quarter and the revenue growth rate is slowing. In addition, the price-earnings ratio is currently at 34, which is extremely high and could indicate a speculative bubble situation. Are the tech giants influencing the market? Let us continue with the example of Apple, one of the biggest players in the technology market. Early reviews for the new I-Phone 16 with Gen AI seem negative, which could lead to a possible failure of the product. At the same time, financial data show a PE ratio of 34 and revenue growth of 0.43 percent year-over-year, which seems unrealistic. These factors combined could be seen as signs of a rapidly expanding bubble. However, among the tech giants, Microsoft has suffered the most significant impact. After losing its investment in OpenAI and facing challenges such as dependence on Nvidia's infrastructure and other artificial intelligence issues, it was recently downgraded to third place. The recent growth of the S&P 500 is largely driven by the Gen AI theme, thanks to the important contribution of mega caps such as Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft. However, this dependence on large companies cannot last: they are overvalued and their growth is slowing. A healthier balance in the index is needed for sustainable growth. Vix and Germany send warning signals The economic situation in Europe is not favorable, as shown by the recent negative unemployment figure in Germany. The German unemployment index measures changes in the number of people out of work in the country. This latest figure shows an upward trend, pointing to a weak labor market that has a negative impact on consumer spending and thus on overall economic growth. Another important index to keep an eye on is the VIX, also known as the “fear index.” This volatility index is calculated using option prices on the S&P 500. When investors begin to worry about a possible stock market crash, they buy put options to protect themselves. This increases the demand for and prices of put options, and thus the VIX. In general, when uncertainty is low, the VIX stays below 15, indicating a macroeconomically stable bullish market. However, at times of increased uncertainty or fear of a recession, the VIX rises above 20. This was evident during the market's most critical periods in 2000, 2008, and 2020. Attention must be paid to the situation in the Middle East, as there are many unknowns. The worst case scenario is that Israel could attack Iran's energy infrastructure. This could lead to Iran retaliating by striking Israel's energy infrastructure and perhaps those of other oil-producing countries in the region. In either case, there would be a sharp rise in oil prices and the risk of a possible global recession, as happened in 1973. In summary, I expect a modest market decline of about 5 percent in November, followed by new highs in December thanks to the markets' traditional Christmas rally. If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click on “FOLLOW” above. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help.
SP:SPX
by Antonio_Ferlito
Bounce from June low or Return to the channel from 2008-9?Hello, As always to my analysis, I cannot align myself to either bull or bear. Anyway. Here is my idea on SPX towards 2024. After I've drawn upward trendlines from 2008-09 bottom and marking the bottom of RSI, I think SPX could bounce back at 3750 (Sep 2022) and test the record high towards 4800. This may be plausible because the market rallies after mid-term election (in the U.S.). Of course the macro is cooling down and when the fundamentals are considered, the pricing of the each (many) equity is still historically expensive. With these regards, perhaps the market would move toward 3200 to make a good return to the rising channel from 2008. Overall, FED has done terrific job to relief the damage from the pandemic. But maybe the monetary easing was little too much. Thanks for reading! I am not a professional but buy and hold investor. As many of you, I've lost quite a bit from the beginning of this year but anyways the journey continues.
TVC:SPX
by NoriBiscuits
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5915 (Wave 5).Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet and the end of the movement in wave “5” is ahead. At the moment I see the support area of 5800, from which I assume that the price will reach the area of 5915. Then we will look for a short trade entry, but for now all my thoughts are only on long positions. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
31
Post-Election Price Momentum: Bullish and Bearish ScenariosTechnical Analysis Following Trump’s success in the U.S. election, the price is poised to reach new highs after breaking its previous all-time high (ATH). Bullish Scenario: If the price maintains stability above 5891, it is likely to target 5939 initially. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close above 5939 would further reinforce the bullish momentum, with a potential upward move toward 6002. Bearish Scenario: Sustained stability below 5891 may trigger a downward move, with an initial target of 5863. Should a 4-hour candle close below 5863, it could confirm entry into a new bearish phase. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5900 Resistance Levels: 5939, 5980, 6002 Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5803 Trend outlook: Uptrend
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
5
S&P500: Rising Wedge targeting 6,000 short term.S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.812, MACD = 16.490, ADX = 32.155) as it maintains the Rising Wedge pattern that started on August 5th. The critical formation though is on the 1H timeframe and it is the Golden Cross that was just completed. All three Golden Crosses inside the Rising Wedge saw significant gains after they were formed. In fact they posted rallies far greater than the push prior to the Golden Cross, which means that we can currently see a move the will break above the Rising Wedge. Until then though, we have to follow the strict levels that this pattern provides us and on the short term we are targeting the top of the pattern and 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,000). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
The U.S. Election: Why Investor Psychology Outweighs Politics?As the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris draws to a close, discussions on its potential impact on the stock market are intensifying. The common belief is that elections like these have significant influence on market direction, with some expecting substantial shifts based on which candidate emerges victorious. Yet at Vital Direction, our perspective is that the market’s underlying forces—those stemming from social mood, collective psychology, and well-established cycles—play a far greater role than any singular political event. The Market’s Independence from Political Events There exists a widespread assumption that major political events, such as presidential elections, are central drivers of long-term market trends. This belief, though popular, fails to account for the market’s inherent self-direction. Stock markets don’t respond as simply as a cause-and-effect model would suggest; instead, they operate according to internal patterns and psychological shifts within the investor community. The Elliott Wave Theory offers an invaluable lens into this perspective. Developed as a way to understand market movements, it proposes that markets progress in identifiable cycles driven by waves of investor optimism and pessimism. These waves transcend individual events and reflect broader, longer-term patterns. Whether in response to an election or any other newsworthy event, the market’s primary direction remains bound to these underlying cycles, not to short-lived political fluctuations. Elections: Short-Term Volatility, Not Long-Term Direction The 2024 election will no doubt introduce some degree of short-term volatility. Markets may experience fluctuations in response to immediate reactions, whether from policy expectations or from shifts in investor sentiment. However, such volatility is more indicative of temporary emotional responses than a change in the overall trend. Historically, markets have witnessed reactions to elections, but these are typically fleeting. A notable example is the 2016 election: though it spurred temporary market movement, the longer trend was driven by broader cyclical forces, unaffected by any one political outcome. This view echoes what is outlined in Socionomic theory, which suggests that markets are less about reaction to events and more about reflecting the underlying social mood. This perspective implies that it is not political events but rather the collective psyche of investors that drives market cycles. In other words, while elections can spark volatility, they do not chart the course of long-term market movement. The Role of Investor Psychology and Cycles At Vital Direction, we place considerable emphasis on investor psychology as the core driver of market behaviour. Techniques such as Elliott Wave Theory and technical analysis allow us to understand this psychology in action, mapping market movements as a series of waves that reflect collective emotional shifts. Whether optimism, fear, or greed, these emotions unfold in repeating cycles, showcasing the natural rhythm of the market. Likewise, Socionomics further reinforces the concept that social mood—bullish optimism or bearish fear—shapes markets from the ground up, regardless of political events. By viewing the market through this lens, we see that people’s collective psychology builds self-perpetuating cycles that continue regardless of transient events. This view aligns with the insights of technical analysis, including the application of Fibonacci retracements and Hurst cycles, which help reveal recurring investor cycles. These analytical methods enable us to anticipate market behaviour based not on who wins an election but on how collective sentiment evolves over time. Tools like these reveal that the stock market has its own rhythm, largely impervious to the outcomes of political events. Concluding Thoughts: The Market’s Own Path To conclude, the U.S. presidential election, while undoubtedly an important social and political event, has a limited impact on the stock market’s overall direction. Political events might momentarily capture the headlines and trigger brief volatility, but the primary market trend persists, following its own inherent cycles. Whether Trump or Harris wins, we at Vital Direction expect the market to continue adhering to its established patterns, driven by the deeper forces of investor psychology. For investors, understanding this can be a powerful tool amidst the noise of election speculation. By focusing on the patterns and cycles inherent to investor psychology, traders can engage the market with a clear view that looks beyond short-term fluctuations, aligning instead with the stable, cyclical forces that guide the market’s enduring direction. In short, trust in the cycle, not the headlines. The market’s true course is set not by elections but by the collective sentiment of those who invest in it.
SP:SPXEducation
by VitalDirection