SPX BACK DOWN TO 3750 HAPPY NEW YEARS !!! TAKE PROFIT AND RUN
Its on range take profits and run spx cant break the 3900 !!!
SPCUSD trade ideas
SELL SPX FROM 4100 OR 4000 AND TP ON 3800 AND WAIT Patience !! Time to Sell or Wait to 4100 anyways Going back to 3800 TP and wait for second confirmation Going back to 3200 !!!
stay Profitable
do not add to losers
add to winners
do not over leverage
do not open many positions
only trade what you know
dot get sentimental with trades . close it if did not work !!!
HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND !!!
SEE YOU GUYS ON PROFIT FRIDAYS !!!
S&P 500 - sidewaysUS stock indices finished lower on Tuesday with the broad-based, domestically-focused Russell 2000 leading the decline. The Russell represents US mid-to-smaller-cap stocks, and closed down 1.2%. It has now lost over 5% since making a fresh all-time high three weeks ago, after rallying 11% in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory in early November. The Dow has dropped around 3.5% from its own record high in early December. Yesterday’s loss meant that the old school, price-weighted index has registered nine successive losing sessions, its worst run in over six years. In contrast, the S&P 500 continues to consolidate just below all-time highs, while the NASDAQ 100 posted its own record high on Monday. Tech stocks continue to garner investor interest, despite their considerable outperformance in 2024. This morning, Tesla dropped 3%, pulling back a touch from its own all-time high hit on Monday. This followed news that the EV giant’s Shanghai plant manager is leaving the company. In contrast, NVIDIA jumped 3%, bouncing off the nine week low hit yesterday. Longer term US Treasury yields continue to creep up. The yield on the 10-year is back to a fresh four week high, above 4.40% and closing in on the potentially problematic level above 4.50%. This level could prove to be a headwind for equities. Bond yields will be in sharp focus this evening as the Federal Reserve announces its final rate decision of the year. The consensus expectation is that the Fed’s FOMC will cut by 25 basis points, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4.50% for a total 100 basis points-worth of rate cuts this year, beginning in September. But likely of greater importance will be the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) where members give their forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and the Fed Funds rate for next year and beyond. This will provide a set of guidelines for investors who currently predict just 50 basis points of additional cuts in 2025. Contrast this with September’s SEP when the FOMC forecast 100 basis points-worth of cuts next year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also host a press conference which will be of great interest to market participants. The prevailing view is that the Fed will accompany the rate cut with hawkish comments, indicating that it’s time to take a pause in loosening monetary policy. This seems wise, given the incoming Trump administration, the recent uptick in inflation, decent US economic growth and the strength of the US stock market.
NEW IDEA FOR S&P500The S&P 500 index is engaged in channel ceiling resistance at 6084 points on the four-hour timeframe, and given the bullish tendencies of the Alligator indicator, there is a possibility of the price increasing to the 161.8% Fibo resistance at 6150 points.
US500 evening analysisTechnical analysis of US500.
This analysis has price in wave 4 of (5).
Wave 4 would appear to be an Elliott Triangle Wave.
If accurate, wave 5 of (5) would provide one more all-time-high to complete top (unless truncated).
Price is very unlikely to tag median line of pitchfork (red line), a bearish side which suggests price should fall back to 5835.6 at a minimum.
Count valid for price below 6197.
Trading with Multiple Time Frames: A Balanced ApproachWhy Use Multiple Time Frames ?
In trading, understanding flow and target areas across different time frames is essential for precision. Each time frame provides a unique insight:
Higher Time Frame (HTP) : Establishes the direction and target areas.
Focal Time Frame : Serves as your primary or main frame of focus for trading decisions.
Lower Time Frame (LTP) : Confirms the HTP’s direction and offers entry/exit points.
Examples: If you are position trading (holding longer than 1 month) you focal time frame is the monthly, the weekly is the time frame that offers entry/exits and the Quarterly is the time frame that establishes the direction and target areas. If you are swing trading (holding longer than 1 week) then you focal time frame is the weekly, LTP is the daily for entry/exists and HTP is the monthly. If you trade intraday then HTP is the hourly, focal is 15min and LTP is the 5min.
🔎 Key Principles for Multi-Time Frame Analysis
HTP Determines the Flow:
Strong resistance or support on the higher time frame drives the market flow.
Example: If HTP resistance is strong, the LTP will typically trend downward
LTP Monitors the Setup:
Use lower time frames to observe and confirm HTP predictions.
Lower time frame bars should progressively move away from strong HTP levels
Focus on Nearby and Further Out Areas:
Nearby areas provide short-term strength or weakness.
If a nearby area breaks, targets shift to further-out energy zones
🧩 Example Strategy: Integrating Time Frames
Step 1: Identify a strong support/resistance area on the HTP (e.g., Weekly Chart).
Step 2: Use the focal time frame (e.g., Daily Chart) to monitor for trend setups.
Step 3: Zoom into the LTP (e.g., Hourly Chart) to:
Confirm the setup.
Look for price reactions and ideal entry points.
Step 4: Set targets based on the HTP structure, while managing risk on the LTP.
🎯 Tips for Target Setting
Targets are often defined where price terminates energy (e.g., HTP resistance/support levels).
Monitor flow: If LTP flow aligns with HTP direction, the trade is on track.
If nearby energy breaks, shift your target to the next further-out area
🚀 Final Thoughts
The HTP shows the big picture; the LTP provides execution clarity.
Always let the HTP guide you, and the LTP confirm your trade entries/exits.
Remember: “Strength is strength until proven otherwise.”
By combining multiple time frames, traders can trade confidently, anticipate targets, and stay in sync with the market flow.
SPX looks bullish#SPX500 looks bullish due the harmonic pattern hidden in the ABCDE pattern which can lead the market to 162 level of the fibo after that there should be a correction
Is the financial system entering a new era?This chart is one of the clearest and most striking indicators of the S&P 500 and Monetary Expansion around the world on a monthly basis.
Is history repeating itself or is the financial system entering a new era ?
Markets are rising again after the Mortgage Real Estate Crisis in 2008 and the Covid-19 Pandemic in 2020. But what is behind this rise? Could the fact that the S&P 500 has held its value while the money supply has skyrocketed be a harbinger of a new growth cycle?
What is remarkable;
In the 2008 Real Estate Crisis, this ratio, which had been steadily moving above the trend line, was pulled down sharply and trapped below the trend line. For many years, there was an invisible pressure to maintain the trend below this line.
Whenever the trend line started to be tested again, this rate was pushed down again by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 .
January 2024 is a historic turning point;
It managed to rise above the trend line after exactly 16 years and entered a steady uptrend. This development sends strong signals that a brand new economic order has been established in the world.
So what happens now?
After testing a new ATH level , what crisis or crises await us in the markets? Or is the financial system heading for a completely different course from the historical scenario this time?
S&P500 entering a new Bull Cycle according to the Dollar IndexThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 2022 market bottom, as it recovered from the Inflation Crisis of 2022. Despite the All Time Highs (ATH) that it is currently trading at, we have strong evidence based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that it is entering a new, more structured Bull Cycle.
As you can see on this cross chart analysis on the 1W time-frame, the market has been on a multi-year uptrend with clear Phases, ever since the March 2009 bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. At the same time, the DXY (blue trend-line) initiated its own Channel Up.
Every time the DXY bottomed, the S&P500 transitioned from the more aggressive, recovery phase (blue Arc pattern) of the Bear Cycle to a more structured (green) Channel Up. As long as the DXY remains below its (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line, the uptrend of the Channel Up is being extended. Once broken, the stock market starts to form a top, which is natural as a strong/ expensive dollar is far from ideal for buying risky assets like stocks.
In any case, it appears that the DXY bottomed in late September 2024 and rebounded aggressively. This is rebound is the exact behavior it has when the previous two (green) Channel Up patterns started. As a result, we believe that the S&P500 has ahead of it around 4 years of growth within this Channel Up, whose pull-backs/ corrections will be the cyclical buy opportunities.
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Scenario on s&p 500 13.12.24We have two scenarios for now, the first one is that if we want to get to the new ath, we need to keep the level around 6060, if that doesn't happen and we break below this level, it is possible that there will be a deeper correction, the first level is 6000, the deepest so far is 5880.
S&P 500 Rally: Why a 5k Target Might Be More Likely Than 7kSince November of last year, the SP:SPX has surged by 50%, and if we look at the gains from this year alone, we're seeing around a 30% increase. Additionally, the rise from August is 20% which is significant in just five months.
Considering the rapid pace of these increases, especially for such a major index, it gives me the impression that the S&P 500 may be overstretched.
Statistically, such strong rallies either follow a deep bear market or precede a significant pullback.
Since we haven't experienced a strong bear market recently, I believe a correction could be on the horizon.
Technically, the market remains in an uptrend, but the price action from August has been in steps. This type of movement often signals distribution and a potential reversal.
In conclusion, while a new all-time high by the end of the year is almost certain, I'm not overly optimistic about the long-term outlook.
A pullback to around 5,000 seems more likely to me than a rally to 7,000.
S&P 500 INDEX ,,, Possible deep correctionAs you can see, the chart has been in an uptrend for about 14 months. In my opinion, the market needs a break and a deeper correction. The rise may continue, but we must consider the high risk of long positions in our trades. Personally, I prefer to enter long trades with great caution. If a correction occurs, between 10 and 15 percent can be expected. Some indicators, such as AO, also show divergence on the chart.
Nightly Predictions for 12.17.2024🔮
⏰8:30am
Core Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
S&P500: Channel Up ready to explode to 6,175S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.112, MACD = 49.220, ADX = 50.110) as it is extending August's Channel Up. The 4H RSI is forming an Arc pattern that is much like the below 4H MA50 consolidation of October 1st - 8th. After that was completed, the price rallied to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension to form a HH on the Channel Up. The 1.786 Fib was the target of the next bullish wave as well. Consequently, we are long on SPX, aiming again for that Fib (TP = 6,175).
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SPX500 forming a Double Top pattern, will it keep going up?Technical Analysis:
================
SPX500 has formed a noticeable double top technical pattern. If it respects the double top pattern the price should touch around 5700. But if it keeps climbing the 6000 may become another support level.
Fundamental Analysis:
===================
1) Israel war seems to be calming, which should reduce the uncertainty and boost the stock market
2) Russia Ukraine war is intensifying as a result of latest attacks. This war has potential to undermine all other good news and could go with the double top (technical analysis)
3) Santa Claus Rally can boost the stock market in coming weeks followed by correction in Jan 2025
===== Happy Thanks Giving to all the traders ====
Weekly 'composite index' RSI signals sell - 2000 repeat coming?Combined market indices divided by DXY has accurately signaled market expansion and contraction for more than 30 years. In the 'Internet Bubble' timeframe, although a RSI sell signal occurred, the market regained lost ground in 2000 prior to a multi-year sell-off. We see a similar run-up, sell signal, recovery now.
Is this time different? Or will we see a decline beginning January-February 2025.
A bullish outlook for S&P 500 trading next weekRecent Performance: The S&P 500 has shown a mixed performance recently,
grappling with volatility yet managing to hold above significant support
levels. After reaching highs earlier this month, the index has pulled back
slightly, indicating some weakness in momentum. Despite this, seasonal
trends towards year-end may provide a boost, although the declining market
breadth suggests underlying challenges.
- Key Insights: Investors should be cautious yet optimistic about the S&P 500 as
we approach potential seasonal rallies. The mixed signals from market
breadth and expert commentary on overvaluation underscore the importance of
strategic trading. Focus on key support levels to confirm bullish trends and
prepare to act if resistance levels are breached.
- Expert Analysis: Market experts express a cautiously optimistic sentiment,
with some anticipating a "Santa Rally" while others warn of the risks
associated with overvaluation. The anticipation of potential Federal Reserve
rate cuts adds to the bullish sentiment, though concerns over rising
inflation and jobless claims need to be monitored closely.
- Price Targets: Based on the current analysis, next week’s price targets and
stop levels are set as follows:
- Next week targets: T1 = 6,100, T2 = 6,200
- Stop levels: S1 = 6,040, S2 = 6,020
- News Impact: Key economic data releases, particularly the Federal Reserve
meeting on December 18, are expected to play a significant role in market
movements. Additionally, earnings reports from major corporations, along
with the evolving geopolitical climate and challenges in China's economy,
will further influence the sentiment surrounding the S&P 500, demanding
vigilant attention from investors.
SPX: in green to end a year?A week after the S&P 500 reached a new ATH, the market slowed down a bit during the previous week. The new ATH has been tested for a potential for further move toward the upside, however, there has not been enough market strength, so the index reverted just a bit to the downside. The lowest weekly level reached was 6.030 points.
The market's beloved tech companies were traded with a modest negative sentiment, except TSLA. A brand new star of the week was company Broadcom, which surged 24% for the week, after the company published that its AI-generated revenue soared by an incredible 220%. Analysts are noting high probability that the equity market will continue to head toward the upside till the year end. Such sentiment will be supported by the expected Fed rate cut of 25 bps on December 18th. However, they are also noting that the switch from large caps toward the small cap companies has been occurring for some time now, and will continue in the future period, supported by the environment of decreased interest rates.
US500 Is Very Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for US500.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 6,060.5.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 6,114.4 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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SPX500 H4 |Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,033.76 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,950.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 6,121.24 which is a level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
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BUY Order US500 DAILY TIMEFRAMEi noticed past day the us500 just pass the tenkansen of ichimoku kinkohyo, so why not take the risk ?
Sp500 for buyThe S&P 500 is currently showing bullish momentum, supported by strong corporate earnings and stabilizing economic conditions. As of today, it is trading at 5,699.98, reflecting significant growth year-to-date. Analysts project further upside due to strong fundamentals, including earnings growth and resilience in consumer spending. Technical analysis indicates the index remains within an upward channel, with potential resistance near 6,100, suggesting room for gains if economic stability persists
