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SPCUSD trade ideas

S&P Head and Shoulders by January - Knees and Toes by February?The S&P 500 has recently formed a solid left shoulder and is now halfway through developing the head of a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and divergence suggest we could form the right ear this week. This classic chart formation is often a sign of an upcoming trend reversal, typically from bullish to bearish. If the current pattern continues to unfold, the index could complete the right shoulder by January, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The key to confirming this reversal will be a break below the neckline, which is the support level formed between the left shoulder and head (aka the pearl necklace). Traders will be watching closely for any signs of weakness in the market as the price approaches this critical level. While the pattern isn't set in stone, the possibility of a bearish trend emerging by early next year is something investors should keep an eye on. If the pattern completes, the S&P could experience a significant pullback, so keep your eyes peeled because it could get bananas. A move above the current zone could cancel out this pattern from forming. Chance of forming: <50%
SP:SPX
by StonkMarketParty
SPX500 Update ideaAs you know, most of the recent market growth has been due to the excessive growth of a limited number of companies, and this will certainly pose a risk to the entire market. Personally, I study market sentiment and the S&P 500 index before buying stocks. On the S&P 500 chart, after the 6030 level was broken and the pullback to it and having a trigger to enter, I started buying, but contrary to expectations, everything did not go well yesterday and the market showed that it does not have enough strength to grow. Based on my strategy, I will have to exit again. I will be in out to break the 6100 level. Good luck.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by pardis
Trading the Santa Rally: How to Ride the Supposed Year-End SurgeThe Santa Rally — a festive event characterized by silent nights and active markets. Every December, traders whisper about it with a mix of excitement and skepticism. But what exactly is this supposed year-end market surge? Is it a gift from the markets or just a glittery myth? Let’s unwrap the truth. 🎅 What Is the Santa Rally? The Santa Rally refers to the tendency for stock markets to rise during the last few trading days of December and sometimes even the first few days of January. It’s like a financial advent calendar, but instead of dark chocolate, traders hope for green candles. The origins of this term aren’t entirely clear, but the event is widely observed. Analysts cite everything from holiday cheer to quarter-end, year-end portfolio adjustments as possible reasons. But beware — like a wrongly wrapped gift, the rally doesn’t always deliver what you expect. 🎄 Fact or Festive Fiction? The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly): Historical data does show that markets have a knack to perform well during the Santa Rally window. For instance, the S&P 500 SPX has delivered positive returns in about 75% of the observed periods since 1950. That’s better odds than guessing who’s going to win the “Ugly Sweater Contest” at the office. Not Guaranteed: However, let’s not confuse correlation with causation. While historical trends are nice to know, the market isn’t obliged to follow tradition. Geopolitical events, Fed decisions, or even a rogue tweet can easily knock this rally off course (especially now with the returning President-elect). 🚀 Why Does the Santa Rally Happen? 1️⃣ Holiday Cheer : Investors, like everyone else, might be more optimistic during the holidays, leading to increased buying momentum. After all, not many things can say “joy to the world” like a bullish portfolio. 2️⃣ Tax-Loss Harvesting : Fund managers sell off losing positions in early December to offset gains for tax purposes. By the end of the month, they’re reinvesting, potentially pushing prices higher. 3️⃣ Low Liquidity : With many big players sipping mezcal espresso martinis on the Amalfi coast, trading volumes drop. Lower liquidity can amplify price movements, making small buying pressure feel like a full-blown rally. 4️⃣ New Year Optimism : Who doesn’t love a fresh start? Many traders sign off for the quarter on a positive, upbeat note and begin setting up positions for the year ahead, adding to upward swings. ⛄️ The Myth-Busting Clause While these factors seem plausible, not every Santa Rally is a blockbuster. For example, in years of significant economic uncertainty or bearish sentiment, the holiday spirit alone isn’t enough to lift the market. 🌟 How to Trade the Santa Rally (Without Getting Grinched) 1️⃣ Set Realistic Expectations : Don’t expect a moonshot. The Santa Rally is more of a sleigh ride than a rocket launch. Focus on small, tactical trades instead of betting the farm on a rally (and yes, crypto included). 2️⃣ Watch Key Sectors : Historically, consumer discretionary and tech stocks often perform well during this period. Consider these areas, but always do your due diligence. 3️⃣ Manage Your Risk : With low liquidity, volatility can spike unexpectedly. Tighten your stop-losses and avoid overleveraging — Santa doesn’t cover margin calls. 4️⃣ Keep an Eye on Macro Events : Is the Fed hinting at rate cuts (hint: yes it is )? Is inflation stealing the spotlight (hint: yes it is )? These can overshadow any seasonal trends. ☄️ Crypto and Forex: Does Santa Visit Here Too? The Santa Rally isn’t exclusive to stocks. Forex markets can also see year-end movements as hedge funds, banks and other institutional traders close out currency positions. Meanwhile, traders in the crypto market have gotten used to living in heightened volatility not just during the holidays but at any time of the year. More recently, Donald Trump’s win was a major catalyst for an absolute beast of an updraft. 🎁 Closing Thoughts: Naughty or Nice? The Santa Rally is a fascinating mix of tradition, psychology, and market mechanics. While it’s fun to believe in a market jolly, it’s better to stay prepared for anything out of the ordinary. So, are you betting on a rally this year, or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s discuss — drop your thoughts in the comments below and tell us how you’re planning to trade the year-end rush! 🎅📈
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
9
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SP:SPXLong
by shanewatson22345
SPX500/ Trades Between (ATH) ZoneS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price has dropped from its all-time high (ATH) which is 6,099. It is currently trading within the ATH zone, which is located between 6,099 and 6,058, and continues to move toward 6,058. For the bullish trend to be confirmed, the price must break the previous high resistance at 6,099 with a confirmed close of a 1H or 4H candle. This would pave the way for the price to reach a new all-time high (ATH) at 6,143. The price is currently trading toward 6,058. If it breaks this level with a confirmed 4-hour candle close, the bearish trend will be activated, targeting the 6,022 level. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6099, 6143, 6185 Support Levels: 6058, 6022, 5971
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
How Short Sales Indicate Buying ActivityA Beginner-Friendly Guide to How Short Sales Indicate Buying Activity █ What is a Short Sale? A short sale is when someone sells a stock they don't actually own, usually because they believe the price will drop. They borrow the stock, sell it at the current price, and hope to buy it back later at a lower price to return to the lender. However, not all short sales are for speculation! In fact, about half of all trades in the market are short sales, which seems strange unless we look deeper. QUICK SUMMARY 🧐 What is a Short Sale? A short sale is when someone sells a stock they don't own, hoping to buy it back later at a lower price. Normally, people think short sales mean traders are betting that the stock will go down. But there's more to the story! 💡 Why Are Short Sales Important for Understanding Buying? About half of all trades in the market are short sales! This means there's something deeper going on. Market-makers (people who help match buyers and sellers) play a big role here. 👥 What Do Market-Makers Do? They offer to sell a stock at a slightly higher price and buy at a slightly lower price. When someone buys a stock from a market-maker, the market-maker short-sells the stock (because they don't own it yet). ✅ This means: When you see a short sale, it's often because someone is buying from a market-maker. Therefore, short volume (total short sales) is a good indicator of buying activity! █ Why Short Sales Reflect Buying Activity Market-makers (MMs) play a crucial role in ensuring there are always buyers and sellers available in the market. Here's how they do it: ⚪ Market-Maker Role: MMs quote both a buy price (bid) and a sell price (offer) for stocks. For example, they may offer to: Buy at $19.95 (bid) Sell at $20.00 (offer) ⚪ Short Sales in Practice: When an MM offers to sell at $20.00, they often don't own the stock; they are "shorting" it to facilitate the sale. This means: If an investor buys the stock at $20.00, the MM's sale is reported as a short sale. If an investor sells the stock to the MM at $19.95, it is reported as a regular (long) sale. Therefore: Short sales = Investors buying the stock Long sales = Investors selling the stock █ Why This Matters Since MMs are involved in most trades, short sales can be used as an indicator of buying activity. The more short sales there are, the more buying activity is happening in the market. ⚪ Dark Pools and Short Sales Data Dark pools are private trading venues where large investors can trade without showing their orders publicly. These venues still have MMs who facilitate trades. Even though trades happen "in the dark," the MM behavior (shorting to sell) still applies. FINRA collects and publishes data on short sales in dark pools. This data can help us see the relationship between short sales and stock price movements. ⚪ Testing the Idea When researchers tested this idea, they found: Higher Short Volume = Higher Stock Prices: On days when short sales were above 50% of the total volume, the average stock price increased during the day. When short sales were below 50%, the average stock price decreased. The Trend is Clear: When short sales make up a significant part of the market activity, it indicates strong buying interest. █ The Findings When short volume is high (above 35%), stocks tend to go up during the day. When short volume is low (below 35%), stocks are more likely to go down. Example: If short volume = 50% → Expect higher buying activity and potential stock gains. If short volume = 20% → Expect lower buying activity and potential stock declines. 🚀 Practical Tips for Traders Investors can use short sale data from dark pools to: Identify potential buying opportunities. Understand market sentiment (whether people are more likely to buy or sell). Anticipate short-term stock price movements based on the level of short sales. Watch short volume data: High short volume can signal strong buying interest. Use FINRA data: You can find free short sale data on FINRA's website to track these trends. Be curious: This data isn't widely used yet, so understanding it can give you an edge! █ Summary ⚪ Short sales are often a sign that investors are buying stocks. ⚪ Dark pool data offers valuable insights into market trends. ⚪ Monitoring short sale volume can help predict intraday stock gains and understand market behavior. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by Zeiierman
2
SPX 6086 - VIX and Put/Call Ratio : the market combines it all.How to read the Chart? SPX in main picture an below - with own scales- you find the Put/Call Ratio and and bottom the VIX. Put/call Ratio tells us, how much euphoric is in the market. Values below 0.65 , market is bullish. VIX tells us, how much volatilty is in the market. Values below 13 tells us normally, that market is prepared for larger or bigger movements. Values also important, for calculate price of warrants etc. Low VIX cheaper prices for warrants. So: in the chart now you can see several time stamps with green marks on price SPX, VIX and P/C Ratio. The meaning of this all: high coincidence with low values in VIX and P/C Ratio will high indicator for downward moves. The deeper values on VIX and P/C Ratio, the stronger the downward move. Dan, 11th dec 2024
CBOE:SPXShort
by Flyerdan
Are we about to confirm a Super-Cycle event in the US Markets?In this week’s update, I’d like to delve into something that I consider probably one of the most important, but in the realm of my career, probably one of the last consequential decisions I will make in my time being affiliated with Markets. The potential of a Super-cycle topping event. This next week is my birthday. That got me thinking about my career. I first became professionally involved in the markets in 1990. But in truth, that story started when I first watched the 1987 movie “Wall Street”, starring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. I remember thinking to myself while watching this movie when it first aired …” that’s what I want to spend my life doing.” Probably not too far and away from many of you reading this, who caught the trading bug. Your origin story probably mimics mine to some extent. But I hailed from proud Austrian/Spanish descendants who settled in NYC in the 1930’s, and didn’t have much, and at the time, my aspirations seemed like a stretch. I went to college and majored in accounting as originally, I thought I would be a CPA. However, an internship at a big 8 accounting firm in my junior year called that aspiration into question almost immediately. My supervisor at the time commented to me…” you interns should pay us rather than the other way around ”. I assumed he was referring to the aspect that interns only complicate things, make his job harder, and I distinctly remember what a jerk this guy was, and that if the industry is filled with guys like this, I had little desire to join that cast of characters. Did my future entail me becoming this guy? It’s funny how life introduces you to people to guide, or divert you, from your chosen path…but nonetheless, becoming a CPA was a dream that I now felt at odds with. That was devasting for me because I felt I was back to square one…until I caught that movie. Leaving the theater, I was captivated, and so clear-eyed as to what I would spend the rest of my life doing. I simply would not be deterred. I got started at an investment banking firm under the tutelage of a senior advisor in the private placement division. I was fascinated by this transaction because it was (for the most part) a zero-risk proposition. I would inform some of the high-net-worth clientele of the firm that by buying restricted 144-stock prior to the IPO at a massive discount to the pricing date of the IPO, their stock would immediately become eligible for sale on Day 1 and at the opening price. The returns were typically 100% or more, and in a 6–24-month period, depending upon how complex the business was and the interest from the selling syndicate. It got to the point after several years, if the private placement allotment was GETTEX:25M or $50M I could place that entire allotment in a 10-hour work day and with only a handful of phone calls. The largest amount of time that passed was between my initial phone call and finally getting the client on the phone. The previous history of being involved in these transactions was a "no salesmanship on my part" required. The calls went, “I have $5M for private placement how much do you want”? I never heard objections like the retail brokers heard… ”I need to discuss this with my wife. or I’m going through a rough patch and have no discretionary funds.” It was here is my wiring instructions, you hit the firm’s account by COB at 4pm EST and the shares are yours. Fail to follow through on the wire, no problem… but I’ll never call you again ”. It wasn’t long before I was informed that secretaries were instructed if I called…regardless of what my client was involved with, put the call through. However, what I constantly thought about was how unfair the risk/reward was to all those who never had the chance to participate in these secretive transactions. The ups and downs of the markets had to make sense…and it wasn’t until 2012 that became affiliated with Elliott’s work. Previous to 2012, the technical analytical perspective was mocked as wishful thinking, or voodoo like. The prevailing thought process was the random walk theory, Dow theory, etc…I was a loyal follower of John Murphy (Founder of stockcharts.com) and in truth he turned me on to Elliott Wave Theory. The tenants of EWT made sense to me. They were routed in mathematics, and Fibonacci, and as a former accounting major, I felt were well within my scope of understanding. The by-product of that relationship was the absolute fascination with investor sentiment and the repeating patterns they tend to create, over and over again ("Self Similar" as Elliott put it in his original work). Fast forward 10 years and in 2022 after an exhaustive analytical look at the sum of the price action associated with the SPX500, I realized that the odds we were entering an area of a super-cycle wave (III) top was incredibly high. Now understand the magnitude of this observation of mine. If my analysis was correct, the last super-cycle wave (II) would have been experienced in the late summer of 1932. Even if we get alternation, this will be the trade of a lifetime. Not necessarily to be short the top, but to be amply prepared. I have discussed this notion with my members for two years so far. Heck, it was the leading reason why I founded EWTDaily.com. If I am right, this will affect every aspect of your financial lives, and by extension, probably your life in general. This week’s update is not to speculate what the causes are, or will be, of such an event. None of us know, and the reasons one could speculatively insert as a cause are adding up each and every month. However, to claim that my members were prepared, is all that matters to me.
SP:SPX
by maikisch
3
S&P 500 Analysis: Bearish Momentum Ahead of CPI ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea from 6058 and still has bearish momentum. Now, as long as trades below 6058 touch 6022, stability under 6022 supports dropping toward 5971, especially if the CPI released is more than expected, which is 2.7%. A 4-hour candle should close above 6058 to have a bullish trend until 6099, in the case of realizing CPI results in less than 2.7%. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: Downward while below 6058
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi