SPX going to all time highsThe quarterly on the SPX is a powerful bullish signal. Nothing stops this train, we are going to all time highs.
SPCUSD trade ideas
We're Likely to Come Out this Zone Extremely Strong. Inside the general zone I have marked in here is where the 4.23 / spike out range of the 2008 drop was.
The 4.23 is a massive inflection level and when we get to a 4.23 three are usually one of two things that happen. The trend either drops by usually more than 50% - or the trend goes onto double in a manner far faster than the previous occasions.
It's difficult to put an exact price or condition on when this zone has failed because stop hunts suck - but if we keep uptrending above local resistance levels then it's wise to begin to consider the failure or the resistance zone may be happening.
I really want to enthesis the historic importance of 4.23s. At them we're usually seen major bubbles end (1929 was a 4.23 top) or uptrends turn into exceptional bubbles (Nasdaq broke a 4.23 in 1996 and went ultra parabolic).
Truly exceptional conditions are likely to happen upon the resolution of this 4.23 zone.
What happens here I think will set the trend for the coming couple of years.
And if it breaks, I think you'll see SPX doubling from the high price.
Based on all historical instances, if we break the resistances markets are liable to go vertical here. Really not a time to be stubborn with a bear bias.
Bear trades into resistance have a good case, but buying all the 76 dips until they fail is a total no brainer and would become insanely profitable if the breakout holds.
Even if we're going to make a top, you could typically make about 10% based on 1% risk per trade 1:3 RR on longs if local lower highs hold.
To my bearish friends, be very careful. If the break comes, it's likely we'll only get stronger and stronger.
update at 215pmmarket may stay bullish into the end of the day but there are warning signs that we may pullback overnight and into tomorrow. Bias is still firmly up however, so nothing is certain regarding a pullback until we actually see one.
If SPX Uptrends Above 86 Fib, It's Buy All DipsIt's really surprising to see SPX rallying again today after the 86 fib hit - with the drop off it holding basic trending conditions.
This doesn't happen very often. When you look at all instances of this in SPX history you'll find about 80% of the time it drops much more from here. Whether it's a bull or bear move overall.
In this area there's a lot of risk of being rugged on the long side because the move is hyper extended / high ATR and even a moderate correction can be 10% - however, if we continue to consistently uptrend above the 86, then it's buy all dips.
When an 86 breaks without any notable pullbacks, it tends to trend on small timeframes. Bluffs bear moves a lot - but keeps holding inside the last low and makes new highs.
This is something that can happen inside of both tops and breakouts. Topping moves can spike out the high by a nominal amount and then drop - like the2007 high did.
Trending moves can break the high, hold retests and continue to grind up, like the 2021 rally did.
In either event - the smart bet is to buy all the dips because they offer 1:3 RR, you'll usually only have to lose 3 of them to work out that's a bad idea and that means it's quite unlikely youll lose money - conversely, if it continues to uptrend, you'll make bank!
If the 86 is not a resistance level, then next upside level is 6130. This would seem best case scenario for bears.
In the bigger picture, SPX has come down off extremely important long term resistance levels. These could be a major top. It's a considerable risk ... but if those levels are going to break, then we are probably going to head into exceptional uptrends.
If we do not top out at the macro resistance levels, then it's probably going to become close to impossible to make money as a bear. And I mean that in terms of over the next couple years. Not just for a little while.
The last 5 yrs have been optimal yrs to be willing to trade both sides of risk assets. There have been a lot of ups and down. I think if we have a failure of the bear attempt here that will turn into a market that's very unfriendly to bears. Even if you only trade good levels you'll lose money.
If you used good entry and stop trailing rules, there've been fortunes to be made on the bear side of the last years.
But if we break this time, I find it very unlikely you'll see me being bearish for the foreseeable future.
The upside potential on a monthly resistance break here would be staggering.
While we were at the low I made a detailed explanation of how my bias over the coming years would be informed by the outcome of the rally. We're into the action end of that now.
If we uptrend above resis, it's buy all dips. There could be a tricky spike out bull trap and there could be an exceptional rally.
In the rally scenario, we'd soon enter into conditions where massive profits could be made over the next 2 year.
Why Greer Buy Zone is so powerfulSPY has just entered the Buy Zone. Historically, buying at this point has led to positive returns over the past few decades. Check out the video and let me know what you think!
SPX Dead Cat Bounce now its time to go down.There was an extreme case of dead cat bounce and now its time for the index to go back down
5/19/2025 sp500It was a great purchase, I bought it based on the balanced fvg on the larger graphic times and the liquidity that needed to be captured on the buying side, it would be better if I posted on lower timeframes to have a better idea of the liquidity regions but it is not possible to post below 15m, hope you guys enjoy
$SPX // May 19 2026 // Analysis & Targets for Day TradersSP:SPX // May 19 2026 // Analysis & Targets for Day Traders
US 500 Index – Upside Rally Facing A Ratings ChallengeThe US 500 index recorded a 2-month high of 5958 on Friday before settling back to close the week at 5922, an incredible 24% rally from the index's tariff induced lows at 4799 seen on April 7th. Impressive indeed.
However, late on Friday evening the ratings agency Moody’s downgraded US government debt from its top credit rating of Aa1 to Aaa, citing a ballooning budget deficit and no clear plan to narrow this in the future.
This Moody’s decision generated some weekend headlines in the financial press around the sustainability of President Trump’s plans for unfunded tax cuts as the US economy slows due to his recent trade tariff announcements. This even led to a comment on the downgrade from the much-respected US Treasury Scott Bessant, who played down concerns over the US government debt and attempted to reassure investors the Trump administration is determined to bring down spending and grow the economy.
Early Monday Trading:
Given the extent of the recent upside rally to just short of the physiological 6000 level, perhaps unsurprisingly, early Monday trading possibly suggests traders are reacting with caution to this news, with the US 500 trading down 0.6% at 5888, at time of writing. However, there is a long trading week ahead and it will be important to see how markets respond once US traders are back at their desks.
Technical Update: Looking For Potential Support and Resistance Levels This Week
As seen on the chart below, the move in the US 500 index from the April 7th low at 4799 into last Friday’s latest recovery high at 5958 completed a rally of 24%, as recent concerns over global trade eased.
However, Friday’s downgrade of US debt may prompt some traders to question the sustainability of the current advance, even concluding it is something that could lead to the potential for fresh price weakness.
With that in mind, let’s look at possible technical levels in the US 500 that can be monitored this week to gauge the next potential directional price risks
Potential Support Levels:
The first possible support level to focus on if a more extended phase of price weakness is seen, may be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of May price strength which stands at 5813.
While by no means a guarantee of continued declines, if closing breaks of 5813 are seen, a more extended price correction may then be on the cards, which could suggest tests of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which stands at 5722, or even 5575, equal to the May 7th session low, are possible.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Previous price highs can be viewed by traders as possible resistance levels, as having previously marked a point where selling pressure has been found, it may be the case again.
As such, with the latest price strength trading close to 5988/6007, which is an area where sellers were previously found between February 26th 2025 and March 3rd 2025, this may now be a resistance focus for some.
However, closing breaks of this 5988/6007 price range may lead to attempts at further strength, with the next resistance perhaps then marked by 6144, which is the February 19th 2025 all-time high.
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S&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit RatingS&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit Rating
On Friday, 16 May, after markets had closed, Moody’s Ratings announced a downgrade of the long-term sovereign credit rating of the United States from the highest level of Aaa to Aa1. The key reasons cited by Moody’s were the rising national debt and interest payments, as well as expectations of a further increase in the budget deficit. Notably:
→ The downgrade was hardly a surprise. A similar move was made by Standard & Poor’s back in 2011, while Fitch Ratings followed suit in August 2023.
→ The official response may be seen as reassuring for market participants. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down concerns about the downgrade in an interview with NBC News, calling credit ratings “lagging indicators” and placing the blame on the previous administration.
→ Despite the downgrade, Moody’s acknowledged the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency and stated that the United States “retains exceptional credit strengths, such as the size, resilience, and dynamism of its economy.”
Stock Market Reaction
The announcement triggered a negative market reaction, reflected in falling prices during Monday morning’s opening session. E-mini S&P 500 futures (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) retreated, as indicated by the arrow on the chart, pulling back from the highs reached by Friday’s close.
Last week, we pointed out signs of slowing momentum in the S&P 500 rally. Could the decline continue further?
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
By drawing lines A, B, and C through the May rally peaks, we can observe a gradual flattening of the slope — suggesting that the bulls are losing momentum and confidence.
The price is currently trading between local lines C and C1, but it is reasonable to assume that the opening of the US session may bring renewed bearish pressure — potentially pushing the price lower, towards the bottom boundary of the broader upward channel (marked in blue).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,789.71 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,630.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,994.08 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Liquidity sweep. I see a nice opportunity for a buy after tapping into a liquidity pool . If SL is hit then I will start looking for sells.
had a dream market went down 80%...an anecdotal visual representation of what that might look like. we may enter another depression, but its weather dependent. entering a 90 year drought cycle aka gleissburg cycle. hopefully i'm wrong.
SPX: in an optimistic moodIt was a good week for the S&P 500, which managed to gain each day during the previous week, surging by around 5% on a weekly basis. Positive market sentiment was supported by easing of trade tariffs tensions between the US and China. It should be also noted that the US Administration signed significant partnerships with countries in the Middle East, mostly in the field of technology and further support to AI development. These agreements will ensure that US companies, mostly in the AI and tech industry, will secure trillions of US Dollars in investments within the next couple of years. In this sense, the US tech companies gained during the week, with Nvidia as a leader in the chip industry, surging around 16% on a weekly basis. META was traded higher by some 8%, Apple surged by 6%, while Microsoft gained modest 3% on a weekly basis.
Analysts are noting that the markets are currently re-thinking the stagflation risks, which was previously priced during the peak of US-China trade tariffs tensions. This was the major catalyst for the positive sentiment during the previous week, and easily might support its continued optimism also in the weeks ahead. Still, it should be considered that the US equity market continues to be vulnerable to fundamentals, especially toward the news related to trade tariffs. Such fundamentals might bring some short term volatility, however, general positive sentiment is currently holding.
SPX Roadmap May 2025Bears got trapped so then the bull scenario is on as long as key support holds into summer
SPX potentials for resistance & lowsI do dowsing & that's where I get my information from. I am expecting a move up tomorrow and then a high Wed./Thurs. with a reversal back down.
I've had levels around the 5450 area even since September, as well as dates suggesting a return to prices even lower from around November/December 2023, which if you recall, was the start of this big run up. I'm only showing the more near term idea, because that's what seems more clear.
The areas at the top are likely resistance in the near term. I'm not sure on timing for lows, but suspect something big in June/July.
I have some potentially important dates including this Thursday, as well as April 18th, 23rd, June 2nd and twice I get July 14th as well.
Has this strategy works for you ?I was quite surprised when one of my followers shared that buying into SPX is boring and has nothing much worthy of bragging rights in social media. Wait, you mean you are buying or selling just because you want to brag? For ego sake ? Value at ??????
Ok, so I am old school and are unlikely to notice stocks like POPMART or Nvidia for that matter. Some of my friends are just busy trading on small time frame of 1-5 mins daily on these stocks, it requires skills, eye power and definitely not for me.
If you had invested in SPX when I mentioned it here , here or here
When you are clear why you are buying and have the conviction that it will continue to pay you handsomely in the long term, then you have lesser headache of searching for quality companies like UNH which plunge so much lately ! Really, you are OK with it after the death of one CEO and then the next is resigning and then getting sued for fraud. Market first react to it be it truth or rumours and then self correct later, that is the brutal and hard to accept for many.
Consider the SPX index like a basket of different fruits that yield you good benefits in the long term. The probability of ALL these stocks or majority falling 10% within a day is RARE except 9th April (thanks to President Trump) but if you ignore that and took that opportunity to DCA, you are well rewarded as data shown.
So now, the market is again haunting you that another selldown is coming - downgrade of US AA1 rating by Moody .
Good, if it comes down another 5-10% , then it is another great opportunity to buy more at cheaper price. The reasons many are afraid to go LONG is because they let the media scared the hell out of them. Bro, that is how media make their money - viewership.
News must be sensational, ya ? The bloodier, creating more fear, uncertainty , the better and the more people hooked on reading, forwarding and commenting on it.
So, perhaps the market will react to this negative news and come down and close the gap around 5666 price level. That would be nice to buy more. Be patient and wait for the green dotted bullish trend line be broken down first.
Of course, maybe the Gen Z finds this strategy too slow, giving peanut returns year on year and prefer to long crypto where overnight millionaires are made and they were sold that dream, fast and furious.
Do what suits you but as always, know what you are doing and protect yourself - NEVER EVER borrow to invest/trade, NEVER EVER go on MARGIN no matter how smart/confident you are on the trade, always use a Stop LOSS.
SPX headed for a correctionMoody's has downgraded US Debt. This news is a catalyst for a overdue correction (Or reversal?)
I published this script some days back. It can predict price inflection points very well
Based on the past behaviour, I can say we are heading for a correction technically and the fill the gap of last week
SPX : Where Where - according to the F
This is a continuation of the previous SELL idea. This time, we go into the details, where we can actually see price action moving in lock-step.
Lets make lots of money. Please keep the SL tight.
Good luck.
S&P 500 to be in troubleAs seen on the chart, a TD COMBO (TomDeMark) SELL has been completed at the close on Friday 16th May
This means a higher probability of a sell zone above that close.
The support is the TDST line. If broken SPX would plunge further.
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Moody’s U.S. Downgrade – Why Markets May Stay ResilientMoody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 is notable but unlikely to trigger a major market sell-off. Here’s why:
Why a Severe Drop Is Unlikely:
Already Priced In: Follows similar actions by S&P (2011) and Fitch (2023); markets may have already adjusted.
Minimal Regulatory Impact: Aa1 is often treated similarly to Aaa in capital and collateral rules.
Stable Outlook: Signals no immediate risk of further downgrades, offering reassurance.
U.S. Strengths Intact: Economic size, resilience, and dollar reserve status continue to underpin investor confidence.
Possible Reactions:
Treasury Yields: May rise slightly on risk re-pricing.
Equities: Modest pullback possible, but no sharp correction expected.
Sentiment: Could revive fiscal debate, but not a game-changer for positioning.
Conclusion: The downgrade highlights longer-term fiscal concerns but is unlikely to cause immediate market turmoil.
#Moody’s #USDebt #CreditDowngrade #MarketOutlook #TreasuryYields #SPX #RiskSentiment
Correction and up for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD slowly went up some more. The pullbacks are overlapping so it looks like price is forming a leading diagonal (wave 1).
I'm still expecting a downmove because of the price action. Price came into the 4H FVG and is showing a bearish doji. So next week we could see a (corrective) move down.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for price to develop some more before you take any trades.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
