If it stays within the channel and thus the extended third wave If it stays within the channel and thus the extended third wave doesn't break, nice development can be expected. CBOE:SPX
SPCUSD trade ideas
$SPX BOOOM Perfectly Nailed the Bottom in last nights video
5505/5485 Bull put spreads were the money play today on that drop. And of course that would have been the place to go long on the day.
S&P500 Do you really want to bet against the market??We have done a number of multi-decade analyses on both S&P500 (SPX) and Dow Jones over the years. Especially in times of high volatility, such as the current ones amidst the tariff wars, the long-term macro-economic analysis always helps to keep the most objective perspective.
And as you see in the wide picture of SPX's 35-year Cycles, the current 3-month correction is nothing but a technical pull-back that justifies the rule. The 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) tends to be the main Support during the Bull Phase and then it breaks, the Bear Cycle starts that drops even below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
Right now, assuming the current Cycle that started after the early 2009 Housing Crisis bottom, will be as long as the previous one at least, we are headed for the 0.5 Time Fibonacci level (blue) and are marginally above the 0.382 Horizontal Fibonacci level (black). This is the exact kind of behavior we had on the previous Cycle with the 1990 pull-back, which as expected approached the 1M MA50 and rebounded. In 1954, the index was again headed for the 0.5 Time Fib and was on the 0.382 Horizontal Fib.
It is obvious that the degree of symmetry among the Cycles is remarkable and as long as the 1M MA50 holds, any pull-back should historically be bought. As we head towards the 0.786 Time Fib though, the danger of staying in the market gets extremely high but as mentioned, a break below the 1M MA50 is the confirmed sell signal.
This shows that despite the recent volatility, buying is still heavily favored. Are you willing to bet against the market at this stage?
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SPX Intraday WedgieSPX threw a wedgie intraday, expected more of a bounce when it broke out, I guess there's no bounce when the algos are shut off.
Also, futures broke support after hours. (ES1! is SPX futures, I plot it all the time.)
I don't recommend going long until after the tariff announcements. This market is super sketchy now.
3-MONTH THE SQUID GAME II 'JUBILEE'. WHAT IS NOW & WHAT IS NEXTIt's gone three months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. 3 months, really? 😸😸😸) since "The Squid Game" Season II has been released on December 26, 2024.
Nearly month later comrade Trump entered The White House (again).
Still, everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t.
Here's a short educational breakdown, what we think about all of that, at our beloved @PandorraResearch Team.
Trading can easily resemble gambling when approached without discipline, strategy, or proper risk management. Here are key reasons to avoid gambling-like trading behaviors, supported by real-world examples:
1. Lack of Strategy and Emotional Decision-Making
Trading becomes gambling when decisions are based on emotions, intuition, or market hype rather than thorough analysis. For instance, Geraldine lost £15,000 on a spread-betting platform after attending a workshop that taught ineffective strategies. She believed the platform profited from her losses, highlighting how impulsive, uneducated decisions can lead to significant financial harm. Similarly, traders who overtrade or ignore risk management often experience devastating losses, as they rely on luck rather than a structured plan.
2. Overleveraging and One-Sided Bets
Overleveraging—opening excessively large positions—is a common gambling behavior in trading. This approach increases stress and the likelihood of substantial losses. A trader who lost $400,000 on a single Robinhood bet exemplifies this. He overinvested in a call option, hoping for a quick profit, but the trade turned against him, wiping out nearly all his capital. Opening one-sided bets or adding to losing positions further compounds risks, as traders attempt to recover losses through increasingly risky moves.
3. Ignoring Stop Losses and Risk Management
Failing to set stop losses or refusing to exit losing trades is another form of gambling. Traders who cling to their biases and avoid cutting losses often face irreversible damage to their portfolios. For example, many traders refuse to take stop losses, leading to catastrophic losses that erode their confidence and capital. This behavior mirrors the destructive cycle of gambling addiction, where individuals chase losses in hopes of a turnaround.
4. Psychological and Financial Consequences
Gambling-like trading can lead to severe psychological and financial consequences. Harry, a trader with a gambling addiction, repeatedly lost money despite asking his trading platform to restrict his account. His inability to control his trading behavior highlights the addictive nature of high-risk trading and its potential to ruin lives. Similarly, excessive gambling has been linked to increased debt, bankruptcy, and mental health issues, such as anxiety and depression.
5. Long-Term Sustainability
Smart trading focuses on steady gains and minimal losses, whereas gambling relies on luck and high-risk bets. Traders who chase big wins often lose their profits in subsequent trades, perpetuating a cycle of losses. Studies show that frequent trading, driven by overconfidence or problem gambling, reduces investment returns and increases financial instability.
In conclusion, avoiding gambling-like trading requires discipline, education, and a well-defined strategy. Real-world examples demonstrate the dangers of emotional decision-making, overleveraging, and ignoring risk management. By adopting a structured approach and prioritizing long-term sustainability, traders can mitigate risks and avoid the pitfalls of gambling.
--
Best 'squid' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team
SPX On Verge Of A Bearish Decent - Weekly ViewThe S&P 500 is pointing at a long descent downwards based upon simple technical analysis. To further bolster our projection of the market it is no secret the recent trade wars are going to have a major negative impact upon the US & world economy for obvious reasons. With this in mind we can paint a clear picture of where price action is going to head. The question remains where do we enter short?
As we can see in our chart we have broke the current upwards bullish weekly trend line #2. Price action has quickly took a swing downwards to our second trend line #1. In short trend lines simply put are the bottom lows of a bullish market. We can clearly define these trend lines over a long period of time where price action has risen, declined, and then continued its current trend upwards. By marking three bottom or more bottoms lows in a bullish market we can project bottom prices of where price action should never cross below. So what happens when price crosses below these said trend lines? Easy, price action will decrease. This is the case on our chart viewing for trend #2.
As for where price action will continue downwards and stop we can simply view the past history of the market to determine this. Viewing trend line #1 we can see this was the bottom start of the bullish market was 2023 Oct on the weekly chart. Price action has increased aprox. 48 percent with no more than a 8.5 percent in the summer of 2024. That is until our King Donny Trump entered office. From the top of last peak in this bullish cycle SPX has fallen roughly 6.5 percent. Price has clearly broken trend line #2 and is now testing the resistance of price at trend line #1. If price shall break the trend line #2 we will easily fall into our support zone #1. Support zones are nothing more than where price action consolidated sideways for a period of time. These zones are like magnets. Price almost always 'pulls' towards these zones as it is a proven history of the market resistance and support.
The earning moving average(EMA) of the SPX is even more concerning. The red(10 day), blue(21 day), yellow(50day) are the thin lines just below the candles in the chart. The EMA is exactly what it sounds like. The past earning moving average over the past 'x' amount of days. Viewing the EMA data allows you see if the price average is above, on par, or below 'x' amount of past days. This is very important key metric to determine the average market price over a period of time as you can imagine. Even more so important is when price declines below the EMA line. Price going below a 50, 100, or 200 day moving average are levels we want to watch. Currently price action has bounced right off the 50 day EMA. No surprise as this is a very important resistance level day traders will buy only to sell off shortly after. Crossing below the 50 day(yellow line) is known as the 'death cross' for a reason. If price crosses below it we can certainly count on a decline in price action into support zone #1 with easy.
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉
SELL IT!
The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn.
• December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn.
When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
Bearish reversal?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 5,684.31
1st Support: 5,508.29
1st Resistance: 5,768.80
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P500 - What's next - Tariffs , Interest Rate decision? As of March 18, 2025, the S&P 500 index has experienced significant volatility, influenced by President Donald Trump's recent tariff policies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.
Scenario 1: Upside Potential Towards All-Time Highs
The S&P 500 has recently shown signs of recovery, with a 0.6% rise on Monday following a 2.1% surge on Friday, marking its best performance since Trump's re-election. This rebound suggests that, despite earlier corrections, investor sentiment may be improving.
If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain current interest rates in its upcoming meeting, it could signal confidence in the economy's resilience amid trade tensions. Such a stance might encourage further investment in equities, potentially propelling the S&P 500 towards its all-time highs. Additionally, some analysts believe that the market's recent correction is a healthy adjustment, and with improved earnings revisions and seasonal strength, a continued rally is plausible.
Scenario 2: Downside Risk Towards the 5,000 Support Level
Conversely, the aggressive tariff policies introduced by President Trump have raised concerns about inflationary pressures and potential slowdowns in economic growth. UBS analysts project that if the U.S. implements a 60% import tax on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on other imports, the S&P 500 could end next year at 5,200, an 11% decline from its recent record close.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimates that the current tariff plans could lead to a 5% drop in the S&P 500 in the coming months, as increased costs may squeeze corporate profit margins. If the Federal Reserve responds to these inflationary concerns by maintaining or even raising interest rates, borrowing costs could rise, potentially dampening consumer spending and business investment. Such developments might exert downward pressure on the S&P 500, bringing it closer to the 5,000 support level.
Summa Money
Our conclusion.
The S&P 500's trajectory in the near term is intricately linked to the outcomes of trade policies and monetary decisions. While the market has demonstrated resilience, the dual forces of tariff-induced economic adjustments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance will play pivotal roles in determining whether the index ascends towards new highs or retreats to key support levels.
In these volatile times, it is definitely a tough time to predict how the market would move , so this is why we are looking into the different options as how things would pan-out in the upcoming months in regards to the S&P500!
Positive outcome - Enter here with a target just below the ATH at 6,000 points, with your stop loss being above the bottom at 5,125 points
Negative outcome - Entere here with a target around the bottom at 5,000 , with a stop loss around the resistnace 5,750
I am interested to hear out your thoughs on this analysis and overall the idea behind whats happening with the U.S. economy and what would be the reaction for the S&P500!
SPX Aiming Lower LowsHi there,
The S&P 500 has pushed below the significant resistance level of 5821.54, with an immediate target at 5370.17 before reaching major support around the 5218 region. We could potentially see a further drop to 4500, with 4719.87 on the way.
It will require monitoring, and the bias is at 4026.79.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,405.74
1st Support: 5,176.07
1st Resistance: 5,769.85
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SPX update - retesting 6000 before 6340In my updated view we can see a retest o 5995-6000 area before dump to 3340 where last bullish leg will start to new ATH @6444
SPX - Melt up & Crash series [3]Blue parallel channel held perfectly while many were bearish!
Now has a date with the top rail, maybe at 2.618 intersection who knows...
Expanding megaphone (green) had false breakdown, if it breaks back in and upwards = huge bullish move.
So much room on the RSI to run with huge positive divergence.
Not financial advice.
Amazes me how long these patterns take to form, for them to be concrete and actionable. Hopefully this series is the last one I post. Realistically just waiting for this low to be set. Think this could be it.
Stocks jittery as markets await tariffs Volatility was again the name of the game in equity markets as investors braced for President Donald Trump’s impending tariff announcement, which promises to reshape global trade dynamics. With uncertainty swirling around the scope and impact of his so-called reciprocal tariffs, there remains little consensus on how markets will react as the final deliberations unfold.
A few headlines that have come out:
Trump administration official has confirmed that Amazon has put in a bid to buy TikTok
Tesla Inc. jumped 5% on hopes Elon Musk will refocus on the carmaker as a news report suggested his time as a top adviser to Trump may end soon.
US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% -- Sky News
The bands will differ by both country and industry depending on how the White House views barriers to trade.
CNBC: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING REVOCATION OF TARIFF EXEMPTIONS FOR CHEAP SHIPMENTS FROM CHINA - SOURCE
Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight - Reuters
The key resistance area to watch today is between 5670 to 5695 - as shaded in yellow on the chart. This zone was previously support and has now turned into a bit of resistance, capping today's gains. Will the selling pressure resume from here or do we go back above it?
It all depends on severity of tariffs.
In the event we go lower, then the area between 5500 to 5550 is the key support zone to watch.
In the event the market go higher, and break through 5670 to 5695 zone, then the 200-day average and prior resistance near 5770-5787 will come into focus next.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SPX to find sellers at previous resistance?SPX500USD - 24h expiry
Daily signals are bearish.
Short term bias has turned negative.
Previous resistance located at 5700.
20 1day EMA is at 5699.8.
5705.4 has been pivotal.
We look to Sell at 5699.5 (stop at 5743.5)
Our profit targets will be 5585.5 and 5565.5
Resistance: 5630.0 / 5658.9 / 5700.0
Support: 5602.4 / 5564.3 / 5495.3
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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5600 Really needs to hold...If this 5600 level breaks, I expect the decline to continue until may with support around 5400, 5200, and 5000 with 5200 being most likely.
The market was hoping for consistent messaging from the Fed, which it did not get. The data shows that inflation is accelerating in the face of job cuts which makes their job very difficult. The are not helping with their rhetoric that the data is 'transitory'. The market is not enjoying their 'vibe' driven analysis.
Volatility is bid for April and May, giving bears ammo for another leg lower.
vixcentral.com
The measured move and several demand zones sit around 5200.
SnP500: A case for going longYesterday the index was bought up strongly from the lows with solid volume.
I'm in favor of further growth.
Set the stop loss below yesterday's low.
SPX next 5 years outlookIn this chart I show my SPX long term view from covid recovery to about 2030.
SPX is moving in a big rising wedge, I think that on the long term prospective we're still in the 3rd bullish wave targeting 6440 area. From there I see a retracement (4th wave) to 4800 area before last bullish 5th wave to 7400 area.
From 7440 I see a sharp bearish retracement , the breaking of rising wedge will lead spx to target 4200 area.
On the medium term I think that we've to test 3320 area before targeting 6440 (completion of 3rd wave), but on the short term I see a retracement to retest 6000 area before dump to 3320.
Short SPX500Technical and fundamentals with short term sentiment open a tactical short position from here.
US500 Price ActionHello Trader,
As you can see, the market is currently moving to the downside, approaching a clearly identified Demand Zone. Remember, as I always emphasize: no liquidity, no valid zone. Therefore, I've also marked liquidity levels located just above this Demand Zone, along with a suggested safe Stop Loss (SL) placement. However, please keep in mind that no level is truly "safe" in trading, which is precisely why we always use stop losses and actively manage risk on every trade.
Additionally, I've highlighted two potential Take Profit (TP) areas: one where you might consider closing your trade early for safety, and another where you could hold your position if price action continues to move favorably.
As always, avoid greed, prioritize risk management, and trade responsibly.
Wishing you all the best and happy trading!
Thank you.
