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US 500 (SPI) / US Dollar

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SPX Distribution day? I made an analysis on the SPX chart, and will be cautious about the latest index movement. I’ve been studying the SPX chart since the bull run began in October 2023, and the recent daily candlestick action with rising volume is concerning. Over the last 1.5 years, I identified five major distribution days. In the previous four, we didn’t see a follow-up surge in volume despite the price dropping below the 50-day SMA, nor did we see divergences in S5FI (S&P 500 trading above their 50-day simple moving average) or S5TH (S&P 500 trading above their 200-day SMA). However, from late December until now, SPX hasn’t made a higher high and seems stuck in a range. Over the last four sessions, all red candles showed increasing volume, each surpassing the 50-day average volume. I also see a divergence in S5FI and S5TH since September, which could signal either a simple bull-run pullback or a larger correction. For now, I’m sitting on cash, monitoring potential catalysts, and ready to initiate a small short position if more bearish signals appear.
SP:SPXShort
by Matthew852
Major pullback from AprilAs of now, the S&P 500 stands at a notable 6,013.12. Recent technical analysis suggests potential exhaustion in the market. Key indicators to watch include the moving averages—if the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term average, we may see a "death cross," signaling a bearish trend. Reflecting on past experiences, on February 3, 2020, the S&P 500 peaked at 3,376 before dropping to 2,439 by early April 2020—a significant decline of about 27.8%. The market then almost doubled, reaching 4,796 on December 1, 2021. However, it dropped again to 3,517 by October 2022, a decline of approximately 26.7%. Since then, the market has nearly doubled again, bringing us to today's high levels. My thesis is that we will see a pullback soon, perhaps from April of ~20%!!
SP:SPXShort
by jamissonbond
1
S&P500 Bearish Strengthens Amid US-China Tech War EscalationMarket Overview: US-China Tech War Intensifies Amid Global Market Decline European and Global Market Outlook – February 25, 2025 A wave of risk sentiment is sweeping across Asian markets as tensions between the United States and China escalate. The U.S. has intensified its technology war with China, targeting sectors including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and aerospace. This geopolitical pressure is contributing to a broad risk-off sentiment across global financial markets. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The S&P 500 has confirmed its bearish momentum, despite cutting 2.3% since Last Friday as we mentioned , with the price stabilizing below the 6,010 level, reinforcing the likelihood of testing 5,979. A confirmed 4H or 1H candle close below 5,979 would validate a further bearish extension toward 5,920. Bullish Reversal Scenario: For the S&P 500 to shift towards a bullish structure, it must reclaim and break above the pivot zone (6,010 - 6,031). A successful breakout above this range could lead the index toward 6,068 and 6,102. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 6031 | 6068 | 6102 Pivot Zone: 6010 Support: 5979 | 5952 | 5920 Directional Bias: Bearish – The trend remains downward as long as the price continues to trade below 6,010. Breaking below 5,979 will open the door for further declines toward 5,920. ⚠️ Market Outlook: Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China could further fuel volatility in equity markets, with investors remaining cautious in response to ongoing economic and technological disputes.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
1
SPX's Multi Month Stall at Resistance. A decision in SPX has to be due soon. For 4 months now it's barcoded at the same 1.61 general inflection zone. From here I find we typically reject or we trade to the 2.20. Both of these would be a 8 -10% move - it's just a question of to which side. SPX has started to shape up a lot like a break. If the bear thesis is correct it needs to be evidenced by a big red monthly bar. I'd estimate it has to be something in the range of about 8% and sometime March/April. Should be fairly obvious. And we're getting to the levels where the break is close to being "Confirmed" (not that I rank the idea of confirmation too high, many of the worst trades ever were "confirmed"). 9/10 sketchy. Looking really sketchy out there.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
1
Two Possible Trades - Which one will trigger?Two Possible Trades – Which One Will Trigger? | SPX Market Analysis 25 Feb 2025 Monday came in swinging, continuing Friday’s move and landing price right at the range low target. And what do we get? A beautiful V-shaped reaction—just like we discussed in detail during our Fast Forward mentoring call. Now we have two key scenarios unfolding, mirroring what we saw at the upper boundary of the range during the bullish breakout setup. Will we get a bullish turn, or will the market break down? Triggers are set, charts are marked—now we wait. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: Monday continued Friday’s momentum, taking price straight into the range low target, where we saw a classic V-shaped price reaction. While no pulse bars have appeared yet, the location of this reaction is ideal, lining up perfectly with our 6 money-making patterns. This gives us two possible trade setups, similar to what we saw at the upper range boundary during the last breakout assessment. Scenario 1 – The Bullish Turn ✅ V-shaped reaction at a key level ✅ If confirmed, we could see a move back up into the range ✅ Waiting for additional confirmation (pulse bars, momentum shift, etc.) Scenario 2 – The Bearish Breakout ✅ If price breaks below the range low, it confirms a downside move ✅ A clean breakdown could lead to a continuation of bearish momentum ✅ This would be a mirror setup of the bullish breakout from earlier Right now, both triggers are marked up on the charts, waiting for price to confirm the next move. Until then, it’s a watch-and-wait game, keeping an eye on any momentum shifts or additional signals. --- Fun Fact Did You Know the phrase “buy the rumour, sell the news” originated in the 18th century? It was coined to describe the sharp market moves surrounding Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo. Traders in the know made fortunes buying ahead of the news and selling into the ensuing hype! The phrase became famous when financier Nathan Rothschild supposedly capitalised on early news of Napoleon's defeat in 1815. He bought up British government bonds while others panicked and sold. Once the victory became public, prices soared, making Rothschild a fortune. It’s a timeless reminder to think ahead in the markets.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
SPX at CrossRoadThe chart illustrates the logarithmic scale of the S&P 500 index since 1933. From 1933 to 1997, the index consistently followed an upward-sloping channel. Key years such as 1942, 1949, 1974, and 1982 saw the index test the lower boundary of this channel. However, since 2009, following the introduction of quantitative easing (QE), the uptrend has shifted to a steeper slope. With the Federal Reserve hesitant to lower interest rates and the forces of de-globalization gaining momentum, the question arises: Can artificial intelligence (AI) emerge as the savior, propelling the S&P 500 to new highs? Or will the growing debt burden, combined with tighter monetary policies and the effects of de-globalization, finally break the index's back? What are your thoughts? Please share. I believe interest rates will continue to climb as investors demand higher premiums to compensate for heightened risks in the debt market. This could exert considerable pressure on stocks.
SP:SPXShort
by bruceyam
1
S&P500 | Historic Trends, Consolidation & Bull Flags [2030 END]I have been wanting to put my thoughts on the historic tends observed in the S&P500 in a post for some time and decided to focus this discussion on the relationship observed between S&P 500: * Bull Flag runs (~17 to 25) years in length * Consolidation Period (~13 to 15) years in length * 27 Period (2 Monthly) SMA - Aqua Colored Line * RSI NOTE: Chart is looking at logarithmic price of the S&P500 on the 2 Monthly time period. S&P 500 HISTORY | 27P(2M) SMA, CONSOLIDATION PERIOD & BULL FLAG RUNS SINCE 1943 The below images show 'Consolidation Periods' governed by 'Black Trend Lines', 'Bull Flags' (Orange / Navy / Aqua) governed by colored measured moves between these periods and the 27P(2M) SMA in Aqua. Key Takeaways for Longterm Investors Key take aways Looking at the S&P 500 from such a zoomed-out perspective: * CONSOLIDATION: Periods of consolidation required investors to proactively manage their investment. A buy and hold approach left investors' money in limbo not doing a lot over these time periods. Investors who could identify the S&P was in a period of consolidation did well by selling at the upper and buying at the lower trend lines once they became apparent. * BULL FLAG: Run periods rewarded the discipline 'Dimond hands' investor, providing key holds at the 27P(2M) SMA and future higher highs. A good strategy during these periods was to accumulate at the 27P(2M) SMA. RSI ANALYSIS As we are currently in a Bull Flag period for the S&P500 (Aqua Measured Moved), lets now look at the relationship between the RSI and price to identify key historic behavior which may be useful with current price behavior. It is notable that historically the RSI tends to oscillate between rising and falling channels when exhibiting price Consolidation / Bull Flag price behavior. Bull Flag (1943 to 1968) – 25 years Focusing on the orange measured move or first Bull Flag period from approximately 1943 to 1968, observable characteristics include: * At the consolidation period price break out, RSI continued to set higher highs until peaking (with the first lower high) at Point 1 - this marked approximately the halfway point of the bull run period. * Retest and hold behavior with the 27P(2M) SMA for the entirety of the run * End of bull run period and start of consolidation period confirmed with price breaking below and first candle open and close below the 27P(2M) SMA at Point 2 . The Stochastic RSI has helped to identify if price is set to put in a higher low during bull flag periods and has been a reliable indicator in confluence with the 27P(2M) SMA.  Consolidation Period (1968 to 1983) – 15 Years Consolidation period starts at the end of the prior bull flag and confirmed at Point 2 where price has broken below and opened and closed the first candle below the 27P(2M) SMA. This has been marked with the aqua vertical line on the chart. Price is confirmed to have left the consolidation zone once it breaks to the upside of the black trend line (in some cases with a retest). Change in price behavior from ranging to bullish within the consolidation period has been identifiable historically with a break above the 27P(2M) SMA followed up by a retest and holding the 27P(2M) SMA as support. Price has tended to range between the consolidation period trendlines until this price behavior is achieved. The Stochastic RSI has helped to identify if price is set to put in a low during consolidation periods and has been a reliable indicator in confluence with the lower black trend line.  It is notable the Momentum Bias Index has printed RED bars on the histogram during all historic consolidation periods reviewed (2 in total) when the bottom of the consolidation period has been set. Similar observations have been observed in the below two future consecutive Macro Bull Flag and Consolidation periods reviewed in this analysis. Bull Flag (1983 to 2000) – 17 years Consolidation Period (2000 to 2013) – 13 years CURRENT PERIOD | WHERE ARE WE NOW? BULL FLAG TO FINISH IN 2030 ESTIMATION? If the S&P 500 is to continue historic trend and continue consecutive Bull Flag / Consolidation periods, this would suggest the current bull flag run could end in 2030 and the next consolidation period would begin. This is based on the same bull flag measured move approach and estimations of the bull flag structures discussed in the prior bull flag / consolidation periods. It is noted that the prior consolidation period (2000 to 2013) left this zone and peaked at the RSI high relatively early compared to prior periods. According to the review of other bull flags this suggests the middle part of the bull flag run occurred in 2015. It is unclear if this would result in a reduced bull flag period run and a material lower high than the measured moved. It is also noted at current prices a retest and hold of the 27P (2M) SMA would result in a 30% drop. A move in the market of this magnitude would result in some interesting news headlines but historically would show nothing out of the ordinary for S&P500 price behaviour.
CBOE:SPX
by Brodie
S&P 500 key levels to watch The S&P 500 has bounced off its earlier lows in the last couple of hours, after dipping to take out liquidity below Friday's low (6011) and key support around 6000. Where do we go from here? On Friday, the index tumbled sharply to close near the lows. Whether that marked a near-term market top remains to be seen. A downside follow-through would attract selling activity, but the long-term trend remains bullish. The short-term trend line has been broken, which could be a bearish reversal signal, as too could be the bearish engulfing weekly candle. Given how strong the markets have been in recent months, a correction might be welcomed even by bullish investors as it could create better buying opportunities. On the daily chart, the key level to watch is 6000—a psychologically significant level. This level has acted as both resistance and support multiple times. A daily close below this level could potentially lead to a decline towards the lower end of the recent range circa 5830, with interim downside target being at 5908. Below that, the 200-day moving average may come into focus if selling pressure continues. Resistance is seen at 6033 and then 6075, levels that were formerly either support or resistance. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
2025 - 2026 Roadmap2025: - Cut Gov Spending - (Lower GPD) - Cut Gov Temp Workers - (Lower Employment) - Deport Service Workers - (Increasing inflation) - Tarif's - (One time inflation event) Cutting government spending should cause a recession. Note march 2025 : Drop and Bounce from seasonality. 2026: - '2020 Fed Carry' removed - Call of 5 yr 1.5% loans. - Called loans result in equity sell off. - Treasury funds gov with 30 year - Incentive to lower rates first. The government plans to switch from using 2-year bonds to 30-year bonds to fund itself by the end of 2025 or early 2026, under an agreement between the Treasury and the Fed. The downside? With 30-year bonds, they'll be stuck paying today's high 5% interest rate for three decades. Lowering the rate first would be better and save money, which is possible if a recession happens before the switch. To help, the Fed agreed to leave and make room in the 30-year bond market.
SP:SPXShort
by NicTheMajestic
SPX: another not-happy FridayMarkets have been playing a bit of a ping-pong game since the start of the year. Uncertainty is never a good world for financial markets, so it was this Friday. In the same week, the S&P 500 reached a fresh, new all time highest level at 6.148 and a significant pull-back on Friday. One of the extremely spooky works since recently are tariffs, which a new US Administration is using too frequently, for the taste of investors. The S&P 500 lost 1,71% at Friday's trading session, while other US indices were also somewhere in this range. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was published during the week, showing not some happy figures about current consumer sentiment. In addition, consumers are expecting further increase in inflation, higher from previous releases. The 5 years inflation expectations currently stands at 3,5%, for which analysts are noting, is the highest level since 1995. The highest contributors to index drop on Friday were tech companies, which are currently ones which hold the highest participation. Other sectors were also affected, however, those related to major supplies were the ones that gained during the week. The consumer sector, healthcare and utilities were the ones that investors bought the most. It was sort of a move toward basics. As analysts are noting, the defensive sectors are the ones which gain during times of fears on future economic growth. The week ahead will be a sensitive one for financial markets, as PCE data are scheduled for a release. The start of the week might bring some relaxation from Friday's negative sentiment, however, it will not be a sign that the positive sentiment is back, but only a sort of short term positioning for PCE data. Depending on final PCE data, a higher move could be expected toward either side. The higher market sensitivity will continue as long as uncertainties are existing either through trade tariffs, or through inflation data.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.3-7.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 8th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13—still in Phase 1. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels were outlined in the previous post. Based on cycle timing and structure, signs of Phase 1 completion are emerging. 👉 Retrograde Venus pushed indices lower after Friday’s attempt to bounce. On March 3, the extreme forecast provided an excellent intraday shorting opportunity right after the regular trading session opened—the market never looked back. ⚠️ Short positions remain from January 24 or the triple top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 17—a classic setup coinciding with the start of retrograde Mercury. At the beginning of the week of March 10, there’s a chance of retrograde Venus retracement lagging upwards (mentioned in the last report). This could mark the closure of Phase 1 of the base cycle.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
Update S&P 500, Continuesly in selling pressureThis chart represents a technical analysis of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the 1-hour timeframe. It illustrates a bearish market structure, with key levels of resistance and support, as well as a projected price movement. 1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis The price is moving within a well-defined descending channel, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, which indicates a prevailing downtrend. The price has recently rebounded from the lower boundary of the channel and is approaching a key resistance zone. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone (5,816 – 5,829): Highlighted in red, this zone represents a potential supply area where selling pressure is expected. A rejection from this level could reinforce the ongoing bearish trend. Support Zone (5,658 – 5,765): Marked in gray, this area represents a potential demand zone where buyers may step in. If price reaches this level, a reversal or further downside continuation could occur. 3. Projected Price Movement Based on the chart annotations, the expectation is for price to test the resistance zone (5,816 – 5,829), face rejection, and decline toward the support zone (5,658 – 5,765). The black arrow represents the anticipated downward movement following a rejection at resistance. The descending channel’s upper trendline further reinforces the likelihood of a bearish reaction. 4. Additional Technical Indicators The orange line appears to be a dynamic resistance level, possibly a moving average or an indicator tracking trend shifts. The right-hand labels indicate key price levels, including the recent high (6,100.96), current price (5,766.18), and support levels. 5. Conclusion & Trade Implications If the price rejects the resistance zone, it could present a short-selling opportunity with a target toward the support zone. A break above the 5,829 resistance level could invalidate the bearish setup and indicate a potential trend reversal. Traders should consider additional confirmation signals, such as candlestick patterns or volume dynamics, before executing trades. This analysis provides a structured approach to assessing price action and potential trade opportunities based on market behavior within a downtrend.
SP:SPX
by MrGeorge_Fx1
SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down? Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition: 📈 Current Setup: 📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. previous touch of this ascending channel) Check out our previously published long term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication). 🔹 Right now, we can see price is testing the channels lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluence of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here. 📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake out, or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimise risk. 📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones): 🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication) 🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears 🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling 📍 Key Support Levels: ❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support 🔻 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence 📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6650 All Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment. 🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long Term Reversal): 🟢 Entry : Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close). 🎯 Take Profit 1 : 6,150 (Previous high). 🎯 Take Profit 2 : 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension). 🎯 Take Profit 3 : 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publiation). 🔴 Stop Loss : Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation). ✅ Justification: 🔹The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however we believe based on our technical analysis both here, and our long term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control. 🔹 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary expectation once 6650 is reached): ❌ Invalidation Level : Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier). 🔻 Downside Short-Term Targets: 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support. 5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity. 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low. 🔻 Downside Long-Term Targets: 5,500 – 0.382 Fib 4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high 4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible. ✅ Justification: ❗ Please read - ❗ Higher Time Frame Long Term Analysis - ❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside. ⚡ Key Takeaways: 🔹 SPX500 is at a crossroads : Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13 . 🔹 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03 . 🔹 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13 ; otherwise, bears dominate. 📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025): Economic Releases: 📅 Mar 10 : U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness. 📅 Mar 12 : Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown. 📅 Mar 14 : FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections. 🌐 Geopolitical Developments: 📅 Mar 11 : Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity. 📅 Mar 13 : Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets. 📅 Ongoing : Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility. 📊 Market Sentiment: 📉 Equity Flows : Hedge funds remain underweight equities (BofA survey), suggesting short-term liquidity-driven rally. 📉 Options Market : SPX500 gamma gap at 6,800 killed by recent churn, hedging flows may cap tops. 🎯 Portfolio Management Strategy: 💰 Buy Entry : At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence). 🎯 Take Profit : 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6). ❌ Stop Loss : Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib). As price approaches 6,600, consider allocating capital to long-dated puts on the SPX500 to hedge against volatility spikes. A confirmed break below 5,755.70 would signal a shift toward bearish regimes, aligning with geopolitical tensions and potential Fed tightening.
BLACKBULL:US500.FLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
SPX edges towards the final buy zoneSPX has an anticipated market top of 6650 (view our long term analysis below) We can see that the ascending channel which the SPX is trading in has been respected since October 2022 (below idea) Now that the equilibrium level has been broken, we would expect to see a test of the lower channel support trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure, as well as a 38 Fib retracement on the most recent move. Multiple confluences strengthen the validity of a particular level and add weight to our decision. Therefore, we will wait for the SPX to come down and test this level at around 5756 which could take another month. Sitting on our hands, being patient, waiting only for the most likely trades is the logical way to play. Long term SPX:
BLACKBULL:US500.FLong
by Who-Is-Caerus