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Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?Introduction The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA? A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun. A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term During Trump’s first presidency: First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension. This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic. Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier) Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies. So why didn’t the market react earlier? 📉 Because this isn’t about tariffs. It’s about Wave 4. The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000. The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5 Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse. Potential triggers: Overleveraged markets Global debt bubbles Geopolitical instability Inflation shockwaves AI and tech overvaluation Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy? This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash? The answer may be both. ✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5 ⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall. Key Takeaways: Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008 Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
SP:SPX
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
1
Warning: what can save us from a collapse: must read.⚠️This analysis isn’t purely chart-based, but in this macro environment, understanding the bigger picture is essential for predicting market movements. Hopefully, TradingView will allow this idea so that everyone can read it. What Can Save Us? Before looking for a solution, we must first acknowledge the problem—and then determine if and when a resolution is coming. 1. Trump’s Tariffs & Policies: A Market Shock Trump’s economic strategy marks a radical departure from the policies of the past 30 years. However, previous administrations weakened U.S. global influence, shifting power in favor of China. Since Trump's motto is "Make America Great Again", serious changes are inevitable. Until investors fully grasp these policies, uncertainty will persist. Let’s break down the key areas of impact and Trump’s expected responses: 2.Monetary Policy & The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve (FED) and Jerome Powell are not aligned with the White House. Powell is sticking to his monetary policy approach, but Trump needs 0% interest rates to implement his vision. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is fueling volatility. 🔴 Trump's Response: Expect a bombshell move—Trump will fire Jerome Powell and replace him with a Fed chairman who supports rate cuts to 0%. This will cause short-term chaos but ultimately fuel a massive market rally as: ✔️ The housing market recovers ✔️ Liquidity surges ✔️ Stocks skyrocket 3.U.S. Dependence on China & Russia for Raw Materials The U.S. imports essential resources from China and Russia, making it vulnerable. The BRICS alliance is strengthening, further threatening U.S. dominance. 🔴 Trump's Response: Trump has openly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its rich natural resources. He will take it by military force if necessary, positioning the U.S. as a raw material powerhouse on par with Russia. 4.Lost Allies: Canada, Mexico & South America Canada is aligning with Europe Mexico & South America are leaning towards BRICS 🔴 Trump's Response: To counter this: Canada will be pressured into rejoining a U.S.-led trade bloc—or face potential annexation. South American economies will be crippled by tariffs, forcing them to reintegrate under U.S. influence. 5.Geopolitical Conflicts: Middle East & Ukraine Iran is aligned with Russia & China Ukraine relies on Europe (France, UK, EU), rather than the U.S. The U.S. is not benefiting from these wars 🔴 Trump's Response: If Zelensky continues to align with Europe, Trump may order a full-scale U.S. bombing of Ukraine, flatten Kyiv, eliminate Zelensky live on TikTok, and then split Ukraine with Russia. This move would: ✔️ Strengthen U.S.-Russia relations ✔️ Secure a deal on Greenland ✔️ Humble Europe 6.Conclusion: A Global Power Shift Expect a period of chaos and fear. However, what investors must understand is that Trump is 100% serious about these moves—and he will execute them regardless of global opinion. If Trump’s strategy works: ✅ The U.S. will regain dominance ✅ Markets will rally hard ✅ Confidence in the U.S. economy will be restored If Trump fails: 🚨 A prolonged economic downturn (15-20 years of stagflation) 🚨 U.S. & Europe suffer major losses 🚨 Best move? Relocate to Asia or the Middle East before the crash. So, even if Trump’s policies seem insane, the best-case scenario is that he succeeds. 💡 DYOR (Do Your Own Research) #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trump #MAGA #Geopolitics #StockMarket #SPX500 #Trading #Investing #Economy #FederalReserve #RateCuts
FX:SPX500
by CryptoNikkoid
7
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA? A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun. A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term During Trump’s first presidency: First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension. This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic. Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier) Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies. So why didn’t the market react earlier? 📉 Because this isn’t about Tariffs . It’s about Wave 4. The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000. The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5 Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse. Potential triggers: Overleveraged markets Global debt bubbles Geopolitical instability Inflation shockwaves AI and tech overvaluation Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy? This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash? The answer may be both. ✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5 ⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall. Key Takeaways: Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008 Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
SP:SPXLong
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
US500 Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Market PanicUS500 Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Market Panic On a larger scale, the US500 is positioned for a bearish trend, but recently, it has been hesitant to move downward, leading to a larger correction phase. Today, fears surrounding Trump’s tariff-related announcements have thrown the market into panic mode. Concerns that these tariffs could harm multiple sectors are causing a sell-off ahead of the news, as shown in the chart. Let’s see how the situation unfolds. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by KlejdiCuni
2
SPX: You Need To PrepareLast time I posted on SPX I said that I was sounding the Alarm I'm going to reiterate that you need to prepare No fear mongering, no fancy Elliott Wave Charts and no History Lessons in economics Lets just ask ourselves some really simple questions: If you lost your job today, how easy do you think it would be to find replacement employment that could maintain your current lifestyle? How many months of emergency savings do you have? What is your level of credit card/ debt in general and are you paying more than the minimum payment? Do you want to own a home? How hopeful are you about your chances to own in the near future? Are you saving for retirement? No really are you saving..be honest. If not, why? How happy, hopeful, worried, sad are you? Be honest And finally: Do you believe everything will be ok financially for you 10/20 years from now? Be honest Now ask yourself: What do I have to do so that I can move from believing/not believing to KNOWING that things will be ok?
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
SPX 1D 200 EMA Retest? As the 9&21W EMAs cross and a new local low printing after a SFP top, could the S&P500 be getting its first major correction since Jan 2022? From a TA standpoint this kind of setup looks to be high probability with good R:R for the bears. Targeting the 1W 200 EMA is the most logical area as it remains major support and whenever tested holds strong. From a bulls standpoint this is worrying but could be rectified with a reclaim of the 9&21 EMAs preventing a "death cross" from there acceptance above the high would be the next step to maintain the rally. Fundamentals play a major role and the geopolitical world shows no signs of slowing down, perhaps the tariffs angle is introducing uncertainty in American companies? Or the index is just exhausted from 2.5 years of climbing? Either way the chart is an interesting one to monitor for now.
SP:SPX
by ProR35
6
S&P 500 Outlook: Black Monday Risk Points to 4,600US500 Weekly Forecast – April Week 2 After Trump’s tariff news and the VIX spiking to 29, the S&P 500 (US500) showed signs of cracking. Last week’s candle broke the prior low at 5,092 and closed at 5,061, forming a clear bearish engulfing candle with strong downside momentum. This confirms a structural breakdown, and the first major monthly demand zone sits at 4,600 — a likely target if fear accelerates. Primary Scenario: • Price could open with a short-term bullish correction toward 5,400 (equilibrium zone of the last leg). • From there, we expect a sharp bearish continuation to 4,600 • Alternative: If Monday opens with panic (Black Monday scenario), price may dump straight into 4,600, creating a huge imbalance between 4,600–5,400. • That imbalance could act as a magnet for a later retrace — and then another sell-off from higher again. Bias: Bearish — watching for retest after potential panic move Key Levels: • Support: 4,600 (major monthly demand) • Resistance / Rebalance Zone: 5,400 (equilibrium) • Breakout Confirmation: Weekly close under 5,092 already done This setup reflects both technical structure and the real fear in the market. If Black Monday unfolds, we may get a deep move followed by one of the cleanest bearish retests of the year. — Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading Let me know your bias in the comments. #SPX #US500 #S&P500 #BlackMonday #MarketCrash #MacroView #SphinxWeekly #VIX #TrumpTariffs #Equities #LiquidityVoid
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Sphinx_Trading
S&P 500 resistance levels#SPX Upon observing the 6-month cash data of the S&P index, it becomes clear that this index has reached significant resistance levels. However, it is still too early to proclaim the beginning of a major correction in this index. That said, it can be anticipated that a potential price correction might extend to the range of 4800 to 4500. When comparing the wave count of this index with the Warren Buffett Indicator, both reveal a common message: the S&P is currently situated in sensitive zones. There are two critical price ranges for this index that could lead to significant price reversals: the first range is between 6085 and 6240, and the second range is between 7900 and 8000.
SP:SPXShort
by NEoWave-Chart
1987 vs 2025: Are We on the Edge of Another Black Monday? 🕳️📉 The chart comparison is chilling. On the left, the infamous 1987 crash—a sudden gap over the weekend followed by a brutal free fall. On the right? 2025. A similar gap, a similar setup... and the fear is creeping in. 🫣 🔍 Here’s what we’re seeing: The current price action on the S&P 500 Futures eerily mirrors that of 1987. A sharp drop after a failed breakout, followed by a massive gap down. The psychological setup is nearly identical: markets under pressure, global tension, and growing uncertainty. ⚠️ While history never repeats exactly, it often rhymes. Is this just a healthy correction—or the beginning of something bigger? 📊 Keep an eye on volume, volatility, and macro catalysts—if we see continued panic selling, this pattern might live up to its reputation. 🧠 What do you think—coincidence, or a warning we shouldn’t ignore? #BlackMonday #1987Crash #S&P500 #MarketCrash #SP500 #HistoryRepeats #TechnicalAnalysis
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by SmartSignalss
6
SPX: When things get scary, get ready!Wave C of 4 is ongoing and quite emotional. Wave B didn't quite get high enough, so chance of a larger C wave is high. This could last for a few days to a few months depending on how long this trade shenanigans continue. But, ultimately I don't think this will be a permanent situation and once things settle, markets will recover strongly. The underlying economic strength is still intact and there is still a lot of money in the system. If the Fed does start to cut the interest rates, it will initially boost the stock market but will weaken the economic conditions significantly. That might play out the final blow off top narrative perfectly. But for now, plan is to start nibbling on SPY when SPX gets inside the box. Some kind of butterfly strategy to limit the downside risk would be the play. Below 4100 will be the time to really panic!
SP:SPXShort
by mukit1
Retracement complete?This is absolutely beautiful. Rode some of the move down (should have stayed in longer!) but I think potentially the downward technical move may be approaching an end, at least near term. Long term, if the fundamental issue of tariffs and recession risk does not subside, we may see much lower levels given that we hit the upper end of a trendline that goes from 2000 and 2008 highs. I have more thoughts on this, but will revisit and do an update on the plot a month from now.
SP:SPX
by unknownreference
1
Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction)Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction) 💡 This trading idea is based on analyzing market reactions to news and tweets from influential figures — especially in the context of cryptocurrencies and stocks prone to speculative spikes. 📊 Core Strategy: The model tracks sudden price movements triggered by public statements (e.g., tweets from Elon Musk, breaking news, etc.). After the initial reaction, a retracement or continuation pattern often forms, which can be used to enter a trade. 🧠 How to use it: 1. Monitor the news flow or social media activity related to the asset. 2. Identify the initial impulse on the chart (high volume, sharp movement). 3. Wait for consolidation or a minor pullback. 4. Enter on breakout or bounce, using a tight stop-loss. 📌 Best suited for high-volatility assets with frequent hype triggers (e.g., DOGE, TSLA, BTC).
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by elukonina
Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025, YES) Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025 Analysis) - by Yuri Duursma Market Overview: Indices in Bear Market Territory After a strong start to the year, U.S. equities have stumbled extremely badly in recent weeks. The S&P 500 is currently down about 22% below its February 2025 all-time high (as the time of writing this, Monday 7 april 3AM EST time), the index is trading slightly above $4,800) , while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen roughly 26.5% from its peak – putting it deep into a bear market at $16,325 points. Even the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is in a correction, having slid around 19%+ from its ATH. This broad decline has been accelerated by escalating trade tensions – notably sweeping tariffs announced in early April – which sparked a vicious selloff and the worst week for stocks since 2020 In just the two days following the tariff news, the S&P 500 plunged over 10%, wiping out trillions in market value (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Such rapid, across-the-board declines have investors asking: Is the market finally near a bottom, or is there further pain ahead? This analysis will go over key technical indicators and sentiment gauges as of April 7, 2025 to assess whether a market bottom may be forming. Volatility and Options Sentiment (VIX, Put/Call Ratio & Implied Volatility) One classic hallmark of a market bottom is extreme volatility as investors capitulate. The Cboe VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” recently spiked to 60 on April 7, a level not seen since the early stages of the COVID crash in 2020 and the peak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. This move marks a significant shift in sentiment: while earlier in the week the VIX was in the low-30s, this surge indicates a full-blown volatility shock, consistent with historical capitulation events. Such a sharp spike strongly suggests the market is experiencing a climax in fear and forced liquidation. Over the past three decades, VIX readings above 50 have typically occurred only at major market bottoms. This extreme VIX level adds to the growing body of evidence that fear has reached saturation, and we are potentially witnessing the formation of a durable bottom. Another critical indicator is the put/call ratio, which reflects how aggressively traders are buying put options versus call options. Initially, the ratio hovered around 0.85, indicating moderate bearishness. However, as of April 6, 2025, the put/call volume ratio surged to 2.06 on SPY options specifically, based on live Barchart data. That means traders are buying more than twice as many puts as calls, a level not seen since the COVID crash. Further reinforcing the signal, SPY’s open interest put/call ratio stands at 1.68 or 1.64 depending on the scource, with put open interest at 10.99 million contracts compared to 6.72 million calls, according to OptionCharts.io. This skew indicates extreme hedging behavior, consistent with historical panic conditions. Even more striking is the implied volatility (IV) for SPY options: • IV (30d): 38.52% • IV Rank: 101.48% • IV Percentile: 100% • Historical Volatility: 27.98% This means the current implied volatility is higher than 100% of the past year’s readings, signaling maximum premium demand for protection. When IV reaches such extremes, it generally implies that traders are paying record-high prices to hedge downside risk—a common occurrence at or just before market bottoms. In summary, options sentiment now reflects not just fear, but full-blown capitulation: • VIX at 60 (multi-year high, extremely rare event) • Put/Call Volume Ratio at 1.68 • SPY IV at 38.52% with 101.5% IV rank • Put open interest heavily outweighs calls Taken together, these suggest an intense bearish consensus that, historically, often occurs just before a reversal. While no single metric predicts a bottom, the convergence of these extreme levels across volatility, positioning, and premium costs dramatically increases the probability that a capitulation low is forming or has just formed. Market Breadth and Technical Trends Broad market internals provide further clues about the selloff’s severity. Market breadth – the ratio of advancing to declining stocks – has deteriorated dramatically, reflecting how widespread the downturn is. In late March and early April, down-days were strikingly one-sided. For example, during the week of March 31 which, only 188 stocks on the NYSE rose while 2,662 fell, with a staggering 1,073 stocks hitting new 52-week lows (Markets Diary - WSJ). That means roughly 93% of all NYSE-listed issues declined over that period – an extremely weak breadth reading. Such lopsided selling (where virtually everything is “thrown out”) is often seen in the late stages of a bear move, as even high-quality names get caught in the capitulation. That said, some technicians look for 90% down days (when 90%+ of volume and issues are to the downside) as a classic bottom signal. So far we’ve seen readings in the 80-90% range (e.g. about 81% of S&P 500 stocks fell on March 31) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), but not quite a definitive 90% washout on a single day. The breadth data thus indicates heavy selling pressure, if not a textbook capitulatory flush just yet. But keep in mind this was on march 31st. The real pain came the week after that, with the s&p500 falling 10% in 2 days, a decline I have rarely seen in my 7 year trading career. Death Cross, might actually signal a bottom instead of a further decline In terms of trend indicators, the major indices have decisively broken below key moving averages. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all trading well under their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which confirms the intermediate-term downtrend. In fact, the decline has been steep enough that the market turned into a so-called “death cross” pattern – where the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day average. This crossover is a lagging technical signal, but it underscores that momentum has flipped negative. (Notably, many high-flying stocks from last year have already seen “death crosses” of their own.) While ominous, it’s worth remembering that such signals often follow the bulk of a decline – i.e. by the time a death cross occurs, a significant amount of downside has typically already happened. Often, a death cross appears right when stocks are about to bottom. From a contrarian perspective, technical weakness itself can set the stage for a bottom, as oversold conditions and deeply negative momentum sometimes precede eventual stabilization. Still, at this juncture the price trend remains firmly downward, and bulls would want to see indices regain their moving averages or at least flatten out before declaring a true bottom. Fear & Greed Index: Sentiment at Extreme Fear. REDICULOUS levels (4/100) Perhaps the clearest evidence of the market’s psychological state comes from CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, a composite of seven market indicators (market momentum, stock strength, breadth, options activity, junk bond demand, volatility, and safe-haven demand). As of early April 2025, this index is deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). In fact, the Fear & Greed reading has collapsed to levels last seen only during major crises – comparable to September 2008 (the Lehman collapse) and March 2020 (the COVID crash) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). Such an abysmal sentiment reading of 4/100 indicates that investor psychology is extraordinarily bearish right now. Anecdotally, panicked retail investors and cautious institutions alike are exceedingly risk-averse – selling stocks, hoarding cash or Treasury bonds, and otherwise assuming the worst. Also, gold hit a new all time high on April 3rd, completely shattering the $3000 mark. Another sign of extreme fear in the markets. From a contrarian standpoint, extreme fear is usually a super bullish signal. The famous adage by Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” resonates strongly at moments like this (Market and Investor Sentiment for April 2025 | Certuity). An Extreme Fear reading implies that a lot of bad news and pessimism is already “priced in” to the market. Historically, when the Fear & Greed Index is this low, stocks have often been near a bottom or at least poised for a relief rally (because most investors who were inclined to sell have already done so). It suggests the market may be approaching maximum pessimism, a precondition for a durable bottom. However, sentiment alone doesn’t call the bottom – it’s necessary but not sufficient. We need to also see actual buying interest returning (or catalysts improving) to confirm a turning point. As one market technician noted, “First you get the fear (capitulation), then you need the positive reaction to confirm a low has been made” (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). Right now we clearly have the fear, but we’re waiting to see if buyers step back in to establish a floor. Looking at the volume of the SPDR S&P500 retail ETF trust, we can see that the volume hit 217.97M. This is the highest volume we have seen since January 2022, which was the low before the index at least saw a significant bounce up. Macroeconomic Backdrop and Market Psychology Beyond technicals, the broader macroeconomic narrative and investor psychology cycle provide context for whether a bottom is forming. The current selloff has been catalyzed by a specific shock – a global trade war scenario – which raises uncertainty about economic growth and possibly higher inflation leading to raised interest rates. Newly announced U.S. tariffs and swift retaliation from China have led investors to price in a higher risk of recession (which J. Powell confirmed), shattering the complacency that prevailed in late 2024 (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Just a few months ago, many market participants were optimistic (perhaps overly so) about U.S. economic “exceptionalism” and continued earnings growth. Now, that optimism has flipped to extreme fear and disbelief. We see signs of capitulation on the institutional side: some hedge funds have reportedly liquidated their stock portfolios entirely to cut risk, citing a “chaotic” outlook and unclear future (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Margin calls are forcing leveraged investors to sell into the falling market, adding to the sense of forced liquidation. This kind of “get me out at any price” trading behavior is typical of late-stage bear market panic. However, a chain reaction of margin calls could lead to even bigger losses. (this might also be the reason traders both institutional and retail are panicking) On the psychological curve, markets appear to be transitioning from the “fear” to “capitulation” phase. Complacency (seen when investors kept buying dips earlier despite warning signs) has definitively evaporated. In its place, despair and panic are increasingly evident – but these are ironically the emotions that precede a market bottom in the classic Wall Street psychology cycle. The saying “darkest before dawn” applies: just when sellers are most exhausted and pessimistic, the groundwork for a bottom is laid. I think the article about margin calls for hedgefunds is a good indication of that. There are also early hints of a possible turn in narrative. For instance, the bond market was rallying tonight (this wasn’t the case onas money seeks safety, and traders are starting to anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts to cushion the economy (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Easier monetary policy or a breakthrough in trade negotiations could serve as a catalyst to stabilize stocks. Always keep the possibility of trade negotiations in mind with trump. You never know what he is up to. He could flip 180 degrees in a second, as we have seen his unpredictability in the first quarter of his presidency term. It’s also worth considering what the next phase after a bottom might look like: often, markets experience a “disbelief rally” – an initial rebound that many mistrust, thinking it’s just a short-lived bounce. If a bottom is indeed forming around now, any rebound in coming weeks might be met with skepticism (investors calling it a “dead cat bounce” or expecting another drop). Such skepticism is normal in early recovery stages; only after the market consistently stops making new lows do investors shift from disbelief to cautious optimism. For now, though, the predominant macro mood is still one of shell-shock. Economic indicators (e.g. manufacturing data and consumer confidence) have weakened, and corporate earnings outlooks are guarded, all of which justify a cautious stance. The collective psyche has moved toward “prepare for the worst”, which, paradoxically, is what creates the conditions for things to start getting better. Major indices have undergone a sharp correction, valuations have pulled back, and sentiment is extremely bearish – Fear & Greed is at extreme fear (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ), put/call ratios are elevated (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), and market breadth shows widespread capitulation-like selling (Markets Diary - WSJ). Importantly, these are the kinds of conditions that historically precede market bottoms, as selling pressure eventually exhausts itself and opportunistic buyers step in. There are early anecdotes of capitulation (e.g. hedge funds giving up on stocks) and volatility has surged, indicating peak fear may be near. However, it is equally important to note what’s absent or uncertain: No obvious positive catalyst has emerged yet to definitively turn the tide. The risk factors (e.g. trade war, recession odds) are still in play, meaning investors could remain skittish. In essence, the market might be forming a bottom, but it has not conclusively confirmed one. Bottoms are only ever obvious in hindsight. In real time, one can merely weigh the evidence. As of April 7, 2025, the evidence leans toward an aging selloff with growing contrarian appeal – the crowd is very fearful, and value is returning – but patience and caution are warranted. Traders will be watching for telltale confirmation signals of a bottom: stabilization of prices above recent lows, a drop in volatility, improvement in breadth (more stocks advancing), and the market’s ability to rally on bad news (indicating selling has dried up). For investors, the current environment calls for a balanced, objective approach. The conditions are certainly closer to a bottom than they were a few months ago during the greed/complacency phase, but that doesn’t guarantee the exact bottom is in. It helps to remember that “being early” to a bottom is far better than being late to a panic. I think it is time to DCA aggressively into the markets as off 7 april 2025. With fear running high, long-term investors may find opportunities to start nibbling selectively at high-quality stocks trading at a discount, while keeping some powder dry in case of further downside (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). In summary, the U.S. stock market is showing classic signs of bottoming – extreme fear, heavy hedging, and broad weakness – yet until we see the market’s reaction stabilize (and some resolution to macro risks), it’s prudent to remain vigilant. A bottom could be forming, but confirmation will come only with time and subsequent market action, not simply the calendar. Investors should stay disciplined, focus on quality, and be ready for continued volatility as the market seeks out its true bottom. Sources: Key market statistics and sentiment indicators were referenced from recent analyses and reports, including Reuters, MarketWatch, and investor sentiment surveys (e.g. CNN Fear & Greed Index) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Markets Diary - WSJ). These sources provide context on the April 2025 market conditions, highlighting the elevated volatility (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), bearish options positioning (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), weak market breadth (Markets Diary - WSJ), and extreme fear sentiment (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) that characterize the potential bottoming process. Technical analysis TA: As for the technical analysis, my self written indicator (which is also based on various community open scource trading view scripts) Shows that we are back in the equilibrium zone. Furthermore, the stochastic RSI has hit 0 on the weekly, and the regular RSI is sitting at 26.6, the lowest level since the 2020 covid crash. Furthermore the indicator printed an 8/9 on the weeikly chart, with 9 giving a checkmark. Usually an 8 or a 9 signals a bottom. The daily chart is sitting at a 7/9, which makes me think that we are at a bottom, if not EXTREMELY close to one. Right now, we have also hit a key support area, the 2022 all time high before the markets crashed like i predicted (see previous articles) So TLDR: What is the plan? Of course, timing the market is risky, however I think this is a good time to Dollar Cost Average very aggressively into the markets. Personally I did my first buy ins on Friday April 4th, and will continue to do so this week. EVEN if we end up crashing further, we will always experience a dead cat bounce. Stocks don’t go down in a straight line. As my stocks are in the profit, i will put my stop losses into the profit as well. If the stop losses get hit into the profit, we wait what the market does. Maybe we buy again, a few weeks later maybe we will stay out and hold cash. Only time will tell what the best plan is when that happens. There is no point in deciding that right now. TDLR: Bottom is most likely in or VERY, Very close. BUY, but keep some cash at hand for if the market declines even further (or to keep healthy margin requirements if we end up buying with leverage, which is a bit riskier. Don’t time the market, but act appropriately. Opportunities like this create wealth for the brave in extreme fear situations. TIME TO BUY, DCA HARD INTO THE MARKETS, but keep a little bit of cash for if we do end up going lower!!!!!!!!!!!! Personally, I think blue chip stocks are a steal right now. And the buying doesn't stop there as mid caps also provide amazing opportunities right now.
SP:SPXLong
by Y_Duursma
S&P500 - What's next - Tariffs , Interest Rate decision? As of March 18, 2025, the S&P 500 index has experienced significant volatility, influenced by President Donald Trump's recent tariff policies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Scenario 1: Upside Potential Towards All-Time Highs The S&P 500 has recently shown signs of recovery, with a 0.6% rise on Monday following a 2.1% surge on Friday, marking its best performance since Trump's re-election. This rebound suggests that, despite earlier corrections, investor sentiment may be improving. ​ If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain current interest rates in its upcoming meeting, it could signal confidence in the economy's resilience amid trade tensions. Such a stance might encourage further investment in equities, potentially propelling the S&P 500 towards its all-time highs. Additionally, some analysts believe that the market's recent correction is a healthy adjustment, and with improved earnings revisions and seasonal strength, a continued rally is plausible. ​ Scenario 2: Downside Risk Towards the 5,000 Support Level Conversely, the aggressive tariff policies introduced by President Trump have raised concerns about inflationary pressures and potential slowdowns in economic growth. UBS analysts project that if the U.S. implements a 60% import tax on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on other imports, the S&P 500 could end next year at 5,200, an 11% decline from its recent record close. ​ Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimates that the current tariff plans could lead to a 5% drop in the S&P 500 in the coming months, as increased costs may squeeze corporate profit margins. If the Federal Reserve responds to these inflationary concerns by maintaining or even raising interest rates, borrowing costs could rise, potentially dampening consumer spending and business investment. Such developments might exert downward pressure on the S&P 500, bringing it closer to the 5,000 support level.​ Summa Money Our conclusion. The S&P 500's trajectory in the near term is intricately linked to the outcomes of trade policies and monetary decisions. While the market has demonstrated resilience, the dual forces of tariff-induced economic adjustments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance will play pivotal roles in determining whether the index ascends towards new highs or retreats to key support levels. In these volatile times, it is definitely a tough time to predict how the market would move , so this is why we are looking into the different options as how things would pan-out in the upcoming months in regards to the S&P500! Positive outcome - Enter here with a target just below the ATH at 6,000 points, with your stop loss being above the bottom at 5,125 points Negative outcome - Entere here with a target around the bottom at 5,000 , with a stop loss around the resistnace 5,750 I am interested to hear out your thoughs on this analysis and overall the idea behind whats happening with the U.S. economy and what would be the reaction for the S&P500!
SP:SPX
by DG55Capital
S&P 500 to 7000+ Full analysis of current levelsI don't make a lot of videos but I thought this idea warranted one so I could share the detail. First of all, I'd like your feedback - what else do you see? what did I miss? Let me know. Key points from this video: We are coming up on the COVID lower trendline We are currently sitting on a key level that has a confluence of 50% retrace on downward channel The 61.8 retrace is in confluence with a number of key items: The COVID Trendline, Volume Profile, 2022 high, and current channel Momentum is also supportive of a pivot So, what do you think?
SP:SPXLong
by novamatic
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