XTIUSD (WTI Crude Oil) – Market Analysis (23rd March 2025)XTIUSD (WTI Crude Oil)
Timeframe: 4H
1. Mak Method
Price recently broke above the descending trendline, indicating a potential bullish shift.
Key 369 Level: Price is hovering around $68.61, aligning with my levels.
If price maintains above $67.50, we could see continued bullish movement.
2. Fibonacci, Gann Levels & Elliott Wave
Fibonacci Retracement:
61.8% level at $72.50, making it a critical upside target.
Gann Levels:
Major support at $66.00, which aligns with institutional buying zones.
Elliott Wave Count:
Potential Wave 3 underway, with a break above $70 confirming bullish momentum.
3. Key Technical Levels (Support & Resistance)
Support Levels:
$67.50 - $66.00 → Strong demand zone, potential bullish retest.
$61.50 - $60.00 → Major institutional support (if breakdown occurs).
Resistance Levels:
$69.50 - $70.00 → Short-term resistance, possible liquidity grab.
$72.50 - $75.00 → Next bullish target, aligning with Fibonacci & order blocks.
4. Probable Scenarios with Probability %
Scenario Probability
Bullish Breakout: Retest of $67.50, then continuation to $70-$72.50. 65%
Fake Breakout & Rejection: Price rejects $69.50 and retraces to $66.00. 25%
Bearish Breakdown: Failure to hold $66.00, leading to a drop to $61.50-$60.00. 10%
5. Conclusion & Trading Strategy
Bias: Bullish above $67.50, bearish below $66.00.
Entry Areas:
Long Entry → Retest of $67.50 with confirmation.
Short Entry → Breakdown below $66.00, targeting $61.50.
Stop Loss:
Long trades → Below $65.80.
Short trades → Above $70.50.
Final Thoughts:
Watch for false breakouts at $69.50 before confirming bullish moves.
If price consolidates above $68.50 - $69.00, we could see a rally toward $72.50 - $75.00.
Volume Confirmation: Institutional buying at $67.50 could trigger a strong bullish move.
SPOTCRUDE trade ideas
USOIL Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 71.913.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 73.911.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Oil – Shorts Getting Squeezed But How Far Can it Run?After trading between $65-70 for much of March as fears of a slowdown in the global economy would lead to reduced demand, Oil prices popped 3% yesterday to close at 71.50 and have initially nudged higher again today.
The catalyst for the recent move that led to this spike, unsurprisingly, were comments from President Trump. Yes, he seems to be moving all markets right now!
His weekend comments which suggested he was getting fed up with Putin dragging his feet on a Ukraine ceasefire, adding the US may work to restrict Russian crude shipments and consider secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian Oil, were enough for traders to reduce weak short positions, as this could impact Oil supplies, if it were to become a reality.
Add to that, yesterday’s positive news from China, the world’s biggest Oil importer, that showed manufacturing activity in the country expanded at a faster pace for the year to March, and you can see why prices have bounced in the short term.
However, can this move continue?
It could all depend on how aggressive President Trump and his team are tomorrow when they unveil the next wave of reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, in what President Trump has labelled ‘Liberation Day’.
Current expectations are for these new tariffs to impact all countries, but the size of the penalties is unclear, as are the size of retaliatory measures from China, Canada, EU and the rest of the world for that measure.
The worst ‘Liberation Day’ outcome could see Oil traders focus on a global recession and a potential drop in Oil demand, which could see prices fall from current levels, while anything else could see Oil prices continue to fluctuate depending on what it means for global trade and for the economies of specific Oil importing nations like China.
Technical Picture:
It was an extended phase of weakness in Oil prices from the January 15th, 2025, high at 81.01 into the March 5th, 2025, low at 65.25, a decline of 19.45%, which took prices to levels last seen in May 2023.
Subsequently, while a price recovery has materialised, it is only until recently that a more sustained period of strength looks to be developing, and only yesterday the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January/March weakness, which stood at 71.29, was challenged.
In fact, with signs emerging that traders with short positions are reverting to the sidelines and ‘covering positions’ ahead whatever tomorrow’s tariff announcements bring, this 71.29 resistance level gave way on a closing basis.
A close above a Fibonacci retracement resistance is not a guarantee of a more prolonged phase of recovery in price, especially when we have such significant news about to hit traders’ screens, but it does suggest scope to higher levels in price are still possible.
Next Resistance:
A break above a 38.2% retracement resistance level can open potential for a more extended phase of price strength and traders may now be focusing on 73.15/16 as the next resistance within current strength. This represents the February 20th 2025 high in price, from which fresh selling was recently seen to post new price lows and the higher 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Next Support:
Of course, it is equally possible any reaction to the up-and-coming tariff announcement could be negative for Oil, in which case it is important to consider what are the levels that if broken to the downside within any extended phase of weakness, might again suggest increasing downside pressure in the price of Oil.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest March strength stands at 70.36, with possibilities that if any fresh weakness sees this level give way on a closing basis, might indicate it is the oil bears are gaining a foothold once more, to expose a deeper price decline and retracement of March strength.
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Brent Crude Oil Price Rises Above $71Brent Crude Oil Price Rises Above $71
Brent crude oil is trading above $71 per barrel today, marking its highest level since late February. As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price surged by approximately 2.6% on the last day of March.
Why Has Oil Risen?
Bullish sentiment in the market is driven by the US President’s stance on Russia and Iran. According to Trading Economics:
➝ Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of 25–50% on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. This could put pressure on key importers such as India and China.
➝ He has also threatened Iran with further tariffs and airstrikes until the country agrees to abandon its nuclear weapons programme.
The rise in Brent crude prices appears to reflect traders’ concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply chains.
Technical Analysis of XBR/USD
In early March, oil formed a bullish Double Bottom pattern (see the lows on 5 and 11 March), followed by an upward trend within a rising channel (marked in blue).
Notably, the XBR/USD chart shows that the price:
➝ Has moved into the upper half of the channel.
➝ Broke through key resistance at around $70.25, a level that previously acted as support multiple times (as indicated by the arrows).
As a result, the median of the channel, reinforced by the $70.25 level, may now serve as support, keeping Brent crude within the blue channel. However, market direction will likely depend on the news cycle, particularly sharp statements from the White House.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 71.06 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 69.80 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 72.94 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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USOil Key Resistance Hit: Is WTI Crude Due for a Correction?WTI crude oil appears overextended after a strong bullish rally, trading into a key resistance level amid heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility. The current price action suggests a potential retracement, with equilibrium around the 50% Fibonacci level being a likely target for correction 📉. Given the reactionary nature of the market, traders should remain cautious as political developments could drive further instability ⚠️. While the technical setup supports a pullback, external factors may disrupt this scenario, so risk management is essential. 📊
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
USOIL My Opinion! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 68.97
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 69.31
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long USOIL: Targeting $70.20 Amid Bullish MomentumThe price of USOIL has recently bounced off a key support level, confirming a successful retest of the previous demand zone. The support level aligns with a significant price reaction area, reinforcing its strength. Additionally, the MACD indicator is showing a bullish crossover, signaling a potential upward momentum shift. Volume analysis indicates increased buying activity near the support zone, suggesting strong participation from buyers. Given these technical factors, a long position with a target of 70.2 is supported by confluence from multiple indicators and price action confirmation.
What to do if crude oil rises? The latest layout strategyCrude oil futures showed volatility during the day on Monday. Prices rose sharply in early European trading, breaking through the 70.00 integer mark and then falling back, but still fluctuating at a relatively high level. Oil prices rose slightly after countries importing Russian oil imposed tariffs of 25% to 50%. Brent crude oil futures climbed and WTI also rose. However, gains were limited as traders questioned the seriousness of the proposal. ING Group pointed out that the market was "fatigued" by Washington's tariff rhetoric, indicating that the crude oil market was unlikely to react strongly without concrete actions.
Crude oil plan: Crude oil is recommended to retreat to 70.0-69.5, with a target of 71.0-72.0 and a stop loss of 0.5 US dollars.
If oil prices break below $69.0/barrel, this will stop the expected bullish trend and push oil prices to regain the main trend of volatility.
It is expected that today's oil prices will trade between the support level of $69.0/barrel and the resistance level of $72.0/barrel.
WTI CRUDE OIL: 1M MA100 providing huge buying pressure to $77.50WTI Crude Oil has reclaimed its bullish technical outlook on 1D (RSI = 62.688, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 49.608) as is about to end the month on a strong green 1M candle and a huge 1M RSI bullish divergence. The most important development here is that the current 1M candle (March) marginally hit the 1M MA100 and immediately rebounded. This trendline has been the market's major long term support since April 2021, so essentially for the last 4 years. We believe that this is enough to cause a medium term rebound to the LH Zone and possibly even just outside of it to test the 1M MA50. For now however, our target is contained inside this zone (TP = 77.50).
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CRUDE OIL Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A bullish breakout of the key
Level of 70.30$ and the
Breakout is confirmed so we
Are bullish biased and we
Will be expecting a further
Move up after a potential
Local pullback
Buy!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USOIL: Next Week's Blueprint for Profit Amid VolatilityDuring the US trading session on Friday, March 28th, international oil prices fluctuated slightly and declined. However, both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil remained firmly near their one - month highs and were projected to register "three consecutive weekly gains" on the weekly chart. The ongoing tug - of - war between the supply tightness instigated by geopolitical unrest and the latent concerns regarding an economic downturn has placed oil prices in a volatile state of being "caught between a rock and a hard place".
From the perspective of the USOIL daily chart, following the medium - term trend's breach of the lower edge of the range, it has predominantly fluctuated around lower levels. The oil price has experienced consecutive short - term increases, breaking through the suppression of the moving average system, and the medium - term objective trend has entered a transition phase. Nevertheless, in terms of kinetic energy, neither the bulls nor the bears have demonstrated a clear - cut inclination to overpower the other. It is anticipated that the medium - term trend will persist in its volatile rhythm for a while, awaiting the establishment of a distinct trend direction.
The short - term (1H) trend of USOIL has not continuously set new highs and has exhibited a pattern of high - level consolidation. The short - term objective trend remains upward. In the early trading session, the oil price underwent a narrow adjustment at a high level, presenting an overall secondary rhythm with a sound internal rhythm. The fundamental objective trend during the week has been upward in sync, and it is highly likely that the short - term trend of USOIL will continue its upward trajectory next week.
USOIL
buy@68-68.5
tp:69.5-70
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USOIL: GO short positions during the oscillation at a high levelThe short-term trend of crude oil has been oscillating and declining at a high level. The oil price has broken below the moving average system, and the objective short-term trend has entered a transition period. The bearish momentum is gradually intensifying, and the oil price dropped below 70 in the early trading session. In the 4-hour chart, the objective short-term trend direction within this week still remains upward. The trading strategy for crude oil still mainly focuses on the oscillation and decline at a high level.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@69.8-70
TP:69-68.5
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#XTIUSD BULLISH AFTER CONFIRMING CHOCHXTI created a CHOCH on the 4h chart and is looking bullish with 2 targets in sight.
Once we complete a pullback to the CHOCH area, XTI will be looking at TARGET 1 in the 70.40 zone and once broken, the next target is at 73.00
Always wait for confirmation before placing your trade and use appropriate risk management.
Bearish drop?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 69.68
1st Support: 66.60
1st Resistance: 71.29
S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,405.74
1st Support: 5,176.07
1st Resistance: 5,769.85
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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Tariffs can have a significant impact on USOILThe expiration of the extended US import tariffs on Canada and Mexico next Wednesday may impact USOIL:
Supply : Tariffs could disrupt US-Canada crude oil trade, cutting US supply and raising prices. Trade pattern changes may also affect global supply and USOIL prices.
Demand : Tariffs may slow economic growth, reducing crude oil demand and exerting downward price pressure. Uncertainty dampens consumer and business confidence, further suppressing demand.
Market Sentiment & Finance : Policy changes heighten uncertainty, making investors cautious and increasing USOIL price volatility. Capital may flow out, pressuring prices, but portfolio adjustments for hedging could support them.
Also, OPEC and non-OPEC plans to end production cuts in April may boost global supply and lower USOIL prices.