The Euphoria DAX40 Continues or is a Change Coming?This day, the DAX40 has started higher , recovering the ground lost in recent days. Expectations for the euro zone are upbeat, especially for inflation, trade balances and retail sales data, with expectations for an improvement in German earnings standing out. Sales in the Italian market will be key for the Milan index, looking to close the week in positive, if the forecast is met.
Unlike the beginning of this week, marked by pullbacks due to massive selling and position closures, inflation data has prompted the European Central Bank last week to continue with its cutting projection, seeking confirmation in the current data. In this way, it is seeking to cut the phenomenon of the economic cycle movement in which we find ourselves.
In the United States, the Fed's decisions have influenced the commodities market and the EURUSD cross, doing more or less as expected this week.
Regarding the DAX40, looking at its price construction, the index price has been in a sideways range since the end of February, reaching highs yesterday at midday. Today, it has risen by 0.68%, suggesting a possible bullish continuation if the data is favorable and similar to expectations trying to find the 18,500 points. Otherwise, a rebound towards 17,612 points could be generated, remaining in the current range.
The RSI shows an overbought level of 66.62%, with overall market sentiment predominantly bull driven. The current price bell shows a quadruple bell with price dominance in the area of 17,706 points. These indicators suggest a possible reversal to the downside which could signal a continuation of the price zone where it has held since late March. It is worth keeping an eye on the day's news for further developments.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
GDAXI trade ideas
Trade Plan (Pending): I am selling DAX 40 (GER40) at 18,050 Bespoke support is located at 17,683 and 17,085. Using projection analysis for an Elliott Wave count (5 waves) offers a resistance level of 18,053.
The one-hour time frame highlights an ending wedge pattern. The trend of higher highs is located close to the projection level. On a break of the trend of higher lows at 17,817, the measured move target is 17,660. Selling into rallies offers a good risk-reward ratio.
Selling at 18,050
SL: 18,150
TP1: 17,085
Risk/Reward Ratio of 9.65R
#tradeplan #DAX
Rising to Fibonacci level?DAX is on the pivot point at 17909.64, price could bounce off the pivot and rise to resistance that aligns with 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 17909.64
Support: 17653.29
Resistance: 18043.82
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DAX Short Term Should Stay SupportedShort Term Elliott Wave view in DAX suggests cycle from 1.17.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 1.17.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 17049.52 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 16830.28 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. The Index then rallies higher within in wave ((iii)) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 17198.45 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 17019.15. The Index extended higher in wave (iii) towards 17816.52 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 17619.4. The Index extended higher again in wave (v) towards 17879.11 which completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree.
Pullback in wave ((iv)) subdivided into a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 17795.13 and wave (b) ended at 17860.51. Wave (c) lower ended at 17662.55 which completed wave ((iv)). The Index has extended higher in wave ((v)) with internal subdivision as 5 waves impulse. Up from wave ((iv)), wave i ended at 17849.8 and wave ii ended at 17746.89. Index extended higher in wave iii towards 18001.42 and wave iv ended at 17939.50. Final leg wave v ended at 18039.05 which completed wave (i). Expect wave (ii) pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside, as far as pivot at 16830.28 low stays intact.
Short after support breakThe Dax40 broke a lower time frame structure, 17930 was a support which was respected at lot, but a quick scapl can be spotted. The trend is although still bullish but the short term bearish setup could be placed upon retest of the structure.
Ger40 sell Cracks appearing in the run up now. Decent supply coming into the markets. If that shuts off abruptly and gets bought into another short squeeze then I’m wrong. If supply flushes down then could be a big one. Aim for breakeven at signs of failure to push down as it should go quick. This is a low probability, high reward trade.
Dax nearing the end of 5 waves up for wave 3 topEurope as is the whole world is now setup for a correction of greater than 5% from 3/11 to April 2 nd 4/2 2024 . I am short and long in the money and at the money puts .
Long DaxPossible long trade on Dax low volume recovery.
30min uptrend confirmed by 200EMA
Volume profile POC closing above previous day and leaving low volume cave below.
Market profile showing excess at previous days low and poor high.
Potential for price to fill low volume cave with 2 x previous day high and fib retracement.
Stop loss below cave, target at round number.
Wait for clear trigger to present, either break of counter trend or strong 5min resistance
GER40 LONG BUYHello everyone, for the ger40 I'm aiming for a bullish continuation after the rebound on the demand zone and the break of the structure.
Dax Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
GER30 SetupGER30 is bullish on 1 Hour time-frame. I have identified 2 areas of interest tongo LONG. Look for the LTF confirmation before taking any kind of entry. Thank You.
DAX H4 | Falling to pullback supportThe DAX (GER40) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 17,658.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 17,451.85
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that sits under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 18,255.53
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DAX Correction very likely. Target 17100.DAX (DE40) is extending a very strong Bullish Leg, which started after the previous short-term correction ended on January 17 2024 with a contact on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is part of an overall Bullish Wave that emerged on the latest Higher Low (October 27 2023) of the 1.5 year Channel Up.
However as the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross (which has been a sell signal within this pattern) while the price is already on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension level (which is where it was rejected on the previous Bullish Leg on March 07 2023), we are turning bearish on DAX on the medium-term, targeting the previous Resistance at 17100.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
GER40 Failure Test sellDecent failure test on GER40 Index. Have to be very careful trading against this momentum.
Weekly Technical Analysis 11/03/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Analysis
Germany 40 has maintained its bullish trend and the impulsive phase continues with a slight increase in price to 17,746, now above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 17,530. The index finds new support at 17,012 and faces resistance near 18,047. The RSI has decreased to 67, indicating strong positive momentum but is no longer in the overbought territory.
UK 100 is still consolidating in a neutral trend, with its price now at 7,631.5, below the slightly higher 20-period VWAP of 7,672.4. The index's support level has adjusted to 7,605.3, with resistance at 7,739.5. The RSI has decreased to 47, suggesting a shift towards a more bearish momentum than last week.
Wall Street has transitioned from the impulsive phase of a bullish trend to a corrective phase, with its price decreasing to 38,699, below the upwards-sloping 20-period VWAP of 38,818. The support for this index has adjusted to 38,412, with resistance now at 39,224. The RSI has decreased significantly to 49, indicating a reduction to neutral momentum.
Brent Crude is consolidating in a neutral trend with a slight bullish bias, with its price decreasing to 81.62, below the 20-period VWAP of 82.23. The support level has adjusted to 80.78, with resistance remaining very close at 83.67. The RSI is at 48, indicating a shift to neutral momentum.
Gold is rip-roaring into a new bullish trend but with a significant increase in price to 2,178, well above the 20-period VWAP of 2,075. The support level has advanced significantly to 1,950, with resistance now at 2,200. The RSI at 85 indicates a very strong positive momentum, emphasising an increased bullish sentiment but also in overbought territory.
EUR/USD has shifted from the corrective phase of a bearish trend to the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with the price increasing to 1.0943, above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.0849. The support has now adjusted to 1.0741, with resistance at 1.0956. The RSI at 67 indicates a strong shift to positive momentum.
GBP/USD has transitioned to a bullish trend in the impulsive phase, with its price increasing to 1.2849, well above the now upwards-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.2692. Support has risen to 1.2527, with resistance slightly adjusting to 1.2851. The RSI at 73 suggests a strong positive momentum, marking a significant shift towards bullish sentiment from the previous neutral stance.
USD/JPY has abruptly begun what appears to be a new bearish trend in the impulsive phase, with its price decreasing to 146.95, below the 20-period VWAP of 149.95. The support level has sharply adjusted to 146.96, with resistance now at 152.28. The RSI is at 30, indicating a significant move to bearish momentum.
DAX to find support at market price?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17904.
We look to buy dips.
50 4hour EMA is at 17685.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market.
We look to Buy at 17690 (stop at 17590)
Our profit targets will be 17940 and 17990
Resistance: 17760 / 17907 / 18000
Support: 17710 / 17618 / 17500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Falling to support level?DAX is approaching the resistance that aligns with 61.8% retracement and could potentially fall to support level.
Alternatively, if the price breaks above the pivot, it could continue to rise to the next resistance level
Pivot: 17858.74
Support: 17024.19
Resistance: 18314.71
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BULLISH GER30I'm anticipating a retest on the Germ30 to fill the order block then start trailing back up.
#202411 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daGood day and i hope you are well.
There is a theory of markets, that the ‘Generals’ usually lead the way for the next impulse. I have no idea about the proven probabilities of that but let’s just talk about some big stocks here, which supports my bigger bearish market thesis, that this still might be the blow-off top at the end of a very long ongoing bull trend which is exhausted and will turn around soon.
Apple: Just broke below or is at the monthly 20ema; -15% from the ATH; 2 consecutive red months and the third is forming; clear sell signal below 160
Google: below the weekly 20ema; -15% from ATH; increasing volume on bear days; will become clear sell below 120
Nvidia: The peak bubble of bubbles -11.18% on Friday with very high volume; bulls will take profits for their lifes below 800
JP Morgan: holding strong at the highs - might be the last to turn around - just printed 2 bad looking bars for the bulls
dax
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000.
Not much new happening compared to last week. Bulls broke above a bull channel, got a retest of that breakout trend line and made a new ath.
bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again.
bear case: Everything in here is very low probability. Bulls are in full control and odds favor the bulls then. Best bears can get here is probably a trading range 17600 - 18000. Bears have not done anything to close this enormous bull gap 17150 - 17670 on the daily chart.
outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday.
short term: up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged
