US 100 Index – All Eyes On President Trump!Risk sentiment crumbled on Friday, taking the US 100 down 3% and within touching distance of its 2025 lows at 19113 from March 11th. More importantly it brought the index to a potentially crucial first retracement support level at 19065. Further details on this in the technical section below.
The weekend brought little in the way of positivity, with protests against Tesla and Elon Musk across Europe, and comments from President Trump stating he ‘couldn’t care less’ if automakers raise prices in response to his 25% tariff on imported vehicles, as US consumers will buy American cars.
Regarding ‘Liberation Day’, as he calls it, which is Wednesday April 2nd, where he has previously promised to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners, he stated late on Sunday that ‘You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens’, which indicates he is in no hurry to back down. Although, as we all know, President Trump is unpredictable, so anything is still possible!
So, at the start of a potentially pivotal week for the direction of the US 100 index moving forward into the start of Q2 its probably no surprise to see it probing lower levels again. The focus for traders is likely to remain on the scope and size of the tariffs President Trump imposes, whether there are any reprieves or reductions provided to certain countries, and the extent of retaliatory action taken by trading partners such as the EU.
Concerns over the strength of the US economy also remain a hot topic for traders and in that regard, there is some tier 1 data to consider across the week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 1500 BST), ISM Services PMI (Thursday 1500 GMT) and then the Non-farm Payrolls (Friday 1330 BST) update all have the potential to impact the direction of the US 100 index.
Oh, and did I forget to mention that the week finishes with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at 1625 BST on Friday? It really is a week that has it all!
Technical Update: 38% Retracement Support to Hold Again or Give Way?
Perhaps with the benefit of hindsight, it wasn’t too much of a surprise that having seen the US 100 index trade to the March 11th low of 19113, a reactive recovery materialised.
As the chart above shows, the decline was a 14% move within a 4-week period between February 18th to March 11th, although perhaps more importantly, it approached support at 19065, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October 2023 to February 2025 strength.
Traders will often focus on retracement levels within sharp phases of price activity, as potential support or resistance, from which reactive moves can be seen. It might be argued this was the case within the US 100 index.
Interestingly, as impressive as the recovery from the March 11th low appeared, this was held and reversed by resistance at 20307, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of February to March weakness. See chart above.
What Now?
It would seem within the coming week, the first potential support to monitor on a closing basis is still the 19065 retracement, with 20307 continuing to represent possible resistance.
While closing breaks of either of these levels won’t guarantee a significant price movement with much still dependent on the outcome of events across the week, a closing breakout may lead to a more extended price move in the direction of any break.
Support: Closing breaks under the 19065 support might suggest resumption of recent declines, with risks possibly then emerging to test 18111, which is the deeper 50% retracement, may be even further if this is in turn breached.
Resistance: If 20307 is broken to the upside on a closing basis, it may lead to a further retracement of the February to March weakness, with the 50% level standing at 20679, or even 21050, which is the higher 62% retracement.
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