The Bullish AlternativeA channel for SPX is near 4800. if it holds this week, there is a very good possibility that a run to all time highs later in the year can happen. I explain in the video.
SPX500 trade ideas
This is a test on SPX500Short thesis for SPX500
🚨 Market Alert: SPX500 Approaching Critical Zone
(April 6, 2025)
Volatility (VIX) just surged to 45—markets are feeling significant fear. This creates high-quality swing-trading opportunities.
🎯 Why this area is important:
Key Support Flip: Previous strong weekly resistance could now act as critical support.
High-Timeframe Imbalance: SPX500 is retesting the exact demand zone that launched the powerful rally from October 2022 → February 2024.
50% Fibonacci Level: Perfect retracement to the midpoint of the entire 2022–2024 bullish leg.
⚠️ What I'm watching for (No-Chase Method):
✅ Lower-timeframe liquidity sweeps + Break of Structure (BOS) as confirmation.
✅ Volume spikes indicating smart-money engagement.
✅ Signs of VIX easing (below ~35), reinforcing bullish reversal thesis.
SPX Important update: Crash of 200pnts on MondayThree days back I had warned of a crash which did materialise beyond my expectation.
Today again based on the same VP analysis and additionally major trendline break principal I am predicting a 200pnts crash on Monday as we have enter a major low volume region. I hope I am wrong for the sake of all those who are still invested
The market achieved the first target of green trendline break and is now touching the red trendline. Since the price is close to the LVN's another crash is extremely high probability. Had it been near a HVN, I would expect a bounce. The next target coincides with the 2023 Oct bottom. But 4800 (peak of 2022) could offer some support and then 4120
Major trendline break principle is: when a major trendline is broken the price will mirror the rise and fall an equal distance from the breakpoint as from the high to the breakpoint. Check my related post where I show many such cases
S&P 500 Records Largest Weekly Decline Since 2020The S&P 500 Index has suffered its steepest two-day drop since the pandemic crash in March 2020. On April 4th, 2025, the benchmark index closed at 5,074.08, down 322.44 points (5.97%). This marks a loss of $5.4 trillion in market value across just two sessions.
The sell-off followed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He warned that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs could lead to persistently higher inflation. All 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed in the red. Only 14 stocks remained positive as Nvidia and Apple fell more than 7%, while Tesla dropped 10%.
The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 6.1%, confirming a bear market after losing over 20% from its February peak. The rapid decline mirrors the speed seen during the 2020 COVID crash and the 2000 dot-com bust.
President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports on Wednesday. These include a 10% general tariff and higher rates on dozens of countries. China responded by imposing a 34% levy on American goods. The tit-for-tat measures triggered fears of a full-scale global trade war.
Global markets reacted sharply. Investors pulled out of stocks and moved into safer assets like government bonds. The two-day loss of $5 trillion on the S&P 500 set a new record, surpassing the $3.3 trillion loss during March 2020.
Rick Meckler, of Cherry Lane Investments, said the escalation is now deeper than many investors expected. The initial belief that tariffs were a negotiation tactic has now given way to serious market concerns.
Technical Analysis: Price Approaching Key Support Zones. Will They Hold?
The S&P 500 has shown a bearish trend since early 2025. Several weekly candles have closed bearish, confirming a strong downtrend. Currently, the index is trading lower toward a key ascending trendline near $4,930.
The $4,930 support level may offer short-term support. A bounce from here could see a brief recovery. However, the sentiment remains bearish without strong economic data or policy changes.
Further Downside Risk If Support Fails
Another horizontal support sits at $4,780. If both support levels fail, the index may fall toward the $4,500 psychological zone. This level is crucial as it marks a long-term support and potential reversal point.
At present, bearish momentum dominates, with much strength coming from trade war fears. Unless data shifts investor sentiment, the downtrend may persist.
Head & Shoulder Breakdown: Will S&P 500 Drop Another 10%?● The S&P 500 has experienced significant volatility recently, mainly due to President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs.
● On April 3, 2025, the index saw a nearly 5% drop, its worst single-day loss in five years.
● The recent price action suggests that the index has broken below the neckline of the Head and Shoulder pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend.
◉ Key support levels to watch
● 1st Support - 5,200 - 5,250
● 2nd Support - 4,950 - 5,000
THERE IS NO SECOND BEST!!!!!Isn't 7,173,313,985.56% enough to make this clear?
Strong confidence for a new ATH later this year.
Man, always good to recall what is the best performing asset ever.
SPX keeping it simple looking at the weekly chart on SPX. Using fib and basic wave theory.
There is plenty of panic in the markets right now besides one guy.
WARREN Buffet he's looking for opportunity.
The simple way to break it down is a 50% retracement from Oct 22 low to the ATH is the top of the post covid high. looking at in an Elliot wave theory 5 wave
1 is our post covid high on Jan 3 2022. Then we head to the second wave. this wave ended in October 22 the 3rd wave has ended on Feb 18th 2025. we are currently in the 4th wave. this is a correction phase. Wave 4 is 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3 but no more than 50%. it is typically 38.2% of wave 3.
Wave five will come or we free fall.
Enter a bear market and ride it out. Buffet said this people do it wrong they buy high and sell low. yes, the turmoil is high but there is always those who will be scared and run
or you find the right place to buy and take the chance.
Trump is a business man and he's doing business. he's playing chess when everyone else is playing checkers. once the 9 trillion debt that is due for refinance is taken care of do you really think he will let the market crash and him and his goons loose money? He stated he is doing this on purpose. Bring interest rates down and stocks down. Equals good buying opportunities
Hold tight it will be a wild ride.
SPX On Verge Of A Bearish Decent - Weekly ViewThe S&P 500 is pointing at a long descent downwards based upon simple technical analysis. To further bolster our projection of the market it is no secret the recent trade wars are going to have a major negative impact upon the US & world economy for obvious reasons. With this in mind we can paint a clear picture of where price action is going to head. The question remains where do we enter short?
As we can see in our chart we have broke the current upwards bullish weekly trend line #2. Price action has quickly took a swing downwards to our second trend line #1. In short trend lines simply put are the bottom lows of a bullish market. We can clearly define these trend lines over a long period of time where price action has risen, declined, and then continued its current trend upwards. By marking three bottom or more bottoms lows in a bullish market we can project bottom prices of where price action should never cross below. So what happens when price crosses below these said trend lines? Easy, price action will decrease. This is the case on our chart viewing for trend #2.
As for where price action will continue downwards and stop we can simply view the past history of the market to determine this. Viewing trend line #1 we can see this was the bottom start of the bullish market was 2023 Oct on the weekly chart. Price action has increased aprox. 48 percent with no more than a 8.5 percent in the summer of 2024. That is until our King Donny Trump entered office. From the top of last peak in this bullish cycle SPX has fallen roughly 6.5 percent. Price has clearly broken trend line #2 and is now testing the resistance of price at trend line #1. If price shall break the trend line #2 we will easily fall into our support zone #1. Support zones are nothing more than where price action consolidated sideways for a period of time. These zones are like magnets. Price almost always 'pulls' towards these zones as it is a proven history of the market resistance and support.
The earning moving average(EMA) of the SPX is even more concerning. The red(10 day), blue(21 day), yellow(50day) are the thin lines just below the candles in the chart. The EMA is exactly what it sounds like. The past earning moving average over the past 'x' amount of days. Viewing the EMA data allows you see if the price average is above, on par, or below 'x' amount of past days. This is very important key metric to determine the average market price over a period of time as you can imagine. Even more so important is when price declines below the EMA line. Price going below a 50, 100, or 200 day moving average are levels we want to watch. Currently price action has bounced right off the 50 day EMA. No surprise as this is a very important resistance level day traders will buy only to sell off shortly after. Crossing below the 50 day(yellow line) is known as the 'death cross' for a reason. If price crosses below it we can certainly count on a decline in price action into support zone #1 with easy.
Aggressive 0 DTE PUT spreadPlaying the bounce / recovery on a big drop for SPX today, short term 0 DTE.
-5400 +5395 15% gain in premium
S&P 500 (SPX) 1M next week?The S&P 500 is pulling back from a key resistance after completing a bearish AB=CD pattern on the monthly chart. Price action suggests a potential correction toward the 4662–4700 zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which may serve as a key area for bullish reaccumulation. Momentum indicators show bearish divergence, hinting at a cooling rally.
Fundamentally, the index remains supported by strong earnings in tech and AI sectors, but risks persist from elevated interest rates, sticky inflation, and potential Fed policy shifts. A pullback into the 4662–4700 zone may offer a medium-term setup for continuation toward 5198 and potentially 5338. A breakdown below 4662 would invalidate the bullish structure and shift focus to lower Fibonacci levels.
SPX Targeting $4400 rangeThe S&P 500 is in a correction phase, possibly heading toward deeper Fib support (~4465 or lower), with a temporary bounce expected soon. Watch for bullish or bearish confirmation around the 0.382 and 0.175 levels to guide next moves.
SPX500 Analysis – Has the Bottom Formed or Is More Downside?Hello traders,
Taking a closer look at the SPX500 and discussing whether the market has found a bottom or if there’s further downside ahead. From a technical perspective, price action is still showing signs of weakness, with critical support levels yet to be tested.
Key Technical Points:
• Bearish Expansion: A key swing high formed before price broke structure with a volatile bearish move, ending a year-long bullish pattern.
• Confluence Support at 4779: This level aligns with the value area high, 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and a high timeframe support zone.
• Next Target if Support Fails: If 4779 is lost, the point of control (POC) becomes the next downside target.
The recent bearish expansion suggests a shift in market sentiment. Although the 4779 region could offer a technical bounce, it is crucial to wait for confirmation. A strong reaction from this level may provide short-term relief, but without follow-through, it could be short-lived.
If this support zone breaks, we may see an accelerated move towards the POC, which would confirm a deeper correction. This would likely spill over into other global markets, potentially triggering a broader risk-off environment.
Given the current high volatility, it’s essential to let the market find equilibrium before making any major trading decisions. Patience and precision are key—wait for the next move to be backed by volume and structure before stepping in.
S&P500 target 4550The markets are spooked by the recent Trump Administration Tariff's. Such political mayhem harks back to the Smoot Hawley Tariffs of 1930 , when Protectionism plummeted the world into chaos.
Fear and Panic has gripped investors. The last week has seen a rapid decline of this index, with the market falling over 5% in the recent trading session. To date the market is down 17.5 percent from the high of 6147. It is likely we will pass into Bear Market territory in the coming week.
From a technical perspective , last week was the largest bear candle in the last 5 years and the RSI has moved into the oversold zone.
If we look to the last Bear Market of 2022, the 200 Week MAV acted as support. This may be an area again, where the market forms a low. This would coincide with a 70.5 percentile Fibonacci retracement.
So 4550 is the updated target for the current move down.
Stocks jittery as markets await tariffs Volatility was again the name of the game in equity markets as investors braced for President Donald Trump’s impending tariff announcement, which promises to reshape global trade dynamics. With uncertainty swirling around the scope and impact of his so-called reciprocal tariffs, there remains little consensus on how markets will react as the final deliberations unfold.
A few headlines that have come out:
Trump administration official has confirmed that Amazon has put in a bid to buy TikTok
Tesla Inc. jumped 5% on hopes Elon Musk will refocus on the carmaker as a news report suggested his time as a top adviser to Trump may end soon.
US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% -- Sky News
The bands will differ by both country and industry depending on how the White House views barriers to trade.
CNBC: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING REVOCATION OF TARIFF EXEMPTIONS FOR CHEAP SHIPMENTS FROM CHINA - SOURCE
Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight - Reuters
The key resistance area to watch today is between 5670 to 5695 - as shaded in yellow on the chart. This zone was previously support and has now turned into a bit of resistance, capping today's gains. Will the selling pressure resume from here or do we go back above it?
It all depends on severity of tariffs.
In the event we go lower, then the area between 5500 to 5550 is the key support zone to watch.
In the event the market go higher, and break through 5670 to 5695 zone, then the 200-day average and prior resistance near 5770-5787 will come into focus next.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Bitcoin Breaks Free from the S&P 500: The Start of a New EraWe may be witnessing a historic moment in the evolution of Bitcoin. On April 3rd, 2025 at 15:00 UTC, Bitcoin officially broke its correlation with the S&P 500 a connection that had persisted for years.
Since that moment, the divergence has become clear:
• The S&P 500 has continued its sharp decline, now down over 7%, amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions.
• Meanwhile, Bitcoin has held strong, even climbing up to 4%, and has now entered a period of sideways consolidation rather than following the broader market into panic.
As of April 4th, 2025 at 20:00 UTC, this trend is holding and it might just signal the start of a new era for digital assets.
📉 A Shift in Market Psychology
Historically, BTC has mirrored traditional markets, especially during moments of fear. But this time is different. Bitcoin is resisting the gravitational pull of global financial weakness.
This could mean that investors are starting to see Bitcoin not as a high-risk tech bet, but as a legitimate hedge against global instability a digital store of value.
🔍 Why It Makes Sense
• 🌐 Borderless: Bitcoin is not tied to any single economy or government.
• 🏛️ Decentralized: No central authority can manipulate its supply.
• 💎 Scarce and predictable: With a fixed max supply of 21 million, Bitcoin offers transparency and reliability.
In a world of rising protectionism and financial tension, Bitcoin offers what traditional systems can’t: a neutral, incorruptible asset available to anyone, anywhere.
🔮 What’s Next?
If the decoupling continues, we could see:
• 📈 Capital shifting into Bitcoin for protection, not just speculation.
• 🚀 A new wave of adoption, as institutions and individuals look for safe havens.
• 🔁 Altcoin markets gaining momentum, once confidence trickles down from Bitcoin's stability.
🧠 Final Thoughts
This moment could be a turning point. While traditional markets falter, Bitcoin holds firm. While governments talk tariffs and trade wars, Bitcoin offers freedom.
If this trend continues, it may redefine the role of Bitcoin in the global economy — not just as a volatile asset, but as a truly global store of value and pillar of financial independence.
S&P 500 (US500) Bearish Wave Setup | VSA + Elliott Wave + Multi-1. Elliott Wave Structure
Price seems to be in wave (4) of a 5-wave drop. A final move down (wave (5)) is expected toward the 4,460–4,340 zone, which lines up with Fibonacci targets and a strong support area.
2. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)
Several VSA signals like No Demand, Supply, and Professional Selling appeared on the chart. These point to weak buying pressure and strong selling interest.
3. Multi-Timeframe Channel Zones
Price rejected from the top of long-term (12M) channels and is now dropping toward lower channel zones on multiple timeframes (6M, 3M, 1M).
4. Trade Plan
Short trades are in play with clean stop loss and take profit targets. The setup aims for the 4,460–4,340 support area as the main target zone.
Summary
This setup combines:
Elliott Wave theory
Volume analysis
Multi-timeframe price channels
All pointing to a likely move lower. Let's see how it plays out!
The Dump is OverThe Dump is Over, China is done, Vietnam is going to replace China imports to US at 0% rate, US companies will have to look at america now, not china anymore, that the new gameplan
Liberation or Obliteration?Notice the pattern here, the last time we had a fed pivot the market went up for a couple of months and then a huge draw down. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes. We are being held up by the 0.382 Fib, so we are technically still bullish believe it or now.
What’s next? If the tariff issues are not resolved we will get a total melt down, the likes of which we haven’t seen before.
So if you are hopeful that the tariffs will be resolved, this is an excellent opportunity to buy the dip. I was largely long gold but I have not almost exited my position, please look at my trade idea on gold which was a textbook long.
Now I’m putting that cash to work and slowly buying up the best assets the market has to offer. I will add to my long term investment in the AI companies, data center and top class software names. But I’m not going all in, I’m reserving dry powder for more draw downs. For now this technical analysis suggests now is the time to be slowly deploying.
Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
SHORT TERM BOTTOM/BUYZONE w/SELL ZONE.Charting a short-term bottom (3mos. - 6mos.) We may quest to 5000. However, I believe this to be the end of a two part measured move to the downside.
SP500 Plunges 8% in a day!! Oversold or more pain ahead?The SP500 has suffered a massive 8% drop, currently trading around 5158 at the moment, after market turmoil triggered by Trump's new tariff war. Panic selling has pushed the 30-minute RSIto an extreme oversold level of around 28, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
Possible Scenarios:
🔹 Short-Term Bounce? The RSI suggests a possible technical rebound, with key resistance around 5200-5250 if buyers step in. Watch for volume confirmation.
🔹 Further Downside? If panic continues, the next major support lies at 5100, followed by 5000 psychological level, where institutional buyers might defend price.
⚠️ Caution: Markets remain highly volatile! A dead-cat bounce is possible, but uncertainty surrounding tariffs could fuel more downside pressure. Stay sharp!
📊 What’s Your Take? Will SP500 recover or break lower? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥
#SP500 #StockMarketCrash #Tariffs #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #RSI
Your daily DON'T PANIC reminderHi fellow traders.
This is your daily reminder not to panic. STICK to your strategy.
We're on the elevator down, but WE WILL climb the stairs back up. zoom out on an S&P or Nasdaq chart. STONKS GO UP. It hurts now, but this is also the time to accumulate stocks you have always wanted.
Look for the levels. Don't panic. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY!
S&P500 will start to riseAsper Elliott wave forecasting the current 4th wave ended this week.
A new wave will begin as 'c5' during 1'st week of April and it may be the climax rally.
Validity of this wave count holds good as long as last weeks low respected.
Traders can initiate long with 5500 as strict stop.
The target will be reached swiftly
