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SPX500 trade ideas

No Bottom in the S&P 500 Yet!Unsurprisingly, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX Index) – one of the most popular measures of US stock market volatility – recently shook hands with 30.00, levels not seen since August 2024. As a result, I am closely monitoring the daily charts of the VIX (with standard Bollinger Bands overlaid) and the S&P 500. As shown on the charts, the VIX closed above the upper Bollinger Band, signalling that sentiment could be overstretched and may revert to the mean. Consequently, as on many occasions in the past, this suggests that S&P 500 bulls may attempt to step in. However, chart studies reveal support is not evident until 5,190, which happens to be joined by a 100% projection ratio at 5,152 (an equal AB=CD support pattern). Interestingly, this indicates that further underperformance and higher VIX levels could be on the table before we see signs of a reversal. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
SP:SPXShort
by FPMarkets
Bullish Divergence and the Impact of Trump’s TariffsOn the daily chart of the S&P 500, I’m currently spotting a clear bullish divergence. This type of divergence is a technical pattern that suggests that, despite recent price drops, the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential upward move could be on the horizon. It shows that the index has underlying strength, which the price hasn’t fully reflected yet — making a bullish reversal very likely in the short to mid-term. In this context, the recent drop in the S&P 500 has been largely driven by Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, especially targeting China and other countries. However, based on my analysis, I believe that these tariffs were more of a negotiation tactic than a long-term economic strategy. And now that things are clearly not going as expected, I’m convinced that Trump will be forced to scale back the tariffs or start accepting less favorable trade agreements just to stop the bleeding — because I highly doubt he will allow this sharp market decline to continue unchecked. Why tariffs aren’t coherent or beneficial for the global economy Tariffs are additional taxes on imports. Although they’re often marketed as a way to protect local industries, in reality, they increase prices for consumers and destabilize global supply chains. The result is damaging for both the countries imposing the tariffs and those receiving them. In the case of the U.S., despite Trump’s promises, these tariffs are actually hurting American companies that rely on imported materials and products, leading to higher internal costs and squeezing consumers. Worse yet, this ongoing trade war has created a climate of global economic uncertainty, which is driving down investment and confidence. That uncertainty has translated into market selloffs around the world, and the S&P 500’s current decline is a direct reflection of that. Importantly, it’s U.S. businesses — not foreign governments — who are absorbing the cost of these tariffs. What to expect going forward Despite the pressure from tariffs, I believe that Trump — seeing the damage already being done to the markets — will have no choice but to start dialing things back. My take is that to avoid a deeper economic hit and restore investor confidence, the U.S. will likely pursue more balanced deals, even if it means compromising a bit. If this scenario plays out, I expect the S&P 500 to begin recovering, especially as investor uncertainty fades. The bullish divergence on the chart further reinforces the idea that once these external political and economic pressures ease, the market could see a strong and sharp rebound. Conclusion Trump’s tariffs were intended as leverage — but they’re clearly backfiring and doing more harm than good. The current S&P 500 correction, in my opinion, is actually a buying opportunity for those with a long-term view. With potential tariff reductions and fairer trade deals on the horizon, the market is likely to rebound strongly, especially with the bullish divergence we’re seeing on the charts. Markets may have already priced in the worst, and now we’re seeing the first technical signals of a potential turnaround. If confirmed, the price could begin to rally significantly in the coming days or weeks.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EmmanuelCova
1
How far will the SP500 eventually fall?There are different numbers here. Most people are heading towards a reasonable range, but there are also extreme statements, and so let's look at what the reality is. In addition to the technical side, which indicates how far it can possibly fall, do not forget that there is also a very strong fundamental and I would even say psychological side here, and all this can be different in just 2 hours if our "favorite" person changes his plans for tariffs, which is also very possible. Therefore, any technical picture now depends on his decisions. So. Turning to the weekly chart, it is clearly seen that the dynamic support line from the accumulated volume lies at $3300-3365. The signals for reversal are clear (the green triangles below). A return there would be a relative return by June 2024. The daily is at $5378-5402, but there it is clear that the decline is logical to continue a little longer. In fact, during the crisis on August 5, both almost coincided and held up. On the 4-hour chart, things are similar. The indicators are screaming "buy". Based on all this, I think the price will fall NO more than $5365-5400 . These are very good entry points, but I do not advise anyone to trade until April 2, although I think things will become clear later today or tomorrow. Everything can change and we will not reach these levels just from two lines written by Trump. www.tradingview.com
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by kometata
2
S&P 500 Down 3% – Divergence AppearsThe S&P 500 (SPX) continues to show a strong bearish bias and is approaching the 5,300-point level in the short term. Selling pressure remains steady as post-“Liberation Day” uncertainty persists, with markets concerned that the recently announced tariffs could significantly impact the U.S. economic outlook. As a result, this could severely limit the performance of equity indices like the S&P 500. Bearish Channel Since February 20, the SPX index has maintained consistent downward momentum, establishing a new bearish channel in the short term. The index has now broken below the key 5,400-point support level. However, the speed of the recent declines may have created an imbalance in market forces, which could pave the way for a bullish correction in upcoming sessions. Divergence in Indicators MACD: Both the MACD line and the signal line have shown higher lows in recent trading sessions, which contrasts with the lower lows in the SPX price, indicating a bullish divergence. RSI: The RSI is showing a similar pattern, with the line forming higher lows while price continues to make lower lows. Additionally, the RSI is now approaching the 30 level, which is typically considered the oversold zone. These divergence and oversold signals suggest that bearish momentum has accelerated sharply, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion. As the balance between buyers and sellers begins to stabilize, this may be an early indication that upward corrections could occur in the next few sessions. Key Levels: 5,780 points – Distant resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. A return to this zone could mark the start of a new bullish phase, posing a threat to the current bearish channel. 5,530 points – Near resistance: This area corresponds to neutral levels seen in recent weeks. It may become a target zone for potential corrective upward moves. 5,388 points – Key support zone: This level matches the lowest prices since September 2024 and is where the price is currently consolidating. If the index breaks decisively below this level, it could lead to a more extended bearish channel in the short term. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
1
S&P500: Recovery has started and the next stop is the 1D MA50.S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.213, MACD = -61.280, ADX = 30.163) as it's recovered from Friday's bearish sentiment and already crossed above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This rebound made Monday's low a Double Bottom and since the 1D RSI is on a HL bullish divergence, we expect a strong 1 month rally to start. The first target is the 1D MA50 slightly over the 0.5 Fib mark (TP1 = 5,835) and after a small correction, the 0.786 Fib (TP2 = 6,000), which is also the top of the 5 month Bull Flag. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
COMPLEX WAVE STRUCTURE FORMING WITHIN WAVE B or 2 HIGH RISKThe chart posted is the updated sp 500 pattern that is forming .I have thought we would see a simple wave structure form as the spiral cycles topped 2/19 and bottom3/13 in perfect timing since the two bottom I have gone long twice and shorted twice at both tops . I now am forced the go to cash and wait for the wave structure to form the next wave The issue is the HIGH VIX and the formation on 15 min and 5 min charts . So being in cash is the best .Best of trades WAVETIMER ! we must hold 5444 /5388 for wave B 1.272 and 1.382 of wave A
TVC:SPX
by wavetimer
1
Trade War PerspectiveSure, tune in to your favorite youtube finance doomer or the news, and it will sound like the end of the world has arrived. I personally feel like this tariff crisis is cover to air out all the dirty laundry that's been hidden the last few years. The AI bubble, the stimmy repayment, the imaginary gold, the "forgot how to grow economy" (credit that last one to Eurodollar University), etc etc. Take a look at this chart. If this is "the end" we have BARELY begun the descent. These types of corrections happen routinely. The point is, don't panic. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY and don't get emotional. Good luck out there. Don't get flushed down the tariff toilet.
SP:SPX
by MonsterStockPicks
SPX developing a wedge similar to 2022As I write this futures are sharply down to 5440 and ViX is at 40. I expect to see a short technical bounce to about 5550, being at major trendline. The wedge formation is similar to 2022. A breakout from Wedge would be sharp either way. If it holds at this level for a couple of weeks then I expect to see a bounce to 5775.I had said earlier in my vix analysis we are in 2022 mode. Market could see a relief rally only to realise that there are still many unknowns. The impact on labour market due to immigration policies, retaliation of other countries and negotiation results thereof, impact on consumer sentiments and extent of inflations due to tariff. Weakening of US dollar will only add to inflation pressure. Trump has only accelerated BRICS agenda of moving away from USD Citadel,Millennium and many other hedge fund are having liquidity problems and FED is been asked to setup a bailout fund for these crooks. They are the highest leveraged entities. A weaker market will precipitate another financial crisis. So far the financial sector hasn't been devalued liketh tech and semi's. I think their turn will come once the market have finished dealing with tech valuations. Once market gets this, it will see a sharp selloff, which is better than slow grind down over months as far as I am concerned When trump says, he doesn't care about the stock market, I think he knows it is overvalued, just like Warren Buffet did last year and sold off most his positions and now sitting on largest cash in history, waiting for it to come to his level of expectation which to to my mind cant be just 10% bat rather like 30% write off in the en, to entice savvy investors like Buffet and Michael Burry to re-enter and clean out the garbage investors like the hedge funds
SPREADEX:SPX
by krisoz
SPX to find sellers at previous resistance?SPX500USD - 24h expiry Daily signals are bearish. Short term bias has turned negative. Previous resistance located at 5700. 20 1day EMA is at 5699.8. 5705.4 has been pivotal. We look to Sell at 5699.5 (stop at 5743.5) Our profit targets will be 5585.5 and 5565.5 Resistance: 5630.0 / 5658.9 / 5700.0 Support: 5602.4 / 5564.3 / 5495.3 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
Bearish reversal?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support. Pivot: 5,684.31 1st Support: 5,508.29 1st Resistance: 5,768.80 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by ICmarkets
S&P500 Last time it made that bottom was 18 months ago.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a multi year Channel Up that goes back to October 2022. The index almost hit the Channel bottom this week and immediately we see a rebound attempt. It may be under the 1week MA50 but this is not disastrous as the patterns last bottom was formed exactly under it on October 23rd 2023, 18 months ago. On top of that, the 1week RSI was exactly where it is now, on the 40.00 Support, bearish enough to call for a long term buy. In addition, the both bearish waved leading to both bottoms were almost -11%. This high symmetry potential suggests that the bullish wave that will follow may be of a similar +28.34% rise. This is a unique opportunity to buy and target 7000. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPXLong
by TheCryptagon
SPY: Breakout Brewing?📍SPX500 | Triangle Compression Before Breakout? SPX500 is currently coiling into a symmetrical triangle on the 5-min chart, suggesting a volatility expansion is imminent. 🔍 Fibonacci Levels in Play: Key Support: 5,419 – 5,428 (0.5 to 0.618 retracement) Breakout Target: 5,482.83 (Fib 1.382) Higher Projections: 5,499.94 (1.618), 5,516.82 (1.854) 📈 Probabilities: Bullish Breakout → 5,455 / 5,483 = 65% Sideways Chop in 5,420–5,440 range = 20% Bearish Fade < 5,419 = 15% 🚨 Watching for confirmation above 5,434 with volume for long entry. This setup aligns with our high-probability DSS framework for intraday signals. Mark your levels. Monitor the breakout. 🧠 Discipline is your alpha. 📊 Chart by: Wavervanir International LLC #SPX500 #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #TrianglePattern #BreakoutStrategy #SmartMoney #QuantEdge #Wavervanir #MarketUpdate #DayTrading #DSS #SP500
FX:SPX500Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Caution on Crypto, Tech, SPXI know its a mess, this is just for me anyway. I tend to overcomplicate things so now then, lets over simplify for my monkey brain: Trend line broken = Warning, thing are likely to change ( even though you didnt get the bull market you wanted) Watch said trend retest, look for weakness, struggling price action selling on the retest of the top lows last time would offer you 5% off the peako top, (Thats really good!! stop being a perfectionist) I am very much frustrated with this market, never got the crazy part I was waiting for. But the lack of euphoria is really not that unreasonable when you think about what has been goin on the past 5 years. Everyone is poorer liquidity has been super tight to curb inflation and we still got NASDAQ:NDX up 150% Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN did a 10x and I still am not happy(likely due to the max pain trade of my life COINBASE:ETHUSD ). I have realized that I have been hoping for another 2018 bull run. It may or may not happen, but I can't expect any market to reflect that in any significant way. Markets are much more dynamic than I give them credit for sometimes. They will rhyme but often in ways you do not expect and will not be made clear until that little bastard hindsight kicks in, showing you how obvious it was.
SP:SPXShort
by merchtank19
S&P500 INTRADAY sideways consolidationThe Trump administration is moving ahead with tariff plans on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, launching Commerce Department probes. In response, China has ordered its airlines to halt new Boeing jet deliveries, escalating trade tensions. Despite the trade war, markets are getting a lift after Trump suggested a possible pause on auto tariffs and suspended some consumer electronics tariffs. Japan will meet with the U.S. this week to discuss trade. The talks will test whether close allies like Japan get more favourable treatment. Earnings in Focus: Citigroup and Bank of America report today, following a strong quarter for equity trading across the sector. Johnson & Johnson and United Airlines are also set to report. Oil Market: The International Energy Agency has cut its 2024 oil demand forecast due to trade-related slowdowns and sees a potential supply surplus through 2026. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5509 Resistance Level 2: 5660 Resistance Level 3: 5787 Support Level 1: 5110 Support Level 2: 4947 Support Level 3: 4816 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation