S&P 500 off earlier highsThe major US indices have come noticeably off their earlier highs, following the positive start on the back of the weekend news of temporary tariff relief on technology sector.
The fact the indices could break out to test waters above last week's highs, suggests traders have not been convinced that they have had the all-clear just yet. Perhaps volatility will ease a little this week, but with earnings from tech giants to come in the next couple of weeks, on top of all the trade war saga, anything is possible. Traders must remain nimble.
It is all about the 5380 level now on the S&P 500. This is where it found resistance on Friday and now this level could turn into support. But if we break decisively below it again, then this could trigger a big of selling towards the next support at 5272.
However, the near-term trend has turned bullish following the big recovery last week. So, dip-buyers will be lurking. Let's see where we go from here.
In any case, more bullish price action is needed to completely nullify the bearish control. Specifically, the key resistance zone between 5490 to 5550 must give way before the bulls can be confident that we have see a major low last week.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SPX500 trade ideas
SPX Fractal Expansion: New Highs Ahead Despite FearAs of April 14, 2025, the CBOE:SPX is exhibiting a clear fractal expansion, suggesting the beginning of a new bullish leg. The recent correction, which caused widespread panic, appears to have completed a fractal cycle reset, with price respecting historical support near 4704 and forming a new fractal edge around 5300.
Despite the fear-driven selloff, momentum indicators like RSI and MACD show signs of bottoming, and volume surged on rebound days, confirming strong institutional buying. The price is now testing temporary resistance at 5878, with a path open to reclaim all-time highs (6100+).
Global & Technical Tailwinds
Technical momentum is recovering across timeframes, with positive divergence on stochastic oscillators.
Breadth is improving: More stocks are participating in the rally, reflecting internal strength.
Sentiment has flipped: The VIX has cooled from panic levels (above 45), and investor fear is easing.
Macro support: Inflation is declining, and central banks are signaling potential rate cuts by late 2025.
Earnings outlook remains solid, and analysts forecast SPX to end 2025 around 6500–7100.
🔍Conclusion
The SPX is carving out a fractal mirror of past bullish reversals, reinforced by strong macro and technical context. Barring unexpected shocks, the index is likely to break above resistance and push toward new highs, even as residual fear lingers. The setup favors buying dips within this emerging structure.
S&P500 INTRADAY oversold bounce backMarkets Overview – Monday US Open
Trump Tariffs: Trump says tariffs on phones, computers, and other consumer tech are still on the table, calling the weekend exemption just a "procedural step."
Tech Rally: Despite that, tech stocks are up Apple and Nvidia leading on hopes the delay gives room for a better long-term trade deal.
Futures & Gold: US equity futures are pointing higher. Gold hit a new record as investors seek safe-haven assets.
FX Moves: The dollar is down for a fifth straight day, with the euro is surging, it is thefastest rally vs USD in 15 yearsas, traders eye a move toward $1.20.
Earnings Outlook:
Q1 earnings season kicks into gear this week.
Citigroup and Morgan Stanley lowered their S&P 500 earnings forecasts, citing tariff concerns and broader economic headwinds.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
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SPX sharp moves begin arround monthly option expiryWatch out for the this weeks options expiry on Thursday (Friday being holiday)
During volatile time option expiry does produce sharp moves. They are not that significant during normal markets. Also key levels approaching. Monday after Easter, I am expecting the new move to happen. Breakdown or breakout.
I am sure the big boys are aware from the social media that everyone is expecting a reversal and they will set up a trap. They will make us thing we are wrong create a FOMO to the upside and then sell
A volume drop could indicate a big move
$SPX: Rising WedgeSPX looking a bit tight, possibly a rising wedge?
Tariff news has been such a wash up. Tariffs on/Tariffs off. A lot of moving pieces and indecision. If the news is false regarding electronics not included, then markets can possibly take a downturn.
Green ray is my entry, I’m looking for a short. But tbh, any one word “positive” said can move things up and fill the gap above.
I’m going to bias short. Let’s see what the week brings.
SP:SPX AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA
SPX 500 >>> Trade Idea FOR CALL FRAME 75
If price reaches $5,300 after a clear rejection from the current level, consider a long position with a stop loss at $5,250 (below the identified order block). Take Profit at $5,500 (previous high level). This setup aims to capture a mean reversion move following the liquidity sweep.
Long Term TrendlineA long term trend line on the SPX
Great place to buy if you are speculative of the current price movement
Price from this line will most likely move up
If not up from this trend line, very bearish.
Great time within a bear market to buy oversold stock regardless. Just have to HODL.
If bearish HODL .
TP 3300 Long term projectionsS&P we have seen the blow off TOP this early beginning of bearish trend , sell will continue almost 15 months set your target 🎯 3300 get this trend profit taking
as mentioned below
TP1. 5100
TP2. 46500
TP3. 3900
TP4. 3300
Long term projections those who invest sell side for longer term
Some say bitcoin is an un-correlated asset. What about XRP ???This chart clearly shows how XRP is uncorrelated to the price of the S&P !!
Some experts in crypto say that Bitcoin is an un-correlated asset. However, if bitcoin is, XRP is even more so.
The chart moreover shows how the price of XRP broke out of an 7 YEAR BEAR FLAG !!!
It broke down decisevely in november 2024.
At the present moment it is making a halt, drawing a bear flag (n° 2) as it did after it broke down of a very similar bear flag in March of 2017 (n° 1).
How do you think this will resolve ?
Any more questions ?
This is a very bearish chart - for the SPX !!!
Just Let Me Cash Out Before the Weekend | SPX Analysis 11 April Let’s be honest…
This week has been ridiculous.
The market pumped harder than a spin class on espresso because of a rumour.
Then dumped.
Then teased a breakout.
Then decided against it mid-sentence.
It’s been a full-blown rollercoaster of overreactions, headline bait, and “wait, what did Trump say now?” moments.
But amidst the noise, the plan is still holding up.
5400?
Still resistance.
Still our pivot level.
Still doing its job.
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👁️ Trader’s Eye View – Charting the Nonsense
Let’s recap what I’m seeing:
📉 Earlier this week, the 5400 bull trigger got pierced by an emotional market surge.
But there was no confirmation, no sustained breakout – and we’ve reversed since then.
Now?
We’re seeing the start of a rising channel – but every turn seems to align with a tweet, a walk-back, or a reaction to misread data.
It’s like price is drawing patterns using the tip of a headline.
That’s not conviction.
That’s chaos dressed as structure.
🧭 What I’m Doing Now
📌 Still bearish below 5400
📌 Watching for a move to 5000 or the rising channel low
📌 Will use Tag ‘n Turn, Pulse Bars, and GEX flips for entries
The ideal scenario?
Let my bear swing cash out before the close, pour something brown into a glass, and avoid blood pressure spikes over the weekend.
That’s the play.
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🎯 Expert Insight – When the Chart's Not Lying, But the Headlines Are
Mistake:
Assuming a spike equals a breakout. Trading on headline strength instead of chart strength.
Fix:
Let the level prove itself.
5400 is my line in the sand – not because I said so, but because price keeps reacting to it.
That’s structure. That’s what we trade.
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Fun Fact
In 2020, the average headline-related spike in SPX lasted under 37 minutes before mean-reverting.
This week?
We saw multiple trillion-dollar reactions last less than half an hour.
It’s not a breakout if it’s a sugar rush.
SPX500 on the Brink: Unveiling the Critical 4800 Gann Pivot ThatThe chart is drawn inside a Gann Square from the 2020 low (March COVID bottom) to a projected 2030 high, mapping both time (X-axis) and price (Y-axis) in 1:1 ratio (Square of Time & Price).
The blue ascending diagonal (45° line) represents the ideal balance of time and price (1 point per unit of time). A break of this line is often seen as a major trend reversal signal.
Colored zones:
Green zone (top-right triangle): bullish expansion territory.
Yellow zone (center): consolidation/transition.
Red zone (bottom-right): bearish decline/major correction zone.
🟢 Bullish Continuation - Bounce from current level or 4800 support - Next Target 5,800–6,200 - maximum by 4 2025–Q2 2026. (Bounce from 0.5 level means trend is intact and accelerating into green zone)
🟡 Sideways/Neutral - Holds between 4800–5400 - TP could be 6,400 ±200 pts range Until ~March 2026 (0.618 time). This Indicates market is digesting gains; triangle pattern may form!!
🔴 Bearish Breakdown - Break and close below 4,800 - TP could be 4,100 (Fib 0.382) then 3,200 (Gann 0.25) Through 2026.Fall into red zone begins if 0.5 support fails — major cyclical top in place
The Yield Curve is NOT InvertedLately I've been seeing a lot of people incorrectly state that the Yield Curve is currently inverted.
IT IS NOT.
Easily measurable 10Y - 2Y.
Google the definition if you need to.
I laid out the impact of the yield curve inverting against the S&P 500.
In most cases, you can see SP:SPX sells off slightly after inverting.
The higher the spread, the healthier the market is.
You want funds buying longer dated securities for market stability and confidence.
Don't Panic. Global Financial Crisis Relief RalliesThis is your daily reminder not to panic. No fear mongering here, friends. Take advantage of the relief rallies (aka "Bear Market Rallies").
What you see here is a chart of the Global Financial Crisis ('GFC'). I wanted to show that even in the GFC we had frequent relief rallies. I've highlighted a number of them in this chart.
Relief rallies are the times when you can unload garbage positions, take profits on swing trades during the descent, or just free up cash (to collect interest in money market while you wait the crisis out).
Also note that some of the relief rallies last multiple weeks. These are where "they" (yes, THE "THEY") try to draw you fully back in.
Relief rallies are frequent, and, unless society as we know it completely collapses, there will be a bottom.
Stick to your strategy! No panicking here.
The moment of truth for ETH has comeThe moment of truth for ETH has come, either Ethereum is going to be a worthless asset or it will retest the December highs, 2025 is only at the beginning...
Pectra 07 may bullish for eth!? doesn't it?
ETH at 1500 is a buying opportunity... tariffs are distractions
Trump Tariff Bloodbath!SPX Trump Tarrif Bloodbath…
The SPX just experienced a brutal 21% drop from its previous all-time highs, wiping out an entire year’s worth of gains in just a few short weeks.
However, the market has found support at a critical level — the golden pocket between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area also aligns with the Anchored VWAP, offering solid support around the 4900 level. Despite the recent turbulence, we’re still holding within the rising parallel channel that’s been supporting the broader bullish trend.
Holding this confluence zone (Fib + AVWAP) would be a strong signal for a potential continuation higher.
That said, I’ve highlighted a potential capitulation zone between 4450 and 4070. While reaching that level would require a powerful impulsive correction from here, it’s wise to be aware of what’s still on the table.
We’ve also formed a bullish shark fin, and the RSI briefly dipped below the oversold 20 level. Historically, when the weekly RSI hits that extreme, it’s often marked excellent entry points.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves — we also need to consider the pattern seen in the last major correction: a bounce to the 30 RSI level, followed by a lower low that formed bullish divergence. I’m watching closely for a similar setup, which would suggest another leg down after this interim rally.
Key resistance now sits near the 50-week SMA, currently between 5480 and 5680. Both the 21 and 50 SMAs are starting to curl down — something to watch, as they could act as headwinds going forward.
One last thing: the last time we lost the 50 SMA on the weekly, it took nearly 260 days of correction before we finally reclaimed it (that’s the green line on the chart).
Bottom line — buckle up. If we lose the lower bound of the rising channel (around 4900 on a weekly close), I’m expecting more downside ahead.
S&P 500 ( INTRADAY ANALYSIS ) - Thursday 10th AprilS&P 500 can remain volatile on Thursday's trading session. Even then, I'm expecting a positive closing . Support on the downside would be 5396, and if it slips below 5396, then it can fall upto 5351-5294. On the upside, upon crossing 5498, we can expect good upside upto 5607-5636.
Potential Short Move to 5000This idea is in accordance with the Price slipping out of the cloud but closes below it and with strong downwards trends over a few months, price has retraced to the golden ratio zone so it may be a good opportunity to sell right now after confirmation of a downwards trend due to this price being a key level. Hence it could be a potential short position, I'm not in the trade but this is a likely outcome from the technicals and fundamentals
Black Monday is Coming – Time to Short This Beast!Alright, listen up, traders! The storm is brewing, the signs are clear, and if you haven't noticed yet—wake up! Black Monday is knocking, and the market is looking ripe for a proper dump.
Now, I'm not saying sell your grandma’s jewelry and go all-in, but if you're looking for a juicy short entry, this might just be it. Ideally, you want to get in around that sweet spot in the yellow zone (check the chart) or even from the current levels if you're feeling extra spicy.
Risk? What Risk? (Just Kidding, Manage It!)
Stop-loss? Yeah, slap that bad boy above $6,150 on the 4-hour close. If price secures above that level, it's a no-go—cut it and move on.
Take profits? Scale out as price nosedives. No need to be greedy; let the market pay you in chunks.
The Big Picture
This ain't financial advice—just a battle plan from someone who's seen enough bloodbaths in the markets to smell the fear. High risk? Absolutely. But hey, no risk, no champagne.
Remember, risk management is king. Play it smart, lock in profits, and let the market do the heavy lifting-because when the dust settles, only disciplined traders will be left standing.
SPXA few days early but not wrong.
SPX looking good having bounced from confluent support at 2008 to present channel mid AND 2021 highs...
Yesterday's "largest intraday reversal ever" filled gap at Monday's close; better to have filled that instead of leaving it unfilled -- now all relevant gaps below filled.
And today is largest SPX daily gain ever.
I believe you would agree, bottom is in. New highs by DJT's birthday. Never fade a time traveler.
The Bearish Cycle of SPX has begun.TL Overshort, rejected, recent price action(PA) has been bearish, the market seems to be overvalued.
The AI rush will subside due to the lack of data storage, and questions about how to sustain energy consumption, among other concerns about the sustainability of the tech rush, remain.
I think the tech industry will be the leading factor in the bearish cycle as the market continues finding lower levels from higher highs (HH). The forecast predicts a movement towards 4,400 points on the S&P 500 (SPX).