Hyg and vixWell hard to argue this thing show oscylator kid behavior. I really do hope we gonna pierce dashed line. Otherwise we may have some serious discount on stocks.
SPX500 trade ideas
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis 3 January 2025
- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6000.00
S&P 500 index today reversed up from the support area located between key support level 5855.00 (former resistance from October, which has been reversing the price from the start of November), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse from November.
This support area was further strengthened by the support trendline of the daily up channel from September.
Given the clear daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next round resistance level 6000.00.
SELLING NAKED OPTIONS : today selling 5825 SPX put for 1 weekHere is an option strategy with the help of 4 indicators
Commodity Channel Index
Distance to Upper and Lower Bollinger Band
DMI
Parabolic
First I look at the emergence of a trend change through the Parabolic
Then I look at the 3 other measure of strengths
Most of the time selling naked works .
I am expecting my DMI indicator to move into green. Then by next week should it move back to red, I will act accordingly
US stock indices surge into week's endUS stock index futures were firmer in early trade this morning. They were firmer in early trade yesterday morning too. But that didn’t stop them turning lower as the session progressed. Yesterday’s move saw the S&P 500 hit lows last seen on Friday, 20th December when investors were dumping stocks following the Fed’s ‘hawkish rate cut’ from the previous Wednesday. It was a similar story for all the US majors yesterday, and, to show that the sell-off was tech-led, the NASDAQ 100 fell back to levels last seen at the end of November. The lows were hit early evening European time. After that, the US indices recovered somewhat, ending the day with modest losses, although, as yesterday, the mid-cap Russell 2000 managed to creep into positive territory. Does this week’s stock market behaviour provide clues for the rest of the year? Probably not. It’s fair to say that much of the recent volatility and downside pressure comes as a result of year-end window dressing and fund rebalancing, as managers shift their weightings between equities and bonds. This became necessary due to weakness in the bond market since mid-September (ironically just after the Fed slashed rates by 50 basis points) contrasting with strength across equities going back to October 2023. So we’ll have to see how things go for the rest of this month, particularly once we get past Trump’s inauguration on 20th January. At the time of writing (just after the European close again) US stock indices are staging an impressive rally and on their highs. It’s probably too late for the S&P to complete a full ‘Santa Rally’, as that would require an upward move of over 150 points today. The yield on the 10-year is back up to 4.58% this afternoon, although equity buyers don’t seem too concerned. While elevated yields may indicate expectations of stronger economic growth, rather than simply an inflation bounce, they’re also a response to the US’s budget deficit, and the prospect of the huge Treasury issuance required to cover it.
Next Big Move: Weekly GEX & Key LevelsWeekly GEX & Key Levels – Options Recap
Chop Zone (5850–6055)
This range is likely the short-term “parking” area for sideways price action.
Expect the market to oscillate here unless a stronger directional catalyst emerges.
Gamma ‘Deny Zone’ (Below 5850)
Dropping below 5850 can amplify negative gamma effects, potentially fueling a stronger downside move.
Watch for increased volatility and momentum if this area is breached.
Gamma-Squeeze Breakout Zone (Above 6055)
A break above 6055 neutralizes the call gamma wall, potentially triggering a rapid rally (gamma squeeze).
Consider bullish option plays if this level is reclaimed and confirmed.
Options Perspective
IVRank 23.8: Moderately elevated implied volatility (~1–2% potential daily moves).
Puts 87%: Significant open interest in PUT positions, especially around 5800–5900 strikes, often acting as a strong support zone.
Gamma Flip (~5923): A critical pivot where market maker positioning flips, potentially creating intraday turning points.
Practical Strategies
Range Trading in the Chop Zone
Iron condors, short strangles, or other neutral strategies.
Stay alert for any breakout that can quickly move the market beyond this range.
Bullish Breakout Above 6055
Consider call debit spreads or bull call spreads to capture a swift upside move.
Look for a confirmed break (ideally on higher volume).
Bearish Breakdown Below 5850
Hedge with protective puts or put debit spreads if you hold existing long exposure.
Negative gamma could accelerate downside momentum.
Summary
Base Case: Likely consolidation between 5850 and 6055.
Upside: Above 6055, a gamma-driven squeeze could rapidly push prices higher.
Downside: Below 5850, stronger selling pressure may emerge.
Manage risk according to your plan and remain vigilant for any surprise catalysts.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always use proper risk management based on your own trading objectives.
Key Levels for the Month ∷01.2025 ∷S&P500🔳Key Levels Overview for the Month🔲 ∷01.2025 🐍
Dynamic Resistance🔀
6015
5935
Dynamic Supports🔀
∷∷∷∷
Mid Pivot (🐻bull&bear🐂 zone ch trend)
6592
6278
5952
range of supply and demand
6383
6179
5975
Range Band 🐇
6488
6229
5969
Order of lines:
1. 🌸 Shocking Pink, 💜 Dark Orchid
2. 🟢 Green, 🔴 Red, 🟡 Yellow
3. ⬜ White
4. ❤️ Falu Red, 🌿 Crusoe, ⚫ Black
5. 🌷 Pale Pink, 🍏 Granny Apple, 🌫️ Storm Grey
6. 💙 Neon Blue
S&P500 INDEX / bearish or still bullish confirmation...S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price has stabilized below the support level at 5,935, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend toward 5,863. If it breaks below this level, the next target would be 5,808.
On the other hand, a 4-hour candle closing above 5,935 is required to confirm a bullish trend, with a target of 5,969.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5935
Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5863, 5790, 5820
Trend Outlook:
Bearish: Stability below 5,935
Bullish: If 5,935 is broken
SPX Gann Box Stacking....without textInteresting idea...every time it cracks the gray, it runs to the orange .25 Gann retrace and then pulls back 50 or so %
But what if it has failed at the grey line this time...and cant scream higher to 16k like past times...
Well if we apply about 50% down to the gray line...you arrive at 2k on the S&P 500, some 4k down..
Or..OR..maybe you only get to the 7k line which is the retracement of the .25 Gann....thenn...
You then retrace about 50% from that 7k line and hit about 3.6k on the S&P 500
This is called Gann-Box Stacking...You take the ultra low and the screaming high, before a massive correction,
then you stack those boxes until you hit present day (removed vertical bars for clarity purposes)
Neat eh??
So what are your thoughts people...run to 7k...
Or...fall to 3.6k, then 2k, or go back to the .25 of 2000/2009
Just a reprint from chart in case you wanted to copy this for sharing...
Things are only random until you throw enough pooo at it,, then the most hardy piece sticks and you see what was real and what was hanging on by a thread
SPX 2025 7000+ The most likely scenario.Experts who forecast stock market collapses and peddle narratives of financial despair often refrain from investing in the very concepts they promote; otherwise, they would face severe financial ruin on a repeated basis.
From the very beginning of this decade, I have championed a bold, risk-taking stance, predicting that these years will be remembered as the roaring 2020's, a time marked by an echo bubble of the 1920's.
This era is defined by the powerful convergence of technology, artificial intelligence, and blockchain, all propelling asset prices to new heights. The wealth generated by these colossal corporations and blockchain innovations is accumulating and concentrating, leaving behind individuals who are not part of these transformative trends.
Meanwhile, everyday people are grappling with a significant inflationary wave, as the value of their fiat currency continues to dwindle. To compound the issue, in 2024 around 150,000 workers have been laid off from giants like Tesla and Microsoft, a direct result of automation.
In this relentless struggle, machines are emerging victorious.
The age-old saying that markets lack a reason to rise but require one to fall or underperform holds particularly true, especially in the good old USA.
It’s reasonable to think that 2025 will not replicate the precise calendar movements of 2024 so it's prudent to lean towards performance tracking other years such as...
2017, the SPX return stood at 18%, marking it as the year that most closely aligns with 2025, the inaugural year of Trump's presidency.
Fast forward to 2023, where the percentage rose to 24%, making it the nearest reference point in the short term. As we are predicting a continuation of the bull market.
Meanwhile, 2021 reached a peak of 29%, representing the euphoric climax of that cyclical bull market, a scenario that could very well repeat itself in 2025.
The emerging pattern for 2025 appears to be shaped by these three pivotal years. Given that we are now nearer to the conclusion of the bull market than its inception, it seems prudent to draw insights from the trends of 2021 and 2023.
S&P 500 trends and market speculation for 2025As 2025 gets into full swing, traders are navigating a landscape shaped by two years of extraordinary stock market performance. The S&P 500 has delivered back-to-back annual gains exceeding 20% in 2023 and 2024, but analysts are signaling a more tempered outlook for the year ahead. With economic indicators, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical developments in focus, investors are keenly watching for potential trends and reversals.
S&P 500: Riding the momentum
The S&P 500 ended 2024 with an impressive annual gain of approximately 23%, following a 24% increase in 2023. This marks the first occurrence of consecutive gains above 20% since the late 1990s. The rally was fueled by robust economic growth, cooling inflation, and a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, enthusiasm surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's pro-business agenda further bolstered investor sentiment.
However, as we enter a new year, the market is showing signs of caution. December saw a pullback in equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its worst monthly performance in over two years. The S&P 500 also registered its largest monthly loss since April 2024. This correction reflects profit-taking by investors and concerns about the Federal Reserve's revised stance on interest rate cuts.
SPX projection using a look back of 100 yearsThis is the variation on the analysis I did yesterday but with a look back of 100 years, to show you the flexibility of the indicators. This is a purely technical exercise, please remember that long term projections depend on deeper analysis of fundamental as well as technical factors.
for 2025 and a look back period of 100 years,
expected value: 6383
expected volatility: 18.8%
expected range: 5277 - 7489
probability of remaining within the expected range is above 70% with an analysis window of 10 years.
S&P500 DOWN - trading ideaUS500 is showing potential for a bearish continuation. Recent lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) signal weakening momentum, and a clear downtrend line has formed. The current price of 5789 sits below key resistance, with increasing volume on price declines suggesting further downside pressure.
Entry Zone: Around 5789
Stop Loss: 6045 (above the recent swing high)
Profit Targets:
5748
5695
5650
This idea targets short-term movements within the downtrend. With proper risk management, this could be a favorable opportunity for those aligned with the bearish setup! 📉
S&P 500 Could Have a Short-Term RallyOn 01/02/25 the SPX made a maginal new low from its decline since early December 2024.
The bears could not follow through on the break out.
Hourly RSI and MACD had bullish divergences on the days low.
A multi-day rally may have begun. If so it could provide a great opportunity to short stocks.
Critical Turning Point for the S&P 500: Bullish or Bearish?Happy New Year, everyone! 🎉 I hope you all had an amazing start to 2025. Let’s dive into the S&P 500 chart because it’s showing some critical patterns that could define the market's direction moving forward.
The S&P 500 has now broken below the Rising Channel, confirming a bearish breakdown from the long-term uptrend. This move adds to the bearish pressure initiated by the previously formed Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern.
The breakdown of the Rising Channel, combined with the confirmed H&S pattern, suggests a significant shift in market sentiment. With the price also sitting below the 50 EMA, the bears appear to have the upper hand.
1. Rising Channel Breakdown : After respecting the channel boundaries for months, the price has decisively fallen through the lower boundary, signaling the uptrend is over.
2. H&S Pattern Confirmation : The neckline has been broken, further validating this bearish reversal structure.
3. 50 EMA Resistance : The inability to reclaim the 50 EMA solidifies the bearish momentum.
Targets to Watch
* 5,687.33: The next immediate support level where price could pause or consolidate.
* 5,600.45: A breach of 5,687.33 could send the price toward this stronger support zone.
* 5,119.26 (Channel Projection): If bearish momentum accelerates, the longer-term target aligns with the channel's projected downside.
What’s Next?
With the Rising Channel broken, the market’s bullish structure has collapsed, leaving traders watching key support levels to assess the depth of the pullback. Bulls will need to reclaim the 50 EMA and push the price back into the channel to regain control, but this seems unlikely in the short term.
The market now leans bearish, and the next few sessions could confirm whether this breakdown leads to a larger correction or stabilizes near support.
Let me know your thoughts and how you plan to approach this setup. Wishing you all a successful and profitable trading year ahead! 🚀
#SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #BearishBreakdown #RisingChannel #HeadAndShoulders
S&P500 H&S correction or uptrend?Bearish Case:
S&P 500 seems to form a H&S, if break the neck line, possible correction to 5600 (4.5% correction).
Bullish case:
Since Nov 2023 S&P500 has been in an uptrend parallel channel, in 4h time frame, each time RSI goes below 25, we see a rally upward.
Tomorrow is decisive!
SPX ... S&P 500 Gann Box Technique, Big trouble ahead?Interesting idea...every time it cracks the gray, it runs to the orange .25 Gann retrace and then pulls back 50 or so %
But what if it has failed at the grey line this time...and cant scream higher to 16k like past times...
Well if we apply about 50% down to the gray line...you arrive at 2k on the S&P 500, some 4k down..
Or..OR..maybe you only get to the 7k line which is the retracement of the .25 Gann....thenn...
You then retrace about 50% from that 7k line and hit about 3.6k on the S&P 500
This is called Gann-Box Stacking...You take the ultra low and the screaming high, before a massive correction,
then you stack those boxes until you hit present day (removed vertical bars for clarity purposes)
Neat eh??
So what are your thoughts people...run to 7k...
Or...fall to 3.6k, then 2k, or go back to the .25 of 2000/2009
Just a reprint from chart in case you wanted to copy this for sharing...
Things are only random until you throw enough pooo at it,, then the most hardy piece sticks and you see what was real and what was hanging on by a thread
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1/3/2025🔮
📅 Fri Jan 3
⏰ 10:00am
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 (previous: 48.4)
GAP ABOVE HPZ:
If we gap above here,
its going to bait a lot
of traders by a chop
OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Now that the slight downside
is out of the system. I'm looking
for upside down because everyone
is extremely fearful
GAP BELOW HCZ:
Will cause a mechanical bounce
back to the weekly Weekly HC
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SPX Outlook SPX500:
Economists predict it could reach 7200 this year, signaling a bullish outlook.
While a recession or depression is considered unlikely, if it does occur, bearish targets could drop to 3500–2000
SPX expected value for 2025 is 6863An example on how our tools can be used to make projections: SPX expected value for 2025 is 6863 with an expected range from 5885 to 7841 with a probability of staying within this range of 66.67%. The expected volatility for this year is 16.63%. These projections are based on the last 5 years of data.
US 500 – Major Momentum Stall or Just Taking a Breather?After posting a gain of around 23%, 2024 was undoubtably another strong performance for the US 500 index. However, hopes of that much discussed ‘Santa Rally’ failed to materialise. Undermined by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell on December 18th at the press conference following another 25bps (0.25%) interest rate cut.
His suggestion that further Fed interest rate cuts are likely to be on hold until more progress is made on bringing inflation back to the US central bank’s 2% target, put a dent in the strong bullish sentiment that had seen the US 500 index touch a new all time high at 6101, only days earlier on December 6th.
Now, with the index back trading around 5900 again, the question for traders at the start of 2025 may be, is this a major momentum stall or is the uptrend just taking a breather?
Weekly Mid-Average a Potential Line in the Sand
Recent declines in the US 500 are now approaching a possible key support level within the weekly picture marked by the rising Bollinger mid-average, currently at 5824 (Blue line on chart).
While having seen this line hold and resume price strength on previous occasions is no guarantee it will do so again, it may well be something of a ‘line in the sand’ to watch if tested in upcoming trading sessions.
Price action against this support zone could help us to gauge if the latest weakness in price is just a limited reaction to over-extended upside conditions, or if a downside closing break below this level is seen, if further extended falls may be about to materialise.
As we can see from the chart above, in April, August and September last year, it was the rising mid-average (Blue line on chart) that helped hold price declines and even prompt fresh upside strength to breach previous highs and extend the pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
US 500 - Why We Should Monitor Weekly Close Against 5824 Level
Sometimes, when a closing break below the weekly mid-average develops, we must wait to see if the average turns down, to suggest the potential of a downtrend forming, or as was the case in September, upside price action resumes, to break back and close above the still rising mid-average, pointing to the potential for further price strength.
So, with this in mind, if tested in upcoming sessions, it may be the Bollinger mid-average that can be important again as we move into 2025, and we will be monitoring the 5824 level on a closing basis.
Closes below this support, if followed by the average turning lower, could prove to be a sign of a more extended phase of weakness, although while it holds, the positive upside trending condition could still remain.
Potential Resistance Levels to Watch
While the rising weekly Bollinger mid-average currently suggests the longer term trend is still up, looking at the same measure on the daily chart, offers a slightly different picture.
The negative reaction to the Fed rate announcement on December 18th, saw the US 500 index break and close below its daily Bollinger mid-average, and as the daily chart above shows, this average has now turned lower.
While the daily mid-average (Blue line on chart), currently at 5998, continues to fall and as it did over the Christmas period, resists fresh attempts to move back higher again, this opens up the possibility that a short term daily downtrend may be materialising.
Potential Pivot Points:
In conclusion, it could be the weekly Bollinger mid-average at 5824 that marks a possible support, while the declining daily Bollinger mid-average at 5998 may suggest a potential important resistance level.
It could be worth watching both identified levels on a closing basis at the start of 2025. Confirmed closing breaks of either side, followed by the mid-average changing direction (the weekly average lower, or the daily higher) may lead to a more prolonged phase of price movement, in the direction of the break.
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S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trend OutlookS&P 500 Analysis
The price is currently trading with bullish momentum, reaching 5,969. A breakout above 5,969 is likely to push the price towards 6,022.
On the other hand, if the price remains stable below 5,969, it will fluctuate between 5,969 and 5,935. A break and a 4-hour candle closing below 5,935 will support a bearish trend, targeting 5,893 and 5,863.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5935
Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5905, 5863, 5790
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Stability: Maintained below 5,969
Bullish Trend: Confirmed by a breakout above 5,969
