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SPX500 trade ideas

SPX to dump 30% - 50% for Inflated Expectations in 2026I like to say the narrative follows the price . This was bound to happen after such an overheated year, couple years. Blame whomever you want, in the end its your wallet if you aren't ready to have your expectations met. Best case scenario, the breakout of macro is confirmed after the retest (blue arrows). Worst, more likely case, it smashes down to confirm a double bottom with a strong foundation to form a macro support. The sawtooth can provide opportunities for volatile scalps, but its gonna get gnarly I can already tell.
SP:SPXShort
by D4NKM4CH1N3
Is 5,400 Points the Bottom for the S&P 500? Key Levels You Need The S&P 500 Index has been experiencing a sharp downturn, heavily influenced by broader macroeconomic factors such as President Trump’s tariff policies. This has had a ripple effect across risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market, which has been closely correlated with traditional markets. In this update, we analyze whether 5400 points could serve as a key bottoming level for the S&P 500 and what that means for broader market conditions. Technical Points to Consider: 5400 as a Key Support Zone – The index is approaching a major technical confluence zone, which includes a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, a VWAP SR level from the October 2023 lows, and an open swing low. These factors suggest an oversold bounce may be imminent. Market Structure Breakdown – The S&P 500 has shifted from higher highs and higher lows to now potentially forming a lower low. A relief rally could lead to a lower high before continuation downward. Impact on Crypto Markets – If a short-term bottom forms in equities, we could see a correlated bounce in the cryptocurrency market, offering long trade opportunities in altcoins. The extreme oversold conditions in the market suggest that a relief bounce is highly probable. Markets often react to key technical levels, and the presence of multiple confluence factors at 5400 makes it a critical zone to watch. While a temporary bounce is expected, it is essential to consider whether this move will lead to a sustained recovery or merely a short-lived retracement before further downside. The structure of the bounce, volume inflows, and broader market sentiment will be key factors in determining the next trend. For cryptocurrency traders, the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin means that any shift in equities could impact crypto price action. If the S&P 500 finds support and initiates a bounce, risk-on assets like altcoins may also experience relief rallies. However, these moves must be evaluated carefully—altcoins are often more volatile than equities, and chasing a bounce without confirmation could lead to unnecessary risk exposure. Identifying the right setups in this environment requires patience and a strategic approach. Ultimately, market timing and discipline will be crucial in navigating this potential bottoming process. If 5400 holds as support and a bullish structure begins forming, traders may find strong long opportunities in both traditional markets and crypto. However, if price fails to hold, a continuation lower could present an entirely new set of trading conditions. Waiting for market alignment, confirmed reversals, and volume support will be key before taking decisive action.
SP:SPX
by AzizKhanZamani
BUY SIGNAL into spiral turn 3/10 to 3/13 panic cycle see dec 8thThe Market has fallen right into the cycle the Panic cycle see dec 8th forecast for 2025 . put/call and most every model is set for a min 3 week sharp rally that rally if it is a 3 wave rally then the cycle degree wave 5 of 3 is ended .. BUT I see the decline into the dates and near the call for 9.8 to 11.3 % decline and worst case as stated in the forecast is 16.3 But the cycles is VERY BULLISH from this week On . I am 125 % longs in dec 2026 in the money and at the money calls . best of trades WAVETIMER
SP:SPX
by wavetimer
13
Don't Miss Out We Predicted S&P 500 Drop to 5740 It Happened📉 Don't Miss Out – We Predicted S&P 500 Drop to 5740 , and It Happened! 🔥 In our previous recommendation, we clearly stated that S&P 500 would drop to 5740 , and it happened exactly as predicted, reaching the 61% Fibonacci level! ✅ 🚨 Will You Wait Until You Fall with Losing Stocks? 🚨 The market doesn’t wait, and opportunities don’t last forever! If you’ve been following our recommendations, you’ve avoided the collapsing stocks we warned about. ⚠️ Don’t let the market get ahead of you – Follow our recommendations to stay on the winning side! 🔥💰 #SPX500 #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestmentOpportunities
SP:SPX
by stocksfox
2
S&P INTRADAY reaction to US Inflation figuresUS equity indices reacted positively to the latest US inflation figures released earlier today, as the data pointed to a moderation in price pressures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 2.8% year-over-year in February, down from 3.0% in January. This reading not only marked a decline but also came in below market expectations of 2.9%, signaling that inflationary pressures may be easing. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, following a 0.5% rise recorded in January. Similarly, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-over-year in February, down from 3.3% in the previous month. This print also fell short of analysts' forecasts of 3.2%, further supporting the view of moderating inflation. On a month-to-month basis, the core CPI edged up by 0.2%. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5713 Resistance Level 2: 5770 Resistance Level 3: 5807 Support Level 1: 5523 Support Level 2: 5480 Support Level 3: 5300 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX morning analysisTechnical analysis of SPX. Bearish count/analysis presented, cleaned up to present important points. Parallel channels frame price action since March 2020 low nearly perfectly, with key pivots pointed out. With count presented, ((B)) is 200% of ((A)). End of ((B)) counted with impulse ending with ending diagonal wedge. Impulsive price action broke through pitchfork support, looking to see if support now becomes resistance. If pitchfork median line (red line) cannot be tagged, should be taken as bearish sign, and return to October 2022 price as likely. If that idea plays out, looking for channels to provide support/resistance for price down towards March 2020 low.
TVC:SPXShort
by discobiscuit
Stocks May Be OversoldThe S&P 500 has been falling swiftly, but it may be considered oversold. The first pattern on today’s chart is Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the lower study. RSI slipped below 30 for the first time since October 2023. That could make some traders think it’s due for a potential bounce. Next, the middle study includes our MA Distance custom script. It shows price dropped the furthest below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since October 2022. That may also suggest it’s experienced a healthy pullback. Third is July 5’s last price of 5567, which was the first weekly close in the second half of 2024. It became resistance in early August and support in two subsequent weeks. SPX held that level again yesterday, so it may be reemerging as a meaningful area. If the index manages to stabilize here and rebound, how high might the bounce go? Traders could potentially look to the price zone between January 13's low of 5773 and the March 4 low of 5733. It’s also near the 200-day SMA. Investors with a longer-term view may expect further volatility given the sharpness of the recent drop and the uncertainty caused by tariffs. That may prompt them to eye a deeper low around 5402, where SPX held in early September before breaking out to new highs. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
How to Trade Trend ReversalsThey say, “the trend is your friend”—until it bends at the end. Every strong move eventually runs out of steam, but spotting the turn and trading it effectively is no easy task. Some traders try to anticipate the reversal, positioning ahead of time, while others wait for confirmation, entering once the trend has already shifted. Both methods have their strengths and weaknesses, and the best approach depends on your risk tolerance and trading style. Anticipating the Turn: Catching the Reversal Early This approach focuses on momentum shifts and false breakouts before the price fully confirms a new trend. The goal is to enter before the crowd, capturing a reversal at the best possible price. Key Tools: Momentum Divergence – If price makes a new high or low, but RSI fails to follow, it suggests the trend is weakening. False Breakouts – If price breaks a key level but immediately reverses, it signals a trap set for traders expecting continuation. Benefits: • Better risk-reward – Entering before the confirmation means stops can be tighter, allowing for a larger potential profit. • First-mover advantage – Catching a trend change early means getting in at a great price before the majority of traders react. Drawbacks: • Higher failure rate – Many trends look weak before resuming, leading to premature entries and false starts. • Requires precision – Entry and stop placement must be exact to avoid being caught in noise. Waiting for Confirmation: Trading the Break Rather than trying to predict the turn, this method waits for price to confirm the reversal by breaking key levels or forming a clear new trend structure. Key Tools: Trend Structure Shift – A series of lower highs in an uptrend, or higher lows in a downtrend, signals exhaustion. Break of Key Support/Resistance – Once price decisively moves beyond a critical level, it confirms the trend change. Benefits: • Higher probability trades – Waiting for confirmation reduces the risk of being faked out by temporary pullbacks. • Less stressful – Entering after the break avoids the uncertainty of catching tops and bottoms. Drawbacks: • Worse risk-reward – Entry is later, meaning stops tend to be wider and potential profits smaller. • Missed moves – Sometimes, a reversal happens too quickly, leaving conservative traders behind. Applying Both Methods: Two Live Market Examples 1. EUR/USD – A Potential Trend Reversal in Progress Recently, EUR/USD had been stuck in a long-term downtrend, with lower lows forming consistently. But the latest attempt to break support failed spectacularly. Anticipatory Approach: Traders watching for a false breakout could have entered after price dipped below support and immediately reversed. RSI also showed bullish divergence—momentum was no longer confirming the downtrend. Entry would be placed just above the reclaimed support, with a tight stop below the false breakdown. Momentum-Based Approach: Traders waiting for confirmation would have looked for a strong breakout above the first major resistance. After the false breakdown, price surged above prior swing highs, confirming buyers had taken control. The break of horizontal resistance provided a clearer entry signal, with stops below the breakout level. EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. S&P 500 – The Start of a Breakdown? The S&P 500 had been in a strong uptrend, but multiple failed attempts to break through resistance suggested buyers were losing momentum. Eventually, price broke below key support, triggering a sharp decline. Anticipatory Approach: Traders looking for early signs of weakness could have entered short after noticing a series of failed breakouts. RSI divergence signalled that momentum was waning, and the repeated failures at resistance suggested a sell-off was brewing. The entry would have been placed near resistance, with stops just above the recent highs. Momentum-Based Approach: A more patient trader would have waited for a confirmed break of support. Once the S&P sliced through a major level, a short trade could be initiated on the retest of the broken support, with stops just above the previous swing low. S&P Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Final Thoughts: Choosing the Right Approach Both methods have their advantages. Anticipating reversals can offer an early entry with strong risk-reward potential, but it also comes with a higher chance of false signals. Waiting for confirmation provides greater clarity and reduces the likelihood of premature entries, though it often means entering later in the move. Neither approach is inherently better—it depends on your trading style, risk tolerance, and strategy. The key is consistency: whichever method you use, having a clear plan and following it with discipline is what separates successful traders from those who get caught on the wrong side of a trend change. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
S&P500 Strong Support cluster on the 2-year Channel Up.S&P500 (SPX) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up that has made the market recover from the 2022 Inflation Crisis, taking it to a new All Time High (ATH). The recent 4-week decline however has been an aggressive one and rightly so has sparked heightened fear to investors, especially considering the trade war fundamentals. Technically, the index just broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching the bottom of this long-term Channel Up, a development that in the eyes of short-term traders is disastrous. On the long-term though, this is a very strong Support level as the market seems to be repeating the Secondary Channel Up (blue) of February - October 2023. The end of this was also an aggressive correction which broke below both the 1W MA50 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level temporarily before starting a massive Bullish Leg. Even the 1W RSI sequences among the two fractals are similar, despite the current price action being more aggressive. Interestingly enough, they both declined by at least -10%, so if we see the current week closing in green and by the next starting to recover, it is likely to see a similar Bullish Leg to test the -0.5 Fibonacci extension as the April 01 2024 Top did. That would give us a 6900 long-term Target, which would be a +24.75% rise from the current low, exactly identical with the rise from the April 19 2024 to February 19 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
6
Bearish & Boring? Maybe. Profitable? Definitely.Bearish & Boring? Maybe. Profitable? Definitely. | SPX Market Analysis 12 Mar 2025 You know that feeling when you wake up and wonder if you’re stuck in a time loop? Yeah, me too. For what feels like the hundredth time, I’m reporting that the bear move is grinding lower. The difference? The profits keep stacking up—so I’m not complaining. Yesterday’s rally was supposedly triggered by Canada pausing tariffs, but let’s be real—this market is looking for any excuse to bounce. Yet, the overall trend remains the same: a slow, stair-stepping drop. Based on this drop-pause-drop rhythm, I suspect we’re entering the next pause before another leg down. My bear boots are full, my trade allocations are set, and I’m waiting for two tranches to exit profitably before considering any new plays. Until SPX clears 5850, the bullish setups stay on the shelf. This is the good kind of waiting—the kind where the market moves for me instead of me chasing it. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: If it feels like Groundhog Day, you’re not alone. The bearish grind continues, slowly pushing lower, delivering small but steady wins. Unlike a panic-driven crash, this move is unfolding in slow motion, keeping traders on edge, wondering if a rally is lurking around the corner. 📌 A Market Looking for an Excuse to Bounce Yesterday’s rally attempt was supposedly fueled by news that Canadian tariffs were being paused, but let’s be honest—this market is desperate for any reason to move higher. The reality? The larger bearish structure remains intact. Every bounce so far has been short-lived. The market keeps following a drop-pause-drop pattern. We’re likely entering the next "pause" phase before another move down. 📌 My Trading Approach—Locked, Loaded, and Waiting Right now, my bear boots are full, meaning I’m not adding new positions until my current tranches exit profitably. Two tranches are set to exit with profits by the end of the week. If we push lower or continue sideways, I’ll take my exits and reassess. Until SPX clears 5850, I won’t even think about bullish setups. 📌 What’s Next? The Good Kind of Waiting There’s no need to chase trades or force new entries. I’m simply letting my plan play out. If the market continues its slow-motion decline, I’ll collect my wins, reload selectively, and wait for the next prime setup. For now, I sit back and enjoy the show—because this time, the market is working for me, not against me. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2008, Porsche trapped hedge funds in one of the greatest short squeezes in history, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world—all thanks to a secretive stock manoeuvre. 💡 The Lesson? Markets don’t just move up and down—they can also turn traders inside out. The wrong bet at the wrong time can be devastating… unless, of course, you have a system that keeps you on the right side of the trade. 🚀
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
S&P500 Rebound: Glimpses of Stability in the Midst of a StormBy Ion Jauregui, Analyst ActivTrades The S&P500 index has surprised everyone by rebounding after a historic day of declines. The volatility experienced last Monday, driven by uncertainty over new tariff measures, has begun to subside, giving a glimpse of a possible equilibrium in the US markets. Yesterday was a real hell for investors. Fears were triggered by the confirmation of plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum, with particular stringency for imports from Canada. This announcement, part of a strategy of trade tightening, generated a domino effect that sent the S&P500 sharply lower, highlighting the market's sensitivity to economic policy decisions. Europe's response to the tariffs was swift with a subsequent statement from the European Commission with “swift and proportionate” countermeasures to U.S. imports. However, yesterday's subsequent session saw an unexpected response. Activity on Wall Street showed a moderation in the initial panic, and several traders took the opportunity to buy back assets on attractive technical terms. This rebound not only suggests that the plunge may have been an overreaction, but also reflects the resilience inherent in one of the world's most closely watched markets. The White House, for its part, tried to calm the mood, insisting that the sharp drop was a “one-off” and not representative of the strength of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Trump himself, through his statements, continues to set the tone in the debate on the transition to a new economic paradigm, where the implementation of tariffs is only one of the edges of a broader strategy. Looking ahead, the focus is on how trade measures will evolve and whether market responses will be able to sustain in the face of possible further turbulence. The partial recovery of the S&P500 is certainly an indication that traders are willing to ride out the uncertainty as long as signs of consistent, stability-oriented economic policy materialize. Technical analysis Looking at the trend of the index, the fall since February 21 has been extended. With a very pronounced fall this week of -4.05% being the fall since the beginning of the month of -7.33% and -9.34% since the beginning of the fall. Yesterday's bounces could change the game of bearish dynamics of the index indicating a possible brake to this rampant fall generating the entry of buyers into the market. The strongest triple bell zone is located in the area of 4,953 points, a range that tried to consolidate after the beginning of the fall. The most plausible zone for price recovery in case of a bulls' advance in the market. If we look at a long-term perspective, the stock has bounced off the September 11, 2024 price level and could have closed a bullish gap. But before moving to the third long term bell we have another prior range at the 5,755 area where the current checkpoint is located. The mid-range crosses have not given any kind of trend reversal signal, so it is very likely that this week will see a retest of the 5,548 price. There is no “two without three”. If this price does not hold it is possible that the price could pull back to 5,491.29 points as first resistance and second resistance at 5,378.48 points. RSI indicates a point of slight oversold at 44.30% so this could happen during this week of high volatility. In short, the recent rebound is an encouraging sign in a context of high volatility, although the question remains as to whether this recovery will be sustained or simply a momentary respite in the midst of a still uncertain outlook.In the short term, the first year of the Republican administration looks highly volatile for the markets. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Short
by ActivTrades
1