SPX: tariffs combined with inflationInflation expectations are on the rise again in the US. As markets are closely watching developments with trade tariffs, in combination with increasing inflation, the sentiment ended the week in a red zone. During the week, the S&P 500 was struggling to sustain a bit of positive sentiment, however, Friday's trading session brought back significant sell off of stocks. The week started at 5.780, but it ended at 5.580, losing 1,97% on Friday. In the last six weeks, the index spent five weeks in negative territory.
Tech companies were the ones that dragged the rest of the market to the downside. META and Amazon were down by 4,3%, Apple dropped by 2,66%, Tesla lost 3,51% in value. Trade tariffs are still a cloud which brings high uncertainty to the market. News reported that both Canada and the European Union are considering reciprocal measures as a response to the imposed US tariffs. The US Administration announced last week potential 25% tariffs on all car imports to the US. As long as this kind of trade war is in the open space, it could not be expected that the market would consolidate and stabilize. In this sense, further high volatility might be expected. In the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data for March will be posted, so this would be a day to watch.
SPX500 trade ideas
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,405.74
1st Support: 5,176.07
1st Resistance: 5,769.85
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Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,405.74
1st Support: 5,176.07
1st Resistance: 5,769.85
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
spx slip up Let me start by saying SPX is my baby—this market gave me vision and taught me what I now call Cerberus. It pains me deeply to see such sloppy price engineering lately. These folks have gotten real careless with their price delivery, and that sloppiness is starting to spill into the broader global market.
However, it's clear from the Thursday error that they aren't planning to completely collapse the market just yet—just wanted to instill some pain and signal to everyone it's time to gear up for the long road ahead. Here's what's about to go down, so pay close attention:
Price will sweep below the low of 3.10.25, trigger a profit-booking event, and restore some hope in the market since it'll mark the second leg of the three-drive pattern currently forming. Now, let me flex real quick: SPX WILL HIT THE 4950 AREA BEFORE MAY 2026—mark my words.
Now, back to tradable events:
Mark 5680 as your sell level.
Price will accumulate around the 5480-5460 range, and the real end of this bounce comes at 5350.
Once these trades manifest, your buy-side target is 5790.
Again, don't be the fool who tries to swing-trade buy ideas before these key levels get hit. You've been warned.
Update about my previous warning about a crash of the SPX500📉 SPX500 Major Correction: Scenario 1 or 2?
In my previous analysis, I explained a scenario that could mimic the 2022 crash (Scenario 1):
🔗
However, the price action dropped much faster than in 2022, accelerating the correction.
Now, on the daily timeframe, we already have a bullish MACD crossover, signaling a potential bullish trend for several days:
🔗
Could This Invalidate the Bearish Trend?
✅ Yes, absolutely.
In June 2023 (Scenario 2), a similar situation occurred:
A bearish MACD reset was interrupted mid-course by a violent dump
This triggered a strong rebound, breaking through resistance levels
There are now strong signs that Scenario 2 might play out again.
What Does This Mean for Crypto & TradFi?
📈 If this bullish reversal holds, it could sync Crypto & TradFi, with both gaining bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe, peaking around May 2025.
Two Possible Outcomes:
1️⃣ Scenario 1 – The reversal collapses, and the correction continues 📉
2️⃣ Scenario 2 – The reversal holds, leading to a rally 📈
Let’s monitor this closely to see which scenario unfolds.
🔍 DYOR!
#SPX500 #StockMarket #Crypto #Trading #BullishReversal #BearishTrend #MACD #MarketAnalysis #Investing
new indicator using options data ++ some project i'm working on.
# Analysis of the S&P 500 Trading Dashboard Data
I'll explain the key data elements used in this technical analysis dashboard and how they contribute to the trading conclusions.
## Key Price Levels and Their Significance
The dashboard identifies several critical price levels for the S&P 500:
- **Max Pain ($5,785)**: This represents the price level where options writers would experience the least financial pain (i.e., where the fewest options contracts would be in-the-money). The distance from the current price ($5,557.41) to max pain suggests significant upside resistance.
- **Resistance Levels ($5,700 and $5,650)**: These represent areas where selling pressure is expected to increase. The $5,700 level is backed by data showing 13,877 call option contracts at this strike, creating a "wall" of resistance.
- **Short Entry Zone ($5,595)**: This level was previously support that has been broken, making it a high-probability entry zone for short positions following the principle that broken support becomes resistance.
- **Battle Zone ($5,550)**: An area with heavy options activity on both sides (puts and calls), indicating potential price volatility and uncertainty.
- **Critical Support ($5,500)**: A psychologically important round number that also represents a significant technical level.
- **Target Levels ($5,450 and $5,400)**: Projected price targets for short positions based on previous support levels and technical measurements.
## Options Market Data
Two key options metrics are used to inform the analysis:
1. **Put/Call Ratio (1.80)**: This is significantly elevated above the typical range of 0.7-1.2, indicating:
- Unusually bearish sentiment
- Hedging activity by institutional investors
- Potential for a contrarian bounce if it exceeds 2.0
The high ratio suggests market participants are purchasing put options for downside protection at an elevated rate compared to call options, confirming bearish positioning.
2. **Gamma Exposure (-$17.37 Billion)**: This negative value indicates:
- Market makers are net short gamma
- They must sell more futures as prices fall to maintain delta hedges
- This creates a self-reinforcing downward spiral effect
Gamma exposure represents the rate of change in delta (directional exposure) for options market makers. The large negative value suggests that downward price movement will accelerate as market makers must sell more futures to remain hedged, creating a "cascade effect" amplifying price movement.
## Technical Indicators and Their Interpretation
The dashboard incorporates several technical analysis components:
### Price Action & Moving Averages
The analysis indicates price is trading below all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), a classic sign of bearish momentum across timeframes. When price trades below all these moving averages in sequence, it creates what traders call "bearish alignment," a strong confirmation of downtrend.
### Momentum Indicators
- **RSI (Below 30)**: Indicates oversold conditions but in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist. The analysis correctly warns against fighting the trend despite the oversold reading.
- **MACD (Below signal line)**: Confirms negative momentum is in place, suggesting continued downward pressure.
- **ACWF (Negative)**: A specialized momentum indicator showing continued bearish pressure.
### Volume Analysis
- **On-Balance Volume (Declining)**: Indicates more volume on down days than up days, suggesting distribution (selling pressure).
- **Volume on Down Bars (Increasing)**: Higher volume on declining price moves is a classic sign of seller control and distribution.
### Chart Patterns
- **Head & Shoulders Pattern (Completed)**: A reversal pattern that typically projects further downside after completion.
- **Elliott Wave Count (Wave 3)**: Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest wave in Elliott Wave theory, suggesting significant continuation of the downtrend.
## Volatility Assessment
The ATR (Average True Range) values of 9.18-98.75 indicate elevated and increasing volatility, which informs the risk management recommendations:
- Reduce position size
- Use wider stop losses
- Expect larger price swings
This is prudent risk management in high-volatility environments, as normal position sizing could lead to premature stopouts due to wider price swings.
## Trading Recommendation Logic
The primary strategy (65% probability) of continued downside is based on the confluence of:
1. Bearish technical indicators across multiple timeframes
2. Negative gamma exposure creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral
3. Broken support levels and completed bearish chart patterns
4. Wave 3 Elliott Wave structure which typically has the strongest momentum
The strategy recommends:
- Entry at $5,590-5,600 (former support, now resistance)
- Stop loss above $5,625 (limiting risk to approximately 30 points)
- Targets at key support levels: $5,500, $5,450, and $5,400
- Reduced position size due to high volatility
The alternative strategy (35% probability) acknowledges the potential for a reversal at the $5,500 psychological support level, but only with confirmation signals like volume decline and stabilization patterns.
## Educational Elements
The dashboard incorporates several educational elements:
1. **Elliott Wave Theory**: The identification of Wave 3 of a 5-wave downtrend sequence suggests the current move is likely the strongest part of the larger bearish structure.
2. **Options Market Mechanics**: Explanation of how negative gamma exposure creates a self-reinforcing price action effect as market makers hedge their positions.
3. **Technical Analysis Patterns**: Clear labeling of patterns like the Head & Shoulders and broken uptrend line, along with their implications.
4. **Risk Management**: Specific recommendations for position sizing and stop placement in a high-volatility environment.
This analysis combines price action, options market data, technical indicators, volume analysis, and chart patterns to create a comprehensive trading approach with specific entry, exit, and risk management parameters.
US500 (S&P 500 ) INDEX TRADE IDEA 1 APRIL 2025Based on technical analysis, the US500 (S&P 500) has broken below its long-term ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. The bearish momentum is evident as the price has closed below the lower trendline, and a pullback to the 5,558 - 5,794 supply zone could provide a shorting opportunity. This area aligns with previous structural resistance, making it a key level for institutional sellers. If price action confirms rejection within this zone, a sell setup targeting 5,279, 5,157, and ultimately 4,803 could be viable. The trade remains invalid if price breaks above 5,860, as this would indicate a shift in market sentiment.
From a fundamental perspective, growing concerns over US-China tariff tensions could pressure corporate earnings and drive further downside. Additionally, economic slowdown indicators, including weakening consumer spending and rising corporate debt, are weighing on investor sentiment. The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report in April 2025 will be a key event to watch; a strong labor market report may keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish stance, leading to further stock market declines, while a weak report could reinforce recession fears. Given these factors, a short position remains favorable as long as the market respects the supply zone resistance. However, traders should remain cautious of unexpected shifts in monetary policy or geopolitical developments that could impact overall market direction.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 11th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. We are in the second phase, which appears bearish by all indications. This is a significant bear market completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in my previous posts. My preliminary timeline projections for the base cycle completion were mentioned in the previous post.
⚠️ The extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury – turned the market downward after a small bullish correction. This was anticipated last week. The market lacked the strength even to reach the resistance level at 5850. A short position has been opened. The next extreme forecast is April 7.
S&P 500 Technical Breakdown – Bearish Momentum Building?Looking at this SPX Daily Chart, we’re seeing some clear signs of weakness in the market.
🔹 Breakdown from the Rising Channel – After months of uptrend, SPX has broken below its previous rising channel, signaling potential downside ahead.
🔹 Failed Recovery Attempt – The recent bounce formed a bear flag (highlighted in brown), but today’s sharp drop indicates that the relief rally has been rejected.
🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels in Play –
The 0.382 Fib retracement was acting as support, but price has now slipped below it.
Next key level: The 0.5 Fib (around 5,550) and the 0.618 Fib (near 5,438) could act as crucial support zones.
A deeper retracement to 4,982 (0.786 Fib) isn't out of the question if selling pressure accelerates.
🔹 Moving Averages & Volume –
The price is now under the 200-day moving average (blue line), which is typically a bearish signal if confirmed.
Volume has been increasing on red days, hinting at stronger selling conviction.
🔹 Support & Resistance Zones –
Resistance: ~5,822 (recent bounce level) and ~6,097 (previous high)
Support: ~5,402 and ~4,982 if selling intensifies.
🚨 Final Thoughts: The technical structure is turning bearish, and if the S&P 500 doesn’t reclaim key levels soon, further downside could be on the horizon. Bulls need to step in fast to avoid a deeper correction.
S&P entering rough path in 2025 It seems S&P is going through a soft bounce back after selloff towards 10W MA around 58-5900 levels. This could be the strong rejection leading to summer lows around 52-5300 range .
If Macro is promising could resume bull run by providing good entry otherwise a recovery towards 5600 which eventually sees 4800 or 2021 ATH making a long range for 4-5 years providing 2026 to reach towards 5800 level by end of December 2026 and giving a new ATH only in 2027 .
SPX500 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
SPX500 has been in a strong downtrend, and the price has already broken the 5,599.30 support level, confirming further bearish momentum. The next key support to watch is 5,506.40 (2025 lowest point).
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 5,599.30 (now turned resistance), 5,679.90
📉 Support: 5,506.40 – If broken, the sell-off could accelerate further.
🔹 Market Structure:
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Since 5,599.30 has already been broken, the price is likely to continue down to 5,506.40. A break below this level could push the market into new 2025 lows.
🚀 Bullish scenario: If the market pulls back above 5,599.30 and reclaims it as support, a temporary bounce to 5,679.90 could occur.
📌 Risk Management:
-Wait for price action confirmation before entering new positions.
-Monitor for potential retests of broken levels.
5600 Really needs to hold...If this 5600 level breaks, I expect the decline to continue until may with support around 5400, 5200, and 5000 with 5200 being most likely.
The market was hoping for consistent messaging from the Fed, which it did not get. The data shows that inflation is accelerating in the face of job cuts which makes their job very difficult. The are not helping with their rhetoric that the data is 'transitory'. The market is not enjoying their 'vibe' driven analysis.
Volatility is bid for April and May, giving bears ammo for another leg lower.
vixcentral.com
The measured move and several demand zones sit around 5200.
My last warning To Donald Trump and Americansif you Attack Iran's infrastructure, America enters a shitty situation that will last for not years but for decades. you can fix the problem by supporting the Iran's King Reza Pahlavi and the people and the mullahs will be overthrown easily but you are Unknowingly doing it in a very wrong way, if you do it Stockholm syndrome will happen.
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Price has ping on the channel edges. I hope it becomes just a simple correction but Americans ego is is in line with technicals.