This doesn't look good for SPX500USDHi traders,
The price action of SPX500USD last week went exactly as what I've said in my outlook.
I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what would be the move after that.
But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair.
Price went corrective up, rejected from the Weekly FVG higher and dropped!
So next week we could see more downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SPX500 trade ideas
S&P500 IndexIf the midline of the linear regression channel is broken, the price will continue to decline until it reaches the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation.
In the less likely event that this support line is also broken, we have the support line of the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations.
(Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
S&P 500 Update - 5200 on the horizonFrom an Elliott perspective the market appears to be in a 4th Wave correction. The a and b waves have completed and now the c wave is playing out.
If we look to a 1.618 extension of the a wave , the target projection is 5200.
The bias is to the downside and the bearish sentiment continues to 5200 and possibly an overshoot to lower levels.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index gapped higher, passing our completed Inner Index Rally of 5712 and setting a Mean Resistance of 5768. This target was accompanied by considerable reversal, ultimately causing a downward movement. On the final trading day of the week, the Index underwent a pronounced decline, resulting in a substantial drop that surpassed the critical target of Mean Support set at 5603. The Index is positioned to retest the completed Outer Index Dip level of 5520. An extended decline is feasible, with the possibility of targeting the subsequent Outer Index Dip at 5403 before resuming an upward rally from either of these Outer Index Dip levels.
Monthly Chart SPX Cautious Liquidity PositioningThis month, the S&P 500 (SPX) has shown signs of a cautious liquidity shift as investors take a more measured approach to risk. While the index remains near all-time highs, underlying market activity suggests hesitation rather than aggressive buying. I currently have no active positions.
Investors are rotating out of high-growth stocks and into more defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. This shift signals concerns about potential volatility, possibly due to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, economic data, or geopolitical risks. At the same time, large tech stocks—key drivers of the market rally—are seeing some profit-taking, further indicating a more defensive stance.
In the options market, there has been increased demand for downside protection. A rising put-to-call ratio and higher implied volatility suggest that traders are preparing for potential pullbacks rather than chasing new highs. Retail speculation has also slowed, with lower volumes in leveraged ETFs and call options.
Another sign of caution is the increase in money market fund inflows, as investors park cash in short-term instruments offering attractive yields. The U.S. Treasury’s ongoing debt issuance is also pulling liquidity away from equities.
While the Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts later this year, inflation remains a concern, keeping policymakers on hold for now. Market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed further out, tightening financial conditions and limiting excess liquidity that previously fueled stock market gains.
Overall, SPX liquidity trends this month suggest the market is at a turning point. While the index remains strong, the cautious stance in underlying market activity raises questions about whether stocks can continue higher without a fresh catalyst.
Most Depressing Chart EverThis chart is what I would consider the worse case scenario. Sideways action until we hit the Great Depression trend line. The two previous lost years are a little over 16 years long from start to break out. This shows an example of we were to complete that same pattern. We are long overdue for a correction and this would bring us back to reality.
SPX Intraday WedgieSPX threw a wedgie intraday, expected more of a bounce when it broke out, I guess there's no bounce when the algos are shut off.
Also, futures broke support after hours. (ES1! is SPX futures, I plot it all the time.)
I don't recommend going long until after the tariff announcements. This market is super sketchy now.
S&P500 Huge retest of former Channel Down.S&P500 / US500 took a big hit today following the higher than expected PCE, causing a price rejection on the 4hour MA50.
So far however the drop stopped exactly at the top of the former Channel Down of February-March.
With the 4hour RSI on the same level as March 10th, if this level holds, it will be a huge retest buy signal and will start a new bullish wave.
Based on this, we'd expect the 1day MA50 to be targeted at 5,850.
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S&P to find buyers at current market price?US500 - Intraday
Closed the day little net changed.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Immediate signals are hard to interpret.
Bespoke resistance is located at 5853.
Bespoke support is located at 5536.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
We look to Buy at 5609 (stop at 5572)
Our profit targets will be 5719 and 5853
Resistance: 5719 / 5737 / 5853
Support: 5616 / 5607 / 5536
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Market Neutral: Nasdaq, S&P500, Nikkei225, Hang SengThe equity indices has fallen to our target and we are seeing 5-wave completions. So I think it is a good time to reduce your shorts and move from a short to a more neutral stance. The current price is also a good support for the indices.
Remember that there is a weekend risk here also.
Good luck!
US500US500 Price Action Analysis and Trade Setups (March 28, 2025)
Price Action Summary:
Weekly Chart: Long-term uptrend intact, but recent rejection near 6,200 signals a medium-term correction.
Daily Chart: Price is consolidating near 5,600 after a sharp drop from highs. Bearish momentum persists.
4H Chart: Lower highs and lower lows confirm short-term bearish bias. Resistance at 5,750 is holding.
1H Chart: Intraday range between 5,550 and 5,750. Price struggling to break higher.
Trade of the Day (Day Trading Setup)
Short Setup:
Entry: 5,700 after rejection at resistance
Stop Loss: 5,770
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,620
TP2: 5,550
Reason: Short-term bearish structure with resistance holding at 5,750.
Swing Trading Setup
Short Setup:
Entry: Below 5,550 after daily close confirmation
Stop Loss: 5,650
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,300
TP2: 5,100
US500 Long Setup – 15M | NYC Reversal from Demand Bias: Bullish Trade Setup Overview:
After a deep selloff and subsequent accumulation pattern, US500 printed a clean bullish reaction from the lower demand zone during the NY session, signaling a potential continuation to the upside.
Key Confluences:
🔹 Accumulation + Manipulation Phase Complete
The chart shows classic Wyckoff accumulation followed by manipulation below short-term lows, leading into an aggressive NY open rally—suggesting institutional involvement.
🔹 Entry From Demand + FVG Reclaim
Price tagged the 5676.5 level, which aligns with the edge of a refined 15M FVG and an H1 demand zone. Strong rejection and follow-through confirms buyer strength.
🔹 Clean Break of Supply Structure
Price has pierced through a previous short-term supply zone, turning it into potential support. This is a signal that bulls are reclaiming control.
Bias: Bullish
Entry: 5676.5
Stop Loss: 5660.4
Take Profits:
TP1: 5693.6
TP2: 5720.0
TP3: 5781.6
Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait...Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait... | SPX Analysis 28 Mar 2025
Imagine the market dressed like Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest—slack-jawed, glassy-eyed, and strapped into a straightjacket made of indecision. That’s been the vibe all week. SPX continues to shuffle back and forth around 5700 like it's lost its meds and forgot where it was going. But if you’ve been following the plan, none of this should be surprising.
We mapped it out on Monday, discussed it live in our Fast Forward mentorship call, and here we are watching it all play out with popcorn in hand. Today’s action may seem like “not much ado about anything,” but if you know what to look for… there’s gold in this grind.
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The end of March has the feel of a market that’s had one too many – not enough to fall over, but just enough to slur its way through price action.
All week we’ve been dancing around the 5700 level – and for good reason. It’s acting as a triple threat:
The GEX Flip Point
The prior range high
And now, the Bollinger Bands have closed in to confirm this as a possible launch (or rejection) zone.
Add in the emergence of a pinch point, and what we’ve got is a market that’s coiling like a spring… but refusing to actually bounce.
📈 Bullish Swing Activated:
During Monday’s Fast Forward group session, we mapped out a key level to watch for pulse bars. Lo and behold, the market obliged. I entered a bullish swing trade after seeing those bars fire right at the expected spot. No surprises, no panic – just execution.
🐻 Bear Swing Trigger Set:
If the market does decide to do a dramatic nosedive, I’ve marked 5675 as my bear/hedge trigger – just under Thursday’s lows. Until then, it’s a game of “wait, watch, and get ready to stack the next trade.”
💤 Nothing Much? Still Profitable:
Look, I get it – this week’s been slower than a BBC period drama. But just because things move at glacial speed doesn’t mean there’s nothing to do. As always, it’s about planning the trade, then trading the plan – not reacting to every twitch like a caffeinated squirrel.
And if you’re wondering how the market feels…
Let’s just say the “moves” this week have been scratchier than usual, so I’ll be looking for a special cream over the weekend.
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The first “stock ticker” was powered by telegraph wires and clock springs. It was invented in 1867 by Edward Calahan… who was just 22 years old at the time.
Before computers, before real-time data feeds, and way before Robinhood traders turned market moves into meme fodder – we had the ticker tape. Edward Calahan, a young telegraph operator, created the first stock ticker machine using the same tech that powered telegrams. It printed stock prices on a long ribbon of paper, allowing traders to see “live” quotes for the first time.
This primitive marvel revolutionised Wall Street – traders no longer had to wait hours (or days) for price updates. And now here we are, trading from our phones while sipping lattes and watching pulse bars ping in real-time. Technology, eh?
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Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. Ready to stop scratching your head and start stacking profits?
If you want to trade with clarity – not confusion – then it’s time to get serious about structure.
🔥 Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's
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SPX Targets 5400 - 5150 - 4750Hi Traders,
We so far we are following the pattern of 2022... If so we should be beginning the next down leg and looks like with Trump announcing auto Tarrifs today I expect it begins now instead of waiting till April 2, Liberation day, as Trump calls it. He is the default EW indicator which appears to capture the levels I was looking at using other TA. This won't be a sudden drop but I expect some if not all these levels to be hit once all is said and done. The market needs to become a lot cheaper for people to want to invest into a Tariff type environment. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out with strong Tariffs on April 2 that we end up going into a recession by summer. The only way to get lower rates like trump wants is to tank the market which I think he is ok with to do. Lets see how this plays out.
S&P 500 Struggling Ahead of Key Economic ReportsThe S&P 500 is showing signs of weakness as it approaches a critical juncture ahead of tomorrow’s economic reports. After a sharp V-shaped recovery, the index is now facing resistance and struggling to maintain upward momentum. If key support levels fail to hold, we could see further downside in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
5,700 - 5,720: A significant resistance zone where recent rallies have stalled. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum.
5,650 - 5,670: A minor support area that previously acted as a pivot. Losing this level could increase selling pressure.
5,520 - 5,504: A major support zone that must hold to prevent further downside. If broken, it could trigger a larger sell-off.
5,350 - 5,400: A potential next area of support if the index continues to slide. This level aligns with previous consolidation zones.
4,790 - 4,800: A worst-case scenario target if market sentiment deteriorates significantly.
Technical Breakdown:
The current price action suggests a potential reversal if support levels do not hold. The index has failed to reclaim key resistance and is now at risk of breaking down further. Volume has increased during recent selling, indicating stronger downside pressure.
The next move will likely be dictated by tomorrow’s reports. If economic data comes in weaker than expected, it could fuel concerns of a slowdown, leading to further selling. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data may provide temporary relief, but resistance levels still need to be reclaimed for the uptrend to resume.
Market Sentiment and Strategy:
A break below 5,504 could trigger a wave of selling, making downside targets more likely.
If support holds and we see a strong bounce, it could offer a short-term buying opportunity.
Given increased volatility, traders should be cautious and monitor key levels closely.
With economic data on the horizon, the S&P 500 is at a critical decision point. The next 24-48 hours will determine whether the recent recovery holds or if further downside is ahead.