SPX 500 Fractal #SPX500 | #SPX | #US500
Fractal for SPX - US 500 Index, do you see a massive CRASH coming or i am wrong ?
SPX500 trade ideas
SPY, Major Warning has been signalled for the stock market. The stock markets have been rattled by a concerning development that historically has been a precursor to increased volatility and economic uncertainty - the uninversion of the yield curve.
In December, long-term interest rates fell below short-term rates, reversing the inversion that had been in place. This yield curve uninversion is often viewed as a potential warning sign of an impending recession, as it has preceded the last seven recessions in the United States.
Looking back at past data, the last time the yield curve was uninverted in this manner was in 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a major market downturn. Prior to that, it uninverted in 2006-2007, shortly before the Great Recession hit in 2008-2009.
While the yield curve uninversion does not guarantee an imminent recession, it has proven to be a reliable leading indicator of increased market volatility and economic slowdown.
Trade safe,
Trader Leo
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period.
It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally.
Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate.
So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies.
Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios.
But will 2024 follow the trend?
The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor .
This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia .
What drives the Santa rally?
Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices
Will there be a Santa rally this year?
Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas.
Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not.
The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year.
The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year.
Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all.
Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
Critical Levels in S&P 500 Index this weekNavigating the S&P 500: What to Watch This Christmas Week
If you look at the S&P 500's technical chart, you'll notice something intriguing: Friday's rebound wasn't just any rebound — it came with a surge in volume. The Index is flirting with its 50-day Moving Average, a key indicator with investors on edge. As long as macroeconomic data doesn’t throw any curveballs, there's a promising outlook for a festive rally in the stock market this Christmas week. My eyes are on the 6,000 mark for the SPX as a pivotal point. If the momentum continues, we might even see it touch 6,100, which could be the ceiling for this bullish run.
SPX Ascending Wedge BreakSPX had a clean break and retest of its ascending wedge last week. It was a strong move back up off of 5850, but it rejected on the retest. Range is now from 5,850 to ATH.
Looking to see if bulls can reclaim that trendline or not. For now I'd be bullish above 5,850 and bearish below. Downside target would be the election gap fill and/or the previous ATH around 5,669. We're still near ATH so that will continue to be the upside target. Long confirmation would come if it reclaimed the wedge + the descending trendline above.
Very Bearish Elliott Wave Pattern The S&P 500 (SPX) since its all-time high appears to be forming a series of "one's" and "two's " to the downside.
This could be the prelude to a very large decline in early 2025.
Short-term the SPX could rally into the low 6,000 area soon. If so his could be an important peak.
SPX Hours needed to buy 1 shareHow expensive is the market? The average wage earner has to work 167 hours to buy 1 share of the S&P 500.
A new historic all-time high!
The markets are crazy expensive!
The inflation no one shows you or talks about is driven by massive deficits and cheap money.
Extreme Caution is in order!
S&P 500 Bullish Outlook Pending Sustained Break Above 1M PPHello,
VANTAGE:SP500 has closed above the 1-month pivot point, signaling potential for further upside, even though sellers are currently exerting strong pressure. What we need now is a sustained position above the 1-month pivot point, and if that occurs, we could be in for a significant move upward!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
[Education] The Brutal Truth About Trading DisciplineHere's what nobody tells you about trading discipline. It's not about motivation or willpower. You can't just "try harder" to be disciplined. If it were that simple, everyone would be profitable by now.
Think about these scenarios. You see a setup forming but it's not quite perfect. You take the trade anyway because "close enough is good enough". Your stop loss is about to get hit, but you move it because you "feel" the market will reverse. You're down for the week and decide to risk 5% instead of your usual 1% to "recover losses".
Sound familiar? These aren't strategy problems. These are discipline problems.
Why Discipline Is Harder Than It Looks
When you're backtesting, everything seems easy. You can fast forward. Drawdowns can be recovered easily. You don't feel the emotional impact of losing trades. You're not watching your real money disappear.
But in live trading, every loss feels personal. It sucks when you miss an opportunity that could have given you a homerun trade. When a winning trade turns into a loss, you feel like pulling out your hair.
I remember one trade where I had a perfect setup. Everything aligned with my trading plan. I got greedy. I didn’t close my trade at 2R profit as planned. I held onto the trade. The market reversed. My winning trade turned into a loss.
That one moment of indiscipline cost me $500. But the real cost was much higher. It damaged my confidence and made me doubt my strategy.
The Hidden Cost of Lack of Discipline
Let's talk numbers. A strategy with 40% win rate and 1:2 RRR is profitable. However, if you cut winners early, that same strategy becomes a losing one. Instead of closing at 1:2 RRR, you closed at 1:1 RRR. With an average of 1:1 RRR, you need at least a 50% win rate to be breakeven. Things will get worse if you increase risk. If you increase your risk and lose, that one bad trade can wipe out a month of profits.
The Framework That Changed Everything
After blowing multiple accounts, I developed this simple framework that transformed my trading:
Pre-Trade Checklist
Write down entry, stop loss, and target BEFORE entering
Calculate position size based on 1% risk
Take a screenshot of your analysis
Compare setup with your trading plan
During Trade Management
No looking at charts if you're set-and-forget
No moving stop losses unless to breakeven
No adding to losing positions
No checking P&L constantly
Post-Trade Review
Journal every trade, win or lose
Score yourself on discipline, not profits
Review weekly to identify patterns
Celebrate when you follow rules, regardless of outcome
The Psychology Behind Discipline
Here’s something interesting. When I trade funded accounts, my discipline improves dramatically. Why? Because it's not my money. I treat it like a business. It’s capital I would lose if I am not disciplined with my trades.
This taught me something crucial. To be disciplined, you need to trade like a business, not a gambler. You have to focus on the process, and not the outcomes. You won’t be able to predict the outcome anyway. Accept that losses are part of trading. They are your business expenses. Once you’ve accepted that losing is inevitable, you will be able to keep your emotions out of trading.
Taking Action: Your Next Steps
Here’s what you should do next after learning from my framework. First, start small. Use a demo account to practice following rules. If you want to trade live, then trade minimal size while you build your discipline in trading. Only scale up when you can follow your plan for 20 trades straight. If you break your rules for 1 trade, restart the whole process. Next, create accountability for yourself. Share your trades with a mentor or trading buddy. Post your analysis online before entering trades. Review your trades at the end of the week. See if you have broken any of your trading rules this week. Lastly, build better habits. Set up your trading environment for success by removing distractions during trading hours. Keep your phones and social media away from you. Create a pre-trade ritual. That can be meditating, or simply just close your eyes. Remember to also reward yourself for following rules, not for profits.
The Transformation You Can Expect
When you are disciplined, your equity curve becomes smoother. You will not see a big drop in your equity curve due to excessive loss taken on 1 trade. Your stress levels decrease and confidence increases. You aren’t afraid of being wrong and being FOMO’d into entering earlier. As such, your results become consistent.
Remember, every successful trader you admire has gone through this same journey. The difference between them and the 95% who fail isn't their strategy. It's their discipline.
I'm now managing multiple six-figure funded accounts, not because I found a better strategy, but because I finally learned to follow my rules.
The question isn't whether you know what to do. It's whether you can do what you know you should do.
$SPX - idea from the historyI've just faced an unpublished idea about SP:SPX . Will publish it in the mid on the road. )
Does not constitute a recommendation.
#furoreggs #investing #stocks #shares #idea #forecast #trading #analysis
If you want to discuss, please subscribe and challenge this point of view.
The S&P500 is struggling to reach its previous peak
The S&P500 is approaching the 5914-5892 support range on the one-hour timeframe after a price decline. This area acts as strong support due to previous reactions and a crossover with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The price reaction to this support area indicates buyers’ willingness to increase their strength. The bullish candles that will form after hitting this level indicate a possible price reversal.
If this level holds, a move towards the targets of 6033 and then 6126 is possible in the short term. However, a break of the support level of 5892 could lead to a further decline and a drop to lower ranges. Traders should pay attention to the price reaction to these ranges as well as trading volume.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading, the S&P 500 index exhibited considerable volatility after reaching our critical support level of Mean Support 5870. Subsequently, it demonstrated a robust upward recovery. This development is anticipated to facilitate the impending phase of the renewed interim rebound, with the objective of retesting the Key Resistance level at 6090, thereby paving the way for continuing the bullish trend. However, it is crucial to recognize that a retest of the Mean Support 5870 remains a great possibility.
S&P500 5 month Channel Up bottomed. Bullish reversal started.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up since the August 5th bottom.
Wednesday's Fed fueled correction crossed under the 1day MA50 but stabilized yesterday and today found support over the 1day MA100 and rebounded.
This low is very close to the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1day MA100 was the level that supported the early September pull back.
The 1day RSI is also reversing, and the 3 times it posted a similar pattern inside the Channel Up, it was a bottom.
Buy and target 6200 (+7.10% from the bottom).
Previous chart:
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Market Breadth showing Weakness Market Breadth showing Weakness. Drops back below key level.
Yield curve starting to steepen, breaking the longest inverted period in history.
Looking for the next red monthly inside candle early next year to start getting bearish.
Only two rate cuts anticipated next year instead of four.
SPX500 Rebounds: Market Optimism or Fed Reassessment in Focus"The SPX500 is bouncing back from the FOMC sell-off, signaling market optimism or reassessment of the Fed's stance. Key drivers include rate expectations, upcoming economic data, and sector performance. Watch for sustained momentum or signs of caution.
SPXUSD Daily Has A Inverse Cup & Handle Hey fellow traders and followers! I have to point out a possible inverse cup & handle and targets if she plays out in SPX Oanda.
Breaking point on daily is 5881.6 after which would trigger bears to take over the show and bring us down to the measured move of 5751.3 area. If that area breaks after being tested with a fail we falllll ---
-----
--5643.3------------
Market sits in no man's land I like to call it being bulls and bears on both sides of this rope in a tug of war. Be very very cautious at this time as charts in bigger TF's are starting to spell( FALL )
Don't get hurt on this one as this fall will give you more than just a scrape on the knees, more like a broken leg or worse.
Trade with caution and best of luck in all your trades. Cheers!
Market SnapshotQuestions I've been asking myself lately:
Is my Bank safe?
If the market crashes will they survive?
While they fight for survival is my money at risk being with them?
Do I have enough money saved so that if my job decides my services are no longer needed my family is not immediately or permanently at risk?
What's the safest vehicle to put my money in a highly inflationary environment?
What's the safest vehicle in a deflationary environment?
What if the price of oil doubles over the next 5 years?
You really need to buy more gold and silver (not a question just talking to myself)
How will I take advantage of the housing crash that's looming?
Why haven't you opened a family trust yet and put all of your assets under the care of?
SPX //S&P500 is looking a bit shaky...lines go back to Dot.comMore charts of momentum of the old X (twitter-verse)...due to limited ideas sharing here...
But analysis on just the monthly timeframe is shown...have more on NVIDIA too on X
Not redirecting traffic, just limited here to share.
Trade or short according to your Doc's recommendations of stress controllability.
Top Trading Ideas of 2025: AI, Bitcoin, Stock Picks and PoliticsIf you’re extremely online and watching the blog of every investment bank, financial institution and markets-focused media outlet, you’ve probably seen a few of those already — year-ahead previews are just too enticing to pass on.
With this Idea, we’re aiming to lay out what our traders care about the most — the big trading and investment trends that will drive a huge chunk of the buying and selling. While only a forecast, this type of outlook could help you to better prepare your trades and set your gaze upon the assets and categories that will slosh around billions upon billions next year.
So let’s do it.
🤖 AI on the Horizon
A thematic priority and one of the top investment trends in 2025 will undoubtedly be Nvidia artificial intelligence. AI is touted as the game changer of the tech industry and all big tech players are racing to seize as big a market share as they can.
To get a feel for what may be coming, let’s look at what happened this year. According to technology-focused analyst firm Omdia, Microsoft MSFT was the biggest buyer of Nvidia’s NVDA flagship AI chip Hopper. (One of these babies will run you about $30,000.) Estimates point that the tech giant bought 485,000 Hopper chips (~ $15 billion ). It’s understandable because Microsoft is OpenAI’s biggest investor with about $13 billion jammed into the ChatGPT parent.
Next in line for the Hopper chip in 2024 is Meta META with 224,000 units. Other big spenders for the AI-enabling tech include Tesla TSLA , Amazon AMZN and Google GOOGL .
Next year, that upside trend is expected to pick up the pace with Hopper’s successor Blackwell — a next-generation AI chip , which has seen insane demand , according to Nvidia’s main man Jensen Huang.
With all that AI buzz, investors will be closely following Nvidia’s every step for signs of whether the chip juggernaut could carry on the miraculous growth.
₿ Bitcoin is the New Orange
What’s the new year without some orange-colored cryptocurrency? Bitcoin BTCUSD is now a $2 trillion beast ready to tear down every permabear’s gloom-and-doom forecast. So what can you expect to see in 2025?
With Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the cryptocurrency industry is poised for deregulation (think, crypto companies finally getting bank accounts). The President-elect has set out to assemble a team of A-list venture capitalists , entrepreneurs and, frankly, billionaires.
And with the Congress largely made up of crypto bros, digital-asset companies hope regulators will wave away a whole string of suits against them — Coinbase, Kraken and Binance have been carrying a target on their backs for years.
Stripping down weighty rules will help companies expand services and establish bigger footprints, potentially powering Bitcoin’s valuation.
Other than having banks take deposits or lend to crypto companies, something else can propel Bitcoin. The US government may soon have its very own Bitcoin strategic reserve . The vehicle will aim to collect a total of 1 million Bitcoin over a five-year time horizon. The goal: keep stacking and never sell.
🎯 The Game of Whack-a-Mole
Here’s why stocks won’t be skyrocketing in 2025: the Federal Reserve just said it’s nearly done with lowering interest rates. After Fed boss Jay Powell announced another trim to borrowing costs Wednesday, he struck a cautious note saying that the US central bank is now projecting two rate cuts, down from a previous forecast of four.
In other words, stock picking is back on the menu. It’s easy to feel smart — even a genius — when your trade is in profit together with the broader market. But true craftsmanship is best seen amid churning waters when markets are volatile, tough and choppy.
No doubt there will be winners even if equities are moving sideways or looking down. But it’s hard to imagine that US stocks could pull off a third straight 20%+ annual gain (the S&P 500 SPX was up more than 24% in 2023 and is up 24% on the year so far).
Also, the broad-based index is at a record high . So is the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite IXIC . Among the big factors that could contribute to a negative year for stocks are rate hikes, recession or stubborn inflation.
All in all, stock pickers, this might just be your year!
🏛️ Power Plays and Market Sways
President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda is pretty clear by now and he isn’t even officially sworn in. If it could be summed up in a sentence it would probably be “America, heck yeah.”
Trump’s second four-year term is expected to usher in a new era of growth through an America-first approach, sweeping deregulation and tax cuts. All that mix of reflation policies threatens to flare up price pressures again. Add to that some hefty tariffs on US imports and you get a powerful concoction of “wait and see if this bursts in your face.”
Inflation expectations have already crept up and the recent consumer price index readout for November does sound some alarm bells. If things are heating up, Trump’s moves may bring them to a boil — tariffs are inflationary and immigration control is inflationary.
And so if the election win introduced animal spirits into the markets, the presidency starting next year will get a chance to make good on all the promises given by the President-elect (and expose some potential weaknesses).
📣 With that, we conclude the walk through what we think makes the most sense to grab headlines next year. What’s your take — do you think there are opportunities to be seized in 2025? Share your thoughts and let’s spin up a discussion!
SP500 / Bearish Momentum is under control...S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price dropped another 1.7% and still has bearish momentum. As long as it trades below 5863, it will touch 5803 and 5781.
so the consolidation will be between 5863 and 5781 till breaking, it is possible to do a correction till 5863 and then will drop.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5835
Resistance Levels: 5863, 5894, 5932
Support Levels: 5803, 5781, 5734
Trend Outlook:
Downward by stability below 5863
Bullish correction toward 5863
previous idea:
S&P should trade towards 5700 now. Intraday Update: The SPX breakdown should target an equal leg move towards the 5700 level, especially given that the bounce was a shallow 38% retrace this week at 5948.
Downward pressure on S&P 500 Index intensified past daysYesterday's sell-off damaged the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. While we initially saw a bounce back at the opening, it didn't hold. This makes the 5925 level a critical point to watch as we head toward the end of the year.
For those keeping an eye on the charts, a trendline has been intact since the low in October 2023. Although it was breached during the August downturn, we managed to rally back into the bullish channel that's been forming since the fourth quarter of 2023. This channel offers support around the 5800 mark, and I anticipate this level will hold as we close out the year. Should we dip further, the following support levels to watch are 5690 and 5525.
While I don't foresee us dropping to these lower levels before year-end, it's essential to acknowledge the potential downside risk. The market sentiment shifted following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, giving sellers the upper hand for the first time since the summer.
Rate Cut Disappoints: Stocks and Gold Experience Sharp Declines◉ Abstract
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%, marking its third cut in a row. However, the Fed also said it might not cut rates much more in the future because it expects the economy to grow stronger and inflation to continue. This cautious message worried investors, causing a sharp drop in the stock market.
The S&P 500 fell about 2.96%, its biggest one-day loss since August. Gold prices also dropped by around 1.6%. The declines in both stocks and gold show that investors are feeling uncertain about the economy and are rethinking their investments based on the Fed's outlook.
Continue reading the full article:
◉ Introduction
On December 18, 2024, both the S&P 500 and gold experienced significant declines, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and market reactions to economic forecasts.
◉ Federal Reserve's Decision
● The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%. This is typically a positive move for equities and commodities like gold.
● However, the Fed signalled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, expecting stronger economic growth and persistent inflation.
● This cautious outlook raised concerns about the possibility of limited future rate cuts, which spooked investors.
◉ Market Reactions
1. Stock Market Decline
● The S&P 500 fell by approximately 2.96%, marking its largest single-day percentage drop since August 5th.
● The market's reaction reflected a realization that previous optimistic expectations about aggressive rate cuts were misplaced.
2. Gold's Decline
● Gold prices dropped sharply, with an intraday decline of about 1.6%.
● Gold, while a safe-haven asset, is less desirable in a rising rate environment due to increased opportunity costs.
● With the Fed's indication of fewer future rate cuts, investors shifted away from gold.
◉ Overall Market Sentiment
The simultaneous decline in both equities and gold can be attributed to a broader market sentiment that reacted negatively to the Fed's cautious outlook on inflation and growth prospects. This created a risk-off environment where investors were uncertain about both stock valuations and commodity holdings.
