SPX500 in Focus – Breakout Needed Above 6346SPX500 – Technical Overview
The price is currently showing bearish momentum as long as it remains below 6341 and 6323, with a downside target at 6283.
🔻 As long as the price trades below 6341, the bearish bias remains intact.
🔼 For the trend to shift bullish, we need a confirmed 1H close above 6346, which could open the path toward 6365 and higher.
🔹 Resistance: 6341, 6365, 6389
🔹 Support: 6298, 6283, 6247
SPX500 trade ideas
SPX500 at Key Pivot – Bearish Below 6365, Bullish AboveSPX500 – Market Overview
U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday after President Donald Trump’s temporary pick for a Federal Reserve governor boosted expectations for a more dovish central bank board.
Technical Outlook
Stability below 6365, we expect a move down toward 6341.
A 1H close below 6321 would likely extend the bearish trend toward 6301.
A 1H close above 6365 could trigger a push toward 6389.
A confirmed break above 6389 would shift the bias to bullish, targeting 6425 and 6453.
Pivot Line: 6365
Resistance: 6389 – 6425 – 6453
Support: 6341 – 6321 – 6301
JP Morgan warns the S&P is due a retracement!🚨 Alert 🚨
JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are the latest to warn that the S&P is due for a correction.
I'm short with a small position size, as the price could move higher yet... Judging by experience, it's near impossible to predict tops. It's best to close long positions or enter smaller-sized short positions with large stops.
VANTAGE:SP500 PEPPERSTONE:US500 ICMARKETS:US500 OANDA:SPX500USD
S&P 500 extends rally despite macro concernsThe 5% Apple rally aside, it is all about rate cut bets vs. strong earnings. So far, the latter has helped to keep US markets supported near all-time highs. But if macro concerns increase further, investors' perception about future earnings growth will weaken. And with that, we could see some cracks in expensive stocks.
Looking at the hourly chart of the SPX500, the US benchmark was testing a potential resistance zone in the shaded region between 6345 to 6367, an area which was previously support. Above this zone, 6392 is the next level of potential resistance and then the all-time high of 6436 comes into focus next.
earlier, the index bounced after a failed breakdown below the trend line shown on the chart. Another potential test of the trendline could see the index break lower. Short-term support is seen around 6319 then 6277.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SPX500 Dips Ahead of NFP as Tariff Risks RiseSPX: S&P 500 Dips to Close July — Still Positive for the Month Amid Tariff Tensions & Fed Uncertainty
The S&P 500 retreated in the final session of July, weighed down by renewed tariff concerns and lingering uncertainty around the Fed’s next move. Despite the late pullback, the index remains positive for the month overall.
Looking ahead, non-farm payrolls (NFP) and U.S. jobs data are expected to have a strong impact on market direction. In addition, August 1st marks a key date for potential tariff developments, which could trigger further volatility.
Technical Outlook – SPX500
The index has dropped approximately 2.5% since yesterday and maintains a bearish bias as long as it trades below 6283. If the price continues to slide, the next downside target is 6246, with further support at 6223.
However, if the price manages to close above 6289 on the 1H timeframe, it could trigger a bullish recovery toward 6320 and 6341.
Pivot Line: 6283
Support Levels: 6246 • 6223
Resistance Levels: 6320 • 6341
S&P 500 Futures Hold Ground After Tariffs Take EffectS&P 500 Futures Rise After New Tariffs Kick In
President Trump's sweeping tariffs officially took effect just after midnight, escalating trade tensions with dozens of countries. While negotiations are ongoing behind the scenes to secure exemptions and reduce tariff rates, market reactions are already underway.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 Futures continue to show bullish momentum as long as price trades above 6289, with the potential to retest the All-Time High (ATH).
To confirm a move toward 6453, price must close above 6437 on the 1H chart.
🔻 However, if the price stabilizes below 6389, a correction toward 6365 becomes more likely.
Key Levels:
🔹 Resistance: 6424 – 6453
🔹 Support: 6365 – 6341
US500 Short Setup: Bearish Momentum Toward 6205Currently holding a short position on the US500 from the 6358 level, based on Smart Money Concepts. Price has tapped into a premium zone within a higher time frame supply area, showing clear signs of distribution. Liquidity has been swept above recent highs, and a shift in market structure confirms bearish intent. I’m targeting the 6205 level, expecting a rapid downside move in the very short term as smart money drives price toward discounted levels.
US500: Rebound Setup After Sharp Pullback – Key Support HoldingUS500 has experienced a strong corrective move after an extended bullish run but is now showing signs of stabilizing near a key support area. This zone aligns with both technical retracement levels and the market's reaction to fundamental shifts—particularly the dovish repricing of the Fed following weak US jobs data.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Pattern: After a strong uptrend, price faced a steep correction, forming a potential short-term reversal setup.
Current Level: 6,235, holding above the 6,217 support zone.
Key Support Levels:
6,217 (immediate support; key defense zone for bulls).
6,171 (38.2% retracement, secondary support if deeper pullback occurs).
Resistance Levels:
6,272 (23.6% retracement and initial resistance).
6,360 (upper resistance zone and retest of recent breakdown).
6,429/6,436 (recent high and target if bullish momentum resumes).
Projection: A rebound from current levels could push US500 back toward 6,360–6,430 if support holds.
Fundamental Analysis
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish as macro drivers favor a recovery from pullback.
Key Fundamentals:
Fed Policy: Weak US jobs (+73K) and downward revisions have solidified rate cut expectations (~75% probability in September), boosting equity sentiment.
Inflation: Market awaits US CPI; softer data would further support equities.
Tariffs: While Trump’s tariffs create a medium-term risk for earnings, immediate Fed easing bets outweigh these concerns.
Risk Sentiment: Global risk remains supported by lower yields and optimism about Fed easing.
Risks:
Hot US CPI could reverse cut expectations, pressuring equities.
Geopolitical risks or tariff escalation could trigger renewed selling.
Key Events:
US CPI and PPI.
Fed speeches and rate expectations.
Earnings reports from key US companies.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
US500 is a leader, driving global risk sentiment and influencing risk-sensitive assets like AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and JPY crosses.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
US500 is neutral-to-bullish, stabilizing at key support (6,217) after a sharp correction. Fed cut expectations and risk-on sentiment support the upside scenario, targeting 6,360–6,430 if US CPI aligns with softer inflation. However, a hot CPI print could invalidate this rebound and trigger another leg lower.
Big CorrectionThe S&P index.
The chart shows the potential end of the final rally from the 2009 low.
Currently, with this rally from the recent 4,800 low, we are still in a correction period that will end in late October (highs and lows are irrelevant), & We have a date coming up in August so let's see what happens there.
After this period, we will have a rally combined with uncertainty and unjustified speculative movements (bubble) that could take us to the final peak, which I expect in 2026.
This remains a possibility, but don't base your trades on it. However, caution is often good.
SPX500 - what's next?Further to my previous idea on SPX.
SPX respected the Resistance at FR 161.8 at 6400.
Price went down and reverted form SMA200 (4H)
Now price has completed the Perfect Gartley Pattern and reached point D.
If (against fundamentals) price reverts down from there and breaks down through SMA50 (4h), I will consider it as Bearish Validation and I will expect correction movement, which cen go down to ca 6000.
Just my humble opinion
Warning: SPX500 May Have Peaked—Here’s What the Charts SayThe S&P 500 (SPX500) may have reached its peak. In this video, I reveal the technical evidence pointing to a potential reversal—including monthly bearish divergence, daily and weekly reversal candles, and confirmation from key indicators.
This isn’t just noise—these signals align across timeframes, suggesting a shift in momentum that could lead to significant downside. I’ll walk you through the charts, explain the implications for traders and investors, and highlight critical support levels to watch.
Thank you for watching and have a great trading week. Cheers!!
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 8, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading activity of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a predominantly bullish trend and is poised to retest the completed Outer Index Rally target of 6420, as outlined in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. The primary objective now is to target subsequent levels, specifically the next Outer Index Rally target of 6620 and beyond.
It is crucial to recognize that the current price movement may initiate a substantial pullback from the present price action, either before or following the attainment of the Outer Index Rally peak at 6420.
US Stocks on Watch as Momentum ShiftsAfter a resilient summer run, US equities are now facing a new wave of pressure. Friday’s slide was more than just a reaction to headlines, it may be the first sign of a deeper shift in sentiment.
Jobs Data Disappoints as Tariff Tensions Rise
Friday’s US jobs report was a jolt. Just 73,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in July, well short of the 110,000 expected. But the real gut punch came from the revisions. June’s figure was slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000 and May’s total was lowered by another 125,000. Taken together, that is over a quarter of a million fewer jobs than previously reported. The softening labour market has now pushed the probability of a September rate cut to 66%, as traders start to price in a more cautious Fed response.
If that was not enough, President Trump added fresh fuel to the fire by announcing a new round of tariff hikes. Imports from Canada will now face a 35% levy, up from 25%, while goods routed through third countries to avoid duties will be hit with a 40% charge. These measures come at a time when the global economy is already under strain, and investors wasted no time in pulling back. Tech and financials bore the brunt, with Amazon and JPMorgan among the hardest hit.
Short Term Momentum Breaks Down
Last week’s price action marked a clear change in tone. The S&P 500 attempted to break to fresh highs on Thursday but was met with a wave of selling on increased volume, forming a bearish engulfing candle. That move was followed by a sharp decline on Friday after the jobs data landed. This two-day drop, coming on elevated volume, stands out as a clean reversal in short term momentum and is most visible on the hourly chart.
That kind of shift raises an important question about timeframes. If you're a short-term trader focused on hourly candles and below, you will likely be watching for bearish continuation patterns. That could mean looking for brief pauses in the selling, flags or consolidations, before another leg lower.
Longer term traders will be reading the chart differently. While short term momentum has clearly turned, the longer-term structure is still intact. The market is now pulling back into a key zone of former resistance from earlier in the year. This cluster of highs, once broken, now acts as support, and just so happens to line up with the 50-day moving average. For those taking a wider lens, this is the kind of area where trend followers could look to reload.
US500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
US500 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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Rob the Rally SPX500: Enter Before Resistance Catches You🦹♂️💎 “SPX500 Vault Breach – Layered Robbery in Progress!” 💼📈
(Thief Trader's Multi-Limit Entry Bullish Blueprint – No Mercy, Just Money)
📍Asset: SPX500 / US500
🎯Plan: Bullish Heist
🧠Style: Layered Limit Orders | Thief Strategy Entry | Zero Mercy Execution
📈Target: 6600.00
🛑Stop Loss: 6200.00
💣Entry: Any level — thieves adapt, not wait!
🌍 Welcome to the Global Robbery Room, Traders!
It’s your boy Thief Trader, back in the vault with another plan to crack the SPX500 like a safe on Wall Street. This one’s for the bold bulls who like to rob with precision, not permission. 🎯💰
💼 The Setup – High Stakes, High Floors
SPX500 is lining up for a classic breakout breach. This isn’t just technical — it’s tactical warfare. Market noise? Ignore it. We operate on strategy and steel nerves. 🧠🔫
🔥 Entry Protocol – Layer Up or Miss Out
🧱 Multiple limit orders across price zones — like planting C4 charges on every door.
🎯 Enter wherever price dips — don’t wait for permission from retail traders.
🎯 No fixed entry — this is Thief Layering: get in where you fit in.
🚪 Escape Plan – Stop Loss Strategy
📍 SL: 6200.00
Why? That’s where the guards start showing up. If price drops below, we vanish.
💡 Be flexible — smart robbers don’t get caught, they regroup.
💎 Target Loot – The Golden Zone
📍 Primary TP: 6600.00
Once we breach the 6500+ resistance, it's a moonwalk. Lock gains or trail with confidence.
📢 Warning for Scalpers & Swing Thieves Alike:
Only play Long-side. Don’t try to rob both ends — that’s suicide.
Big wallet? Scale heavy. Small bag? Layer light but tight.
Always use trailing stops — never trust the market with your escape bag. 🎒💸
📊 Thief Intel – Why We’re Bullish
✅ Index rotation favors large-cap strength
✅ Macro sentiment + institutional bias points UP
✅ No bearish COT signals in sight
✅ Fed tone & economic backdrop: neutral to supportive
This isn’t hopium. It’s strategy.
🚨 NEWS FLASH – Stay Stealthy!
Do NOT enter during economic bombs 💣 (NFP, CPI, Fed minutes, etc.)
Market noise kills precision. We only move in silence and with SLs trailing tight.
💬 Smash that BOOST 💖 if you’re riding with the Thief Army.
Share this plan, spread the word, and let’s rob the markets the smart way.
📢 Tag your crew, stack your layers, and let’s hit 6600 like pros.
📌Disclaimer: Not financial advice — this is a market operation plan for educational use. Trade at your own risk. Smart thieves plan exits before entries. 💼📉📈
🦹♂️ Thief Trader out.
💸 Rob smart. Rob clean. Rob global.
Dot Com Crash CorrelationThe following is a fractal of the lead up to the Dot Com crash, and the aftermath. It correlates extremely well with the current landscape. The TLDR is that if history repeats and we break the trendline, we'll form a blow off top in 2026 and crash spectacularly in 2027 (I'm guessing around May, a common dump month). If everyone is calling for the crash now, it means it's not over yet.
It's time to face the music. AI isn't profitable, it's an excuse to fire workers with high salaries. When there is no one left to fire and productivity/quality drops the answer will be clear: A program that is wrong 20% of the time is completely useless. The errors are a feature, not a bug, the AI can not work without hallucinating and hallucinating causes errors. Look it up if you don't believe me
Fundamentals:
-Rate cuts will keep this alive long enough to form a blow off top
-Extreme uncertainty from tariffs to manufacturing can account for that mid term drop
-AI Companies holding up the market make 0 net profit and have no realistic plans to make ROI
-The vast majority of AI companies have not made ROI
-Generative AI costs more to run than it makes. By their own very flawed estimate, OpenAI will take over 10 years to break even. In related news, snapchat just made ROI and they were founded in 2011, their stock is down 90%.