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SPX500 trade ideas

US500- A buy setup coming upHello, A nice correction happening on this pair US500. The S&P 500 Index, also known as the Standard & Poor’s 500 or the US500, is an American stock market index that tracks the performance of the top 500 companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market or the New York Stock Exchange. It is a free-floating index covering US firms with the largest market capitalization and book value, representing approximately 80 per cent of the total value of the country’s equity market. I expect a smaller correction on the US500 lower timeframe before a continuation to the upside. Look for entries on lower timeframes with a target at the top. Stop loss below the bottom. Zero crossover on the MACD to be used as confirmation as well. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Good luck.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by thesharkke
SPX: break of long term trend-lineThe game of nerves could be one of descriptions of developments on the US equity markets during the previous week. It was a heavy week due to a significant drop in the value of the S&P 500 but also other US equity indexes. The index declined about 1% during the previous week, and 1,4% since the beginning of February. Friday brought back significant buyers, where the index managed to end the week at the level of 5.954. The lowest weekly level was at 5.840. Tech companies were trying to hold, however, the majority ended February in a negative territory. Tesla is one of the most hit companies, with a weekly loss of around 16%. Analysts are noting that this represents the highest weekly loss of TSLA since December 2022. Other large companies also had significant drop, where Nvidia lost around 10%, while Palantir was down by around 19%, after recently reaching the historically highest level. On the other hand, companies within the financial sector performed in a positive manner, rising 1,3% for the week. When looking at the daily chart of S&P 500, the major support line was clearly breached. This line connects historical lows from October 2023, August 2024 and January 2025. It has been clearly breached on Thursday, however, Friday trading session brought the index back toward this line, but this time from the down side. Whether Friday's positive sentiment will continue is to be seen on Monday. For the moment the US equity market is under strong influence of geopolitical topics and potential trade tariffs. In addition, it should be considered that NFP data will be published in a week ahead, which might influence some higher volatility.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 7th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks), 2nd phase. The February 24 pivot forecast attempted to slow down the bearish momentum from the triple top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, but its energy lasted only through Tuesday and Wednesday. The market reversed on Friday from the strong 5850 level, formed in November last year at the October 14 and November 18 extreme forecasts. Based on cycle timing and the chart, the situation resembles the completion of the 1st phase of a bearish base cycle. 👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the now triple-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. Those who didn’t hold, I hope you opened a short position from the third top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 3. ⚠️ The retrograde Venus period begins, which I wrote about in early December. The start of retrograde Venus typically brings a market correction, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility from March 17. A great period for short-term trading. Retrograde Venus usually has a one-week lag, which would place it around March 10. ⚠️ This base cycle is likely to be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I predicted this in early January. NASDAQ has already broken below the base cycle opening level. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts. These long cycles will complete in the current base cycle. However, I do not expect a correction to exceed 20-25%, as a major crash is unlikely before summer this year or spring next year.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
Up for SPX500USDHi traders, Wow! Last week the price action of SPX500USD went exactly to the target as predicted in my outlook. On Monday it dropped and after a correction up it took the liquidity under the previous lows and filled the 4H FVG. I've updated the wave count. Now next week we could see a corrective upmove to the higher 4H FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish and after that a change in orderflow to bullish to trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
3
SPX500 Bullish Retracement or Short Continuation? 1. Top-Down Bias 1. Weekly (Long-Term): • Structural Trend: Bullish (higher highs/higher lows) since mid-2022. • Momentum: Cooling (Weekly MACD negative, RSI slipping from overbought). • Conclusion: Still in an uptrend overall, but increasingly vulnerable to corrective pullbacks. 2. Daily (Intermediate-Term): • Trend: Corrective/short-term bearish tilt (price below 10 & 50-Day SMAs). • Support: Key rising trendline near 5,830–5,850; 200-Day SMA around 5,737. • Conclusion: Intact broader uptrend, but near-term momentum is down. Bulls must reclaim ~6,000–6,100 to regain full control. 3. 4-Hour (Short-Term): • Trend: Bearish (lower highs/lower lows, price below major 4H SMAs & Ichimoku Cloud). • Bounce: Price is rebounding off ~5,830. Overhead resistance near 5,950–6,000. • Conclusion: Still bearish unless price closes decisively above ~6,000. 4. 2-Hour (Intraday): • Trend: Dominantly down, but intraday MACD and RSI have turned bullish. • Resistance: 5,940–5,970 (Fib confluence) and ~5,990–6,000 (Ichimoku Cloud base). • Conclusion: Short-term bounce is underway, but the structure remains cautious below 6,000. Overall Bias: • Long-Term: Bullish. • Short-Term: Bearish/Corrective. • Potential for a relief rally if price breaks above ~5,970–6,000. Otherwise, deeper corrections could target 5,830–5,850 or below. 2. Key Levels & Confluences • Major Resistance Zones: • 6,000–6,100: Overhead supply on Daily & 4H, plus 10 & 50-Day SMAs, Ichimoku cloud underside. • 5,970–6,000: 2H/4H Fib confluence and descending trend line. • Major Support Zones: • 5,830–5,850: Short-term bullish order blocks, rising daily trendline, and 2H/4H support. • 5,737: 200-Day SMA, key if the above zone fails. • 5,600–5,400 (Weekly OB) and 5,634 (50-Week SMA): Deeper support if a more significant correction unfolds. • Indicator Confluences: • Weekly Ichimoku → Price well above the cloud, but momentum fading. • Daily Ichimoku → Price near/below the cloud (~5,990–6,000). • MA Clusters → 10 & 50-Day near 6,000; 100-Day ~5,960; 200-Day ~5,737. • Fibs → 5,830–5,970 region offers multiple retracement overlaps on lower timeframes. 3. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation / Recovery Narrative: Despite recent short-term weakness, the longer-term uptrend is still intact. A rebound could take hold if price holds above critical support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims the Daily/4H resistances near 6,000. Indicators on lower timeframes (2H MACD & RSI) hint at a near-term bounce. 3.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Look for intraday bullish reversal candles (e.g., 2H bullish engulfing) near 5,840–5,860 support—before a confirmed 4H close above resistance. • This could be triggered if RSI on 2H recrosses above 50 (it already has) and price bounces off a retest of 5,850. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Tight stops just below 5,830 (recent swing low). • Accept the risk of whipsaw if the market tests that area again. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Potential for a strong R:R if the bounce holds; you enter near the bottom of the range. • Cons: High chance of a false breakout or further drawdown if short-term momentum fails. 3.2 Moderate Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Wait for partial confirmation such as a 4H close above ~5,950–5,970 (descending trend line/Fib zone). • Alternatively, a bullish MACD crossover on the 4H chart or price reclaiming the 4H Ichimoku conversion line (~5,950–5,970). • Stop-Loss Placement: • Below the newly formed higher low (e.g., if price pulls back to 5,880–5,900, place stops slightly beneath). • Gives moderate breathing room compared to the ultra-tight approach. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Lower risk of immediate fakeouts. • Cons: May miss the absolute bottom if price reverses sharply without much consolidation. 3.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Require strong confirmation: a Daily close above ~6,000 (10 & 50-Day SMAs + Ichimoku Cloud) to ensure the short-term trend has flipped bullish. • Prefer RSI (Daily) back above 50 and MACD turning positive on the Daily timeframe. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Wider stop below the 200-Day SMA (~5,737) or below 5,830 pivot if you want a slightly tighter but still “safer” cushion. • Aims to weather typical intraday volatility. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Much higher probability trade aligned with a proven trend resumption. • Cons: Enters at a higher price; your initial R:R might be smaller. 3.4 Bullish Targets & Management • Target 1 (T1): ~6,100 (major overhead supply, near the upper end of daily cloud/resistance). • Target 2 (T2): ~6,200–6,250 (next potential swing high if momentum truly shifts). • Partial Profit / Trailing: • Consider taking partial profits at T1 (~6,100) and trailing stop to break-even. • If price pushes above 6,100, let a portion ride toward 6,200+. • Invalidation: • A Daily close below ~5,830 (or a 4H close well beneath that pivot) undermines the bullish thesis. • Bearish signals on Daily MACD (staying negative) also reduce bullish odds. 4. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction Narrative: Recent breaks below key Daily MAs and a confirmed 4H/2H downtrend indicate the market may extend its pullback. The bounce to ~5,950–6,000 could fail, triggering a new leg lower toward 5,830 or even the 200-Day SMA (~5,737). 4.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Look to short on a minor retest/failure at intraday resistance (e.g., 2H pivot near 5,960–5,970). • Could also short an immediate break below 5,850 if that level cracks intraday. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Tight stop just above the local swing high (e.g., if shorting near 5,970, stop ~5,995–6,000). • This captures a potential quick continuation lower but risks getting stopped out on whipsaws. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Larger reward if the market breaks down quickly from near-resistance. • Cons: Elevated risk of fake breakdown or sudden bullish intraday reversal. 4.2 Moderate Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Wait for a 4H candle close below ~5,850 (the short-term support / OB zone) or for RSI (4H) to slip back under 50 from its bounce. • Confirm negative MACD cross or downward slope on the 4H chart. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Place stops slightly above the retest zone (5,870–5,880) or the most recent swing high. • Allows for typical 4H volatility around S/R lines. 4.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Require a Daily close below 5,830 (rising trendline break) and a retest that fails to reclaim that line. • Confirm daily MACD remains negative and RSI stays below 50. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above the nearest significant daily pivot or 200-Day SMA if you’re aiming for a multi-day to multi-week short. • A wide stop to accommodate more volatile corrections. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: High probability of a sustained down-move once that daily trendline is lost. • Cons: The initial break might be fast; you could miss the “best” short entry. 4.4 Bearish Targets & Management • Target 1 (T1): ~5,737 (200-Day SMA) if the immediate support at 5,830 fails. • Target 2 (T2): ~5,600–5,400 (major weekly OB & 50-Week SMA ~5,634). • Partial Profit / Trailing: • Consider locking in partial gains near T1 (200-Day) and trailing stops to break-even. • If momentum accelerates, hold a runner down toward 5,600 or lower. • Invalidation: • 4H or Daily close back above ~6,000 would undercut the bearish premise, as it signals a reclaim of critical MAs and Ichimoku territory. • A bullish MACD crossover on Daily also weakens the short thesis. 5. Risk Management & Position Sizing 1. Volatility (ATR) Awareness: • Weekly ATR ~166; 4H ATR ~44. Elevated intraday volatility means you may need slightly wider stops or smaller position sizes. • For short-term trades (4H/2H), consider using a fraction of your usual size to account for bigger swings. 2. R:R Ratios: • Target at least 1:2 or better. • Scale your position so the max loss is within your tolerance (1–2% of your account per trade). 3. Timeframe Alignment: • Larger positions if Daily & Weekly confirm a direction. • If 4H/2H contradict the higher timeframes, trade smaller or wait for alignment. 4. Partial Profit Strategies: • At T1, take partial off (e.g., 50%) and move stop to entry. • Let the rest ride to T2 if momentum follows through. 6. Timing & Confirmation 1. Candle Close vs. Intraday: • For more reliable signals, wait for 4H or Daily closes at critical S/R (above 6,000 for bullish or below 5,830 for bearish). • Aggressive traders may jump in on intraday wicks or 2H signals but must accept higher whipsaw risk. 2. Market Sessions: • Key breakouts often occur during London or New York opens when liquidity spikes. • If trading overnight or in low-liquidity sessions, be mindful of sudden volatility pockets. 7. Extra Notes & Contradictions 1. Mixed Signals Across Timeframes: • Weekly bullish vs. 4H/2H bearish. This can cause choppy price action. Intraday shorts may still work in a higher timeframe uptrend as a temporary pullback trade. 2. Event & News Catalysts: • Unexpected fundamental events (economic data releases, central bank announcements) can override technical setups. 3. Ranging vs. Trending: • If price stalls between 5,850 and 5,950 for several sessions, we may be in a short-term range. Look to fade extremes until a breakout clarifies direction. 8. Final Summary • Top-Down Bias: • Weekly remains bullish overall but losing momentum. • Daily is short-term bearish, yet still above the 200-Day SMA. • 4H/2H are in a downtrend, but a bounce is in progress. • Key Levels & Confluences: • Support: 5,830–5,850; 5,737 (200-Day); deeper ~5,600–5,400. • Resistance: 5,970–6,000 (short-term), then 6,000–6,100 (major daily overhead). • Scenarios: • Bullish if price holds support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims ~6,000. • Aggressive: Buy near 5,840–5,860 on 2H signals. • Moderate: Wait for 4H close above ~5,950–5,970. • Conservative: Require Daily close above ~6,000 and a bullish MACD on Daily. • Bearish if price fails near 5,950–6,000 or breaks 5,830. • Aggressive: Short rejections around 5,960–5,970 or immediate break of 5,850. • Moderate: Wait for 4H close below 5,850. • Conservative: Require Daily close below 5,830 and retest fail. • Risk Management: • Use ATR to size positions, keep R:R ≥ 1:2, scale out at T1, etc. • Edge Cases / Fundamentals: • Stay alert for macro news or high-impact data that could abruptly change the technical landscape. Bottom Line: We have a long-term bullish market undergoing a short-term correction. A push above ~5,970–6,000 would reassert upside momentum; failure at this zone and a drop under 5,830 could extend the sell-off toward the 200-Day SMA or deeper weekly supports. Select the risk profile (Aggressive, Moderate, or Conservative) that best fits your trading style and capital preservation goals, and always align position sizing with your maximum risk tolerance.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by EliteMarketAnalysis
1
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 did not succeed in retesting the Mean Resistance level of 6082. Instead, the index experienced a notable decline, reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and narrowly approaching the Key Support level of 5827. Following this downturn, a significant rebound occurred, resulting in the establishment of a new Mean Support level at 5860. The index is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5967. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current level and successfully surpass the critical Mean Resistance of 5967, it may continue to rise toward the Mean Resistance level of 6032, potentially reaching the Key Resistance level of 6143. Conversely, if the index declines from its present position, it may create a retest pullback to revisit the Mean Support level of 5860 before resuming further upward momentum.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P Retest of IMPORTANT support, The week ahead 03rd March '25 The S&P 500 (US500) index maintains a bullish bias within the broader long-term uptrend. However, recent price action suggests a period of consolidation following the retest of the all-time high on February 19, 2025. The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 5918 level acting as a key support zone. Bullish Scenario: The 5918 level serves as a newly established support, aligning with the consolidation range and prior resistance. A corrective pullback towards this level, followed by a bullish bounce, could confirm continued upside momentum. Upside targets include: 6000 (50-day moving average) 6055 (20-day moving average) 6100 over the longer term Bearish Scenario: A confirmed loss of 5918 support with a daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook. This could trigger a deeper retracement, exposing the following downside levels: 5854 (next key support) 5800, with a potential extension to 5777 if selling pressure accelerates Market Outlook: The 5918 level remains pivotal—holding above this support sustains the bullish bias, while a decisive break below it signals potential downside continuation. Traders should closely monitor price action and volume around this key level to assess the market’s next move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P 500 - Short - Term Elliott Wave Count - 02/28/25An Elliott – Impulse wave down from the S&P 500 (SPX) all-time high appears to be complete. If so, this could be the first wave of a larger developing bear trend. Evidence from the 15 – minute MACD and RSI support this theory. Both had bullish divergences at the 02/28/25 intraday bottom. This is a typical action after a fifth wave termination. There’s a good chance for SPX to rally in the next one or two trading days.
SP:SPXShort
by markrivest
6