SPX500 trade ideas
How to Trade Trend ReversalsThey say, “the trend is your friend”—until it bends at the end. Every strong move eventually runs out of steam, but spotting the turn and trading it effectively is no easy task. Some traders try to anticipate the reversal, positioning ahead of time, while others wait for confirmation, entering once the trend has already shifted. Both methods have their strengths and weaknesses, and the best approach depends on your risk tolerance and trading style.
Anticipating the Turn: Catching the Reversal Early
This approach focuses on momentum shifts and false breakouts before the price fully confirms a new trend. The goal is to enter before the crowd, capturing a reversal at the best possible price.
Key Tools:
Momentum Divergence – If price makes a new high or low, but RSI fails to follow, it suggests the trend is weakening.
False Breakouts – If price breaks a key level but immediately reverses, it signals a trap set for traders expecting continuation.
Benefits:
• Better risk-reward – Entering before the confirmation means stops can be tighter, allowing for a larger potential profit.
• First-mover advantage – Catching a trend change early means getting in at a great price before the majority of traders react.
Drawbacks:
• Higher failure rate – Many trends look weak before resuming, leading to premature entries and false starts.
• Requires precision – Entry and stop placement must be exact to avoid being caught in noise.
Waiting for Confirmation: Trading the Break
Rather than trying to predict the turn, this method waits for price to confirm the reversal by breaking key levels or forming a clear new trend structure.
Key Tools:
Trend Structure Shift – A series of lower highs in an uptrend, or higher lows in a downtrend, signals exhaustion.
Break of Key Support/Resistance – Once price decisively moves beyond a critical level, it confirms the trend change.
Benefits:
• Higher probability trades – Waiting for confirmation reduces the risk of being faked out by temporary pullbacks.
• Less stressful – Entering after the break avoids the uncertainty of catching tops and bottoms.
Drawbacks:
• Worse risk-reward – Entry is later, meaning stops tend to be wider and potential profits smaller.
• Missed moves – Sometimes, a reversal happens too quickly, leaving conservative traders behind.
Applying Both Methods: Two Live Market Examples
1. EUR/USD – A Potential Trend Reversal in Progress
Recently, EUR/USD had been stuck in a long-term downtrend, with lower lows forming consistently. But the latest attempt to break support failed spectacularly.
Anticipatory Approach: Traders watching for a false breakout could have entered after price dipped below support and immediately reversed. RSI also showed bullish divergence—momentum was no longer confirming the downtrend. Entry would be placed just above the reclaimed support, with a tight stop below the false breakdown.
Momentum-Based Approach: Traders waiting for confirmation would have looked for a strong breakout above the first major resistance. After the false breakdown, price surged above prior swing highs, confirming buyers had taken control. The break of horizontal resistance provided a clearer entry signal, with stops below the breakout level.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. S&P 500 – The Start of a Breakdown?
The S&P 500 had been in a strong uptrend, but multiple failed attempts to break through resistance suggested buyers were losing momentum. Eventually, price broke below key support, triggering a sharp decline.
Anticipatory Approach: Traders looking for early signs of weakness could have entered short after noticing a series of failed breakouts. RSI divergence signalled that momentum was waning, and the repeated failures at resistance suggested a sell-off was brewing. The entry would have been placed near resistance, with stops just above the recent highs.
Momentum-Based Approach: A more patient trader would have waited for a confirmed break of support. Once the S&P sliced through a major level, a short trade could be initiated on the retest of the broken support, with stops just above the previous swing low.
S&P Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Final Thoughts: Choosing the Right Approach
Both methods have their advantages. Anticipating reversals can offer an early entry with strong risk-reward potential, but it also comes with a higher chance of false signals. Waiting for confirmation provides greater clarity and reduces the likelihood of premature entries, though it often means entering later in the move.
Neither approach is inherently better—it depends on your trading style, risk tolerance, and strategy. The key is consistency: whichever method you use, having a clear plan and following it with discipline is what separates successful traders from those who get caught on the wrong side of a trend change.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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SPX 500 - Maybe it looks to daily new lower low!Hello traders, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is Stop Loss set when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. My 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
S&P500 INDEX (US500): More Down
With a confirmed bearish breakout of a key daily horizontal support,
US500 index opens a potential for more drop.
Next key support is 5425.
It looks like the market is going to reach that soon.
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$SPX - Trading Levels for March 13 2025
Alright, y’all. We are dangling, unsupported underneath the 200DMA and that Bear Gap. I am trading cautiously today because inflation data days I tend to make a lot of mistakes.
35EMA - this level is a BEAST. We were unable to get above it yesterday. Trace it back 3 weeks and you’ll see it’s been there every time to push us back lower.
I will be looking to the outer spreads and even then I might push it out a little.
If and when I take a position I will update it here.
GL, y’all.
Market wrap 3-14how it looks at the close on SPY and futures. My feeling is a gap down monday is likely, but we'll see.
S&P500 Channel Down good until cancelled.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a 20day Channel Down that spearheaded the technical correction from last month's All Time High.
The 1hour RSI is on a bullish divergence and within this pattern this has signalled a temporary rebound near the 1hour MA100 for a Lower High rejection.
As long as the pattern holds, a tight SL sell position there is the most optimal trade, aiming at 5450.
A crossing over the 1hour MA200, invalidates the bearish sentiment and restores the buying bias. In that case, take the loss on the sell and buy, aiming at 6040 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension).
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SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down?
Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition:
📈 Current Setup:
📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. previous touch of this ascending channel) Check out our previously published long term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication).
🔹 Right now, we can see price is testing the channels lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluence of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here.
📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake out, or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimise risk.
📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones):
🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication)
🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears
🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling
📍 Key Support Levels:
❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support
🔻 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence
📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6650 All Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment.
🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long Term Reversal):
🟢 Entry : Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close).
🎯 Take Profit 1 : 6,150 (Previous high).
🎯 Take Profit 2 : 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension).
🎯 Take Profit 3 : 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publiation).
🔴 Stop Loss : Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation).
✅ Justification:
🔹The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however we believe based on our technical analysis both here, and our long term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control.
🔹 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary expectation once 6650 is reached):
❌ Invalidation Level : Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier).
🔻 Downside Short-Term Targets:
5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support.
5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity.
5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low.
🔻 Downside Long-Term Targets:
5,500 – 0.382 Fib
4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high
4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible.
✅ Justification:
❗ Please read -
❗ Higher Time Frame Long Term Analysis -
❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside.
⚡ Key Takeaways:
🔹 SPX500 is at a crossroads : Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13 .
🔹 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03 .
🔹 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13 ; otherwise, bears dominate.
📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025):
Economic Releases:
📅 Mar 10 : U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness.
📅 Mar 12 : Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown.
📅 Mar 14 : FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections.
🌐 Geopolitical Developments:
📅 Mar 11 : Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity.
📅 Mar 13 : Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets.
📅 Ongoing : Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility.
📊 Market Sentiment:
📉 Equity Flows : Hedge funds remain underweight equities (BofA survey), suggesting short-term liquidity-driven rally.
📉 Options Market : SPX500 gamma gap at 6,800 killed by recent churn, hedging flows may cap tops.
🎯 Portfolio Management Strategy:
💰 Buy Entry : At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence).
🎯 Take Profit : 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6).
❌ Stop Loss : Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib).
As price approaches 6,600, consider allocating capital to long-dated puts on the SPX500 to hedge against volatility spikes. A confirmed break below 5,755.70 would signal a shift toward bearish regimes, aligning with geopolitical tensions and potential Fed tightening.
SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)Previous SPX idea has hit our stop loss. The position was entered on touch of the lower channel trend line, however we have since fell through our tight stop. Our outlook for the SPX remains the same, with a new entry shown above between 5589-5560 and a stop loss placed below higher timeframe (8 day dynamic support) and the 61.8% fib retracement around 5360. Targets remain the same, fundamentals remain the same. Risk to reward is now 1:4.
Below is the previous ideas description which is still valid with the new price levels mentioned above:
Previous idea (Stop loss hit):
SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down?
Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition:
📈 Current Setup:
📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. Check out our previously published long-term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication).
🛩 Right now, we can see price is testing the channel's lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluences of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here.
📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake-out or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor, looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimize risk.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones):
🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication)
🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears
🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling
🔹 Key Support Levels:
❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support
🔹 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence
📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6,650 All-Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment.
🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long-Term Reversal):
🟢 Entry: Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close).
🎯 Take Profit 1: 6,150 (Previous high).
🎯 Take Profit 2: 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension).
🎯 Take Profit 3: 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publication).
🔴 Stop Loss: Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation).
✅ Justification:
🛩 The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however, we believe based on our technical analysis both here and our long-term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control.
🛩 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation Once 6,650 is Reached):
❌ Invalidation Level: Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier).
🔹 Downside Short-Term Targets:
5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support.
5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity.
5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low.
🔹 Downside Long-Term Targets:
5,500 – 0.382 Fib
4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high
4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible.
✅ Justification:
❗ Please read -
❗ Higher Time Frame Long-Term Analysis -
❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside.
⚡ Key Takeaways:
🛩 SPX500 is at a crossroads: Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13.
🛩 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03.
🛩 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13; otherwise, bears dominate.
📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025):
Economic Releases:
🗓 Mar 10: U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness.
🗓 Mar 12: Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown.
🗓 Mar 14: FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections.
🌐 Geopolitical Developments:
🗓 Mar 11: Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity.
🗓 Mar 13: Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets.
🗓 Ongoing: Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility.
📊 Portfolio Management Strategy:
💰 Buy Entry: At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence).
🎯 Take Profit: 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6).
❌ Stop Loss: Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib).
SNP, Much Needed CorrectionOne simple way to manage a U.S. portfolio is to let the ABC correction run its course, hold cash, and rotate into Asian stocks.
As the tariff buzz unfolds, it's best to stay on the sidelines while market volatility shakes out panicked traders.
When it comes to timing the markets, we’ll check back on May 22.
Drill Baby Drill...
I think a 5650 Bounce is Ideal for a Crash BetSPX continues to trade weak through supports. There are a long list of reasons why it was reasonable to expect a low to be made either today or yesterday and both times we've sold through supports.
I think this is a break but I do also think the more prudent positioning would be to look for a rally to 5650.
Very cautious now as a bear into this drop. Trailing stops. Considering a low might be made somewhere 5500 - 5450 overshoot at the most.
Will pick up some lotto calls for 560.
Start of bearish cycle for equities $SPXSP:SPX confirming trend reversal on high time frame as it attempts to breach the 50 weekly MA for the first time since the start of the 2022 bear market. Macroeconomic environment is full of uncertainty and recession signals, with POTUS Trump openly confirming that some short term pain in assets is needed for the US economy to reset and go on a better path forward.
SPX Volume profile support and gap through. Must know toolI have taken a volume profile across the rally to project Low value nodes and high value nodes to find support levels during the decline. I simply cannot emphasis enough how valuable this tool is if learn to use correctly. I use this conjunction with geometry (hidden here)
Most us know prices will come to fill the price gaps in the future, but LVN and HVN can provide information that price and volume cannot provide on their own. Eg a large bar could have a heavy volume, but you wouldn't know at what price the volume was, whether it was at the opening or closing, unless you look at the VP. Inspite of a huge volume there could be a price gap hidden in the bar
SPX Analysis chart update. The chart contains multiple technical patterns, indicating a bearish market structure. Here are the key patterns identified:
1. *Rising Wedge* – This is a bearish reversal pattern where price moves upward within a narrowing range before breaking down. It suggests weakening bullish momentum and potential selling pressure.
2. *Double Top* – A classic reversal pattern that signals a potential trend change from bullish to bearish. The price reaches a resistance level twice but fails to break higher, leading to a decline.
3. *Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (CHOCH)* – These confirm a market shift from bullish to bearish. BOS signals trend continuation, while CHOCH indicates potential reversals.
4. *Fair Value Gap (FVG)* – This is an imbalance in price action, where price might retrace before continuing downward.
5. *Support Area & Liquidity Zone (LQD)* – The price is expected to target these areas, possibly finding support or continuing the downtrend.
# Conclusion:
- The chart suggests a bearish outlook following the breakdown of the *rising wedge* and *double top*.
- If the price retraces to the *FVG*, it could offer a short-selling opportunity before continuing lower toward the support area.
Would you like help identifying possible trade setups based on this structure? Write in comment section.
SPX Will Grow! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX.
Time Frame: 45m
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 5,770.40.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5,863.87 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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S&P 500 tests key support on Trump's latest bombshellIn yet another striking move, US President Donald Trump has just announced plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, raising them from 25% to a hefty 50%. The new tariffs are slated to come into effect this Wednesday, with Trump citing Canada's intention to impose tariffs on electricity exports to the US as the catalyst for this decision. This latest escalation in trade tensions comes hot on the heels of a tumultuous Monday, which marked the worst day of 2025 for US markets. Investor fears were stoked by President Trump's aggressive tariff policies targeting America's largest trading partners, sending shockwaves through the financial landscape.
The situation has left many observers questioning the broader implications of these trade policies on both the US economy and its international relationships.
But one thing that has been quite clear all these years in this long-term bull market is that every time we have had a decent sell-off, dip-buyers have invariably stepped in and drove markets to new highs despite any macro concerns. Every single time we have heard cries of “this time it is different,” the bulls have prevailed, and bought the dip. Not even covid could hold the bulls back, let alone the unwinding of yen carry trades in 2024, or China’s sluggish recovery that caused local markets to tank last year, and before that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or the bear market of 2022 when inflation surged and caused interest rates to shoot higher across the world (excluding Japan). Are we going to see yet another such recovery soon, or does the market want to go a little deeper before dip buyers emerge? That’s the key question, and one way to find clues is by looking at the charts.
The S&P 500 here is testing liquidity below yesterday's low of 5567 and key support in the 5550 area. With the daily RSI now well into the oversold territory, can we see a rebound here heading deeper into the US session?
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with Forex.com
This might be wave 5 of the drop complete The action today I feel is a bit suspicious. Doesn't feel like what I'd expect in a usual legit breakout at this level.
This could be a butterfly low, which could setup a rally to over 6000.
Bears should be careful now if we rally.
S&P500: Potential Channel Up rebound on the 1D MA200.S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.564, MACD = -60.140, ADX = 38.870) as it unfolded the bearish wave of the long term Channel Up. The sequence has hit its 1D MA200 though, which is the major Support on this timeframe and being also the bottom of the Channel Up, we should be expecting a rebound. The first bearish wave of the Channel Up surpassed the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, so that is a valid technical target. The trade is long, TP = 6,300.
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US500:UPDATEHello friends
We witnessed a price drop due to the price reaching an important resistance.
Now, buyers have entered an important support area and by maintaining the support area, we can see the specified price targets.
*Trade safely with us*
SPX us500The index has a target price range of 5991, there is a possibility of going up from this moment, but another possibility is that the range of 5520 will be touched and then it will move up.
Up for SPX500USD again?Hi traders,
At the start of last week the price action of SPX500USD went up as predicted in my outlook but it could not reach the higher 4H FVG and dropped to the target. The bigger (red) WXY correction could be finished.
So next week we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher 4H FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish and after that a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
