Another 20% up from here on the SPX / M2SLLook at the consolidation from 1987 to 1992, when it broke out, markets went up for 7 years! It's safe to expect another 20% on the SPX from here.Longby brian76832
Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: 1 - 5 JulyWeekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: S&P 500, USD/CAD, Gold Price, TSLA Stock Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights. - S&P 500: Mid-Year Prospects Analysis - USD/CAD Breaks Key Support - Gold Price Prospects for H2 - TSLA Stock Price Hits over 5-Month High Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen. Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions. 🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.10:06by FXOpen1111
SPX vs NDX vs RUT vs TSX - Analysis Order of TopsDot Com Bubble (2000): Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> NASDAQ (NDX) -> S&P 500 (SPX) -> TSX Duration: 182 days Financial Crisis (2007-2008): Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> NASDAQ (NDX) / S&P 500 (SPX) -> TSX Duration: 366 days 2014-2015 Market Events: Top Order: TSX -> Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) -> NASDAQ (NDX) Duration: 426 days 2018 Market Events: Top Order: TSX -> Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) / NASDAQ (NDX) Duration: 64 days 2021-2022 Market Events: Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) / NASDAQ (NDX) -> TSX Duration: 273 days Key Observations: Order of Peaks: Historically, the Russell 2000 often peaks first, indicating early signs of market stress in smaller companies. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 typically follow closely, with the TSX sometimes lagging behind. Market Tops: The vertical lines indicate the specific points in time when each market peaked, showing the staggered pattern of market tops. Performance and Volatility: The NASDAQ shows the highest volatility and growth over the period, reflecting the tech sector's influence. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 also show significant growth, while the TSX exhibits more stability with less volatility. Conclusion: This analysis provides a clear understanding of the timing and order of market peaks across different indices, highlighting the importance of monitoring smaller companies (RUT) for early signs of market tops and the sequential impact on larger indices (NDX, SPX) and the more stable TSX.Longby brian7683Updated 1
S&P short entry found todayI took the S&P short entry today, this looks good to me. There is an ascending wedge. The macro makes sense, with the markets repricing towards one cut. BTC sold off first, which usually happens. Equity could keep going with the government spending, but I'm seeing more calls on risk off.Shortby decklyndubsUpdated 112
US500 Possible SELL The market is currently showing a Daily Divergence on the RSI.Based on price action, the market is forming a reversal chart pattern on the 4HR/2HR TF. We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold. This is not the perfect market condition to trade. Let's see how this will play out Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.Shortby WiLLProsperForex2
S&P 500 / Key Price Levels and Scenarios Amid NFP ImpactS&P 500 Analysis: Navigating Volatility with Key Price Levels and Scenarios Amid NFP Impact The S&P 500 currently faces a significant supply zone between 5525 and 5550, having recently hit a new all-time high at 5550. Despite this, the broader outlook remains bullish, especially after stabilizing above the previous resistance level of 5525. However, the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is poised to significantly impact the market. Bullish Scenario: To maintain the bullish momentum, the price needs to break through the supply zone and continue upward towards 5635. A 4-hour candle closing above 5550 would indicate a continued uptrend for the following week. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the price drops and stabilizes below 5525, it would signal a bearish trend, potentially leading to declines towards 5491 and 5460. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5550 - 5525 Resistance Levels: 5590, 5620, 5645 Support Levels: 5491, 5460, 5440 Today's Expected Trading Range: Today's trading range is anticipated to be between the resistance at 5635 and the support at 5460. NFP Scenarios: - Previous Result: 272K - Expectation: 191K If the NFP release is less than 191K, the indices are likely to follow a bullish scenario. Conversely, a result exceeding 191K, particularly around 250K, would likely lead to a bearish scenario. In summary, the market's direction hinges on the NFP results and critical price levels. Monitoring these key levels and the NFP report will be crucial for navigating the S&P 500's volatility.by SroshMayi4
S&P500 Shifted to new bullish pattern. 5750 next.The S&P500 index (SPX) made a major bullish break-out in accordance to our previous analysis (June 17, see chart below), where we clearly stated that a break above the 1.5-year (Fibonacci) Channel Up pattern it would indicate a transition to a new (blue) Channel Up: As you can see that happened and the index is extending that blue Channel, with the long-term prevailing pattern now being the dashed Channel Up. Technically it appears that the price is rising straight after finishing a Cup consolidation structure that is no stranger to it as we've seen it another two times, always leading in the end either to a 2.383 Fibonacci extension target or around +30% rise from the top. On the current Bullish Leg, the 2.382 Fibonacci extension comes much lower than a potential +30% rise from the April 19 bottom, so as mentioned on our previous analysis, we will be targeting (this time slightly lower) at 5750. If the 2.382 Fib breaks and we close a 1W candle above it, we will extend buying all the way to +30%, i.e. just above 6300. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot1117
Short Thesis Full PresentationI've been working on a detailed presentation to explain why I'm expecting a large correction soon, and a potential financial crisis similar to 2008. I have just finished up the technical analysis portion, assuming I didn't forget anything important. Just need to add some slides with my fundamental thesis and some speculation. TA is definitely the main driver behind this theory rather than speculation or fundamentals. Only time will tell.Short10:39by AdvancedPlaysUpdated 1112
US500 Can Develop A Range TRADING PATTERN EYES ON 5530 US500 Can Develop A Range Trading Pattern Eyes on 5530 US500 is showing the possibility that it can develop a range trading pattern US500 is in a Strong trend and focus on the market near 5450 support area which is also a major key support zone may push the price up again for another bullish wave . yesterday there was no reason for such big bareish moves in the market so the chances are higher for this pattern development . traders if you like this idea if you have on opinion about thus write in the comments i will be Glad traders if you like this idea so must fallow my analysis chart and sights for more updates.Longby MrCharlie1Updated 43
SPX AGAINEnd of zigzag wave at 5570 AB=CD Middle angle between 270 and 315 comes at 5578 Gann fan line comes in contact with future candle at 5570 Time line reverse at 5/7/2024 So most probably reverse point will be at 5570_5580 My previous Elliote analysis posted on 4/7/2024 still valid Let us wait and see by algayar371
US500/SPX morning updateBearish count for US500/SPX. This count is inspired by the possibility that the price action in the ellipse ends up being a regular flat. Price action off October 2022 low has not had the right look or feel in terms of a true 5-wave impulse. That is not to say that it isn't, or won't become, a complete impulse wave off the low when everything is said and done. This count does provide some predictive value, for if price action off the April 2024 is, in fact, a regular flat, then wave 5 of the (c) cannot go above 5777.3 (wave 3 is shorter than wave 1).by discobiscuit0
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to 5549 area (Wave "3").Dear Colleagues, I believe that price will continue its upward movement to the 5549 area. I think that now the wave "3" of the higher order continues its active development. Possible correction in wave "2" to the area of 5369.9. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns! Longby Hellena_TradeUpdated 202064
US500RSI indicates Bearish Divergence. Which means that at any time the market trend can change to LL and LH. Shortby SohailChaudharyUpdated 5
Time for little correction Uptrend going strong, but I suspect it is time for little correction movement currently it is Tokyo session there wont be any movements besides sideways. Expecting some fake out might make ne higher high in the beginning of London session and there is nothing that will help the uptrend as far as I concern. Option 1: Around 5535 to 5515 got to be careful in the beginning of the London session. Option 2: If correction crosses 5515 support line with strong high volume it is likely to go down to the trend line around 5548 Shortby Helios87227
SPX LAST WAVE ANALYSISBy today rise up to 5439.27 it ends D wave in broadening triangle Now supposed coming to wave E which supposed to end around 5463 or 5432 (most likely) or extremely at 5414 After E wave will continue up and will be revealed laterShortby algayar37117
Long Term and Short Term trend crossSPX has a very long term trend line intersecting with the 2023 uptrend line. This indicates two levels of overhead resistance around SPX 5550. Look for a strong pullback from this level. "Second-tier" stocks having a run like TSLA should also need a breather around here. not financial adviceShortby pnaik7323
US500 - at today support? placed??#US500 - well guys market just trade near his today supporting area, keep close it because market have 5440 around as today final supporting area if market hold it then bounce expected from here, buying invalidate below 5440 good luck trade wiselyby AdilHussain731333Updated 3
US500 - Look for a long !!Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on US500. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a long position. My point of interest here is if price makes a retracement to fulfill the imbalance lower and takes liquidity below equal lows then rejects from bullish order block I will open a long trade. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!Longby Snick3rSD11
FewEveryone senses there is something coming, but nobody knows what it is. Regardless the markets will correct massively, technically because we haven't had a 0.61 fib correction in a decade, secondly because the bags are too heavy and everyone is bagholding, we need to shake those who call themselves diamond hands at +50% price discounts, i.e. cheaper prices. Capital is excessively cheap, Attention is overpriced. Manual Labor is underpriced we are living in a bubble state, some call it 'the everything bubble'. Call me bubble boy, chicken little, i don't care. A Nuke is coming.Shortby MarketsCreatorUpdated 115
S&P 500: Navigating Volatility with Key Price levels & ScenariosS&P 500 Analysis: Navigating Volatility with Key Price Levels and Scenarios Stability under the pivot line which is 5525 means there will be a bearish trend toward 5491, but still has a bullish volume to get 5549. so above it means will start a new all-time high Bullish Scenario: Stability above 5525 means it will reach 5550 and should be stabilized above 5550 to continue the bullish trend around 5600. Bearish Scenario: Stability under 5525 means will drop to get 5510 and 5491, and ADP will affect on the market today and it's possible to get 5460 as well, by closing 4h candle under 5491 Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5525 - Resistance Levels: 5550, 5585, 5620 - Support Levels: 5491, 5460, 5440 Today's Expected Trading Range: The anticipated trading range for today is between the resistance at 5550 and the support at 5491.Shortby SroshMayi9
S&P 500: Mid-Year Prospects AnalysisS&P 500: Mid-Year Prospects Analysis As shown by the daily chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): → Since the beginning of 2023, the price has been moving in an upward blue channel. To date, the increase has been over 42%; → Since the start of 2024, the price has formed a steeper upward channel (shown in orange). In the first half of the year, the growth has exceeded 14%. How realistic is it for bullish sentiment to persist? And what might the index quotations be by the end of 2024? Yahoo Finance reports a decidedly bearish outlook for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) at the end of 2024, held by Marko Kolanovic, the chief strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. He cites the following factors: → Economic slowdown; → Downward revision of company profits; → The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates less than the market expects, which would put additional pressure on the economy and stock prices in the second half of the year. Kolanovic predicts the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) will be at 4200 points by the end of 2024. In the context of the attached chart, this implies not only a bearish breakout of the lower boundary of the blue upward channel but also a decline to the year's minimum. On the other hand, strategists and analysts from other reputable financial institutions tracked by Yahoo Finance hold a more optimistic view: → Evercore ISI analysts predict the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) will reach 6000 points by the end of 2024. This means the price will remain within the blue channel. → The average estimate from analysts points to a target of 5300. Based on these estimates, the lower boundary of the upward orange channel, which has been in place since the start of the year, will likely be broken, potentially leading to a significant correction. In addition to traditional fundamental factors (such as inflation, the Federal Reserve's interest rate, the labour market, and company profits), the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) price in the second half of the year could be influenced by: → The presidential election in November; → The unusually high weight of the top 10 leading technology companies (including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google) in the index. Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.by FXOpen2212
US500 Can Develop A Range Trading Pattern. Eyes on 5450US500 Can Develop A Range Trading Pattern. Eyes on 5450 US500 is showing the possibility that it can develop a range trading pattern. US500 is in a strong trend and the focus of the market near 5450 support area which is also a major key support zone may push the price up again for another bullish wave. Yesterday there was no reason for such big bearish moves in the market so the chances are higher for this pattern development. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️Longby KlejdiCuniUpdated 1120
What Is the VIX Index, and How Is It Used in Trading?What Is the VIX Index, and How Is It Used in Trading? The VIX Index serves as a key indicator of expected market volatility over the next 30 days, derived directly from S&P 500 options. Developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1993, it offers a simple way to gauge volatility and potential stock market fluctuations. In this article, we’ll explore what the VIX is, how it’s calculated, and its practical applications. Understanding the VIX Index The VIX Index, often referred to as the "fear gauge," is a real-time volatility index representing the market's expectations of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), it was introduced in 1993 to provide a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments about future stock volatility. It’s derived from option prices of the S&P 500 Index stocks, offering a glimpse into the volatility traders anticipate over the next month. The utility of the VIX lies in its ability to measure the degree of volatility—not the direction—of the stock market. High values indicate increased volatility and typically correspond to periods of market stress or uncertainty, while lower values suggest a so-called calm environment. For example, the VIX tends to spike during financial crises or significant geopolitical events, reflecting heightened investor nervousness. Traders and investors watch the VIX closely because it helps them better understand market conditions. By analysing the index, they can gauge whether market participants are feeling fearful or complacent. This index does not provide direct insights into which direction the market will move but rather the intensity of expected fluctuations. How the VIX Is Calculated Unlike measures of past volatility, the VIX is forward-looking, utilising the implied volatilities derived from S&P 500 index options. It uses the prices of a wide range of S&P 500 index options, both puts and calls, across various strike prices. It focuses particularly on options near expiration—those with more than 23 days but less than 37 days until expiration. This range is chosen to capture the most immediate sentiments about volatility. To calculate the VIX, the CBOE aggregates the weighted prices of these selected options. The weighting of each option reflects the inverse of the option’s strike price squared, which emphasises the relative importance of options closer to the money and lessens the impact of those further out. The methodology involves a complex mathematical formula that integrates these prices into a single value representing implied volatility. This process includes calculating the expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of the options, factoring in their probabilities of finishing "in the money" under the assumption of a log-normal distribution of stock prices. The result is then annualised to express the VIX in percentage points. The values produced by the VIX range on a scale typically between 10 and 80, although it can occasionally fall outside these bounds during periods of extreme tranquillity or turbulence. A value of around 10 to 20 generally indicates a perceived low-volatility environment, suggesting investor confidence and so-called market stability. Above 20 typically indicates a shaky market, while readings above 30 are often associated with more acute market stress and high volatility levels. A value of 40+ usually only occurs after a strongly negative market event; previous examples include the 2008 financial crisis, the onset of COVID-19, the Eurozone crisis, and various flash crashes over the years. To compare the VIX’s performance with the fluctuations of the US stock market, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to interact with real-time charts. Practical Applications of the VIX in Trading The VIX serves as a valuable tool for traders. It aids in understanding market sentiment and strategising trades based on perceived risk. Here's how traders often use the VIX in their trading activities: VIX Trading Instruments The VIX offers various tradable instruments that allow traders to capitalise on volatility. Key examples include CFDs, futures, options, and Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) like the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) and ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY). Traders can buy or sell these instruments to speculate or hedge against a market downturn. Risk Assessment The VIX plays a crucial role in assessing the market’s risk environment. When the VIX is high, it indicates increased volatility and uncertainty, suggesting that traders might face higher risks in the equity markets. Traders use this information to decide when to increase or decrease their exposure. For example, a sudden spike in the VIX might lead a trader to reduce their holdings in more volatile assets or shift towards more defensive stocks. Hedging Strategies It’s common to see traders using the VIX to hedge their positions against a potential market downturn. When they anticipate a rise in market volatility—suggested by a trending upward VIX—they may purchase VIX futures, options, or ETFs that are designed to increase in value as volatility rises. This hedging action helps to offset potential losses in their portfolio due to falling stock prices. It's a form of insurance against turbulence. Market Timing While the VIX does not indicate the direction in which the market will move, it provides clues about the intensity of market moves. Traders watch for extremes in the VIX readings to gauge potential reversals. For instance, historically high VIX levels often precede market bottoms, prompting traders to look for opportunities to buy at reduced prices. Similarly, unusually low VIX levels might signal complacency amongst investors, which could precede a pullback or correction. Currency Trading While the VIX has a direct application to the US stock market, it can also offer clues to currency traders. High readings are generally associated with a stronger dollar as investors exit their positions and seek so-called safe havens. Conversely, a low VIX indicates so-called market stability, leading to a weaker dollar as capital moves to riskier assets. However, if the trigger for a high VIX also deters dollar investors (e.g. concerns around the US economy), the dollar can weaken simultaneously. Can the VIX Signal a Recession? The VIX, while measuring expected stock market volatility over the next 30 days, does not directly signal recessions. It reflects investor sentiment and the market’s expectations for volatility, not the broader economic conditions that typically indicate a recession. However, it can provide indirect clues. Sharp, sustained increases in the VIX could suggest investor anxiety about future economic performance, which might precede economic downturns. For example, a significant and rapid rise in the VIX, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, corresponded with deep economic troubles. However, the VIX itself is more reactive than predictive. It rises in response to investor fears, which can be triggered by both economic factors and other influences like geopolitical unrest. Therefore, while a high value can signal periods of economic stress, it shouldn’t be used in isolation to indicate recessions. It’s more accurate to view the VIX as a barometer of market sentiment at a particular time rather than an analysing tool for economic declines. Economic indicators such as GDP growth rates, employment figures, and business investment levels provide a more direct insight into economic health and potential recessions. The Bottom Line The VIX Index is more than just a measure of market volatility; it's a versatile tool that informs a wide range of trading strategies. Whether it's assessing risk, timing entries, or understanding the implications of market movements on currency values, the VIX can help traders make informed decisions. For those looking to trade based on sentiment and volatility, consider opening an FXOpen account to take advantage of these insights in real-time trading scenarios. FAQ What Is the VIX Index? The VIX Index, known as the "fear gauge," is an index representing the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. Developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1993, it gauges market sentiment and risk appetite by analysing the prices of S&P 500 index options. What Does the VIX Measure? The VIX measures the current market expectation of volatility, specifically 30-day forward-looking volatility. Unlike specific stock or sector movements, it reflects the overall sentiment towards volatility, indicating the level of risk or fear among investors. How Is the VIX Calculated? The VIX is calculated using a wide range of S&P 500 index options, both puts and calls, focusing on those with expirations between 23 and 37 days. It aggregates the weighted prices of these options to derive a measure of expected volatility. How to Use VIX in Trading? Traders use the VIX to gauge market risk and sentiment, assisting in decisions about portfolio hedging, timing entries and exits, and capitalising on volatility through VIX futures, options, and ETFs. Can VIX Predict Recession? While the VIX can indicate increased anxiety and potential downturns, it can’t signal recessions. It reflects immediate investor sentiments rather than long-term economic trends. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.by FXOpen2213