S&P 500: This Pattern Could EmergeThey say recession is imminent...
This is how it can emerge on the S&P 500 chart
in shape of Head & Shoulders
Its visual speculation, so let's leave it here and return in 2026-2032
to check if it played out
SPX500USD trade ideas
Spring Loaded Wedge? Let the setup come to you! $SPXLowkey top watch for the next few weeks!
It was a chop zone last week = consolidation? Now zooming out, it’s looking like a loaded wedge/flag forming. A lot of bearish sentiment, tariff talks and unknown lately but this is looking mighty interesting of a formation. Volume also slowly declining, wondering if we’re setting up for once a decision/mutual agreement is made with US, China + others involved.
Green ray is my ENTRY: 5372.44
*Also eyeing 5329.66*
- For potential upside. We have a few gams above to also fill and can magnet upwards if we get news, volume etc.
Looking for the banger* here - of course, things are still brewing. Note this is the HOURLY timeframe. Wait for the setup to come!
Let me know your thoughts! Appreciate any insight. Do your DD! #NFA AMEX:SPY SP:SPX
S&P 500 Pullback Nearing End? Hammer + Elliott Wave Say Rebound!The S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is one of the most important indexes in the financial market these days , with the cryptocurrency market and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) having a strong correlation with this index .
After Donald Trump suspended tariffs on 90 countries (except China) , the S&P 500 Index started to rise and seems to have managed to break through the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,094) and is pulling back to this zone .
One of the signs of a reversa l of the S&P 500 Index can be the formation of the Hammer Candlestick Pattern , which announces the end of the pullback .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing a corrective wave that could be in the form of a main wave 4 ( it is correcting both in time and price ).
I expect the S&P 500 Index to resume its upward trend in the coming hours, if nothing special is released , and to reach the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) and Yearly Pivot Point . If this happens, today's Bitcoin analysis could also be correct .
Note: In the worst case, if the S&P 500 Index touches $5,050, we should expect a further decline in the S&P 500 Index and Bitcoin.
Do you think the S&P 500 Index will return to an upward trend, or is this increase temporary?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),1-hour time frame.
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Déjà Vu: 2025 Tariffs Mirror 2018 Trade War PlaybookThe economic strategy behind the new wave of tariffs bears an unmistakable resemblance to the 2018–2020 U.S.–China trade conflict. That’s no coincidence. Peter Navarro, the architect of the 2018 tariff playbook under President Trump, has once again stepped into a key role shaping trade policy in Trump’s second term.
In 2018, the Trump administration launched a phased escalation of tariffs, starting with targeted duties on Chinese imports and expanding into broader measures that disrupted global supply chains. By Q4 2018, the S&P 500 had fallen nearly 20%, while tech-heavy names like NVIDIA plunged over 50% amid valuation compression, supply chain fears, and geopolitical stress.
Peter Navarro’s re-emergence signals that this isn’t just about political posturing. Known for his hardline stance on China and focus on economic nationalism, Navarro treats tariffs not as negotiation tools but as long-term policy. In 2018, that posture drove escalation until the market forced a pause.
Now in 2025, we’re watching the same script unfold almost beat for beat:
1. Start with China
2. Expand globally
3. Soften the global rhetoric to isolate China
4. Target key sectors (semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, energy)
5. Start the media misdirection to work behind the scenes with China
6. Set up a “deal” under market pressure
In 2025, the market again entered bear territory but staged a brief recovery after a pause in reciprocal tariffs. As of April 21, 2025, the index sits 16% off its February high and still in a downtrend.
Now, looking at the charts, here where things begin to take shape. Let’s start with the 2018 chart (figure 1). Like previously mentioned, back in 2018, the S&P 500 dropped over 20% between September and December, finding the bottom at a key support from 20 months prior (Q1 2017). The first gray box represents 10 weeks from the 2018 high. The 10 weeks is important because we are currently 10 weeks off the 2025 high, so this first gray box shows historically where we are today relative to the 2018 prices. The second gray box represents the 3 remaining weeks of drawdown, which was roughly 10%.
Figure 1
Now looking at the 2025 chart (figure 2), we have the same 10-week gray box marked up, and the additional 3-week, 10% drawdown, gray box that follows. Coincidentally, or not, the bottom of the second gray box aligns almost perfectly with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2022 swing low to the 2025 high (figure 3). Even more interesting, that support level also ties back to the September 2023 high—roughly 20 months prior. Sound familiar?
Figure 2
Figure 3
I will be watching that 4500 level for SPX over the next few weeks as Trump and Navarro are preparing to roll out more sector-specific tariffs in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell is facing renewed pressure, including calls to step down—again, nearly identical to the rhetoric from late 2018.
Currently, markets are pricing in just a 10% chance of a rate cut, according to Kalshi. But if the market continues to slide, Navarro and Trump may dial up pressure on the Fed to act. A rate cut in early May could mark the market bottom—just like Powell’s dovish pivot did in early 2019.
If the 2018 blueprint holds, we’re in the middle innings. Tariffs are broadening, the market is reacting, and the Fed is being boxed in. The coming weeks may test the 0.618 Fib level on the S&P 500. If Powell pivots and rhetoric softens, we may find a low—and history will have rhymed, if not outright repeated. If Powell stays strong, then Trump and Navarro may publicly pull back and take negotiations behind closed doors.
I don’t see this is being just being coincidental. This seems to be following a very familiar playbook.
here is my Idea I believe the price is still going down. Everything has a 2 way which depends on the probability. Good luck and thank you
Noise, S&P Scenario, Gold BubbleThank you to the tradingview community for engaging and supporting my content.
After another rough start to the week, we have a bit of a crossroads ahead for the S&P
1) We revisit the April 7 lows and poke lower with bear trap opportunities
2) We hold Monday April 21 lows and grind back up to gap fill and revisit 5400-5500 resistance
3) We go nowhere with a lot of intraday volatility and noise (between the April 7 low and the April 9 high)
The markets are on high alert
DXY
Gold
Bitcoin
US Bonds vs Treasuries (yields rising)
Trump is more vocal about threatening the FED or firing Powell and the concern is truly unprecedented
Trade War pause is still ongoing, China is being vocal as well to make sure countries don't simply line up to support the US. For all of this to calm down, US and China have to play nice. China is likely able to hold the line longer than the US in the near-term
Thanks for watching!!!
Global Supply Chains being Undone could be the cause of a (IV)I have been discussing the potential for a Super-Cycle wave (III) top in the US markets for the last couple years. To experience a wave (IV) of SUPERCYCLE PREPORTION, would be a consolidation of price action back to the 1929 stock market crash. The byproduct of this type of price action would be a decline of 50% or more (likely more) in the value of global stock markets. This type of asset price deflation would make anyone who watches the markets be inquisitive as to what would or even COULD cause such an event.
Would the dismantling of global supply chains, that have been in place since the early 1990’s, be the culprit?
I am starting to think the answer to that question is yes. This is not an indictment of the policy, but more an acknowledgement of the disruption and the possible aftermath.
The obvious concern is how do businesses plan? I would venture a guess business leaders will be challenged, and many may not survive. The cost equation becomes so skewed…how does one make money without passing the costs on to the consumer? That means higher inflation.
If this is the case, it’s possible digital assets become more of a safe haven which would be counter intuitive to hard asset value. This would mean that we will have endure a cycle of higher inflation, higher interest rates, and higher unemployment, coupled with lower economic growth. I cannot say this is how the forecasted price action is justified in the future. What I can say is the resulting price action will look very similar to the below.
S&P500 - The Correction Is Over Now!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting massive support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of days, we have been seeing a quite harsh stock market "crash" with an overall correction of about -20%. However, as we are speaking the S&P500 is already retesting a major confluence of support and if we see bullish confirmation, this drop might be over soon.
Levels to watch: $4.900
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P500: Bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders.The S&P500 index is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.973, MACD = -126.240, ADX = 31.007) but long term appears to have bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. In fact, the Head made a low on the Double Bottom and the bearish outlook is currently due to the Right Shoulder formation. A crossing over the dashed LH trendline and even better the 4H MA200, would aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,280).
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The creeping marketWe are still at support as of now, and the VIX looks like it may be a false breakout. It will be particularly interesting to see if we can hold this level into the close.
I am CALLING A BOTTOM TODAY I MOVED95% long 5109/5079 today The chart posted is the sp 500 I called for a sharp decline back to 5100 it has formed a ABC down I look for a sharp rally back to 5644/5669 Now before the next leg down today is wave Blow ,Best of trades WAVETIMER
now or nevermarket is at secondary support and is now down more than 3 percent. If we are going to bounce, this is the level that should hold.
SPX potentials for resistance & lowsI do dowsing & that's where I get my information from. I am expecting a move up tomorrow and then a high Wed./Thurs. with a reversal back down.
I've had levels around the 5450 area even since September, as well as dates suggesting a return to prices even lower from around November/December 2023, which if you recall, was the start of this big run up. I'm only showing the more near term idea, because that's what seems more clear.
The areas at the top are likely resistance in the near term. I'm not sure on timing for lows, but suspect something big in June/July.
I have some potentially important dates including this Thursday, as well as April 18th, 23rd, June 2nd and twice I get July 14th as well.
S&P500The S&P 500 is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, as reflected in the recent price action. Notably, the H4 (4-hour) timeframe indicates sustained upward strength, signaling a continuation of the current bullish trend.
Long-Term Trend Still Intact for S&P 500The S&P 500 is falling, but despite the sharp negative moves in recent weeks, the longer-term trend remains positive.
The uptrend that began with the 2020 dip is still intact, and it appears the market has used this trend as an opportunity to buy the dips in the last two weeks.
If you zoom out from the current economic turmoil, the broader positive outlook for the U.S. market remains. U.S. stocks have become slightly more affordable following the recent selloff. If the U.S. manages to avoid a deep recession, this market pullback could create a huge opportunity for those who missed out on the 2023–2024 rally.
However, risks are notably higher now, especially with the introduction of new tariffs that are likely to weigh on growth.
As long as the long-term trend holds, downward moves into the 4600–4800 zone could offer compelling long-term buying opportunities.
Sideways for nowA rally today to test the previous highs is possible, but be aware that in this sideways range, what comes up then goes down and vice versa.
Post-Easter Drift: Markets Hit the Snooze ButtonMonday will be the first proper day back in the saddle after a long Easter weekend.
The chocolate coma has almost worn off. Markets will be waking up. Kind of.
These post-holiday opens are notoriously sluggish. Volume’s light. Direction takes a while to reveal itself. And everyone’s pretending to care about macro while waiting for real price action to show up.
But we’ve already got our map.
And the Wolfe Wave that paid us last week? Still unfolding.
I’m sitting tight with a fresh cup of caffeine, watching the 5400 level as our bull/bear toggle… and waiting to see if Trump rage-tweets another black swan into existence before the bell rings.
We’re not here to chase headlines.
We follow the system that pays.
--
SPX analysis 22 April 2025
The Wolfe Wave setup we traded last week hasn’t invalidated and still has room to run. The projected target near 5000 remains in play, and we’re well within the structure for a continued grind lower.
The swing income trade is live. And because this is options – not directional heroism – we don’t need the full drop to get paid. But a fast tag of 5000 will certainly do us a favour on timing.
On the GEX front, things remain bearish:
5400 = resistance + gamma flip level
5250 = highest negative gamma magnet this week
No bullish flips yet, and no major hedging pressure being relieved
That leaves our plan unchanged:
Bear bias holds under 5400
Swings remain on
Be ready to reassess if we bounce or overshoot key levels
Business as usual. Let price confirm. Let the system trigger.
Patience to profits.
---
Expert Insights: (Trading Mindset for Today)
The strategy is simple:
Wait for the setup. Place the trade. Walk away.
The temptation today will be to force something just because it’s the first day back.
Don’t. You’re not paid to predict. You’re paid to follow the rules.
A calm trader with a plan outperforms a hyper trader with opinions.
Common Trading Mistake & How to Avoid It
❌ Confusing movement with opportunity
Just because the market opens doesn’t mean it’s ready to trade.
✅ Let the setup come to you
Rule-based trading means you wait for confirmation – not caffeine.
Fun Market Fact – When Gamma Gets Negative…
Did you know that negative gamma magnifies market moves?
Here’s how it works:
Dealers hedge in the same direction as price
That creates more volatility, not less
Which means… wild swings are more likely when GEX is negative
This is why we’re watching 5250 this week – it’s where gamma says “this way, please” (and dealers cry quietly behind the screens).
---
Rumour Has It…
Trump’s latest tweet simply read: “ SP:SPX = Sad. Bears win.” Futures dipped 0.3% before recovering.
5400 is now being described as “psychological resistance” – which means nobody has a clue but it sounds clever.
GEX models reportedly enrolled in therapy after being ignored all weekend.
(This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.)
S&P500SPX showing strong bullish momentum after confirming a double bottom. Last week’s COT report showed increased institutional longs. Add in a dovish Fed, solid earnings, and low VIX — the setup looks strong. Watching for continuation above key resistance.
SPX: hard way upThe S&P 500 index tried very hard to sustain a bit of market optimism, however, it ended the trading week at almost the same level, where it started it. Monday was a positive day, where the index managed to open higher from Friday's close, reaching 5.450, however, through the rest of the week, it was traded with a negative sentiment. Thursday closed at the level of 5.282. Friday was a non-working day on Western markets, due to the Easter holiday. It will be closed also on Monday, which might be treated as a positive, considering current sentiment.
Regardless of a drop in the value of the index, the stocks were traded in a mixed manner. Market favourite Nvidia gained almost 3%, supported by its business plan for the next period, increasing their projections for exports to China. This was positive, considering the uncertainties related to trade tariffs between the US and China. Elly-Lilly, a drug maker, gained almost 14%, after posting positive results on a trial of its weight-loss drug.
Generally, US companies continue to provide relatively positive results, considering the ongoing uncertainties related to trade tariffs. The another topic which is bringing uncertainty in investors is a pressure from the US Administration on Fed to cut interest rates. Fed Chair Powell, noted during a speech that tariffs implemented by the US Administration could drive up inflation higher, which is certainly something that the market is not at all happy to hear at these sensitive moments. Increased inflation would imply that the Fed will not be in the position to cut interest rates, as planned, during the course of this year. So, regardless of positive results that US companies are still managing to post, still, the inflation fears are the most critical moment for investors, which continues to drive their sentiment for investments.
Big Tech Lines Up for Earnings Season: What Traders Should KnowPeak earnings season is right around the corner — the next two weeks are for the geeks with tech giants slated to report their quarterly financials all the while traders and investors weigh concerns over tariffs, trade wars, and export controls.
On tap to offload first-quarter earnings updates this week are Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA (Tuesday) and Google parent Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL (Thursday).
We’ll get more of the tech elite next week — Meta NASDAQ:META and Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT deliver next Wednesday and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL report Thursday. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA reports late in May.
Let’s talk about that.
Welcome to earnings season, aka that rush hour of the quarter when traders hit refresh on the earnings calendar , their watchlists, and cortisol levels.
Once again, it's Big Tech in the spotlight — specifically the Magnificent Seven club, a pack of tech heavy hitters who spent the past year building the future of artificial intelligence only to be the first out the door this year when investors dumped risk in the face of looming global uncertainty.
Now, with Tesla and Alphabet kicking off what could be a market-moving series of updates, the real question isn’t just who beat the numbers — but who can still tell a good story in the face of tariffs, competition, and AI-fueled capex that’s starting to look like Monopoly money.
👜 The Setup: Seven Stocks, Seven Bags to Hold
The Magnificent Seven — Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Nvidia — aren’t just the tech elite. They’ve been the main engine of the market for the last few years. But in 2025, the wheels have come off.
These technology mainstays, towering over the growth sector, have shed hundreds of billions and are now nursing double-digit percentage losses. Each. One. Of. Them. The growth space, valued more on prospects of bright performance rather than current showing, has been hit hard this year. How hard? That hard:
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA is down 36%
Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is down 27%
Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN is down 21%
Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL is down 20%
Apple NASDAQ:AAPL is down 19%
Meta NASDAQ:META is down 16%
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT is down 12%
On the outside, we all know what’s dragging stocks — it’s the widespread tariff jitters fanning recession fears and triggering waves of capital outflows. But on the inside, these tech giants are deep into a spending spree, and paring back that guidance might be too late.
AI spending is now at fever pitch, having gone from “impressive” to “uh… should we be concerned?” And that’s what investors will be watching when these masters of technology report quarterly numbers.
Besides the usual revenue figures, earnings per share and (likely timid) guidance, capital expenditures will draw a ton of attention. Capital expenditures, or capex, is the amount of money a company allocates for investments in new stuff like hardware and software and that may include beefing up existing infrastructure.
Injecting AI into systems and operations is top focus right now and Big Tech has decided to be generous and pony up some big money for it. Here’s what this year’s capex looks like, as per prior guidance:
Microsoft has allocated $80 billion
Alphabet has set aside $75 billion
Amazon? $100 billion ready to roll
Zuck’s Meta is in with up to $65 billion
The rest of the Mag 7 haven’t put out official capex projections but no one is sleeping on the opportunity.
Let’s go around the room and see what each of these is dealing with right now.
🚗 Tesla: A Look Under the Hood
Tesla reports first, and traders are bracing for either redemption — or another reason to panic sell.
On the surface, it’s not pretty: EV demand is sagging, especially in China and Europe. Musk’s political disruption and proximity to Trump aren’t helping the optics. And with shares already down 36% this year, the company enters this earnings call with bruises and baggage.
Revenue is expected to come in at $21.2 billion, down 1%, while earnings are projected to drop 8% to $0.42. Tesla delivered 336,681 cars in Q4 , a 14% drop from the same time a year ago.
🌎 Alphabet: Quiet Strength, But Still on Watch
Alphabet is expected to deliver solid results — $89.2 billion in revenue, up 11%, and $2.01 in earnings per share, up 6.3% from last year. Among the Mag 7, it’s one of the best-positioned players to weather trade volatility, thanks to its size, diverse revenue streams, and sheer dominance in advertising and cloud computing.
Its Gemini AI model is heating up the race against ChatGPT and Copilot, and its cloud division is quietly chipping away at AWS and Azure’s lead.
That said, traders will still be watching for any signs of slowdown in digital ad spending—a canary in the coal mine if the economy starts to sputter under tariffs and tightening global conditions.
💻 Amazon and Apple: The Slow Burners
Amazon, with its big-ticket spending on AI, is playing the long game — mostly through AWS, the company’s main driver of profitability. It's aggressive, even by Big Tech standards. The problem? AWS margins are under pressure, and retail is facing the squeeze from cautious consumers.
Amazon needs to prove it can turn AI into revenue, not just headlines. Amazon’s sales and earnings per share are projected to grow 8.16% and 38.7% respectively.
Apple, meanwhile, is in the risky position of relying a bit too much on China for its products — it ships about 90% of its iPhone from Asia’s biggest economy.
And while that may be irrelevant for first-quarter results, it may weigh on the company’s outlook, considering Trump’s flip-flopping on Chinese tariffs (is tech in or is tech out?) .
The iPhone maker is expected to report $93.9 billion in revenue and $1.61 in earnings per share.
🔍 Meta and Microsoft: AI Darlings With Something to Prove
Meta reports next Wednesday, and the pressure’s on. Zuck has gone full steam into AI, pushing for everything from AI chatbots in WhatsApp to personalized content generation across Facebook and Instagram.
But here’s the kicker: Meta still makes its money from ads. And if ad budgets start shrinking in response to tariffs or a slower economy, AI investments may not save the day — at least not right away.
Meta is expected to pull in $41.3 billion in revenue and $5.24 in earnings per share.
Microsoft, on the other hand, has positioned itself as the white-collar AI whisperer. Copilot is everywhere — Office, Teams, Edge, Windows — and its $80 billion in AI infrastructure spending is squarely aimed at enterprise dominance.
It still holds a 49% stake in OpenAI, and Azure is growing, albeit slower than expected. If Microsoft can show AI adoption translating into real revenue, traders may get the breakout they’ve been waiting for.
Microsoft is expected to pick up revenue of $68.5 billion and $3.23 in earnings per share.
🤖 Nvidia: The Final Boss
Nvidia won’t report until late May, but it’s already looming over the entire earnings season. Every other tech company is spending billions on Nvidia’s chips — so when the chipmaker finally updates investors, it could swing sentiment across the entire sector.
The market wants to see that demand is real and growing, especially from hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. If Nvidia disappoints, the fallout might be like watching a domino go down.
Nvidia is expected to bring home $43.1 billion in revenue and $0.90 in earnings per share.
⚙️ Final Thoughts: Big Bets, Big Risks
This isn’t just another earnings season — it’s a stress test for the Magnificent Seven amid times of big market shifts. The group that once carried the market now faces a reality check: AI is expensive, global trade is messy, and Wall Street is no longer giving out free passes for “vision.”
But where there’s risk, there’s also opportunity. Traders who can sift through the noise, spot the change in tone, and ride the next narrative — whether it’s autonomous Teslas, AI-powered spreadsheets, or ad-supported Metaverse avatars — will have the edge.
What’s your take? Which Big Tech name are you watching most closely — and are you betting on a rebound or bracing for more pain? Let’s hear it from you.
S&P 500: Defensive Plays Dominate as Growth Sectors Falter- Key Insights: The S&P 500, currently priced at **5275.7**, reflects cautious
investor sentiment, with defensive sectors like **utilities**, **consumer
staples**, and **real estate** outperforming amid market volatility.
Elevated uncertainty is evident from higher VIX levels, driven by
geopolitical tensions, weak forward earnings guidance, and concerns about
growth sectors such as **technology** and **semiconductors**. Institutional
flows into safe-haven assets like **gold** signal limited risk appetite,
suggesting near-term weakness in equity markets.
- Price Targets: For the upcoming week, a cautious long position is suggested,
given support scenarios and stabilization prospects.
- **Target 1 (T1): $5380** (short-term resistance)
- **Target 2 (T2): $5450** (psychological level)
- **Stop Level 1 (S1): $5180**
- **Stop Level 2 (S2): $5135**
- Recent Performance: The S&P 500 displayed mixed performance, with defensive
sectors outperforming while growth sectors like technology lagged due to
pressures from macroeconomic factors. The broader equity landscape remains
volatile, as indicated by the elevated VIX readings and constrained trading
ranges in major indices such as the Russell 2000.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts recommend defensive positioning, favoring sectors
like **utilities** and real estate, as investors grapple with recessionary
risks and inflation concerns. Technology and semiconductor stocks,
particularly **Nvidia** and **AMD**, face headwinds from regulatory
restrictions and trade tensions with China. Federal Reserve statements
suggest potential rate cuts later in the year, but near-term hawkishness
persists, given inflationary pressures.
- News Impact: Key earnings reports from **Tesla**, **Google**, **Intel**, and
**Boeing** could drive sentiment shifts. Tesla's results may influence
market trends heavily, reinforcing key technical levels. Additionally,
renewed U.S.-China trade concerns over semiconductor tariffs add
uncertainty. A weakening U.S. dollar favors safe-haven assets such as
**gold**, while geopolitical risks and economic softness point to limited
upside for risk assets in the near term.
What If Trump’s Tariffs Are Actually Bullish for SPX ?Hello Traders 🐺
In this idea, I want to take a closer look at SPX and break down why the new U.S. tariffs and Trump’s economic policies could either boost or damage the U.S. economy in the coming months. So make sure to stay with me until the very end.
🔍 Let’s start with the chart:
As you can see, SPX is currently holding above a weekly support level, marked by the orange ascending trendline. So far, so good. However, we’re also seeing a massive bearish divergence on the RSI — and in my opinion, this was one of the key reasons behind the recent Black Monday-style selloff.
⚠️ But here’s the deal: If SPX breaks below this orange trendline, the next strong support is around 3375 — aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the monthly blue trendline inside our green support zone.
🤔 Should we be bearish on SPX and the U.S. economy?
That’s the big question… and it’s tricky to answer right now. Let’s break it down.
🔧 1. Tariffs and Trump: What’s really going on?
We’re currently in a pause phase of the ongoing tariff war — with countries negotiating to avoid escalation. But here’s the catch: markets hate uncertainty, and that’s why we saw panic selling recently.
Still, most people miss the bigger picture here.
The U.S. has long been a consumer-driven economy, importing heavily from other nations. Meanwhile, U.S. producers have struggled to compete — both domestically and internationally — due to low tariffs at home and high tariffs abroad.
So what do Trump’s new tariffs do?
✅ They level the playing field for U.S. companies at home
✅ They push other countries to lower their tariffs through negotiation
✅ They reduce dependency on foreign imports and support domestic production
In short, if combined with smart monetary policy, these moves could actually help revive U.S. manufacturing and strengthen the economy in the mid-to-long term.
📉 Final thoughts on SPX:
I personally don’t believe the bearish breakdown is coming — but as a trader, I focus on reality, not preference. Right now, we’re still holding above major support, and unless that breaks, the bullish scenario remains in play.
Let me know what you think about this macro setup in the comments.
And as always remember:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
