SPX500USD trade ideas
SPX MONTHLY TIMEFRAME... GLTAmy forecast on the spx for the next year, after higher highs come higher lows, and based on where valuations are right now the market needs to take a breath. officially bearish
SPX 2025 Target GuideHello Traders,
Here is my Target guide for 2025. Using Fibs and other TA this is bullish targets I see this year. I expect two more waves..One lasting into April and another into the Fall... with this being one of the largest just starting. Its kind of hard to believe right now before an ATH but looking at the last 5 waves bull market in 2021 as a guide, which I will show in another pic below, I still believe we have two more waves to go this year before needing a big breather. Not saying we can't have a nice dip this spring but I'm targeting the one in the fall being the largest.. Will we continue into 2026 at all? We will see as we head into fall how it looks then...
Other than the 2000 and 2008 crashes every year after an election has been very bullish. Now we did have an exceptional bullish 2024 which could of zapped some of the run this year but I still think we aren't done yet. Many are calling tops recently which is always possible but earnings and other data continues to support the bulls ahead IMO.
Zoomed out here is 2021 5 waves
Lets look at wave structure. This is where you can see the separate waves in 2021 and now. Much easier to kinda see that we only had three waves so far with a least one but more than likely two more waves left.
Market SnapshotAbsolute must read article from Avi Gilburt and team
MUST READ
www.saferbankingresearch.com
The below is a quote from the Fed as mentioned in the article:
"Bank failures are remarkably predictable based on simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements that measure a bank’s insolvency risk and funding vulnerabilities."
Now ask yourself how can you use that info to protect yourself..and even make money
Decision on Monday for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD followed the prediction in my outlook. It finished the corrective move down into the lower 4H FVG and after that it went (corrective) up again.
So now on Monday is the decision.
If Monday closes below current price action this pair could go down lower for the break of the low from the (orange) Y-wave.
But if Monday closes above current price action, we could see this pair go up again for a new ATH.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the bigger correction down to finish and a change in orderflow to bullish again. After that you could trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
Monday sell Off? History May Repeat Itself...Monday Sell-Off? This Setup Says It’s Coming... | SPX Market Analysis 10 Feb 2025
Another week wraps up, and as I eye Monday’s open, I can’t shake a sense of déjà vu.
The last two weeks started with a gap down, followed by a bearish finish into the weekend.
Super Bowl Sunday is also here – Can the Kansas City Chiefs complete an unprecedented three-peat in Super Bowl 59 or will the Philadelphia Eagles gain revenge? Just like the markets, only time will tell and we will have to wait and see.
That said, Friday’s setup is setting the stage for another pop ‘n drop. The only question? What triggers the fall this time?
...
SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📉 Mondays Have Been Bearish – Will This One Be Too?
The last two Mondays started with a gap down, followed by a bearish move into the weekend. If the pattern holds, next week could open with a bang – but not necessarily to the upside.
🏈 Super Bowl & The Markets – A Perfect Parallel?
The markets are playing their own Super Bowl showdown. Will the bulls make a comeback, or will the bears crush their hopes yet again? Just like the Chiefs vs. Eagles, we can only wait and see.
🔻 Friday’s Bearish Setup – A Warning Sign?
- V-shaped reversal entry ✅
- Bearish pulse bar confirmation ✅
- Similar daily bar pattern to the last two Fridays ✅
📌 So What Happens Monday?
If history repeats itself, we could see:
- A pop higher at the open, luring in buyers 🏹
- A sharp drop shortly after, trapping the late bulls 🕳
- A repeat of the last two weeks' bearish close 📉
🔑 Key Takeaway: The setup is there. Now we wait for the trigger.
Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? The Super Bowl Indicator suggests that if an AFC team wins, markets go bearish, but if an NFC team wins, markets go bullish.
💡 The Lesson? As ridiculous as it sounds, market psychology is a wild beast. While we don’t trade superstition, it’s always fun to see how random events get tied to stock performance.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the weekly trading session, the S&P 500 effectively hit critical support levels at 5996 and 5936, respectively. A downtrend presently characterizes the market, as bullish momentum is stalled. Current analyses indicate that this downward trajectory will likely persist, with anticipated retesting of the Mean Support levels of 5996, the possibility of trading at Mean Support 5936, and a significant decline to the Outer Index Dip at 5878. Should this scenario not materialize, the market is favorably positioned for the subsequent phase of the bullish trend, with the test of the newly established resistance level at 6083 and revisiting the previously completed Outer Index Rally level of 6120.
Let's speak about savings...Hey guys,
As I've lately taken great interest in publishing my trading ideas here on TradingView,
I want to speak about something that rarely if ever gets spoken about in the trading community, by trading community I mean us goobers on charts who do intra-day, swing, day trading etc... who get sad for not making 10% a month on forex etc...
That is your savings, specifically investing your savings on a long term basis and compound the interest earned by the dividend yields.
Useless to say that I'll be speaking about the S&P 500 and how you can approach it too.
First of all, you can't directly buy the S&P500 that you see here on trading view, as this is an index and in order for you to invest in the performance of the index you need to buy into ETFs, mutual funds, or derivatives like options and futures that are designed to track it.
There are many big funds around, like iShares, Fidelity, Vanguard, Amundi etc...
To be honest the one I personally invest into is the Core S&P 500 USD Acc from iShares that auto compounds the dividends but you really can choose between tens of funds.
The key factors that you must keep into consideration when choosing a fund are these:
- Currency of the fund (what currency is the fund based on)= if it is another country's currency, you'll have to exchange it every time you want to make an entry, amounting to extra commissions and fees that aren't sexy.
- Dividends= if the fund pays out dividends, if it pays it in cash or shares or if it self reinvests them or it doesn't...
- Tax residency of the fund (on which exchange is the Fund/ETF listed on)= important as when it will come to pay your taxes, some funds may have extra taxes due to the residency/exchange.
Now... let's get to the sauce, you have probably heard about DCA (Dollar Cost Average) as it's been rubbed on your face by everyone who never looked at a chart, and that's a valid approach if you are 50, but we spend half of our days on the charts so we want to work based on charts and price, not on time.
My philosophy behind this is that, if our goal is maximizing profit while spreading entries evenly, we should aim to get the best entries, and how could time, which has nothing to do with price, dictate our entries?
It is quite literally putting your finger down randomly on the chart and choosing to enter there.
There is a way easier and more effective approach, and that's basing yourself on price by simply buying the dip.
Yes, I quite literally wrote all of this article just to tell you to buy the dips, but here's a little practical example on why buying the dip performs better than DCA and what values you could look for yourself to try to optimize your entries.
The most basic approach to DCA is to buy a set amount each month, for the sake of the example let's say you would have bought $1000 worth of shares every 30 days starting from Feb/2022, your entries would have been spread out randomly and you would end up with roughly $42.000 today, which would be more if you reinvested all the dividends and profits.
A better approach would be buying each time there is a dip of X percentage in price.
If during the same time we would have bought about 200$ every time price dipped 1.25% we would have made 192 entries and made around $51.000 without compounding interest and dividends, then that would be closer to 55.000 - 60.000.
All of this just by basing ourself on price and not time.
You wouldn't evaluate taste with sounds, or sounds with numbers... so why evaluate numbers with time? Rather stick to what the chart itself does and get the best spread out entries possible, like this not only you would make more money, but have way more entries spread out through the chart for about the same initial capital, which is not bad when you are planning to long term invest.
To wrap it up, my practical example is buying the S&P500 (or another index you like), every time price drops of 1.25% - 1.75% in a single day, and compound interest every time you get a entry. Like this you'll set yourself an long term investment fund that will grow exponentially through the years and help you more than save your money through the years.
As as we all know but not admit that spending comes easy when money is laying around, so stash the unnecessary and see it grow ;)
the numbers in the example are rough estimates but give the actual idea of performance, and excuse me for the simplicity of the argument but it always comes handy
$SPX Bounce to $6,050SPX will retrace to the $6,000 area following a massive move lower I will update soon.
S&P500 still has room to run to 7580S&P500 resistance is likely up near 7580. Expect a pullback and then new highs. Depending on the state of the economy we could have a larger recession. Or if all is good it'll be the next area for support. Just take caution when it gets there.
Good luck!
7-2 SP500: A Score of 2 gives our signal system for the S&P500 which means that this index is now indicated neutral. Made up of Cot Data 0, Retail sentiment 1,
Seasonality 2, Trend reading -1, GDP -1, Manufacturing PMI 1, Services PMI -1, Retail Sales -1, Inflation 1, Employment Change -1, Unemployment Rate 1, Interest Rates 1. We start with a trade at 6090 with a sl at 6227 and tp at 5953.
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Feb 7 20AMEX:SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Feb 7 2025
Alright, y’all, ATH’s are back in the trading range today.
We have a downtrend line off of ATH’s midway through the range and then ATH’s, and 6135 as the top of the implied move for the day.
Underneath we have the 35EMA -which we bounced on yesterday - and the 30min 200 for support.
Under all of that we have the 50 Day Moving average.
Easy Trading range today.
Bullish moving averages but they are close together and that means that could change.
My position - Delta Neutral Iron SPYDER 6024-6110 pays and I will hedge if either side gets challenged.
S & P BUY it after it brooked the London session lows there is a buy idea for s & p
we can enter the position after the 0830 news I believe that it first gonna break the lows of the London market the go to the liquidity upside
after the break of the London lows we search for a FVG and buy entry
sl : 4 point
tp : 6 point
NFP Incoming - Will SPX Smash 6100?NFP Incoming – Will SPX Smash 6100? | SPX Market Analysis 7 Feb 2025
The bulls keep charging as SPX edges closer to 6100. But with the NFP report dropping pre-market, things could get lively.
Will we blast through resistance or bounce back down? Expect some whipsaw chaos before the market settles – but with a bullish trend already in play, we should at least get one more push toward target exits before the dust settles.
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📈 Bullish Move On Track
SPX has ridden the momentum train all the way from the range lows to the range highs. Now, we’re staring at 6100, the key level where decisions will be made.
🚀 NFP Report – A Market Mover
Today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data drops just before the opening bell. This is one of the bigger monthly catalysts, meaning we could see:
A breakout past 6100 if the market likes the numbers.
A sharp rejection back into the range if traders get spooked.
A whipsaw shakeout, with wild swings before settling.
🔄 Short-Term Expectation? A Push Higher
Even if volatility kicks in, the existing bullish momentum should at least give us a final nudge up toward target exits. Whether we smash through 6100 or stall out, we’re in prime position to lock in profits.
⏳ The Good Kind of Waiting
Once again, we’re in a holding pattern, waiting for the market to tip its hand. But this is strategic patience – the kind where we’ve done the hard work and now simply let the market do its thing. The setups are in place – now, we sit back and watch the magic unfold.
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Fun Fact:
📢 Did you know? In 2010, a trader accidentally caused a $1 trillion stock market crash in just 36 minutes – all because of a fat-finger trade.
💡 The Lesson? One typo, one misclick, or one overleveraged position can cause chaos. Always double-check your trades, because even the pros have hit the wrong button before.
SPX500 H4 | Approaching all-time highSPX500 is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 6,128.66 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high.
Stop loss is at 6,195.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
Take profit is at 6,011.02 which is a swing-low support.
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Golden Pocket March Rally? Downside Gap Fill by 2/28? $SPYA break of the current High would invite a straight shot to the 1.61 Golden Pocket Above. Anything Below leaves room for Election Rally Gap Fill. Keep an eye on the fib. Don't try to be a HERO inside of the box. Wedge forming. March may lead to a large decline. Be wary.
Bullish continuation?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 6,034.09
1st Support: 5,984.27
1st Resistance: 6,125.76
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S&P 500 SELL ANALYSIS SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere on S&P 500 price has form a supply around level of 6096.15 is likely to continue falling and trader should go for short with expect profit target of 5976.83 and 5872.84 . Use money management
SPX?
www.tradingview.com
Looking for further upside
Next week will further confirm this theory.
The news seems inline with this bullishness.
Not a guru
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.7.2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🤝🇨🇦🇲🇽 Tariff Developments: The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on March 4, 2025, following a 30-day delay after negotiations.
🇺🇸📈🇨🇳 Tariffs on China: A 10% tariff on Chinese imports was implemented on February 4, 2025. In response, China has announced retaliatory tariffs ranging from 10% to 15% on select U.S. goods, effective February 10, 2025.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏢 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +165K | Previous: +150K
📉 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% | Previous: +0.2%
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: A further gap up may lead to a rejection back down into the 6041 area.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Expect slight morning choppiness, followed by a significant sell-off either in the early morning or afternoon, dropping into 6025 before bouncing to close above 6041.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Consolidate lower and then pump back higher than 6025; that's the flip level.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders Feb 6 2025SP:SPX Today’s Trading Range, y’all
Alright so options has today’s trading range quite small, just .66%. And these are the levels going through it. Those of you that have been following for a while know exactly how to read this so I’m going to leave it at that since I’m a little pressed for time this morning!!
Watch that 35EMA at the 30min 200MA, it could pull us down…
MY POSITION
IRON SPYDER @ 6005/6015/6050/6055/6090/6100
us 500 buy tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move.
SP500 weekly long+short setupA setup for the February pivots. targeting both upper and lower levels of the range. the range prices will square time on february 6.
