The LeapJust an idea I am working on…..
Here is an initial set of indicators that I have put together for a strategy. Try it out if you want.
SPX500USD trade ideas
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.5.2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
📊 Trade Balance: The U.S. trade deficit is expected to widen to $96.50 billion in December, up from $78.20 billion in November.
📈 Key Data Releases:
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 AM ET): 🏢 Forecast: 148K | Previous: 122K
Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): 🏭 Forecast: 52.8 | Previous: 56.8
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET): 📊 Forecast: 54.2 | Previous: 54.1
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: A further gap up will get a rejection below 6032.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Slight move higher as a continuation and drop down 1% off the HCZ.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Consolidate lower and pump back higher.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Feb 4 25Look at the difference here in SPX compared to SPY how the 30 minute 200 moving average was a resistance yesterday. So when in doubt choose SPX because SPY trades off of SPX so right now 30 minute two hundred moving average is right above us . just underneath that down gap and that 35 EMA is coming down and if it crosses underneath then we’ve gone on this timeframe it is possible today, look to the price underneath that we have the flat 50 day and one hour two hundred MAs so let’s see what happens. I have iron butterflies and iron condors here so the flat the better but I also have orders open if we do go to the edges.
U.S. Indices on the Brink: A 10-15% Market Correction Ahead?At Vital Direction, our Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, and Gann analysis suggests that the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and broader U.S. markets are approaching a major topping formation, setting the stage for a sharp 10-15% correction.
We anticipate this downturn to unfold between now and mid-April, with potential bottoming phases emerging either in early March or mid-April. From there, we expect a strong recovery, leading indices back to their all-time highs or near them by August to November 2025 before a massive reversal unfolds.
Investor Caution Advised!
Sentiment remains extremely bullish, but we urge traders to prepare for heightened volatility and downside risks in the short term. This could be a pivotal moment before the next major bullish phase!
Wall Street Rallies on Trade Optimism: $SPX Performance Wall Street Rallies on Trade Optimism: S&P 500 Performance Update 📈
1/9
The S&P 500 Index ( SP:SPX ) closed higher today, fueled by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Energy stocks led the charge, driven by rising oil prices and demand forecasts. 🔋📊
2/9
Energy Sector Surge: Energy stocks played a crucial role in today's SPX gains. Rising global demand and oil price increases are sparking investor confidence. 🚀 Is this trend sustainable?
3/9
Trade Optimism: President Trump's decision to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico boosted sentiment. However, new U.S. tariffs on China and China's retaliatory measures remain key risks. ⚖️ Trade talks are still a tightrope walk.
4/9
Corporate movers today:
PepsiCo and Estée Lauder fell after weak earnings forecasts. 📉
Palantir soared on a strong revenue outlook. 📈
Earnings season continues to shape sector performance!
5/9
Investors now await Alphabet's earnings, set to drop after market close. Tech giants like Alphabet can significantly impact SPX momentum in coming sessions. Will it be a bullish or bearish catalyst? 🕰️
6/9
Economic Context: The SPX's performance today highlights a market adapting to trade uncertainties. Investors are shifting their focus from immediate trade impacts to longer-term prospects. 💡
7/9
Looking Forward: Alphabet's earnings could either reinforce today's rally or inject new volatility into the market. Tech earnings remain a major influence on overall market sentiment. 🧮
8/9
Today's SPX rally is a reminder of the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors—trade policy, sector rotation, and earnings expectations are all in play. Are you positioned for these shifts? 📊
9/9
What’s your market outlook for the SPX this week? Vote now! 🗳️
SPX will continue rising 📈
Expect some volatility 🔄
Bearish pullback ahead 📉
SPX - do you really want to buy here ? 2022 all over again ?Looking at this SPX chart of 25 years and the MACD lines getting closer and closer I just can't see why to buy here except for short trades from one week to the next.
The MACD is ticking down and it could lead to another or even worse 2022.
We could get a blow-off top to 6300-6500, but looking at charts of big tech, Bitcoin, Gold and considering the uncertainty created by the new US administration, I am not seeing the sentiment for more bullishness. Might change over the next few days, who knows.
$SPX500 Technical Analysis: Divergence Signals and Key LevelsOANDA:SPX500USD
The SPX500 is currently displaying notable divergence on the daily timeframe chart, highlighting resistance near $6121 while the critical daily fractal support teeters at $5920.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support and Resistance Dynamics: The index faces significant resistance at $6121. Meanwhile, maintaining support above $5920 is crucial to sustain current bullish sentiment.
Confirmation of Support Breakdown: A decisive drop below $5920 would signal a potential retest of the weekly fractal support at $5776. This level's breach would confirm a false breakout above resistance, potentially leading to further downside for the index.
Potential Downside Targets: If the SPX500 extends its decline below $5776, attention should shift to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, projecting a deeper correction towards $5557. This scenario sets the stage for a potential bullish shark pattern formation near the golden Fibonacci extension level.
Technical Patterns: Previously identified patterns include a bearish deep crab around $6042, suggesting possible downside targets around $5737, near the .382% Fibonacci retracement level. A subsequent bullish shark pattern aligns with the .50% Fibonacci retracement level, reinforcing a critical zone for potential reversals.
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
S&P500 4H Bullish Cross signals rally to 6200.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been consolidating within a Rectangle pattern, which is coming out a MA100/200 Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame. The identical consoliation phase of July - August 2024 bottomed right after such Bullish Cross and then rebounded towards the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level before pulling back to the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) again.
With the 1D MACD about to confirm the bottom with a Bearish Cross similar to September 04 2024, we expect a strong rally to start by the end of the week and target 6200 (just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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SPX500 Will Move Higher! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,976.37.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 6,081.10.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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4-2 US500:Trade war puts pressure on US currencies and stocks. Especially now that China is hitting back hard with taxes on US goods. This should have a negative effect on this index. We have a sell at 5917.0.
Rate Cuts Coming Up?Simply put, yes , the Fed has appeared to switch its position on the FRED:FEDFUNDS remaining flat and are expecting further rate cuts. So what can we hypothesize the market's reaction will be? Well, you guessed it, the market will probably like the news and cash will flow into "risk-on" assets including crypto assets and, of course, stocks. Furthermore, we can infer that the market is not currently pricing in any rate cuts and we have yet to see a TRUE correction specifically in the TVC:DJI , TVC:NDQ , and the $SP:SPX.
The image above shows an example of the 200 EMA significance and how it can be used to buy the dip at the right timing. PLEASE do not try to buy each top and bottom as it's virtually impossible to perfectly time the market. However, it should be suggested that you buy the day after the underlying bounces off the EMA. This is the most effective way to avoid a "fake out" in the trend. When this EMA it touched and rebounded, it could imply that a correction has taken place and that momentary downtrend is about to reverse to continue its previous bull trend. This could look as shown below.
Just because it is shown on the chart doesn't make it so. Please keep in mind an equal and opposite possibility, where the EMA is broken through and a Bear market begins. Even though the odds for this are less than likely, the market simply not getting a rate cut could lead to this situation becoming a reality. In this market, nothing is impossible so be ready for everything.
In conclusion, prepare for rate cut from not only the Fed, but ECB, and Bank of England as well. With this, we can expect rising markets as cash moves its way into risk assets. However, no one is a visionary, so if the markets don't get what they want (and we all know that it wants rate cuts more than anything), expect a lowering market and prepare to exit positions until a rebound appears reasonable.
NAS 100/SPX 500you can see liquidty on both pairs you had a nice sweep and bullish structure and its also been holding. which ever one gets to the zone last is the one i want to buy and also looking at US30 to sweep
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.4.2025🔮
📅 Tue, Feb 4
🌎 Market-Moving News:
📢 Tariffs in Focus: 🇺🇸🔁🇨🇦 U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico, 10% on China, while Canada retaliates with 25% tariffs on U.S. goods.
🏦 Central Banks: 📉🇪🇺 ECB cuts rates to support growth, while 📈🇯🇵 BOJ hikes rates, signaling diverging global monetary policies.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📉 JOLTS Job Openings (10 AM ET): Forecast 8.68M (Prev. 8.75M)
🏭 Factory Orders (10 AM ET): Forecast +0.2% (Prev. -0.7%)
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: Initial push higher before rejecting below 6044, leading to consolidation.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Rebound attempt, but potential rejection back into the Equity Equilibrium Zone, causing choppy action.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Early dip, potential bounce, but structure favors continued weakness before stabilization.
#trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao 🚀
S&P500 1 month rally ahead. Target 6300.The S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up since mid July 2024.
Today's downside gap opening tested the 1day MA100 for the 2nd time in 2 weeks and buying pressure immediately kicked in.
The 1day MACD pattern is identical to the September 06 2024 1day MA100 rebound. This ended up with a rally to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension.
Buy and for the next 30 days at least target 6300 (1.786 Fib).
Previous chart:
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us500 buyhello friends
Considering the rise we had, now with the failure of trading range, we can enter into a transaction with capital management...
*Trade safely with us*
Two Daily Gaps attract market for pullbackAlthough S&P500 is within uptrend, recent days has left two clearly visible gaps behind. That means that it is highly possible that SPX will come back to cover those gaps in the near future, before it continue uptrend (if it will). Same picture at NDX chart with two 4H gaps.
I take this idea to apply to all markets including crypto. While chances to resume higher timeframe uptrend are valid for Bitcoin, Stock Indices will most probably influence it's short term price action.
ShortThe price has reached a high of 6,111.68 and is now showing a downward movement. If the pivot point is broken or the price falls below 5,989.84, the market is expected to continue to decline. The maximum values are between 5,859.75 and 5,688.22.
$SPX Trading Range for Jan 3 2025All right same thing over here as in SPY this trading range is based on the one standard standard deviation movement off of Friday’s close
We gapped down underneath the downward facing one hour 200 moving average into the up gap from January 17 which was a previous support on January 27. Now we are underneath it. We’re making lower lows and we also gapped underneath the 30 minute two hundreds moving average and the 50 day moving average so look to those levels as resistance for now. Below us we have an island gap that needs to be filled and it’s really close. I wouldn’t be surprised if we head there next .
US500 Trade insight Price breaks above December high 6102.21 so I believe we are currently on a retracement to 5901.87 for continuing to the upside.
If the ISM manufacturing PMI news happening at 10:00 UTC-5 NY push proce to my POI then I'll stick to my buy bias but if it pushes price to the upside without getting to my point of interest then I might look for a short sell from 6024.40 down to my Poi for buy.
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Trump’s Trade War Risks Throwing Markets into Chaos. TARIFFic?Apparently, Trump has slapped Mexico, Canada and China with hefty tariffs. Now all these three are either already retaliating with their own levies on US goods or getting ready to do so. The complex interplay of back-and-forth tariffs risks turning friends into foes and driving up prices. All the while the end consumer is likely to cover the difference.
President Donald Trump on Saturday actually went ahead and did what he wanted to do. He launched the game of tariffs. He hit Mexico, Canada and China with hefty import duties, threatening to throw the world’s trade into a spiral of ill intentions, retaliations and higher prices for your Stanley cups and iPhones.
The looming destabilization is already coming from both ends — Canada swiftly imposed 25% levies on roughly $20 billion of US goods coming into the country on Tuesday. Another $85 billion worth of goods are getting the same treatment within the next three weeks.
China, where nearly everything you get your hands on is made, said it will “take necessary countermeasures to defend its rights and interests.”
Trump’s new order requires Canada and Mexico to pay 25% tariffs on imports to the US (with a partial carve out for Canada’s energy and oil exports — 10% levies apply there). The US President was gearing up for a 60% tariff rate on China while he was running for office but said he’s imposing a 10% tariff that will likely get higher in time.
These three countries in 2023 collectively accounted for about 40% of all US imports. That year, the US imported about $3.85 trillion worth of goods. In November 2024, the US pulled in about $351 billion worth of stuff and then sold it to Americans.
What are tariffs and who pays them?
At the basic level, tariffs are a way for an economy to protect itself from foreign competition. Through tariffs, domestic businesses are somewhat shielded from outside interference and can snatch up a bigger portion of the local market.
Tariffs are just taxes placed on products that are made overseas and then imported to the country. Here’s the kicker: the foreign companies that make these goods and then import them aren’t on the hook for paying the tariffs — American businesses are.
Tech companies like Apple AAPL , which makes about 95% of its stuff in China, or Tesla TSLA , which makes half of its cars in China, will end up paying more for their products as they come into the US. Who’s collecting that import duty? The US government.
What could happen when these tariffs get cracking?
The US consumer will most likely cover the difference. Nearly every product will be affected — from cars to baby toys to the already expensive eggs (can egg prices get even higher?)
Here’s an example: potash, the product that’s used by US farmers as fertilizer, just got 25% more expensive. That extra cost, paid by the farmers, is likely to trickle down to the end consumer so farmers could keep trucking and produce at the same rates.
What could happen to the stock market?
One thing is certain — the companies that don’t pass on the added cost to the consumer will see their corporate profits dwindle. But if they want to keep generating value for shareholders, they’ll need to pass it forward to the end user. With the first quarter now well under way, the next earnings season will be a sight to see. (Friendly reminder to keep an eye on the economic calendar for all corporate earnings and updates.)
An analysis from Barclays estimates that all S&P 500 companies could see their profits shrink by 2.8% once the tariffs get in full flow.
Perhaps a bigger, scarier fallout is possible. Inflation can perk up again. Inevitably, the higher costs across the border risk undoing what the Federal Reserve was doing to combat inflation.
Goldman Sachs came out with the forecast that the looming tariffs could have an initial knock on effect on inflation to the tune of 0.7% to the upside. Gross domestic product could drop 0.4%.
And most of all, there’s one thing investors fear the most. Rising inflation could bring back interest rate hikes. A revival in consumer prices might prompt the Federal Reserve to walk back its intentions of more interest rate cuts and lean against the economy by raising borrowing costs.
There are early signs of this already. Fed chief Jay Powell last week said the central bank is in a wait-and-see phase as Trump’s policies unfurl.
The scary tariffs already knocked the wind out of stocks and crypto. Monday morning saw one of its worst openings in years, especially for Ethereum ETHUSD . The second-largest coin fell as much as 27% from the get-go as the bullish sentiment was nowhere to be seen.
Bitcoin BTCUSD also got a slap losing 6% in its first deals to settle near $91,000 before paring back some of the drop. And stock futures were looking at steep declines with Dow futures DJI shedding as much as 700 points ahead of the opening bell in New York. The only winner was the US dollar DXY , which stands to gain popularity in a high-tariff environment.
Until now, the market has been overwhelmingly on Trump’s side. He stepped into the White House riding on the promises of a strong economy and booming business. But if he takes aim (even indirectly) at shareholders’ profits, he might end up losing the support of all those billionaire executives who worked hard to get him elected.
What do you think? Is Trump acting in the best interest of America or is he driving markets into a ditch? Share your thoughts below!
SP500 is bullish despite TARIFF FUD!I remain highly bullish on the stock market despite the ongoing tariff FUD. Wave 2 has retraced perfectly to key Fibonacci levels, forming a flat correction pattern. Following this consolidation, I anticipate Wave 3 to ignite a strong rally to the upside.
Markets Meltdown - Trade War Fallout BeginsMarkets Meltdown - Trade War Fallout Begins? | SPX Market Analysis 3 Feb 2025
Ahoy there Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Markets are waking up in full meltdown mode, all thanks to weekend tariff mayhem and rising tensions throwing a wrench into global trade. SPX futures are deep in the red, but that’s not necessarily bad news if you’re positioned right!
With bear swings already paying out big and bull swings needing some management, the real question is—do we get follow-through selling, or is this just another knee-jerk overreaction?
Let's dig in!
SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
🔥 Trade War Whiplash Hits Markets Hard
The overnight futures carnage was triggered by new tariff disruptions, retaliatory measures, and escalating trade war tensions—all set to take effect on Tuesday. The global market reaction was swift and brutal.
SPX Futures: Hit a low of -120 points before bouncing to -80 points (-1.3%).
Similar Pattern to Last Monday: Another huge gap down breaking out of last week’s range.
Bearish Follow-Through or Bullish Bounce? Watching for a continuation lower or a bounce.
💰 Trade Plan: Profits on Bear Swings, Managing the Bullish Side
Friday’s range reversal gave us an edge before the market even opened:
✅ Bear swings from Friday = Near-maximum gains at the open.
✅ Rolling the bull swing may be required—assessing once we see price action.
✅ Large gap downs = Risky entries—patience required before placing fresh trades.
⏳ Key Levels to Watch
📌 Gap Fill Potential: Do we snap back into the prior range or confirm a deeper decline?
📌 Early Flush or Fakeout Rally? Let the first 30-60 minutes set the tone before making big moves.
📌 Fast Forward Group Call Strategy: Real-time assessment of market direction at the open.
For now, the plan is patience and precision—we wait for confirmation before making the next move.
Fun Fact:
📉 The Worst Market Drop from Tariff Wars? In 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act triggered a global trade collapse, slashing world exports by 66% and worsening the Great Depression.
Lesson Learned?
Tariffs are rarely good news for markets. Every major tariff war in history has caused volatility, market corrections, or outright crashes. Whether today’s chaos is temporary or the start of something bigger remains to be seen!
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
