SPY and QQQ today drop is a 3 wave decline for abc wave 4One last rally to 546 to 547 in qqq and in the spy 515/517 today is minor wave 4 of 5 of 5 one last up into friday close Best of trades WAvetimer
SPX500USD trade ideas
SPX at CrossRoadThe chart illustrates the logarithmic scale of the S&P 500 index since 1933. From 1933 to 1997, the index consistently followed an upward-sloping channel. Key years such as 1942, 1949, 1974, and 1982 saw the index test the lower boundary of this channel. However, since 2009, following the introduction of quantitative easing (QE), the uptrend has shifted to a steeper slope.
With the Federal Reserve hesitant to lower interest rates and the forces of de-globalization gaining momentum, the question arises: Can artificial intelligence (AI) emerge as the savior, propelling the S&P 500 to new highs? Or will the growing debt burden, combined with tighter monetary policies and the effects of de-globalization, finally break the index's back?
What are your thoughts? Please share.
I believe interest rates will continue to climb as investors demand higher premiums to compensate for heightened risks in the debt market. This could exert considerable pressure on stocks.
Spx looking bearish It’s looking like Spx will be selling off into March. Time to capitalize on a volatile market.
ShortShort
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice.
S&P 500 - What after 6010 – Key GDP Data in FocusS&P 500 (SPX500) Analysis – February 27, 2025
The S&P 500 has declined to 5937, as expected , after rejecting the 6010 pivot zone. Market sentiment remains mixed following Nvidia’s earnings, which were neither overly bullish nor bearish, while investors now shift focus to today’s GDP release:
If GDP comes in below 2.3%, a bullish reaction is likely.
A stronger-than-expected GDP could reinforce downside pressure on indices.
Technical Outlook
📉 Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price remains below 6010, the downtrend remains active, with the next key support at 5979 and 5937.
A 1H or 4H candle close below 5937 would accelerate the decline toward 5920.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A break and 1H or 4H close above 6010 would indicate a bullish shift, targeting 6031.
Stability above 6031 would strengthen momentum toward 6055 and 6086.
⚠️ Market Impact:
GDP data will drive today’s market movement—watch for increased volatility.
Key Levels to Watch
🔸 Resistance: 6031 | 6068 | 6102
🔹 Pivot: 6010
🔻 Support: 5979 | 5952 | 5920
📉 Directional Bias: Bearish below 6010, but a confirmed break above 6010 could trigger a bullish shift.
SPX: another not-happy FridayMarkets have been playing a bit of a ping-pong game since the start of the year. Uncertainty is never a good world for financial markets, so it was this Friday. In the same week, the S&P 500 reached a fresh, new all time highest level at 6.148 and a significant pull-back on Friday. One of the extremely spooky works since recently are tariffs, which a new US Administration is using too frequently, for the taste of investors. The S&P 500 lost 1,71% at Friday's trading session, while other US indices were also somewhere in this range. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was published during the week, showing not some happy figures about current consumer sentiment. In addition, consumers are expecting further increase in inflation, higher from previous releases. The 5 years inflation expectations currently stands at 3,5%, for which analysts are noting, is the highest level since 1995.
The highest contributors to index drop on Friday were tech companies, which are currently ones which hold the highest participation. Other sectors were also affected, however, those related to major supplies were the ones that gained during the week. The consumer sector, healthcare and utilities were the ones that investors bought the most. It was sort of a move toward basics. As analysts are noting, the defensive sectors are the ones which gain during times of fears on future economic growth.
The week ahead will be a sensitive one for financial markets, as PCE data are scheduled for a release. The start of the week might bring some relaxation from Friday's negative sentiment, however, it will not be a sign that the positive sentiment is back, but only a sort of short term positioning for PCE data. Depending on final PCE data, a higher move could be expected toward either side. The higher market sensitivity will continue as long as uncertainties are existing either through trade tariffs, or through inflation data.
S&P500 - The 2025 Bullrun Just Started!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) will rally massively during 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of years, the S&P500 has perfectly been respecting the trendlines of a rising channel formation. After the recent rally of +70%, it is quite likely that - following the 2020 cycle - we will see another final rally of about +20% before the S&P500 will correct itself.
Levels to watch: $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SP500 | Pivot Zone Retest – Will the Support Hold?S&P 500 Analysis | February 21, 2025
The price is currently consolidating within the pivot zone (6,102 - 6,143), which is acting as a key level.
🔹 A break below 6,102 will confirm a bearish move toward 6,031 and 5,979, continuing the downward trend.
🔹 If the price stabilizes above 6,143, we may see an attempt to break toward 6,168 and 6,224 as the next resistance zone.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 6128
Resistance: 6143 - 6168 - 6224
Support: 6102 - 6079 - 6031 -
S&P 500 - Ending Diagonal Triangle - February 2025The S&P 500 (SPX) could be nearing completion of an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT) that began after the 11/04/24 bottom. This formation is the terminal phase of a larger degree trend.
Price frequently throws over the trendline connecting the peaks of the third and first waves. In this case the target zone is SPX 6,145 to 6,165.
Time zone for a top is 02/18/25 to 02/20/25.
Its rare for U.S. stocks to peak in February. The last time this occurred was just before the 2020 covid crash. The SPX peak was made on 02/19/20.
Its possible another SPX February top could be made almost exactly five years after 02/19/20.
Possible Completion of this stage of drop.We have a nice 5 leg drop so far and now we're current threatening the double bottom.
If we fail to make a new low today I think we'll trade 6080 again.
Picked up longs and lotto calls today.
Would love to see this bounce for a short.
Out my shorts accumulated during the drop.
S&P500 Index Goes 'Floundering', ahead of Bearish HarvestWhile the S&P 500 is generally expected to perform well in 2025, with forecasts suggesting gains ranging from 9% to 14.7% depending on the source, there are several factors that could lead to a less favorable performance or even a decline:
High Valuations: The S&P 500 is currently trading at high valuations, with a P/E multiple of 22 times projected earnings, which is above historical averages. This elevated valuation increases the risk of market downturns if there are negative economic shocks.
Economic Uncertainties: The economic landscape is filled with uncertainties, including potential inflation increases and geopolitical tensions. These factors can impact investor confidence and lead to market volatility.
Interest Rates and Bond Yields: Higher bond yields can reduce the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds, potentially leading to a decline in stock prices.
Earnings Growth Expectations: While earnings are expected to grow, there is a risk that actual growth may not meet these expectations, which could negatively impact the market.
Policy Risks: Changes in trade policies, such as tariffs, and shifts in fiscal policy could also affect the market's performance.
Historical Patterns: Achieving three consecutive years of high returns (above 20%) is rare for the S&P 500, suggesting that 2025 might not see such strong gains.
Overall, while there are positive forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2025, these potential risks could lead to a less robust performance or even a decline if they materialize.
// While salmon make up the bulk of their diet, Coastal Brown Bears also enjoy a fresh flounder now, and again.
Best wishes,
PandorraResearch Team 😎
S&P500 Remarkable 16year Time Cycles call the Top and CorrectionThe S&P500 index (SPX) just made a new All Time High (ATH) and even though it hasn't picked up the pace since the initial very aggressive post-elections rally, it is entering a bullish phase.
In fact that is technically the last rally phase of the Bull Cycle that started at the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis in October 2022. The reason behind this is the index' very reliable and consistent Time Cycle pattern that is repeated over and over again within the 16-year Channel Up that had been holding since the bottom of the 2009 Housing Crisis.
As you can see on this remarkable trading blue-print, ever since the index recovered the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into its long-term Support, strong Cycles of Growth (Bullish Leg) and correction (Bearish Leg) phases became the norm.
Using the 1M RSI specific overbought pattern, we can see that from those points onwards, the Bull Cycle usually took around 12 months before it topped (Higher High on the Channel Up) and then corrected.
This suggests that by September 2025 we may have a new peak and it would be a good idea to have sold stock investments by then. The first two 12-month rallies (2014, 2018) posted +22.10% increases while the third (2021) posted +27.80%.
As a result this gives us a potential range of 6800 - 7200 within which selling should occur, in preparation for the 2026 correction.
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Possible long on spx????As we can see in the chart, the price is still floating around the support line and around the trendline. Therefore we have 2 big support levels. SP:SPX
SPX: Long-Term Fibonacci ChannelsAfter encountering old chart, I though to redefine some coordinates.
It played out well, however I would like to experiment using actual chart-based extremes to predefine levels.
Measuring historic market's most significant HH & LL with fibonacci channels to project psychological levels into the future. Logarithmic scale is a must for this type of analysis.
Fibonacci Channels:
Using bottoms for direction: Oct '74 & Mar '09 (complete cycles); 3rd point mapping extreme Mar '00 Top for a range.
Direction: Mar '09 bottom & Covid bottom; relating to Jan '22 top to define more relevant range.
Using multiple Fibonacci channels enhances trend analysis by providing a broader perspective on price movements. This approach identifies key price levels, confluence zones, and trend strength more effectively. However, it’s important to avoid overcomplicating the chart by focusing on the most relevant channels that align with the overall market direction.
Shorting the S&P at 6000We previously picked the turning point of the S&P at the all time high.
We now expect this to continue with the downtrend as it approaches the strong 6000 resistance.
1) There is pattern
2) H4 and D1 are down
3) M15 is overbought, awaiting divergence
We target the low of 5915 which will give a 1:2.5 R:R
Market SnapshotI really wonder how 1600 Pennsylvania Ave is going to explain away what happens later this year and into the next
This is not good people...this is not good
SPX500 : Important support for purchaseshello friends
Considering the drop we had, now we can buy step by step on the specified supports in the low time with risk and capital management...
*Trade safely with us*
SPX S&P 500 Short term Bearish ? Retracement ?SP:SPX SP:SPX S&P 500
Is it Chart look good for Retracement purpose get shorts for 50% Fib Support ?
Chart lovers know the wonder fibo levels especially in Index.
is it Real time charts invisible ? Trust Your process stick with plan and play it.!
SPX500USD Will Go Higher! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,987.7.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,125.2 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P500 Is Nearing The Daily TrendHey Traders. in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5850 zone, S&P500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5850 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
SPX Distribution day? I made an analysis on the SPX chart, and will be cautious about the latest index movement.
I’ve been studying the SPX chart since the bull run began in October 2023, and the recent daily candlestick action with rising volume is concerning. Over the last 1.5 years, I identified five major distribution days. In the previous four, we didn’t see a follow-up surge in volume despite the price dropping below the 50-day SMA, nor did we see divergences in S5FI (S&P 500 trading above their 50-day simple moving average) or S5TH (S&P 500 trading above their 200-day SMA).
However, from late December until now, SPX hasn’t made a higher high and seems stuck in a range. Over the last four sessions, all red candles showed increasing volume, each surpassing the 50-day average volume. I also see a divergence in S5FI and S5TH since September, which could signal either a simple bull-run pullback or a larger correction.
For now, I’m sitting on cash, monitoring potential catalysts, and ready to initiate a small short position if more bearish signals appear.
SPX500 Holds Key Support – Bullish Bounce or More Downside?📉 S&P 500 (SPX500) Analysis – February 28, 2025 📉
The S&P 500 has dropped -2.8% to 5,856, as expected , after rejecting the 6,010 pivot zone.
📌 Today's Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: S&P 500 is showing bullish momentum after stabilizing above the pivot zone (5,879 - 5,856), which acts as a key daily support area. As long as the price trades above this zone, it is likely to push up toward 5,898 and 5,920, with consolidation expected between 5,879 – 5,920.
Bearish Scenario: A 4H candle close below 5,856 would confirm a bearish shift, targeting 5,826 and potentially 5,792 as the next downside levels.
📊 Key Levels to Watch:
🔸 Resistance: 5,898 | 5,920 | 5,960
🔹 Pivot: 5,880
🔻 Support: 5,856 | 5,792 | 5,765
🚀 Will SPX500 hold above support, or is another drop coming? Share your thoughts! 👇🔥
Hidden positive divergence on S&P 500Hidden positive divergence on 1d and 1w + bottom of the channel. Should make a big bounce soon. Valid as long as the price doesn't update January 13-14 low.
