Approaching Death Cross!When the 50 – day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crosses below the 200 – day SMA it’s called a “Death Cross” and frequently signals additional selling.
The S&P 500 (SPX) is close to a Death Cross!
SPX500USD trade ideas
S&P 500: The Correction Is Not Over Yet – Targets Around 5000At the moment, the S&P 500 is holding relatively stable, but I believe the current decline is just part of a larger correction following decades of growth.
Right now, the index is retracing to the 50% pullback area (marked on the chart), which aligns with a typical retest before a potential continuation of the downward move. In this zone, a manipulation is likely, after which the decline may resume.
An additional confirmation of this scenario is the unfilled gap below, which remains uncovered. Historically, the market tends to close such gaps. Moreover, there are untested price levels lower on the chart, suggesting a high probability of further downside movement, with targets around 5000 points.
I will keep monitoring the situation and update my outlook as new data emerges.
SP500 - Long Strategy with FED effectI think that FED can give a pump to SP500, probably we will go directly to first 2 target than we can have a retest of support area. In any case there is a volume pressure under this price level so is aspected a long wave.
Trading a Pause in the Price Action
Some candlestick patterns shout their intentions, while others quietly mark a pause before the next move. The Doji falls into the latter category—it doesn’t tell you which way the market is going next, but it does highlight a moment of indecision that often precedes a meaningful move.
While traders sometimes mistake it for a reversal signal, the real significance of a Doji comes when price decisively breaks beyond its range. Let’s explore what a Doji represents, why its range is key and how traders can use it in different market conditions.
What Is a Doji?
A standard Doji forms when a market opens and closes at or very near the same price. This creates a candle with a thin or non-existent body and wicks on either side, showing that price moved up and down during the session but failed to establish a clear direction by the close.
The key takeaway? A Doji does not indicate a directional bias—it simply reflects the natural market cycle between indecision and decisive direction. It tells us that neither buyers nor sellers had the upper hand during that period.
Standard Doji Pattern
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The Doji’s Range: Why It’s Important
Rather than trading the Doji itself, the focus should be on its high and low. When price breaks and closes beyond the Doji’s range, that’s when a potential trade setup forms:
• A close above the Doji’s high suggests buyers have taken control, increasing the likelihood of further upside.
• A close below the Doji’s low signals sellers are in charge, making downside continuation more probable.
This makes the Doji a pattern that doesn’t rely on lagging indicators. It provides a forward-looking view, allowing traders to anticipate where momentum might emerge.
A single Doji can be significant, but clusters of Doji candles—where price hesitates over multiple sessions—can create even stronger setups, particularly when they resolve with a decisive breakout.
Doji’s Range Becomes Significant
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Doji Breakout
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
How to Use the Doji in Trading
The Doji pattern works across all timeframes, from intraday charts to daily and even weekly price action. Looking at USD/JPY on the daily timeframe (see chart below), four Doji formations highlight how the pattern plays out in real-world trading:
USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Pattern 1 (Monday, 25th November 2024): A Doji formed, followed by a strong break below its range, leading to a clear move lower.
Patterns 2 & 3 (Early December 2024): Two Doji candles appeared close together, forming a Doji cluster. This hesitation phase was followed by a steady directional move higher.
Pattern 4 (Early February 2025): The initial break below the Doji’s range led to a short-lived move lower. However, price then pulled back, retested the Doji, and only after that retest did a more sustained downside move develop.
These examples show that the Doji is not a trading signal in isolation—it needs a decisive break to confirm the next move.
Trading the Doji Breakout
If a trader is looking to enter based on a Doji setup, they should consider the following:
• Wait for Confirmation – The most important factor is the breakout. A Doji on its own is just indecision; it’s the next candle that provides the real clue.
• Identify the Key Level – The high and low of the Doji form a mini-range. A close outside this range is the real signal.
• Manage Risk Properly – A common approach is to place a stop-loss just beyond the opposite side of the Doji’s range.
Because Doji candles highlight hesitation, they often form at key support or resistance levels. When price is already in an established trend, a Doji can act as a temporary pause before continuation.
Summary:
The Doji is a pause in price action, not a guarantee of reversal or continuation. The real significance lies in how price reacts after the Doji forms—a decisive break and close beyond its range is the key trigger.
While traders often focus on patterns that appear to provide clear direction, the Doji offers something different—it marks the moment before clarity emerges. Whether it leads to a breakout, a trend continuation, or a reversal depends entirely on the price action that follows.
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Still more upside for SPX500USDHi traders,
SPX500USD did exactly what I've predicted.
Last week I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what we will be the move after that.
But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair. This scenario is still in progress for next week.
So let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Setting Up for a Breakout – But Not Before One More TrapAs I’ve said before, the FOREXCOM:SPX500 is a key reference for my crypto trading . That’s why I sat down and took a closer look at the chart – and I’m now ready to place a limit order , based on what I’m seeing.
I believe we’re still in a correction phase , and it’s far from over . However, I think it’s realistic that we’ll see a move toward $5,832 next week . Before that happens, I expect either today’s Monday Low or next week’s Previous Weekly Low to get swept, ideally triggering a dip into the 12-hour Fair Value Gap just below.
That’s where I see my entry zone forming. It’s also the exact area where Wave B overshoots the starting point of Wave ABC, making it a clean Flat correction pattern, with Wave C completing to the downside before we get a solid move upward.
I’m setting my stop-loss below the $5,500 low. If this setup plays out, I expect the S&P to push toward $5,832 , and after that, I’m anticipating a larger correction that could take the index back down to $5,500 or even $5,450 over the coming weeks.
Timing remains unclear for that move after, but the structure is here , and I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
S&P 500. First 5 waves upIm aiming for this. First need to see the 5 waves to the upside. Then draw fib tool over all the 5 waves and buy at the 0.5 or 0.382 fib to go op more. Trade save
Buy SnP500Ready to Rally? I think so.
My best trading strategy is to follow the big money—to follow the actions of the market conductor. Right now, I see buying activity in the market and believe this idea has strong potential.
This is a med-term trade, so size your position wisely to avoid overloading your portfolio with a single trade. There are and will be plenty of great opportunities in the market. Give this position the time and space to realize its full potential.
Exact targets are unknown.
The best way to proceed here is by using a trailing stop-loss.
The first Stop Loss is set at 5495.
As the asset rises. move the stop loss higher.
Take ProfitsIf you took the trade, good job.
We are at the 200 SMA, and this is a natural location to take profits.
Expecting some additional chop, the market never moves in a straight line... but the worst of it is over. If we retest the lows, I will buy again. If we retest the highs... or take too long... I will monitor for a new short.
Will the spring & summer of 2025 conclude our retrace in minor BIn the interest of full disclosure we have not even confirmed our minor A has in fact bottomed...but assuming we have struck a short term bottom, we are now embarking on a minor B wave retrace that I anticipate taking us into the start of summer.
In any respect, I am viewing this as only a counter trend rally with a scary (c) of C of (A) to come into the low SPX 5,000 region eventually. There everything gets decided for the long-term.
Be careful out there.
Chris
US500 Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,754.53.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,665.70 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P 500 ,,, End of correctionUptrend
Based on my strategy, the corrective wave appears to have terminated with today's daily candle. Notably, a descending trend line and a major level have been broken. If today's daily candle had no upper shadow, I would consider taking buying positions.
Pre-dump Stop Hunt Seems Likely HereMy previous forecast into the high of the rally was for a capitulation from the high, no major retracement in the drop and then once we broke the low - slam to 5500.
This trade went well in the first stages. Top where it was expected. Sell off in the style expected. New low as expected - but there has yet to be a big follow through.
This failed follow through (even although we are still sitting at the lows right now) makes me worry about the different trap variants of the break I expect.
Here's the setup I am looking at. It's a bullish butterfly-like pattern off the high.
I say butterfly-like because it doesn't perfectly fit the rules. C is a new high, for one. But I find this general M type of shape is useful for spotting lows or breaks. I tend to bracket all these things under a "butterfly". I know it's a misterm as per the books, but it serves the purpose I am using it for.
Three main things can happen off a butterfly decision. One is the 1.61 breaks and we slam to 2.20. This was the OG forecast of 5500. This is the rarer of the outcomes but it happens so fast there's not time to deal with it - which is why I planned and positioned for this into the rally high.
Second thing that can happen it a low. Butterfly can work. All can be well with the world. For a few reasons I don't think that's happening but it's a risk to be aware of. This could be a low.
Finally, we have the dead cat and break pattern - the one that is the primary plan for now if we make the bounce.
Here's an example of one of those.
Notice how this trades under the support and then puts in a series of small spike out candles - then it makes the bull trap. Stalls a while and then the next break is the actionable one.
Look at this little zone - we game this zone on both sides before the move.
These look similar.
If the break does not come now I think we'll see a bull trap atypical to the previous ones in that is moderately breaks the lower highs we've seen in all the previous rallies. Giving bears good reason to puke their positions and bulls good reason to think the low is in. Barcode there for a while and then setup the bigger trade.
Ideally here I'd like to make a little money in the rally. Use this to bankroll my speculative OTM puts.
Breaks lower are liable to cause an instant pivot to the plan for the run away break - but this bull trap move would be far more befitting of a pre-crash move I think.
It really does feel a little too easy right now. Would be so many fewer bears if we made that little spike and stuck stubbornly at the high of it for a while.
I've been hitting every rally in SPX since 6150. Done a lot of offloading of my positions yesterday and anything I am holding I have hedged with 580 calls.
We may be very close, within months, of a real break - but we might have a big distraction rally to come first.
No one has called me names for being a bear of late ... concerning. A good bounce would fix that.
SPX Present Day vs. 21-22 Price PathTVC:SPX
An interesting chart setup into next week (close underneath the broadening pattern), and current price action overlaid with the 2021-2022 price path for an idea of where price might go.
Goodluck!
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the course of this week's trading session, the S&P 500 achieved the designated target for the Inner Index Rally at 5576, which occurred midweek. This target was accompanied by considerable volatility, ultimately hindering upward movement. On the week's final trading day, the index experienced a notable decline, resulting in a significant drop that reached our critical target, Mean Support, at 5603.
Consequently, the index is now poised to target a retest of the Inner Index Rally level 5712, with a subsequent potential target identified at the Mean Resistance level 5840. It is essential to consider that upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target of 5712, a decrease in the current price level is anticipated, which may lead to a retest of the Mean Support at 5601. Furthermore, an extended decline is possible to revisit the completed Outer Index Dip at 5520 before the resumption of an upward rally.
S&P500 Next Key Levels I will be waiting to see if we get some short term buying before continuing down to $5,200 levels.
Waiting for price to reach the $5,800 area and anticipating a strong rejection to continue the bearish trend.
After confirmation of the rejection, I will be looking for simple lower lows, lower highs before entering a sell, preferably around the $5,600 mark.
What are your thoughts on the AMEX:SPY and the THINKMARKETS:USDINDEX in general?
S&P 500 Below 200-Day Average: Double Top Targets 5400I wrote before about the S&P 500 when it was at its peak, showing that "head and shoulders" pattern, and it hit its target. Now, the index has been tradin’ below the 200-day moving average for 10 sessions and is strugglin’ to get back above it. There’s also a "double top" pattern formin’, targetin’ around the 5400 level. Next week’s gonna be big—needs to climb back above that 200-day average, or the odds of more downside are gonna go up. And that 5400 level might not be the final stop, ‘cause there are other patterns that ain’t done yet. Once it hits that level, they’ll complete and signal even lower targets.
SP500Bearish ABCD is forming which shows that if this patteren b point is break then sellstop order will be execute and stoploss will be point c and TP is at D Point . This point is very crucial due to lot of conflunces here so if sustain this point it will be a potential reversal point looking for long open position
Bullish momentum to extend?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 5,671.90
1st Support: 5,599.90
1st Resistance: 5,843.10
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SPX us500The index has a target price range of 5991, there is a possibility of going up from this moment, but another possibility is that the range of 5520 will be touched and then it will move up.
Stock Market Hits Extreme Oversold Levels — Rebound Already ...Trump tariffs and other geopolitical events triggered a market correction.
But in the bigger picture, this noise means very little.
Mathematical models and indicators are pointing to extreme oversold levels.
If a recession hasn't started yet — this could be a great opportunity.
Even if it has already begun, strong bounces from current levels are possible across many stocks.
In fact, some of those bounces are already happening — and we can see that across multiple instruments.
Personally, I picked up a few quantum tech tickers like IONQ, which is already up +40%, and added a bit of NVDA.
Holding for now.
US 500 Index – A Deeper Rally or Retreat?The US 500 rallied 0.8% last week to close at 5666 and in doing so managed to lock in its first up week since early February. The bounce also brought some joy to those dip buyers that had to endure watching the index move into correction territory (10% drop from 6144 high) the previous week when it touched a 6-month low at 5505 on March 13th.
Looking forward, it is probably still way too early to say that the selling and rotation away from US stocks into other global indices is over, although what we can say is that traders have taken a pause for reflection ahead of what could be a volatile finish to the end of the first quarter of 2025. Afterall, sentiment towards stocks in the US 500, especially the technology sector, remains fragile.
In the week ahead traders are likely to be focused on the finer details of President Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs, which are due to hit all countries, including long-time US allies, on April 2nd. The breadth of these tariffs and the extent of retaliatory measures, particularly from China and the EU, are likely to have knock on implications for US economic growth, inflation and consumer confidence (see below) , all of which are key factors that may impact future corporate earnings and the direction of the US 500 across the week.
Economic Data:
Monday: 1345 GMT US Preliminary PMI Surveys
Tuesday: 1400 GMT US Consumer Confidence
Friday: 1230 GMT US PCE Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
Solid Footing:
The US 500 has opened the week on a more solid footing after a weekend report on Bloomberg suggested President Trump’s wave of tariffs are to be more targeted than the all-out assault he has touted on social media over the last few weeks.
However, this is yet to be confirmed, and while not the worst-case scenario, it would still be an escalation of the current trade wars and may still result in retaliatory measures from those countries that are hit the hardest. It could also mean traders need to be on Trump social media watch again in the early part of this week.
Technical Update: A Question of Fibonacci Retracements
The US 500 index encountered an aggressive sell-off of 10.4% from the February 2025 all-time high at 6144 to its March low of 5505, from which attempts to bounce have materialised.
This low was important from a technical perspective because the sell off tested a possible support level, marked by a Fibonacci retracement. In the case of the US 500 index, it was the 50% level of the April 2024 to February 2025 advance which stands at 5533 (see chart above).
Using Fibonacci Retracements:
Fibonacci retracements are useful as they can highlight potential support levels when any price weakness is seen and potential resistance levels when any price strength is seen.
Closing breaks below retracement support or above retracement resistance can suggest the possibility of a more extended price move in the direction of the break.
We recently published a report on how to use Fibonacci retracements in greater detail, so please take a look at our timeline to read this.
Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels Offering Any Insight into Recent US 500 Index Moves?
Having already rallied following tests of the 5533 retracement level, this has been confirmed as a support focus moving forward. While closing breaks are not a guarantee of further price declines, with much still dependent on future price trends and sentiment across the trading week, it may well be closes below this level that expose the potential for deeper declines.
If this were to happen, downside potential may then shift towards retracement support at the 61.8% level, which stands at 5389 as you can see on the chart above.
Fibonacci Resistance Focus:
We can also run Fibonacci retracements on the February to March phase of weakness to provide potential resistance levels to focus on in case there is an extension of the recent rally. The 38.2% retracement of the February to March decline stands at 5750 and this is a level that might need to be monitored.
If this 5750 level were to be broken on a closing basis, it may be possible to see a more extended phase of price strength which could could skew the focus for traders towards resistance at 5825, which is the higher 50% retracement level, may be even 5900, which is the 61.8% retracement.
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The bull and bear caseStill leaning bearish, but a tag of 5750 is likely first before any pullback. After open I'm looking for a reversal. Good luck!
