Watching SPX500, buying puts right now!I think the market will reverse here. I don't know what the market is going to do, but I have high conviction in .886 reversal from this zone. Also, 0.618–1.618 confluence pending. Let's see what we get here.
SPX500USD trade ideas
US500 - Will the stock market reach ATH?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect the index to continue moving, and on the other hand, if the index declines towards a certain zone, you can also look for the next S&P long positions with a risk-reward ratio.
Yesterday, a U.S. federal court halted the implementation of President Trump’s “Freedom Day” tariffs. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that these tariffs exceeded the legal authority granted to the president and unanimously decided to revoke them. Nonetheless, Trump still retains the right to appeal the ruling.
Following the court’s decision, President Trump promptly filed an appeal. In response, the White House issued a statement asserting, “The decision on how to handle a national emergency should not fall into the hands of unelected judges.”
Meanwhile, the market reacted strongly to Nvidia’s latest financial report. The company’s stock surged by as much as 5.8% in after-hours trading, before settling at a 4.8% gain compared to the previous day.
This bullish movement reflects investors’ confidence in Nvidia’s continued strong performance.
Nvidia is actively expanding into new markets, including the Middle East—an indication that the company is poised for sustained growth even if its presence in China is constrained.
The rally in Nvidia’s stock didn’t just lift semiconductor companies; broader markets followed suit. The S&P 500 index climbed to 6,005.75 points, representing a 1.7% increase from the prior session.
According to the company’s announcement, Nvidia posted $44.1 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, marking a 69% increase year-over-year and slightly surpassing analysts’ expectations. Revenue from data center operations rose 73% to reach $39.1 billion.
CEO Jensen Huang stated: “Our Blackwell NVL72 AI supercomputer—designed for reasoning and acting as a ‘thinking machine’—is now being mass-produced by system builders and cloud service providers.” He added, “There is enormous global demand for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure. Over the past year alone, AI inference token generation has grown tenfold. As AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI compute will continue to surge.”
A Reuters poll now projects that the S&P 500 will reach 5,900 by the end of 2025—down from the 6,500 level forecast in February. Similarly, the Dow Jones index is expected to close 2025 at 43,708, compared to the previous projection of 47,024 from the February survey.
Separately, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported that the increase in U.S. bank profits was largely driven by growth in noninterest income. Bank earnings in the first quarter of 2025 rose by 5.8%, reaching $70.6 billion. While overall asset quality remains favorable, the commercial real estate loan portfolios continue to show signs of weakness. The number of “problem banks” declined by three, bringing the total down to 63. The banking industry also reported a slowdown in lending growth; the annual loan growth rate for the first quarter was just 3%, down from the pre-pandemic average of 4.9%.
SP500CFD // The bowl is completed at the 6128.16 level, we can see this level as a sales opportunity and make some profit. When we sell, our take profit point is 10 exponentials.
SPX500 H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 6001.65, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 5849.37, a pullback support.
The stop loss is set at 6153.88, a swing high resistance.
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Range Bound MarketS&P 500 Daily Price Chart with Bollinger Bands; Moving Averages 200;50 days.
Some of the big moves were triggered by tariff announcements. Market will
react to economic numbers, tariff news, and earnings. It seems that a recovery from
the lows in April brought the market within 5% of the all-time high.
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I will personally watch this trade. London session might go downI think I discovered a flawed in the system and it might need some immediate attention. This is where my specialty comes in.
SPX500 : We could look for mean reversion here. "London should buy again if US is Selling."
This chart suggests a potential redistribution of liquidity across sessions, highlighting a play on inter-session trade balance and session highs/lows targeting.
🔑 Key Confluences:
1. Premium Zone Rejection
Price is consolidating below a premium supply zone, rejecting near 5,926–5,930.
EQH and BOS suggest liquidity was swept above the recent high.
Bears defending weak high structure—potential for a fakeout to downside if buyers step back in from London or Asia.
2. Session-Based Imbalance Logic
New York (NY) session drove into premium and is now distributing/selling.
Watch if London/Asia step in to reaccumulate from the discount OB zone (~5,856–5,877).
Volume spikes confirm institutional decision points — highest vol aligned with New York push into highs.
3. Equilibrium Reclaim Potential
5,901.41 is marked as equilibrium.
Expect buyers to defend this zone if NY fades — if price reclaims EQ, bullish continuation is in play.
Fail = revisit strong demand below.
4. ORB Range Context (0930–0945 ET)
ORB high = 5,877.37
ORB low = 5,856.85
Price is above the ORB, reinforcing current bullish structure unless US session breaks structure down.
5. CHoCH + BOS Sequencing
Multiple CHoCH → BOS → EQH sequences signal internal structure breaks, consolidating into reversal potential.
If Tokyo holds current low (5,924 avg), price may spring higher during upcoming London session.
📈 Trade Bias: Bullish Bias (Conditional)
Watch for a liquidity sweep → reclaim setup around 5,901 or deeper at 5,877 for a long entry toward 5,940+.
📘 Scenario 1 – Buy Setup:
Entry Zone: 5,877.37–5,901.41
Invalidation: Below 5,856.85
Targets:
TP1: 5,926 (retest of EQH zone)
TP2: 5,940+ (true breakout)
🛑 Scenario 2 – Sell Setup:
If NY drives price below 5,856.85, look for a break-and-retest of EQ for shorts into 5,830 zone (volume gap fill).
🧠 Institutional Flow Insight:
This chart reads like a "sessional liquidity rotation":
Tokyo: Buy programs
London: Accumulated
New York: Profit-taking / Distribution
So if US sells, London may bid again, making this a great session echo play.
Establishing Real-Time Price Action!1). Place Fib tool wherever it works, as theses will be key levels of Buy/Sell entries! 2). Strike a trendline off of whatever works best! 3). Establish a 5-wave/ABC sequence that seems to work! 4). Remember, wave 1 defines directional bias of price action! 5). Wave 3 slightly broke above a previous high, therefore the upward bias is likely still intact! 6). It's all the same price action principles on any timeframe any Instrument! 7). Practice...It's actually quite simple! KEEP IN MIND, WAVE 2 COULD DROP DEEPER... AS IT REMAINS THE ACTIVE WILDCARD!
US500 – Buy the Dip Near Trend & EMA SupportTrade Idea
Type: Buy Limit
Entry: 5,870
Target: 6,020
Stop Loss: 5,820
Risk/Reward Ratio: 3:1
Duration: Intraday
Expires: 28/05/2025 12:00
Technical Overview
Price action continues to respect the primary bullish trend with recent buying off the 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level at 5,868.
A bullish engulfing candle on the 4H chart reinforces a short-term momentum shift to the upside.
The 20-period 4H EMA (5,864) is rising and should provide dynamic support near the entry level.
The setup favors buying dips, aiming for a move to 6,020, while keeping stops tight below key support at 5,820.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Market and Gold previewSome ideas. Gold looks like the better R/R here. If SP drops under 5840 and holds, it's going a lower.
S&P 500 (SPX500USD) – Liquidity Sweep or Continuation? | Probabi🕒 1H Chart | Smart Money Concepts | Volume | ORB Framework
We are currently trading around 5,888, after a recovery from the equilibrium zone near 5,760–5,770, which served as a strong reaction point. Here's how we at WaverVanir International LLC are assessing probability-based outcomes using our DSS and institutional concepts:
🔍 Key Levels & Observations:
🟥 Premium Supply Zone:
5,925–5,945 shows signs of multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character), BOS (Break of Structure), and prior liquidity grabs.
This zone is now a potential trap for late buyers.
Prob. of rejection: ~70% based on historical confluence.
🟦 Discount Demand Zone:
5,742–5,770 is our equilibrium/discount reaccumulation zone with a high-probability reaction area.
Swept liquidity clean on May 24–27 with volume spike confirmation.
Prob. of support: ~75% short-term if price retraces with exhaustion.
📈 Trade Ideas (Probability-Weighted):
Short Setup (Reactive)
Entry: 5,928–5,940 (inside premium)
Stop Loss: Above 5,950 (above weak high)
Target 1: 5,860
Target 2: 5,785–5,765 (equilibrium zone)
Confidence: 65–70%
Long Setup (Reversion Play)
Entry: 5,765–5,745 (bottom of imbalance)
Stop Loss: Below 5,729
Target 1: 5,859
Target 2: 5,910–5,920
Confidence: 70% if sweep occurs with declining vol.
🔄 ORB Confluence:
Opening Range Breakout (0930–0945) shows recent buy-side aggression, but this move is suspect unless volume continues climbing. A fade below 5,859 without impulsive volume confirms seller re-entry.
Liquidity sweep warning from my DSS. Let's see if we see a rug pull in the markets, or we will witness something magical :)
SPY Moving UpWe can look for price to continue up We are starting to see some selling pressure. The RSI on the one hour still has to grow.
Monday Bounce from 4H Demand ZoneAfter taking a controlled loss on Friday, I came into Monday focused and clear-minded. Price tapped into a clean 4H demand zone and printed a strong bullish engulfing candle — a textbook rejection from imbalance. I waited for the 4H candle close before entering long.
Risk was tight below the demand zone, with a clear target above — offering a high RR setup. This trade wasn’t about the day of the week; it was about respecting structure, imbalance, and confirmation.
Pair: US500
Timeframe: 4H
Setup: Bullish engulfing off 4H demand zone + imbalance fill
Entry: After 4H candle close
Stop Loss: Below demand wick
Take Profit: Major clean high above imbalance
Risk-to-Reward: Over 3R
This is why I trade the 4H. One clean move. No stress. No noise. Just structure + patience.
– THE 4H TRADER
S&P 500 Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with SP:SPX bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Tr📉 Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Treasuries?
Recent remarks by former President Donald Trump — including threats of 50% tariffs on EU goods and pressure on Apple to manufacture domestically — have sparked sharp red moves across the U.S. markets.
Which leads to a serious question:
👉 Could this be a deliberate strategy to induce fear in the stock market and push both institutional and retail money toward U.S. Treasury bonds?
In a context where the U.S. government needs to issue and absorb massive debt, and where yields are rising to attract buyers, a sell-off in equities might:
💰 Boost demand for Treasuries
🔥 Justify aggressive fiscal or monetary actions
🎯 Reposition political actors as “economic saviors”
I’m not making claims — just thinking out loud...
Are we witnessing a calculated move to reroute capital from equities into U.S. debt, using fear as the vehicle?
What do you think — coincidence… or strategy?
SPX500 Quick Market Outlook – May 23, 2025 | 15m ChartPosted by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Today's session shows bearish continuation patterns despite a temporary bounce. We're currently trading just below the equilibrium level, with price rejecting from the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zone. The bearish OB (Order Block) above continues to act as a ceiling.
🔍 Key Observations:
Price action is forming lower highs under resistance.
Volume profile and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) suggest distribution near the 5787–5794 zone.
Break below 5766.41 (daily ORB low) could open the path to 5721.75 – 1.618 extension.
Bullish invalidation only above 5793.80, where price would regain control above the mid-FVG and EMA cluster.
⚠️ Watch List:
Key levels: 5787.44 (pivot), 5761.17 (support), 5721.75 (target)
Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims 5795+ with volume
Trigger: Confirmation via 15m candle close below 5766 and breakdown in volume structure
Stay adaptive. The market structure is still forming, and liquidity sweeps can occur.
Full Bear Break PlansToday we took out our second important support level and have sold off strong under it. We're in a rally as I write this but it's still inside the expected corrective range.
We still have not net where I'd expect critical supports to be around 5500 but at this point KI feel we do have enough info to make a forecast of what a crash would probably look like.
People always think crash forecasts are hard to make. Top forecasts are hard to make. Accurate forecasts on when a crash break will or will not happen are hard to make. When it comes to the actual swings of a crash when they happen - historically always been very simple to make. If the bull trap low and high is known, the crash levels have always been foreseeable.
For example, when this low and high was known in 2007, all the important levels and the low of the 2008 / 2009 move could be mapped out.
This isn't an isolated case. It's happened in all previous crashes. If you follow my work you'll have seen me trade important levels in drops / lows many times and it's always based on some derivative of this.
If we know the high/low of the bull trap then we can identify the important break level and map out all the levels to the downside that would typically hit.
We can know the zones where there's the risk of this and also know early if the bear setup is failing.
If SPX was going to make a classic break it'd be quite easy to approximate the classic swings we'd have now.
The first continent for this is a wick rejection on the monthly chart, and ideally in the last part of the month. This may be underway now. The selling has to stick with us either going lower or at least holding down - but if things keep going as they have recently we'll have the wick candle.
I recently showed how we tend to have the failure of bullish wick candles before a trend break. In that setup we usually see a big bullish wick candle. Often an attempt to rally and rejection so we have opposing wick candles (bull wick is usually bigger) and after this comes a bearish engulfing candle which is bigger than all the candles around it and takes out the wick low.
That move would take us to about 4500. And almost certainly be news driven.
From here we usually enter into a period of choppy action. It feels bullish and bearish but it's really just going sideways. Often this will end with two big bluffs. First a bluff at being about to break to the downside and then a big spike out of the recent highs.
This choppy action would likely go on for a few months in total with a high somewhere around 5000.
That'd be the last major bull trap and from there we'd start to head into the crash section. During this section we'd travel as much as the full bear swing from high to the current low had taken but we'd do it in a fraction of the time. Over the space of a couple months we'd make a massive news supported capitulation to under the 2022 low.
That'd then complete a 50% drop from the high. Even in extremely bearish setups we tend to get a bounce from around the 50% off the high level and we also tend to get a bounce when we spike out an obvious support zone - so whatever the overall move would be, if and when the 2022 low was spiked out this is around where I'd expect an important low.
This is a step continent trade plan. We can define a marker and if it hits then the bias is towards the next marker.
The first marker was there would be a monthly wick candle.
The following marker would be there is a rejection and close down end of month.
Third marker would be a massive bear candle taking out the wick low.
Fourth marker would be the "Recovery" being muted and stalling out around 500.
If all of those things happen, then the risk of a following breakout becoming a crash event would be high.
In theory, we could be about 6 months from a major crash and we could put in a series of specific markers as warning signs along the way.
First warning sign is there being no V recovery to this selling and the monthly candle closing with a wick.
This post touches on various things that have been explained in far more detail in recent posts. It'd be recommended to read those for full context.
SPX - SELLPrice broke key support levels. Aiming for SPX to continue the sell side momentum and fill the gap.
SPX Down/Gold UpWIth the move down on SP500 overnight, gold rallied. Both look like they may be nearing the end of the move down so caution is necessary.
US500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in PlayUS500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in Play
US500 is forming a small diamond pattern, but the risk is high since the pattern is still developing and could evolve further.
The price shows signs of a decline, but a strong breakout is needed to confirm the movement.
Diamond patterns are typically trend continuation setups, but the final direction depends on where the breakout happens.
Both scenarios are well explained on the chart
PS: The best approach is to wait for the breakout before taking action.
THIS SETUP IS VALID ONLY FOR TODAY
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
