bearmarket ideeWhich asset does well in a S&P bearmarket? Contra: NDQ, GOLD, QDVF, USDEUR, TLT. I will include more idea's in future.
SPXM trade ideas
FUKIN SEND IT! SPXBIG move coming soon, which direction? You be the judge. .
Down seems to be the easy interpretation of this chart, but don't rule out the "off-the-charts" level of fu*kery that could take place by a parabolic send above the 95 year resistance level.
*RULE OUT NOTHING*
SPY SPX ES_F SP:SPX
S&P500 is back on trackAfter a turbulent week, S&P 500 is recovering, displaying resilience and improving risk appetite. Both market strength and breadth are improving, and in spite of tech stocks having taken a hit, financial and communication sectors lead the rally.
With new earnings week coming in, S&P500 is on the rising track with an open road to achieving 6200 zone: the borderline of Bollinger Bands indicator with a parameter of 20.
Political narratives play on the side of growth, though create additional concerns, but market seems to be more focusing on growth.
Always do your own reserch and manage risk at all times!
SPX ( Bullish Zone Testing and Breakout Potential)The current price action is trading at a bullish level within a sensitive zone, marked between 6,102 and 6,002. For today's projection, the price is expected to initially test the upper boundary of this zone at 6,102. Upon reaching this resistance level, it is anticipated that the price will face rejection, leading to a short-term correction. However, following this retracement, bullish momentum may resume, driving the price upwards again with an aim to break the last resistance level at 6,102.
If this breakout occurs, the market would likely establish a new high level, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, for a bearish scenario to unfold, the price would need to decisively break below the 6,002 support level. This would require a 4-hour candle to close below this critical zone, confirming a downward trend. If such a break occurs, it could lead to a significant price drop, potentially targeting the lower support levels.
S&P 500 Analysis: Retest or Breakout Toward New Highs?S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price has stabilized in the bullish zone and continues to maintain upward momentum.
A potential retest of 6,051 is expected before another push toward 6,074 and 6,103. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close above 6,103 would confirm further bullish continuation toward 6,143, potentially marking a new all-time high (ATH).
However, a 4-hour candle close below the pivot level at 6,051 could trigger bearish pressure, driving the price down toward 6,020.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6051
Resistance Levels: 6077, 6103, 6122
Support Levels: 6020, 5997, 5970
Trend Outlook:
Bullish while above 6051
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to the low of wave “a” 5920.Colleagues, the price reached the 5920 level too quickly, so I tend to believe that wave “2” is not completed. It should consist of 3 waves “abc” so I expect the low of wave “a” 5920 to be updated.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 1.31.2025🔮
📅 Fri Jan 31
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.1%)
📊 Employment Cost Index q/q: 0.9% (prev: 0.8%)
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding a little, then chopping down into EEZ. Watch for resistance in the Hedge Pressure Zone before any reversal.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Slight move higher from earnings, then drop lower into 6055. Expect some chop and potential liquidity sweeps before continuation.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Consolidate lower into the Hedge Cushion Zone, then pump back higher. A strong bounce is likely if price interacts with the Weekly Hedge Cushion and liquidity builds up.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
A much needed resting day within a bullish backdrop for $SPXIdeally, I would like to see a few more days of resting / corrective activity, following 6 straight days of range expansion, and a prior pivot high is a logical place for a dip or an inside day.
Let's look at sector-by-sector analysis, using The Strat method:
1) Look at the colour of the candle on each timeframe to determine who is in control: bulls or bears✅
2) Make sure the top sectors of CBOE:SPX are confirming the index-level picture. Currently AMEX:XLY is showing some discord. Okay ✅ but something to watch for.
3) Make sure the lower timeframe timeframes confirm the thesis of the higher timeframes. They should be aligned to avoid chop. All green on the month. ✅
S&P500 starting a Channel Up on Golden Cross to 6200The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Up on the (1h) time frame.
A (1h) Golden Cross was just formed and the whole pattern draws comparisons with November's (2024) Channel Up.
Both started with a +6% rise that pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which in turn initiated the Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6200 (near the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, like November).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is also forming the same Channel Up as November, after getting oversold under 30.00.
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SPX500: Bullish Triangle Breakout to 6,130 Before Major ReversalSPX500 has formed a bullish triangle, signalling an imminent move higher. Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests a rally from the current price of 6,050 to a double top around 6,130. However, a break below 6,029 would invalidate this bullish scenario. After reaching the 6,130 level, we anticipate a sharp downturn to new lows.
S&P 500 in Danger! Is the Drop Just Beginning?📉 The market is showing signs of weakness! The first resistance is at 5,896, and if it fails, we could see a deeper decline towards 5,740—a level that seems far, but not impossible!
😨 Losses come from ignoring the signs! Don’t let the market catch you off guard—stay ahead of the game!
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#SP500 #StockMarket #Trading #Bearish #MarketCrash #RiskManagement #Investing #TradingSignals #FinancialMarkets #TradingView
SPX : It will go higherLooks like there is more money to be made. It will go HIGHER. And the higher it goes, the HARDER it falls.
We wait, eat popcorn, and cheer it on.
Small, then Big = Higher.
Good luck.
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersAll right today is the day after FOMC and some big earnings and because we had big earnings yesterday we have a pretty wide trading range today so just because we are options are we could have a more volatile day
The expected move on today’s contract is between 5980 and 6095. We did close underneath 35EMA and we have a red signal line.
If we get about the 35 EMA today which future so far are taking us above, we do have a down gap from yesterday and then a down gap from Monday that we haven’t completely filled yet. We also have an up gap from last Wednesday and they do overlap. It’s a little bit hard to see but right around 6075 is the overlap .
To the downside, we have the 50 day moving average so far that has been our support this week. You could see on Monday. We did see that balance and underneath that the 30 minute two and removing average and the one hour 200 moving average those levels have been supporting us With some nice technical bounces
SPX to find sellers at market price?SPX500USD - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a top.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the high.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 6058 level.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
We look to Sell at 6058 (stop at 6099)
Our profit targets will be 5942 and 5920
Resistance: 6102 / 6190 / 6235
Support: 6030 / 5980 / 5940
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$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & targets for Today & Tomorrow (FOMC)35EMA Underneath us, island gap above us, top of the expected move on the day is 6120 above that all-time highs and 6130 on tomorrow’s contract. If I was looking at bear call spreads I’d probably do 6130/6140. Bottom of the move on the day 6015 and underneath all of that is that 50 day moving average with the 30 minute and one hour 200 Bearily positioned underneath that. Is we drop I’ll be looking to 6010/6000 bull put spreads on todays contract - Let’s go 🙌
SPX500The SPX500, or S&P 500, is a major stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It includes companies from various sectors, making it a key benchmark for the overall U.S. economy. The index is widely used by investors to gauge market trends and economic health. With a mix of tech giants, financial institutions, healthcare firms, and industrial leaders, the SPX500 is known for its stability and long-term growth potential.
S&P 500 insanely overvaluedThe Buffett Indicator (aka, Buffett Index, or Buffett Ratio) is the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP.
This ratio fluctuates over time since the value of the stock market can be very volatile, but GDP tends to grow much more predictably. The current ratio of 208% is approximately 66.62% (or about 2.2 standard deviations) above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is Strongly Overvalued relative to GDP.
The Buffett Indicator expresses the value of the US stock market in terms of the size of the US economy. If the stock market value is growing much faster than the actual economy, then it may be in a bubble.
The P/E ratio is a classic measure of a stock's value indicating how many years of profits (at the current earnings rate) it takes to recoup an investment in the stock. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 36.5. This is 79.2% above the modern-era market average of 20.4, putting the current P/E 2.0 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This suggests that the market is Strongly Overvalued.
P/E ratios can only go so high. To justify a P/E ratio that is consistently above its own historic average for long periods of time, the US stock market must not only continue to grow, but would need to continue to grow at a continuously increasing rate.
UncertaintyHyper extended tech driving most of SP gains combined with global uncertainty of Trumps next tariff plans; a correction seems due.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 1.30.2025🔮 Nightly SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Scenarios for 1.30.2025
📅 Thu Jan 30
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Advance GDP q/q: 2.7% (prev: 3.1%)
📊 Unemployment Claims: 221K (prev: 223K)
🌎Global Events:
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting: The ECB is expected to announce its monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating a rate cut.
🇩🇪 Germany GDP Release: Germany will publish its GDP figures, providing insights into the health of Europe's largest economy.
💹 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then chopping near the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Markets might overreact, but this meeting was void of new information. All things markets knew beforehand.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
We will likely bounce hard from these lower levels and hold higher.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
S&P500: Buy the dip and target 6,215.The S&P500 index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.213, MACD = 29.690, ADX = 23.794) as it has completed the technical dive following the 4H Golden Cross just like August 21st 2024, and is rebounding. The two patterns are so far similar, both rebounding on oversold 4H RSI, and the September 2024 rebound almost reached as high as the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. We aim for another close test of the 1.5 Fibonacci (TP = 6,215).
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2025 S&P500 Forecast Guess by Tim WestI included 2024's guess that I posted here in January last year which turned out to be quite accurate in terms of "action" and "direction". The volatility the market saw with wild swings back and forth was outlined on here as we reached the clusters of guesses from Wall Street estimates.
This is an old technique that I learned from Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments and from Forbes Magazine. His wise and witty insights were the foundation of my investment strategy when I started investing in the mid 1980's.
Basically, when you see what the "market expectations" are for a market like the FOREXCOM:SPX500 or S&P500 Index, you can then figure out what needs to happen to get the market to their estimates and realize the market will go to somewhere else other than their guesses.
With 2024 showing a majority of "less than historical average" forecasts and more downside forecasts, it was quite clear that the market could easily outpace or outperform those forecasts.
Now that 2025 shows that analysts are looking for an average year or more, I think it is safe to say that we won't get an average year.
We now have a rising US dollar, which hurts overseas earnings. We also have higher energy prices which also hurts earnings. And yet we have plenty of cash on the sidelines as everyone who missed the rally is hoping to buy on a decline and others are just happy to earn 5% on their cash balances thanks to an ultra-tight Fed (compared to the last 20 years).
So, I expect more of the same that we have seen in January and I also expect sharp declines if we get any moves above the highs and up towards 6500 on the SPX.
Pivot Points Part 1: Understanding the PivotWelcome to this two-part series on one of the oldest and most reliable tools in short-term trading: pivot points .
First developed in the trading pits of Chicago, pivot points gave traders a quick and consistent way to identify potential turning points for the trading day. Despite the evolution of markets from open-outcry to electronic trading, pivot points have stood the test of time. They remain a valuable tool for traders, providing a clear roadmap to navigate intraday price action.
In Part 1, we’ll focus on the pivot point itself—what it is, why it’s so effective, and three ways to incorporate it into your trading. In Part 2, we’ll build on this foundation by delving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot.
What Is the Pivot Point?
At its core, the pivot point is a calculated price level based on the previous session’s high, low, and close:
Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
This level acts as the day’s central reference point, dividing the market into two zones. Prices trading above the pivot point generally suggest bullish sentiment, while prices below it indicate bearish sentiment.
Day traders use the pivot point to gauge market bias for the session. If the price opens above the pivot and holds there, it often signals that buyers are in control. Conversely, if the price opens below the pivot and stays below it, sellers likely dominate.
The pivot point frequently acts as a magnet for price action, with the market often testing it multiple times during the day. This dynamic adaptation to the prior session’s activity makes it especially useful for short-term traders seeking actionable levels.
Pivot Point: S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The Key Advantage: Objectivity
One of the standout features of pivot points is their objectivity. Unlike other technical tools that rely on subjective settings or interpretations, pivot points are calculated using a straightforward formula. This standardisation is a crucial advantage because it ensures that many traders are watching the same levels.
This widespread attention gives pivot points their strength. They act as a universal benchmark, creating a self-reinforcing cycle: when many traders anticipate reactions around a pivot point, the likelihood of significant price action at that level increases.
This objectivity also benefits newer traders by providing a clear, consistent framework for interpreting price movements. Pivot points eliminate guesswork, allowing traders to focus on developing strategies around reliable levels.
Three Ways to Use the Pivot Point in Your Trading
1. Developing a Bias
Where the price opens relative to the pivot point can set the tone for the session. In markets with a defined open and close, such as equities, the opening price’s position above or below the pivot point is a key indicator of sentiment.
For 24-hour markets like forex, the calculation is based on the high, low, and close from the New York session—the most significant closing price. While the opening price in these markets is less critical, understanding where the Asian session has traded relative to the pivot can provide valuable insights into sentiment and potential momentum for the day ahead.
Example: Tesla
In the below example, Tesla opens the session by gapping through the pivot point on the open. This is then followed by a period of consolidation above the pivot point – setting a bullish bias for the session.
Tesla 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Recognising Price Patterns Around the Pivot
Price action around the pivot point can reveal important trading opportunities:
• Bounce: A strong bounce off the pivot suggests it’s being respected as a significant level, often leading to continuation in the direction of the bounce.
• Break and Retest: If the price breaks through the pivot and then retests it as support (in an uptrend) or resistance (in a downtrend), it can offer a reliable entry point.
• Choppy Action: Repeated crossings of the pivot without clear direction indicate indecision—often a signal to step back and wait for clearer trends to emerge.
Combining these price patterns with candlestick signals, like bullish engulfing patterns or bearish pin bars, can add further confidence to your setups.
Example:
Here we see a classic ‘break and retest’ pattern form around the pivot on the FTSE 100 5min candle chart. Having initially held the pivot as support, the market breaks below the pivot and the retraces to retest – using the pivot as resistance and creating a well-defined short setup.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Enhancing Context with VWAP
Combining pivot points with the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) can give traders an additional layer of confirmation. Both tools are objective, widely used, and calculated from historical price data, making them a natural pairing.
If both the pivot point and VWAP align as support or resistance, it strengthens the level’s importance.
Divergence between the two can provide insight into whether short-term momentum might conflict with longer-term trends.
By blending these tools, traders gain a more comprehensive view of market dynamics.
Example:
In this example we see price action on EUR/USD across two days. The first day sees the market make steady gains as prices hold above the daily pivot and VWAP. The second day shows a more mixed start with prices chopping back and forth on either side before finally establishing a foothold above VWAP and the daily pivot – leading to steady gains during European trading.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Final Thoughts
The pivot point is more than just a calculated level—it’s a bridge between historical price action and current sentiment. Its simplicity, objectivity, and widespread use make it an indispensable tool for day traders. Whether you’re gauging market bias, identifying key price patterns, or combining it with other tools like VWAP, the pivot point provides a solid foundation for making informed decisions.
In Part 2 of this series, we’ll explore how the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point have the potential to add further precision to your short-term trading.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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SPx / Fed Watch: Should AI Volatility Raise Concerns?Should the Fed Worry About an AI Wobble?
In this week's meeting, the Fed may not address the DeepSeek AI saga, but AI-driven volatility warrants close attention. Monday’s Nvidia-led selloff, triggered by China’s cheaper DeepSeek AI, rippled into U.S. interest rate markets, highlighting AI’s growing impact on financial stability.
S&P 500 Analysis – Market Outlook
The S&P 500 stabilized at a key bullish zone and continues to exhibit strong upward momentum, aligning with our previous expectations.
A potential retest of 6051 is likely before resuming the upward movement. A successful rebound from this level would strengthen the bullish case, targeting 6103 and 6122 before attempting to break 6143, which would mark a new all-time high (ATH).
The index must maintain price action above the 6051 pivot level for the bullish trend to remain intact. A 4-hour candle close below 6051 could shift momentum towards a bearish correction, with downside targets at 6020 and 5997.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 6077
Resistance Levels: 6103, 6122, 6143
Support Levels: 6051, 6020, 5997
Trend Outlook
📈 Bullish as long as the price remains above 6051.
⚠️ A sustained break below 6051 could trigger bearish pressure toward 6020.
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