SPXM trade ideas
SPX - long
weekly good.
origin - higher volume last week than the week before. this is what I like to see, pullback candles having low volume followed by in trend candle on higher volume. confirms bias. will look for price to pull into VA and then continue up.
S&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekS&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week
The S&P 500 ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year.
Mixed Economic Data
The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments:
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence.
S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector.
Nvidia Shines Bright
Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to the S&P 500’s gains.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, the S&P 500 benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability.
Challenges Ahead
While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events:
FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024.
PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative.
Lingering Risks
In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of:
Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth.
Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets.
Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario
Looking at the current data, the S&P 500 appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening.
What are your thoughts on the S&P 500’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
S&P 500 index short term outlookThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) is trading within an ascending channel on its daily chart, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend. This structure is defined by parallel rising trendlines connecting higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong buyer interest and sustained momentum.
Recent price action shows a breakout above minor resistance near the 5,900 level, confirming bullish sentiment. The index is currently moving toward the midpoint of the channel, with potential to test the upper boundary near 6,100. The lower trendline offers solid support, maintaining the channel's integrity.
Volume will be crucial in validating any further upward moves. Increased volume during an advance toward the upper boundary would strengthen the bullish case, while declining volume may indicate consolidation or a pause in the trend.
For traders, entering a long position while the index remains in the channel could be a viable strategy. A breakout above the upper boundary could present additional upside potential, with profit targets based on the channel's height projected upward. Stop-loss orders can be placed below the lower trendline or the most recent swing low near the 5,800 level to manage risk.
This setup suggests the SPX is poised for continued gains, provided the channel remains intact. However, a break below the lower trendline could signal a reversal, requiring caution and adjustment of trading strategies.
S&P index 1. Bearish Divergence has created in 4h time frame which shows trend is going to reverse.
2. Rising wedge pattern is form which is a reversal pattern which also shows trend is going to reverse.
SPX500 at Key Resistance, Upside or Downside?Hello,
VANTAGE:SP500 is approaching its previous high of 6034.06, with key resistance levels at 5977.6155 and 5994.981. If these levels can hold as support, we may see further upside potential. However, if they fail to act as support, a downside move is likely. Sellers are currently confident that the bears could take control soon, although this shift has not yet been confirmed.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
SPX500 Monthly 50EMA Support Zone Possible support based on the 50EMA acting as demand line for the last 10 years
The prospect of a recession and a catastrophic market collapseThe prospect of a recession and a catastrophic market collapse looms large.
All who are alert to the state of the financial markets cannot fail to recognise that this is an inevitability, following the past few years of flagrant profligacy on the part of the Biden administration and the reckless policies of the Federal Reserve, whose incessant money printing has wrought havoc.
The crash I anticipate will likely see a fall of fifty per cent in market values, though it may well prove to be far worse, perhaps as severe as seventy five per cent. It seems probable that this event will unfold at some point in 2025, possibly around September or October, and endure for a number of months. However, it could come much sooner.
Inflation, far from abating, is once again on the rise, and we are now mired in stagflation. The outcome is all but certain: there is no remedy, no action the Federal Reserve may take, that will avert the consequences of this disastrous course.
Market SnapshotAbsolutely FANTASTIC article that encapsulates the sentiment of this update and our predictions for where the market is heading:
All credits for the article go to Avi Gilburt and his ElliottWaveTrader.Net team. Highly suggest you give their stuff a read
elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Sentiment-Speaks-This-Is-My-Strong-Warning-To-You-202411179385907.html
Could we see another drop on SPX500USD?Hi traders,
Last week SPX500USD made the correction up like I've said in my outlook.
So next week we could see another drop into the Daily FVG lower to finish the correction pattern.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction up to finish and make a change in orderflow to bearish. After that wait for a correction up on a lower timeframe and trade (short term) shorts.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
S&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekThe S&P 500 ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year.
Mixed Economic Data
The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments:
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence.
S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector.
Nvidia Shines Bright
Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to the S&P 500’s gains.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, the S&P 500 benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability.
Challenges Ahead
While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events:
FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024.
PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative.
Lingering Risks
In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of:
Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth.
Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets.
Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario
Looking at the current data, the S&P 500 appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening.
What are your thoughts on the S&P 500’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 22, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading session, the S&P 500 index has exhibited notable stability at the previously completed Mean Support level of 5856. Following this stabilization, the index is progressing toward a retest of the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6000 and the Key Resistance threshold of 6008. This substantial upward movement may/will precipitate a decline toward the Mean Support level 5920. However, it is crucial to recognize that reaching this support level or any pullback will facilitate a price rebound, thereby positioning the market for the subsequent phase of the bullish trend. This trend will be aimed at the Next #1 Outer Index Rally target of 6123 and potentially extend beyond that level in the near future.
Potential Upside Looking forward to what next week brings.
We closed above daily high. Potentially a continuation to the upside next week.
First we must wait for sweep before to the upside.
If the pullback don't hold, then we will potentially look to short for short term before going back into correction of trend.
11/18 Volatility Zones: Gamma Squeeze, Chop, and Support LevelsWeekly GEX Levels for SPX:
The SPX analysis from last week’s free newsletter seems to have played out well. If you recall, based on the weekly GEX levels, there were no significant gamma levels below 5950. As soon as the price dropped below that, we saw the anticipated red gap-down to 5850 by Friday.
With Friday's move, SPX shifted from a positive NETGEX range to a negative one:
Let’s not forget: a negative gamma range means that market makers move in the same direction as retail traders, increasing the likelihood of stronger price movements, regardless of the market’s direction. Until the 5900 HVL level is reclaimed, I don’t expect this to change. As we saw today, there was a nice bounce off this level with a rejection, making it a tough resistance to break.
If it does manage to break through, there’s currently a call gamma wall at 5925. Clearing this level could open the door to higher ranges again.
While the week is still long, if the market fails to regain stability by Friday, breaking below the major 5850 PUT gamma wall could lead to another rapid move down, similar to last Friday, targeting the 5810–5800 range.
Gamma Squeeze Zones for SP:SPX & AMEX:SPY this week:
Above 5925:
Gamma squeeze zone, where upward momentum can accelerate.
Chop Zone:
Between 5900 and 5930: Sideways movement expected, with the market consolidating in this range.
High Volatility Zone:
Below 5900: High volatility zone, indicating increased intensity in market movements.
Market Makers Hedging Behavior Shift Zone:
Around 5900: A critical zone where market makers may adjust their hedging strategies.
Call Resistance:
Below 5940: Reduced volatility expected as call resistance limits upward movement.
Put Support Levels:
Around 5850: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT support level.
Between 5810 and 5800: Additional put support levels acting as key supports; if 5850 broken, turbulence is expected.
IV and Skew Data:
IVR: 16.9 increasing
IV Average: 14.9 increasing
PUT pricing skew: 31.5%
Possible market correction has already startedGeopolitics and Trump's odd cabinet shuffle could bring some real volatility, and i see a correction may have already started. Here is a zoomed in count of what may just be a smaller ABC correction, but I believe it is the start of something bigger.
Beautiful $SPX price action, ascending triangleLONG TERM TREND: Neutral/Bearish
TIMEFRAME: Intraday
What a textbook ascending triangle pattern we're witnessing on SP:SPX today! 👀
Price action has been absolutely pristine, giving us multiple touches on both the ascending support trendline and the horizontal resistance. Each bounce off support has been getting progressively higher, while sellers continue defending that key overhead level - classic ascending triangle behavior.
The swings within this pattern have been a trader's dream - offering clean entries and exits for those playing the range. We've seen buyers step in with conviction at each test of the rising support, leading to predictable bounces.
However, there's a concerning development here... While ascending triangles are typically considered bullish continuation patterns, the momentum on each bounce is getting noticeably weaker. Volume has been declining throughout the pattern formation (a bearish divergence), and the last two tests of resistance showed significant rejection wicks.
If this declining momentum continues, watch for a break below the ascending support line. Such a break would likely trigger a cascade of stops and could lead to an accelerated move lower. Key levels to watch would be 5950, 5940 and ultimately 5925.
Remember to always manage risk and size positions appropriately. No pattern is guaranteed to play out as expected.
What are your thoughts on this setup?
#SPX #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartPatterns
S&P 500 (CME) may rise to 5977.00 - 6005.00 "carry trade"Pivot
5935.00
Our preference
Long positions above 5935.00 with targets at 5977.00 & 6005.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 5935.00 look for further downside with 5907.00 & 5890.00 as targets.
Comment
The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.
Supports and resistances
6038.00
6005.00
5977.00
5951.25 Last
5935.00
5907.00
5890.00
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Key Levels and Trend Reversal SignalsS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price exhibits bearish momentum as long as it trades below 5945, with potential downside targets at 5927, 5896, and 5863.
For a bullish reversal, the price must break the current price by closing a 4-hour candle above 5945. If this occurs, the bullish trend could extend towards 5970.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5945
Resistance Levels: 5970, 5989, 6020
Support Levels: 5898,5863, 5843
Trend Outlook:
- Bullish Above 5945
- Bearish Below 5945
Understanding the S&P 500's FundamentalsUnderstanding the S&P 500's Fundamentals
The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies. To understand its fundamentals, we need to delve into its components, key metrics, and influencing factors.
Key Fundamental Metrics:
Earnings per Share (EPS): This measures a company's profitability by dividing its net income by the number of outstanding shares. A higher EPS generally indicates a healthier company.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio): This compares a company's current share price to its earnings per share. A lower P/E ratio may indicate a stock is undervalued.
Dividend Yield: This is the annual dividend per share divided by the share price. It represents the return an investor receives from dividends.
Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B Ratio): This compares a company's market value to its book value (assets minus liabilities). A lower P/B ratio may indicate a stock is undervalued.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: This measures a company's financial leverage by comparing its total debt to its total equity. A lower ratio indicates a healthier financial position.
Factors Affecting the S&P 500:
Economic Indicators: Factors like GDP growth, interest rates, inflation, and unemployment rates can significantly impact the performance of the S&P 500.
Industry Trends: Changes in specific industries can affect the performance of certain S&P 500 components.
Geopolitical Events: Global events such as wars, trade disputes, and political instability can create uncertainty and volatility in the market.
Investor Sentiment: Market sentiment, driven by factors like news, economic data, and corporate earnings, can influence the overall direction of the S&P 500.
How to Analyze the S&P 500's Fundamentals:
Track Key Metrics: Monitor the overall P/E ratio, dividend yield, and other metrics to gauge the market's valuation.
Analyze Economic Indicators: Pay attention to economic data releases, such as GDP reports, inflation figures, and interest rate decisions.
Monitor Industry Trends: Stay informed about the performance of different sectors within the S&P 500.
Consider Geopolitical Factors: Be aware of global events that could impact the market.
Assess Investor Sentiment: Gauge market sentiment through news, social media, and analyst opinions.
Where to Find Information:
Financial News Websites: Websites like Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC provide real-time news and analysis.
Financial Data Platforms: Platforms like Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and Seeking Alpha offer detailed company and market data.
Brokerage Accounts: Many brokerage accounts provide tools and research to analyze stocks and indices.
By understanding these fundamental factors and using reliable sources of information, you can make informed decisions about investing in the S&P 500.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 11.22.2024🔮
⏰9:45am
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
⏰10:00am
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 11.22.2024🔮
⏰9:45am
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
⏰10:00am
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
Bubble everything - 2024-NOV-13Taking into account "bubble everything" theory and ~18-years cycle on financial markets + on top of that ~4-years cycle in crypto markets ... we have roughly 6-7 ATH on everything.
Then bubble will start bursting.
Housing markets will need 4-7 years to visit new bottoms.
Stocks & crypto will need ~1 year to catch new bottoms.
What's going to be the trigger to bubble everything burst?
Great trade in SPY!!!For an aggressive trader, you can buy now and place your stop at $5848, which is a safe zone because if the market falls below this price, the bull market would also be invalidated. My target would be $6193, which is the last leg plotted at the bottom of the pivot. To support this position, we observe that the SPX has pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci zone and the previous high, and the stochastic is in the oversold area. This trade offers a 4% gain and a 1.77% loss.
