Lower from here Very possible. I know this looks bad, but I state my reasons why a final flush into tomorrow is looking likely as of now.
SPXM trade ideas
US500: Trend Shift - Potential Break of Key Support LevelsThis analysis focuses on the US500 chart, a representation of the S&P 500 index, a key indicator of the US stock market's performance. The chart displays price action over a 4-hour timeframe, offering a medium-term perspective. The analysis aims to identify potential support levels and assess the likelihood of further bearish movement.
2. Key Findings and Supporting Evidence:
Bearish Trend: The chart clearly shows a prevailing downtrend. The price has been making lower highs and lower lows, signifying strong selling pressure.
Breakdown of Rising Wedge: A rising wedge pattern, often considered a bearish reversal pattern, is visible between March 11th and March 27th. The subsequent breakdown from this wedge has confirmed the bearish sentiment and suggests a continuation of the downtrend.
Potential Support Levels: The chart highlights three potential support levels:
5500 (Current Level): The price is currently hovering around this level. A break below this level could trigger further selling.
5504.2 (First Target): This level is marked as the first potential target for the bearish move.
5441.3 (Second Target): This level represents a more significant support and a deeper potential target.
Trading Strategy Indication: The chart suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, with entry around the current level (5500) and targets at the identified support levels. The stop-loss is placed above the recent high to manage risk.
High Volatility: The sharp price swings and the length of the red (bearish) candles indicate high volatility, suggesting strong momentum behind the downtrend.
3. Relevant Data and Statistics (Inferred):
Timeframe: 4-hour chart.
Index: US500 (S&P 500 equivalent).
Recent High: Approximately 5800.
Recent Low: Approximately 5486.7.
Potential Support Levels: 5500, 5504.2, 5441.3.
4. Discussion of Implications and Potential Future Trends:
Market Sentiment: The breakdown from the rising wedge and the continued bearish momentum suggest a shift in market sentiment towards increased pessimism.
Economic Factors: The downtrend could be influenced by various economic factors, such as rising interest rates, inflation concerns, or geopolitical uncertainties.
Risk Management: Traders should exercise caution and implement proper risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders, due to the high volatility.
Potential for Rebound: While the current trend is bearish, it's essential to acknowledge the possibility of a rebound or consolidation at the support levels.
Trading spx with ict conceptsTook my trade after i saw a rejection from the 8:30 open and on the 1min we had a change of character and a 1 min fvg being respected.
The Trade War Strikes Back: Market Reeling from Trump’s Tariff MThe markets are not taking Trump’s new round of tariffs lightly.
As the S&P 500 dips sharply, investors are reacting to the growing tension between the U.S. and China over trade policy. The new tariffs have ignited fears of a prolonged trade war, sending shockwaves through tech-heavy sectors and dragging major names like NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AAPL , and NASDAQ:AMZN deep into the red.
📉 What we're seeing:
SP500 is breaking recent support with heavy volume.
Tech sector is leading the sell-off, especially chipmakers and global exporters.
Uncertainty is pushing investors toward safety, further increasing volatility.
🧠 Key takeaway: This is more than a dip—it’s policy risk priced in real time. Until there's clarity, traders should prepare for more erratic moves. Short-term sentiment has clearly flipped bearish.
💬 Are you buying the fear or staying out of the storm?
SPX bottoming- Next Legup going to get ParabolicThe SPX has completed its correction within a falling wedge pattern and is now poised for a breakout and a parabolic move, with expectations of reaching new highs moving forward.
Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5130/5160/5850/5880 Iron Condor... for a 10.20 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV >21. Hesitant to add more long delta here, so going delta neutral in SPX and structuring the trade such that I receive one-third the width of the wings (30) in credit.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 19.80
Max Profit: 10.20
ROC at Max: 51.52%
50% Max: 5.10
ROC at 50% Max: 25.8%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, rolling down oppositional side on side test, but won't hesitate to take profit quickly if IV crushes in dramatically post "Liberation Day."
Be careful of the bottom callers todayto me this bounce is part of a B wave and a last leg down should complete tomorrow.
Aggressive 0 DTE PUT spreadPlaying the bounce / recovery on a big drop for SPX today, short term 0 DTE.
-5400 +5395 15% gain in premium
S&P 30m 50day SMA chart predictorUsing this simple 50sma on a 30min chart one can see when to go long or short trading Bove or below that line respectively.
I Learned from Trader Brian Jones on twitter. He’s a beast!!!
S&P500 - Downtrend - Support Level 5259Based on my chart, SP:SPX showing downtrend with a Strong Support Level of 5259. If it fails to hold this level, I won't be surprised to see SP:SPX at 4759.
Considering the factors Technical (Indicators showing bearish trend) & Fundamental (Tariffs, earnings, Fed's negative data etc.)
Trade War PerspectiveSure, tune in to your favorite youtube finance doomer or the news, and it will sound like the end of the world has arrived.
I personally feel like this tariff crisis is cover to air out all the dirty laundry that's been hidden the last few years. The AI bubble, the stimmy repayment, the imaginary gold, the "forgot how to grow economy" (credit that last one to Eurodollar University), etc etc.
Take a look at this chart. If this is "the end" we have BARELY begun the descent. These types of corrections happen routinely. The point is, don't panic. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY and don't get emotional.
Good luck out there. Don't get flushed down the tariff toilet.
Strong Buying Zone with Confident The Green 4h Zone Acts as Strong Buying Zone.
The Blue Zone POC/IC (Point Of Interest or Institutional Candle) is weak Support now since it been tested before.
The Fresh Zone is the Green 4h which acts as Decent Support Zone.
We have two Scenarios indicating Buyers step in Strongly Within Green Buying Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of green Buying Zone.
Both indicate Buyers Stepping in strongly.
Once One Showed Up a safe entry would be 50% Fibo from the buying Candle at 1h TF.
Regards,
Take care.
Exit while you canThere will most likely be a market halt some time this week and next week. Watch out. Cash is king!
3/4/25 Trump Reciprocal Tariffs
Yesterday's candlestick opened lower but reversed to close as a big bull bar in its upper half with a prominent tail above.
However, the market traded significantly lower after the market closed. The market will open lower than the March 13 low today.
Again, the bulls hope buyers are below the gap down, similar to March 31st and yesterday April 2nd.
They want any follow-through selling to be limited, and the market to trade up after that.
The bears hope to get follow-through selling after a brief pullback. They want the market to close near its low.
Usually, when the market is opening significantly lower, which means that there are a lot of sell orders at the open.
The market makers have to quote a price they are willing to buy for the stocks that they are trading. Usually, that price is near the day's low.
So, at the open, if you are buying stocks that are gapping down, you are buying with the market maker.
After the market opens, if there is no fresh selling, the market may then slowly float up, letting the market maker slowly clear off their position (remember, they bought at the open, buying when everyone has put an order to sell at the open).
However, if there is fresh selling, the market then may continue to sell off after a brief pullback. If this is the case, then it can be a bearish day.
The reason is that the market maker has been caught long at the open, and the fresh selling continues to push prices past their entry.
The next price they would want to buy would be much lower. So if there are fresh large selling orders in the respective stocks after the market opens, the market makers would bid a lot lower so that they are not run over by a freight train.
For today, traders will see if buyers will buy the gap down open like they did on March 31st and April 2nd.
Or will the market form a brief pullback, and then continue to selloff into the close? If this is the case, the market may not be in a good place moving forward.
$SPX - Top of the MountainSPX is once again, since its uptrend began on 11/06/2023, breaking below the 3-month simple moving average and now also the Monthly Heiken Ashi average (black stepped line).
This time, it seems to have the conditions to start its descent from the mountain and confirm that we reached the top on 02/18/2025.
Looking at the vast majority of stocks in today’s pre-market, this appears to be the scenario.
And this impacts my recent positions. In this scenario, it will seek the 1-year simple moving average, where it should make a pullback (HH or LH?).
Time for caution and to avoid new long entries.
Is 5,700 the New 6,000?The S&P 500 has struggled recently, and some traders may see risk of further downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the three-day jump above 5,700 early last week. The move peaked around the January low of 5,773. It also represented a false breakout above the November low of 5,696.50.
In other words, two former support levels have emerged as new resistance.
It’s also reminiscent of the price action in January and February, when failure to hold 6,000 triggered selling.
Next, last week’s high occurred at the 200-day simple moving average. That may suggest the longer-term uptrend has ended.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained below the 21-day EMA. That may indicate that a shorter-term downtrend has begun.
Finally, given the weakening momentum, traders may start eyeing longer-term levels for potential support. One potential spot could be the September low of 5,403, followed by the August trough of 5,119.
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S&P INTRADAY bearish below 5636President Donald Trump imposed the highest U.S. tariffs in a century, aiming to reshape the global economy. This move triggered threats of retaliation and a sharp market selloff worldwide. Stock markets reacted quickly and negatively. U.S. equity futures dropped as investors worried about corporate earnings. European and Asian stocks also declined. The dollar fell to a five-month low, while investors sought safety in Treasury bonds, and the yen strengthened.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5636
Resistance Level 2: 5713
Resistance Level 3: 5790
Support Level 1: 5413
Support Level 2: 5262
Support Level 3: 5200
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Understanding Market Downturns: How to Navigate the StormLately, the markets have been in a downtrend, leaving many traders and investors wondering what comes next. Whether it’s stocks, crypto, or other financial assets, downturns are an inevitable part of the game. While they can be unsettling, they also present opportunities—if you know how to navigate them.
Market declines happen for many reasons: economic slowdowns, geopolitical tensions, changes in interest rates, or even shifts in investor sentiment. Regardless of the cause, understanding the different types of market downturns, their impact, and the right strategies to handle them is key to making informed decisions.
So, let’s break down market downturns, how they unfold, and what you can do to stay ahead.
📊 DOWNTURN #1: Down -2% — A Ripple of Volatility
A -2% drop is like a minor speed bump—annoying but not alarming. These small dips are common and often part of natural market fluctuations.
✅ Key Characteristics:
• Typically short-lived and often recovers quickly.
• Can be triggered by minor news events, investor sentiment shifts, or profit-taking.
• Provides opportunities to enter positions at a slightly better price.
💡 Strategy:
• If you're a long-term investor, ignore these small movements. They are normal.
• If you're a trader, these dips can be buying opportunities in an uptrend.
________________________________________
🔄 DOWNTURN #2: Down -5% — The Pullback Perspective
A 5% decline is often called a pullback—a temporary market retreat within an ongoing trend.
✅ Key Characteristics:
• Pullbacks often occur after strong rallies as the market cools off.
• Typically seen as healthy corrections in an overall uptrend.
• Not necessarily a signal of long-term weakness.
💡 Strategy:
• Long-term investors should hold steady and potentially add to positions.
• Swing traders may look for a bounce at key support levels (moving averages, previous highs/lows).
________________________________________
🛑 DOWNTURN #3: Down -10% — Entering Correction Territory
When a market drops 10% from its recent high, it officially enters correction territory.
✅ Key Characteristics:
• Often caused by changes in economic outlook, inflation concerns, or major geopolitical events.
• Moving averages may start crossing downward, signaling caution.
• Momentum shifts, and bearish traders begin to take control.
💡 Strategy:
• If you’re a long-term investor, consider rebalancing your portfolio or hedging with defensive assets.
• Traders may look for short opportunities or play reversals at support levels.
• Be cautious with leverage—downturns can accelerate quickly.
________________________________________
🐻 DOWNTURN #4: Down -20% — The Bear Market Looms
A 20% drop or more marks a bear market, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment.
✅ Key Characteristics:
• Confidence is shaken; investors turn risk-averse.
• Defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples, healthcare) tend to outperform.
• Market psychology shifts from "buying the dip" to "protecting capital."
💡 Strategy:
• Consider defensive positions, hedging strategies, or increasing cash reserves.
• Avoid high-risk assets—stocks with weak fundamentals often fall the hardest.
• If you’re a trader, look for short-selling opportunities or inverse ETFs.
________________________________________
⚠️ DOWNTURN #5: Down -50% — The Market Crash Crisis
A 50% market decline is rare but catastrophic, often fueled by deep economic crises.
Historical Examples:
• 2008 Financial Crisis: Banks collapsed, and global markets fell over 50%.
• Dot-Com Bubble (2000): Tech stocks crashed after unsustainable hype.
• Oil Crisis (1973-74): Economic stagnation and inflation led to severe losses.
✅ Key Characteristics:
• Panic selling dominates the market.
• Fear-driven liquidation leads to extreme undervaluation.
• Long-term recovery often follows—but timing is uncertain.
💡 Strategy:
• If you have cash reserves, these moments present once-in-a-decade buying opportunities (but patience is needed).
• Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can be effective for long-term investors.
• Traders should expect extreme volatility—both to the downside and in sharp relief rallies.
________________________________________
🌧️ DOWNTURN #6: Prolonged Downside — The Economic Depression
Unlike a crash, a depression is a long-term, sustained downturn that deeply affects the economy.
✅ Key Characteristics:
• Prolonged recession, lasting years rather than months.
• Unemployment soars, economic activity collapses.
• Investor confidence remains low for an extended period.
Historical Example: The Great Depression (1930s)
• U.S. unemployment hit 25%.
• Stock markets stayed depressed for a decade.
• Industrial production and wages plummeted.
💡 Strategy:
• Preservation of capital is key—cash, gold, and defensive assets become crucial.
• Income-producing investments (dividend stocks, bonds) provide stability.
• Patience is essential; full recovery can take years.
________________________________________
🧭 Conclusion: Navigating Market Downturns Like a Pro
Downturns are an inevitable part of investing and trading. While they can be unsettling, being informed and prepared is the key to staying ahead.
✅ Key Takeaways:
• Minor dips (-2% to -5%) are normal and often present opportunities.
• Corrections (-10%) require caution, but markets usually recover.
• Bear markets (-20%) signal broader economic concerns—risk management is crucial.
• Crashes (-50%) are rare but can create massive buying opportunities for long-term investors.
• Depressions are the most severe and require a long-term, defensive approach.
No matter the downturn, the key is to stay calm, adjust your strategy, and use market cycles to your advantage.
With the right approach, you won’t just survive market downturns—you’ll thrive in the long run. 🚀
5504 is to watch on the closing basisThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service.
S&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's TariffS&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's Tariff Announcement
As shown on the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, the benchmark US stock index dropped below 5,450 points for the first time in 2025. This decline reflects the US stock market’s reaction to the tariffs imposed by the White House on international trade.
According to Reuters:
→ President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on most goods imported into the United States, with Asian countries being hit the hardest.
→ This move escalates the global trade war. "The consequences will be devastating for millions of people worldwide," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adding that the 27-member EU bloc is preparing to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail.
Financial Markets’ Reaction to Trump’s Tariffs
→ Stock markets in Beijing and Tokyo fell to multi-month lows.
→ Gold hit a new all-time high, surpassing $3,160.
→ The US dollar weakened against other major currencies.
The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is now trading at levels last seen in September 2024, before Trump's election victory.
Investor sentiment appears to have turned bearish, with growing concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs, as fears mount that they could slow down the US economy and fuel inflation.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
The bearish momentum seen yesterday signals a continued correction, which we first identified in our 17 March analysis.
At that time, we mapped out a rising channel (blue) that began in 2024, suggesting that selling pressure might ease near its lower boundary. However, Trump's policy decision has reinforced bearish confidence, and now the price may continue fluctuating within the two downward-sloping red lines. This suggests that the long-term blue growth channel is losing its relevance.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SP500 APRIL PREDn0t cl3ar.
0.618 holds hard
maybe trend swapping.
1px green = overmarket
1px red = not inflated (?)
we may close april in 5368$ zone.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5788.8.Dear colleagues, I am still counting on an upward movement. It seems that the sellers have not lost their strength yet and I see that an update of the low in the area of 5445 is possible. Then I expect a resumption of the upward movement with a target to reach the 5788.8 area.
As usual there are 2 possible entry options:
1) Market entry
2) Entry by pending limit orders if the price starts a small downward movement.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
US500 Need to break current 5500 rangeUS500 is currently ranging between 5500 & 5485. It need to break current 5500 range to break upside resistance at PDL 5522.70 and next will test PWL 5556.90 which coincide with Tuesday low of 5555.80 before heading upwards.
