S&P SellWith economic uncertainty in the US, buying XAU or selling the index is not favourable at this time
SPXM trade ideas
S&P500 INDEX (US500): More Down
With a confirmed bearish breakout of a key daily horizontal support,
US500 index opens a potential for more drop.
Next key support is 5425.
It looks like the market is going to reach that soon.
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S&P 500 tests key support on Trump's latest bombshellIn yet another striking move, US President Donald Trump has just announced plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, raising them from 25% to a hefty 50%. The new tariffs are slated to come into effect this Wednesday, with Trump citing Canada's intention to impose tariffs on electricity exports to the US as the catalyst for this decision. This latest escalation in trade tensions comes hot on the heels of a tumultuous Monday, which marked the worst day of 2025 for US markets. Investor fears were stoked by President Trump's aggressive tariff policies targeting America's largest trading partners, sending shockwaves through the financial landscape.
The situation has left many observers questioning the broader implications of these trade policies on both the US economy and its international relationships.
But one thing that has been quite clear all these years in this long-term bull market is that every time we have had a decent sell-off, dip-buyers have invariably stepped in and drove markets to new highs despite any macro concerns. Every single time we have heard cries of “this time it is different,” the bulls have prevailed, and bought the dip. Not even covid could hold the bulls back, let alone the unwinding of yen carry trades in 2024, or China’s sluggish recovery that caused local markets to tank last year, and before that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or the bear market of 2022 when inflation surged and caused interest rates to shoot higher across the world (excluding Japan). Are we going to see yet another such recovery soon, or does the market want to go a little deeper before dip buyers emerge? That’s the key question, and one way to find clues is by looking at the charts.
The S&P 500 here is testing liquidity below yesterday's low of 5567 and key support in the 5550 area. With the daily RSI now well into the oversold territory, can we see a rebound here heading deeper into the US session?
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with Forex.com
SPX 23% - 36% Market Crash From Recent Highs (~6,147)Structural Breakdown & Key Observations
Recent High: $6,147.43 (ATH level)
Bearish Momentum Indicators:
MACD: -40.98 (Bearish momentum increasing)
RSI: 45.11 (Weakening strength but not yet oversold)
Volume Increase: $14.18B → Indicates potential distribution.
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern Confirmation:
Potential Upthrust & Distribution Phase around 6,147 - 6,000.
If SPX loses 5,700 - 5,600, it will confirm a markdown phase → Bearish.
What Could Trigger a 23% - 36% Crash?
Macroeconomic Risks:
Rising interest rates (Liquidity tightening).
Earnings recession (Corporate profits declining).
Geopolitical risks (Oil, China, etc.).
Bond market stress → Inverted yield curve impact.
Technical Market Triggers:
Break of 5,600 → Strong Bearish Confirmation.
5,400 - 5,200 = Critical "Mid-Crash" Zone → If lost, crash risk accelerates.
VIX spikes above 30+ would confirm a volatility explosion.
✅ Bearish bias confirmed → If SPX breaks below 5,600, crash potential is HIGH.
✅ A 23-36% drawdown aligns with macro & technical risks.
✅ Watch for Fed intervention at ~4,300 - 4,750 levels → This will dictate if the market stabilizes.
🚨 Conclusion:
If SPX holds 5,600, expect a bounce → Otherwise, full markdown into a 23-36% crash is possible.
Key level to watch: 5,400 - 5,200 → This is the TRUE danger zone for a full market selloff.
SPX Now Threatens a Crash Event if We BreakWe have the very uncommon condition of SPX downtrending 10% over the last month.
It didn't make a flash crash event. It's not the classic jagged correction. Certainly isn't a clean ABC. Day after day, week after week the hour chart has painted lower lows and lower highs.
In this type of break I'd expect to see a rally right after. Traditionally this is a failed new high/head and shoulders like move - but in the modern market a modified spike out of the high is the common outcome.
The min expected retracement would be this.
But these days it's more reasonable to expect something like this.
Massive and critical supports are around 5500. If we get there, make another standard bull trap rally (Very sharp one) and then we break - this might set up a true capitulation event.
It's possible SPX is 20% off the high before the end of Q2.
At which point, I'd be rather bullish. I do like to buy at supports.
$SPX (THIS IS BAD) Trading Levels for March 11 2025
Not the prettiest setup is you’re a bull. We are DANGLING - unsupported underneath the 200 Day Moving Average.
Next support - 5400
Glory to the Bear! - And My Plan is in MotionGlory to the Bear! - And My Plan is in Motion | SPX Market Analysis 11 Mar 2025
It’s time to salute the bear—SPX is nearly 10% down, officially flirting with correction territory. The NASDAQ has already crossed the line, and blue-chip stocks are falling fast, shedding high single and low double digits in a matter of days.
But here’s the difference—there’s no panic. This isn’t a blind sell-off; it’s structured, calculated, and methodical. The market isn’t falling apart in chaos—it’s crumbling with precision. That tells me one thing: this move has legs.
I’m already locked and loaded on the bearish side, with 5255 as my next major target. Until we see a meaningful reclaim of 5800, I won’t even consider flipping bullish. For now, it’s all about collecting profits—or watching for hedge triggers.
---
Deeper Dive Analysis:
The SPX correction is nearly here, and unlike past sell-offs, this one feels controlled, structured, and lacking in panic. That’s what makes it even more powerful.
The Market Breakdown – How We Got Here
The SPX is down 9.49%, inching closer to official correction levels. While the speed of the decline has been slow, the trend is now unmistakable—we are firmly in a bearish structure.
Monday’s move steepened the downtrend, confirming the break below the sideways channel.
The NASDAQ has already crossed correction territory, leading the decline.
Blue-chip stocks are getting slaughtered, dropping in high single and low double digits.
Technical Levels – Why This Bear Move Is Clear
One of my favourite things in technical analysis is when everything interlocks perfectly—and that’s exactly what’s happening.
The first bearish target on the daily charts has been reached, causing a minor bounce—likely profit-taking.
The larger expanding triangle breakout target is 5255, which just happens to be 200% of the previous target.
The next bullish play isn’t even on my radar until SPX reclaims 5800.
Trading Execution – No Need to Rush
With my bearish positions locked in, there’s no reason to chase or force trades. The plan is simple:
Let the market do its thing.
Wait for profits to roll in—or hedge triggers to fire.
No new bullish trades until SPX climbs back above 5800.
Right now, the market is rewarding patience. This is what structured trading looks like—sticking to the plan and executing with confidence.
---
Did you know? In 1929, stock tickers ran hours behind during the market crash, leaving traders guessing how much they had lost until the end of the day.
The Lesson? Market chaos rewards those who plan ahead. Unlike traders in 1929, you don’t have to wait for a newspaper headline to know what’s happening—but if you’re not following a strategy, you’re still guessing.
US500 May Continue the Decline to 5200US500 May Continue the Decline to 5200
The US500 index has reached the targets we set in our last analysis. However, the market remains highly volatile, with future movements shrouded in uncertainty.
This instability can largely be attributed to President Trump's policies, which have introduced a significant level of unpredictability.
According to the New York Times, economic fears have sent world markets into a dive.
Stock markets around the globe plummeted yesterday after President Trump refused to rule out the possibility that his trade policies might trigger a recession.
Additionally, several retaliatory tariffs against the United States have come into effect.
You may Watch the analysis for more details!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Index Investing: A Practical Approach to Market ParticipationIndex Investing: A Practical Approach to Market Participation
Index investing has become a popular way for traders and investors to access the broader market. By tracking the performance of financial indices like the S&P 500 or FTSE 100, index investing offers diversification, lower costs, and steady exposure to market trends. This article explores how index investing works, its advantages, potential risks, and strategies to suit different goals.
Index Investing Definition
Index investing is a strategy where traders and investors focus on tracking the performance of a specific financial market index, such as the FTSE 100 or S&P 500. These indices represent a collection of stocks or other assets, grouped to reflect a segment of the market. Instead of picking individual assets, index investors aim to match the returns of the entire index by investing in a fund that mirrors its composition.
For example, if an investor puts money in a fund tracking the Nasdaq-100, it’s effectively spread across all companies in that index, including tech giants like Apple or Microsoft. This approach provides instant diversification, as the investor is not reliant on the performance of a single stock.
This style of investing is often seen as a straightforward way to gain exposure to broad market trends without the need for active stock picking. Many investors choose exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for this purpose, as they trade on stock exchanges like individual shares and often come with lower fees compared to actively managed funds.
How Index Investing Works
Indices are constructed by grouping a selection of assets—usually stocks—to represent a specific market or sector. For instance, the S&P 500 includes 500 large-cap US companies, weighted by their market capitalisation. This means larger companies like Apple and Amazon have a greater impact on the index performance than smaller firms. The same principle applies to indices like the FTSE 100, which represents the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Index funds aim to mirror the performance of these indices. Fund managers have two primary methods for this: direct replication and synthetic replication. With direct replication, the fund buys and holds every asset in the market, matching their exact proportions. For example, a fund tracking the Nasdaq-100 would hold shares of all 100 companies in that index.
Synthetic replication, on the other hand, uses derivatives like swaps to mimic the index's returns without directly holding the assets. This method can reduce costs but introduces counterparty risk, as it relies on financial agreements with third parties.
Because index investing doesn’t involve constant buying and selling of assets, funds typically have lower management fees compared to actively managed portfolios. Fund managers don’t need to research individual stocks or adjust holdings frequently, making this a cost-efficient option for gaining exposure to broad market trends.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Index Investing
Index investing has become a popular choice for those looking for a straightforward way to align their portfolios with market performance. However, while it offers some clear advantages, there are also limitations worth considering. Let’s break it down:
Advantages
- Diversification: By investing in an index fund, investors gain exposure to a broad range of assets, reducing the impact of poor performance from any single stock. For instance, tracking the S&P 500 spreads investments across 500 companies.
- Cost-Efficiency: Index funds often have lower fees compared to actively managed funds because they require less trading and oversight. Passive management keeps costs low, which can lead to higher net returns over time.
- Transparency: Indices are publicly listed, so investors always know which assets they are invested in and how those assets are weighted.
- Consistent Market Exposure: These funds aim to match the performance of the market segment they track, providing reliable exposure to its overall trends.
- Accessibility: As exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are traded on stock exchanges, this allows investors to buy into large markets with the same simplicity as purchasing a single stock.
Disadvantages
- Limited Flexibility: Index funds strictly follow the composition of the underlying assets, meaning they can’t respond to other market opportunities or avoid underperforming sectors.
- Market Risk: Since these funds mirror the broader market, they’re fully exposed to downturns. If the market drops, so will the fund’s value.
- Tracking Errors: Some funds may not perfectly replicate an index due to fees or slight differences in holdings, which can cause performance to deviate.
- Lack of Customisation: Broad-based investing doesn’t allow for personalisation based on individual preferences or ethical considerations.
Index Investing Strategies
Index investing isn’t just about buying a fund and waiting—an index investment strategy can be tailored to suit different goals and market conditions. Here are some of the most common strategies investors use:
Buy-and-Hold
This long-term index investing strategy involves purchasing an index fund and holding it for years, potentially decades. The aim is to capture overall market growth over time, which has historically trended upwards. This strategy works well for those who value simplicity and are focused on building wealth gradually.
Sector Rotation
Some investors focus on specific sectors within indices, such as technology or healthcare, depending on economic trends. This strategy can help take advantage of sectors expected to outperform while avoiding less promising areas. For instance, in periods of economic downturn, investors might allocate funds to the MSCI Consumer Staples Index, given consumer staples’ defensive nature.
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)
Rather than investing a lump sum, this index fund investing strategy involves putting money away regularly—say monthly—into indices, regardless of market performance. DCA reduces the impact of market volatility by spreading purchases over time.
The Boglehead Three-Fund Index Portfolio
Inspired by Vanguard founder John Bogle, this strategy is a popular approach for simplicity and diversification. It involves splitting index investments across three areas: a domestic stock fund, an international stock fund, and a bond fund. This mix provides broad market exposure and balances growth with risk. According to theory, the strategy is cost-efficient and adaptable to individual risk tolerance, making it a favourite among long-term index investors.
Hedging with Index CFDs
Traders looking for potential shorter-term opportunities might use index CFDs to hedge against broader market movements or amplify their exposure to a specific trend. With CFDs, traders can go long or short, depending on their analysis, without owning the underlying funds or shares.
Who Usually Considers Investing in Indices?
Index investing isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach, but it can suit a variety of investors depending on their goals and preferences. Here’s a look at who might find this strategy appealing:
Long-Term Investors
For those with a long investment horizon, such as individuals saving for retirement, this style of investing offers a practical way to grow wealth over time. By capturing the overall market performance, investors can build a portfolio that aligns with steady, long-term trends.
Passive Investors
If investors prefer a hands-off approach, index funds can be an option. They require minimal effort to maintain, as they simply track the performance of the market. This makes them appealing to those who want exposure to the markets without constantly managing their investments.
Cost-Conscious Investors
These passive funds typically have lower management fees than actively managed funds, making them attractive to those who want to minimise costs. Over time, this cost-efficiency might enhance overall returns.
Diversification Seekers
Investors who value broad exposure will appreciate the inherent diversification of index funds. By investing in an index, they’re spreading risks across dozens—or even hundreds—of assets, reducing reliance on any single stock.
CFD Index Trading
However, not everyone wants and can invest in funds. Index investing may be very complicated and require substantial funds. It’s where CFD trading may offer an alternative way to engage with index investing, giving traders access to markets without needing to directly own the underlying assets.
With CFDs, or Contracts for Difference, traders can speculate on the price movements of an index—such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100, or DAX—whether the market is rising or falling. This flexibility makes CFDs particularly appealing to those who want to take a more active role in the markets.
One key advantage of CFDs is the ability to trade with leverage. Leverage allows traders to control a larger position than their initial capital, amplifying potential returns. For instance, with 10:1 leverage, a $1,000 deposit can control a $10,000 position on an index. However, it’s crucial to remember that leverage also increases risk, magnifying losses as well as potential returns.
CFDs also enable short selling, allowing traders to take advantage of bearish market conditions. If a trader analyses that a specific index may decline, they can open a short position and potentially generate returns from the downturn—a feature not easily accessible with traditional funds.
CFDs can also be used to trade stocks and ETFs. For example, stock CFDs let traders focus on individual companies within an index, such as Apple or Tesla, without needing to buy the shares outright. ETF CFDs, on the other hand, allow for diversification across sectors or themes, mirroring the performance of specific industries or broader markets.
One notable feature of CFD trading is its accessibility to global markets. From the Nikkei 225 in Japan to the Dow Jones in the US, traders can access indices from around the world, opening up potential opportunities in different time zones and economies.
In short, for active traders looking to amplify their exposure to indices or explore potential short-term opportunities, CFD trading can be more suitable than traditional indices investing.
The Bottom Line
Index investing offers a practical way to gain market exposure, while trading index CFDs adds flexibility for active traders. With CFDs, you can get exposure to indices, ETFs and stocks. Moreover, you can take advantage of both rising and falling prices without the need to wait for upward trends. Whether you're aiming for long-term growth or potential short-term opportunities, combining these approaches can diversify your strategy.
With FXOpen, you can trade index, stock, and ETF CFDs from global markets, alongside hundreds of other assets. Open an FXOpen account today to explore trading with low costs and tools designed for traders of all levels. Good luck!
FAQ
What Is Index Investing?
Index investing involves tracking the performance of a specific financial market index, such as the S&P 500 or FTSE 100, by investing in funds that mirror the index. It provides broad market exposure and is often seen as a straightforward, passive investment strategy.
What Are Index Funds?
Index funds are financial instruments created to mirror the performance of a particular market index. They’re commonly structured as mutual funds or ETFs. At FXOpen, you can trade CFDs on a wide range of ETFs, including the one that tracks the performance of the S&P 500 index.
What Makes Indices Useful?
Indices offer a benchmark for understanding market performance and provide a way to diversify investments. By representing a segment of the market, they allow investors and traders to gain exposure to multiple assets in one investment.
Is It Better to Invest in Indices or Stocks?
It depends on your goals. According to theory, indices provide diversification and potentially lower risk compared to picking individual stocks, but stocks might offer higher potential returns. Many traders and investors combine both approaches for a balanced portfolio.
Does Index Investing Really Work?
As with any financial asset, the effectiveness of investing depends on an investor’s or trader’s trading skills and strategy. According to theory, the S&P 500 has averaged annual returns of about 10% over several decades, making index investments potentially effective. However, this doesn’t mean index investing will work for everyone.
What Are the Big 3 Index Funds?
The "Big 3" index funds often refer to those from Vanguard, BlackRock (iShares), and State Street (SPDR), which collectively manage a significant portion of global fund assets. For example, at FXOpen, you can trade CFDs on SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) tracking the S&P 500 stock market index and Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) which reflects the performance of the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P 500 Higher or Lower?Hello traders as we can see the S&P500 has deviated on the linear regression channel from the mean by almost 4. Calling a long here back to the mean $6000. A conformation fractal will give further credence to the trade idea
Ascending out of the Great Depression Simple ascending channel following the S&P 500 out of the Great Depression through the present day.
Tariffs aside, we hit resistance.
Market going to CRASH ???Yes, that is what the media wants you to believe. For God's sake, if they can predict the market moves , why are they where they are ? Haha......Negative news always attract people to read the news, ie. viewerships rate going up which translate to better revenue for the company. It's all about the money, who cares if the market goes up or down. So, with that as backdrop , look at the past "crashes", the 3 circled zone has a 20% or more drop, but guess what happens thereafter. It went up like a rocket.
Unless you are a trader, good at market timing, then that is another story. But, if you are a long term investor, you should be happy coz Mr Market is offering you a discount to buy its index or shares of companies.
Do you think Donald Trump is dumb? Of course not ! He knows his words weight a lot in the market and so uses it to his advantage. The tariffs while put on hold for a month will eventually reach some sort of agreement between the parties. Bleeding the companies with high tariffs will only drives the costs of US goods higher and inflation is what US cannot afford..........
So, if you are going to do dollar cost averaging, make sure you go in to buy in tranches. First 25% when in drops 10% which is now, another 25% when it drops 15-20% and last 50% when it drops more than 20%, etc. The % drop is a rough gauge, it can be 17 or 23%........
Take my words with a pinch of salt. this is no financial advice. Don't believe the doomsday porn else they will be multi millionaires sipping pina colada at the beach of some deserted island......and not behind desk churning dark, scary titles to get your eyeballs.......
Black Monday is Coming – Time to Short This Beast!Alright, listen up, traders! The storm is brewing, the signs are clear, and if you haven't noticed yet—wake up! Black Monday is knocking, and the market is looking ripe for a proper dump.
Now, I'm not saying sell your grandma’s jewelry and go all-in, but if you're looking for a juicy short entry, this might just be it. Ideally, you want to get in around that sweet spot in the yellow zone (check the chart) or even from the current levels if you're feeling extra spicy.
Risk? What Risk? (Just Kidding, Manage It!)
Stop-loss? Yeah, slap that bad boy above $6,150 on the 4-hour close. If price secures above that level, it's a no-go—cut it and move on.
Take profits? Scale out as price nosedives. No need to be greedy; let the market pay you in chunks.
The Big Picture
This ain't financial advice—just a battle plan from someone who's seen enough bloodbaths in the markets to smell the fear. High risk? Absolutely. But hey, no risk, no champagne.
Remember, risk management is king. Play it smart, lock in profits, and let the market do the heavy lifting-because when the dust settles, only disciplined traders will be left standing.
SP 500 is heading downThe S&P 500 appears to be losing its upward momentum, with a confirmed double top and key moving averages breaking down. A bearish reversal may be underway.
Market Stagnant here I forgot to add this sooner. Made the chart Jan 2nd, but anyway, I don’t see the market losing too much more over the next few years. Unfortunately, I never saw it rising much more either… target is clear, that’s just my best guess
Correction to 5145A minimum target that is set technically and not fundamentally
And the next target is the maximum target of 4815, a certain price reversal
The possibility of a price reversal from this current range is possible with news
SPX: S&P 500 Closes Below the 200-Day Moving AverageThe S&P 500 (SPX) has officially closed below its 200-day moving average, a significant technical event that traders and institutions closely monitor. This marks the first time since late 2023 that the index has broken this key support level, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
🔸 Why This Matters
For those who don't know, the 200-day SMA is widely viewed as a long-term trend indicator. A decisive close below it often triggers increased selling pressure as institutions adjust risk exposure and algorithms shift to a more defensive stance.
🔸 Bearish Momentum Building
Recent price action has been decisively bearish, with heavy selling over the last few sessions. If bulls fail to regain control, the market could be setting up for further downside, with key support levels now in focus.
🔸 Key Levels to Watch
• 200-day SMA: Now a potential resistance level
• Support zones: Recent lows and major Fibonacci retracement levels
• Volatility indicators: VIX spike and sector rotation into defensive plays (both are currently in progress)
Traders will be watching closely—will buyers step in and defend key levels, or are we looking at the start of a larger correction?
⚡ What’s your take? Is this just a temporary shakeout, or are we heading lower? Drop your thoughts below!
China Money FlowIn the context of technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels serve as pivotal tools for identifying potential support and resistance zones within a given price trajectory. By applying the Fibonacci sequence to key swing highs and lows, traders can derive a series of horizontal levels that may act as psychological barriers or areas of confluence for price action. These levels, often expressed as ratios such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%, are believed to reflect natural harmonic patterns inherent in market behavior.
When analyzing a chart, the initial step involves identifying a significant price movement, either upward or downward, which serves as the basis for plotting the Fibonacci grid. The retracement levels are then superimposed onto the chart, providing a framework for assessing potential pullback areas where price may consolidate or reverse. Concurrently, Fibonacci extension levels can be employed to project potential price targets beyond the initial swing, offering insights into where the trend might resume or exhaust.
The interplay between Fibonacci levels and other technical indicators, such as moving averages, volume profiles, or oscillators, can further enhance the robustness of the analysis. For instance, a confluence between a Fibonacci retracement level and a key moving average may strengthen the case for a potential reversal or continuation. Similarly, divergence signals from momentum indicators near Fibonacci levels can provide additional confirmation or cautionary signals.
It is important to note that Fibonacci levels are not infallible and should be interpreted within the broader context of market conditions, including trend direction, volatility, and macroeconomic factors. Traders often employ a discretionary approach, combining Fibonacci analysis with price action patterns, candlestick formations, and other qualitative factors to refine their decision-making process. Furthermore, the subjective nature of selecting swing points for Fibonacci calculations underscores the need for consistency and adaptability in application.
In summary, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels offer a structured yet flexible framework for chart trading, enabling traders to identify potential areas of interest and manage risk-reward dynamics. While their efficacy is contingent upon proper application and contextual interpretation, their widespread adoption across various asset classes and timeframes attests to their enduring relevance in technical analysis.
Let's check what happens here
SPX ready for the correctionhi traders,
This is probably not what most traders want to see but we must be realistic.
The monthly close is upon us and it's not gonna be a bullish close.
A lot of selling pressure and it may be just the beginning.
A 13 % correction on SPX is more than likely in my opinion.
If the price loses the upsloping support, we will see the mark-down pretty soon.
Stoch RSI suggests that the bears are taking control.
My target for SPX is between 5200 and 5000.
Get ready to buy cheap stocks and cheap crypto!
My Bullishness May Prove to be Terribly Wrong I've been a persistent bear into all the rallies under 5700 but 5700 I did think was a good level for a bounce.
I still expected lower off this but from as early as November I'd forecast a bounce here if we topped somewhere around 6100.
This was betting on a 1.27 hold or at least a dead cat.
That idea might have failed today.
Markets closed today at support. I don't like bear posting at lows in general and hate doing it on support ... but if this support breaks, the drop can double.
We could see a capitulation of 500 points in SPX.
It could be something we see soon.
SPX history of 10% correction in a glanceConnecting previous tops with corrections of 10%. Just eye balling the last 20 years, probably 80% of corrections have been under 10%. In that case 5500 would be that target of 10% correction. The 2018 tariff reaction made spx to drop out of the channel of 10%. even if that happens a corrective rally from 5500 is a strong probability before it falls below 5500
