Wave 5I think wave 5 started today and this week may be dramatic, but watch for bear traps around the low. I expect next week to finish the larger pattern.
SPXM trade ideas
SPX50 18 March 2025 Market Analysis
Yesterday closed as a bull bar in its upper half with a long tail above.
We said that the parabolic wedge (3 pushes - 28 Feb, 7 Mar, and 13 Mar). That increases the odds of a minor pullback. The pullback is currently underway.
The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback.
They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
Traders will see if they can continue to create follow-through buying.
The next target for the bulls are the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low.
For today, the bulls want a retest of yesterday's (Mar 17) high followed by another leg up.
The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase.
The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increases the odds of sellers above the first pullback. This remains true.
That means the first pullback would likely only be minor.
Because of the climactic selloff and parabolic wedge, the market may try to form a minor pullback which is currently underway.
Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down increases and traders will sell the pullback.
For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 17) high followed by a breakout above.
Or will the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or below yesterday's high area? If this is the case, the market may selloff in the second half of the day.
$SPX - Trading Levels for March 18 2025
Not too much to write today because I’m on Spring Break and even though I am trading I’m not at my computer as much.
You can see the levels running through the chart. They are all labelled the bear gap is there holding the 35EMA and the 200DMA - that is big.
We are Neutral bearish here being above the 30min 25EMA but under the 30min 200MA
Grab this chart and let's GO!!!
S&P500 4HR // 17 March 2025 AnalysisWe can see the S&P500 going into a downtrend.
Waiting to see what the price does when it reached the trendline and the marked support/resistance zone around the 5750.00 area.
Potential sells if we can get a good rejection off the area as well as the trendline. A good target would be the 5500.00 area.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is purely for personal reference and record keeping and should be taken as educational material only, NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. I will not be responsible for profits or loses due to this analysis.
SPX Rally or Trap? Here’s What I’m WatchingSPX Rally or Trap? Here’s What I’m Watching | SPX Analysis 18 Mar 2025
After a well-earned extra-long weekend, I’m playing a little game of catch-up.
SPX has broken out of the range, now making a strong 2-day rally—but is it the start of something bigger, or just another fakeout before the next drop?
📌 My bull trigger is locked in above 5705.
📌 My bear trigger is waiting below 5625.
📌 Larger timeframe suggests we could still see 5255 if the move fails.
With my levels set and my triggers waiting, it’s all about execution now.
Time to let the market make the first move—then I’ll strike.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
Taking a day off from the markets always makes me itch to get back in—but it also means I have to play catch-up.
Yesterday’s price action unfolded pretty much as expected, so now it’s all about execution.
📌 The Setup – Is This Breakout the Real Deal?
SPX has broken out of the recent range and rallied for two straight days—but we’ve seen this trick before.
If this move has real momentum, I’ll enter in above 5705.
If it’s another fakeout, my bear trigger at 5625 will come into play.
On the daily chart, a failure here could send us as low as 5255.
📌 The Trade Plan – Let the Market Make the First Move
✅ I’m not rushing in—I’m waiting for my levels to get hit.
✅ If we stay above 5705, I’ll take the bullish entry.
✅ If we roll back under 5625, I’m flipping back to bearish.
📌 Bigger Picture – What Happens Next?
If the breakout holds, we could see a larger trend shift.
If it fails, 5500 becomes the next major level to watch.
Either way, I’m positioned to react—not predict.
📌 Bottom Line – The Market Makes the First Move
I’ve marked my levels, I’ve set my triggers, and now it’s just a waiting game.
Time to see what unfolds.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 1987, before circuit breakers were introduced, the Dow plunged 22% in a single day—the largest one-day drop in history.
💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, playing catch-up in the markets means waking up to absolute chaos. Luckily, I only missed a Monday. 😉
S&P500 Channel Down broken. Will the 4H MA50 sustain an uptrend?The S&P500 index (SPX) broke above both its 1-month Channel Down and 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday and more importantly is so far keeping the price action sideways above it.
This is an indication that it may flip it from previously a Resistance, into Support. The signal for this bullish trend reversal came first (and a very timely one) by the 4H RSI, which formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows on March 13, a clear Bullish Divergence. That turned out to be the bottom.
Now that bullish break-out has been confirmed, we expect a quick test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Our short-term Target is 5900.
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Trump Tariffs: Strategic Impact and Investment ImplicationsIn the short to medium term, equity markets will experience significant volatility due to new tariff implementations. However, in the long term, these tariffs could lead to a stronger domestic economy, benefiting the working class and middle class while revitalizing industrial production in the U.S.
Macroeconomic Impact
Depreciation of the U.S. Dollar
A depreciating USD acts as a natural tariff, making imports more expensive while simultaneously boosting U.S. exports. Countries with weaker currencies relative to the dollar, such as Mauritius (where our currency has depreciated by nearly 40% against the USD), already experience higher costs when purchasing from U.S. retailers like Amazon.
Inflation Trends and Precious Metals
Despite widespread fears of inflation—reflected in gold prices reaching all-time highs—actual inflation remains relatively stable (~2%). Factors such as import/export balances, currency devaluation, and consumer demand will likely offset inflationary pressures. Once investors recognize this, precious metals may undergo a correction.
Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve's traditional mechanism of recession control—interest rate adjustments—is currently ineffective. With reports of declining payroll numbers, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates to prevent a mass exodus of aging investors (boomers) from the stock market. However, this time, rate cuts may not drive asset inflation as they did during COVID-19.
Investment Strategy: Navigating Market Changes
Short-Term: Uncertainty leading to stability
Bear Market Risks: Until tariff negotiations stabilize and currency depreciation takes effect, expect equity market volatility.
Investment Approach:
Buy high-quality corporate bonds in consumer staples with exposure to multiple currencies.
Hold cash reserves across multiple currencies to mitigate risk.
Prioritizing fixed-income securities (bonds, term deposits).
Consider real estate in stable emerging markets, where high-net-worth investors may shift investment focus.
Mid-Term: Seeds start to reap
Sector Focus: multinational companies benefiting from U.S. exports, particularly in non-tariff-heavy industries.
Stock Selection: Identify firms that continued capital investment during the downturn and are now positioned for growth.
Long-Term (2028+)
Monitoring Indicators:
Track interest rate trends and their impact on asset accumulation by wealthy investors.
Observe precious metal prices as an indicator of capital reallocation to assets.
Investment Approach:
Consider REITs and undervalued real estate investments.
Double down on assets if economic policies shift under a Democratic administration.
SPX500 Move Up Expected!
HI,Traders !
SPX500 made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 5640.66 and the
Breakout is confirmed
Because the daily candle
Closed above the key level
So on the market open
We will be expecting a
Local pullback and then
A strong move up !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
S&P 500 Reaches Major Support – Will Buyers Take Control?SP:SPX is experiencing a corrective move after rejecting from the upper boundary of the ascending channel. The price has now reached the lower boundary of the channel, aligning with a key demand zone. This confluence of trendline support and horizontal demand increases the probability of a bullish reaction from this level.
If buyers maintain control at this level, we could see a rebound toward the 5,936 level, which aligns with the midline of the ascending channel. This level could serve as a short-term target within the current bullish market structure.
However, failure to hold above this support zone could invalidate the bullish outlook, and signal further downside. Traders should monitor bullish confirmation signals, such as rejection wicks, rising volume, or bullish engulfing patterns, before entering long positions.
If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts here!
S&P500 First bullish break out after a monthS&P500 crossed today above both the 1 month Channel Down and the MA200 (1h).
The latter was intact since February 21st.
The MA100 (1h) has the potential to turn now into the short term Support.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 5900 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
Tips:
1. The market just formed a MA50/100 (1h) Bullish Cross. The first since Feb 13th.
Please like, follow and comment!!
MMBMThe market gives. It always did, you just have to know when to take, put that philosophy in your notebook. It was a Monday today and there was anticipation for consolidation but that’s not the case for all markets. Once you get familiar with an asset there’s no harm in looking around. Your set up will come, you just have to know when to catch it.
S&P INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5715Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5715
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5920
Support Level 1: 5500
Support Level 2: 5390
Support Level 3: 5255
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX 500 17 March Market Analysis
The weekly candlestick closed in its upper half with a long tail below.
The market formed a parabolic wedge (3 pushes - 28 Feb, 7 Mar, and 13 Mar). That increases the odds of a minor pullback.
The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback.
They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
Until they can do that, traders may not want to buy aggressively.
The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low.
The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increases the odds of sellers above the first pullback.
For now, because of the climactic selloff and parabolic wedge, the market may try to form a minor pullback.
Traders will see the strength of the buying pressure. If it is strong, they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
If the pullback lacks follow-through buying, the odds of another leg down increases and traders will sell the pullback.
S&P 500 : How Long Could the Stock Market Correction Last?S&P 500 Analysis: How Long Could the Stock Market Correction Last?
Six days ago, we noted that the Nasdaq 100 had entered a correction phase. Now, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) has followed suit, closing more than 10% below its 19 February peak on Thursday, officially confirming a correction.
Statistically, according to research by Yardeni Research:
→ Market corrections occur quite frequently—since 1929, the S&P 500 has experienced 56 corrections.
→ Only 22 of those corrections turned into bear markets, defined as a drop of 20% or more from recent record highs.
S&P 500 Analysis: How Long Could This Correction Last?
On one hand, Friday’s market rebound suggests that buyers are stepping in.
On the other hand:
→ US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that there are "no guarantees" the world's largest economy will avoid a recession. This came just a week after US President Donald Trump refused to rule out such a scenario.
→ The current correction has lasted 22 days so far, whereas historically, the average correction lasts 115 days and results in a 13.8% decline from the peak.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
The price is forming an upward channel around the median line, which alternates between acting as support and resistance (marked in blue).
→ Price action suggests that bulls are struggling to hold above the 6,100 level. In February, they failed to push towards the upper boundary of the channel.
→ Since the price has reached the lower boundary of the channel, there is a possibility that bearish momentum may start to weaken.
However, if the price loses support at the lower boundary of the channel, this would be a bearish signal from a technical perspective, indicating the potential for a deeper correction in the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Markets Open, Guinness Poured—Can SPX Deliver a Perfect Finish?Markets Open, Guinness Poured—Can SPX Deliver a Perfect Finish? | SPX Analysis 17 Mar 2025
SPX feels like it’s stuck on a broken record—a little up, a little down, an occasional intraday yo-yo… and then back to square one. But this time, history might repeat itself—again.
📌 A bullish breakout isn’t off the table, but it needs to clear 5650.
📌 Until then, I’m riding the bear swing lower, watching for a final push.
📌 Friday’s rally took us to the upper range, but futures are hinting at weakness.
I’ve rolled some experimental GEX trades since I’ll be away from the desk Monday, checking in from St. Paddy’s Day festivities.
And if we get one last bearish flush while I’m raising a pint anf splitting the G? Even better. 🍻
Let’s break it down…
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
At this point, the market feels like a Netflix show that’s dragging out an episode—we know something big is coming, but when?
📌 The Setup – A Familiar Pattern, A Familiar Plan
We’ve seen this before.
SPX is back in the same range, teasing another bearish repeat.
Friday’s rally was nice, but futures are already softening.
ADD is at its bullish extreme—suggesting a drop or more sideways churn.
The question is whether this is just a rerun or the start of something new.
📌 The Trade Plan – Patience Pays… and So Does my Guinness
I’m favouring the bearish move for now because:
✅ I still have an open bear swing that’s in play.
✅ I’ve rolled some Friday GEX trades to extend my duration.
✅ A move lower to 5550/5500 would be ideal for exits.
As for the bullish swing, if it plays out:
✅ I won’t need to take action until Tuesday.
✅ 5650 needs to break, and a clear pullback entry to confirm.
📌 Looking Ahead – Let the Market Come to Me
For now, I’m happy letting the market do its thing while I enjoy my long weekend.
If SPX pushes lower, I’ll cash out and move on.
If it grinds sideways, my positions stay in place.
And if it rallies, I’ll reassess on Tuesday.
Either way, my trades are set, my strategy is solid, and my Guinness is cold. 🍀🍻
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The New York Stock Exchange was once closed every St. Patrick’s Day—until 1953, when they decided traders probably shouldn’t get an official day off for drinking.
💡 The Lesson? Markets may evolve, but traders will always find a reason to take a break when they can. 🍻
SPX : The Bottom is not IN yetMost likely we'll bounce from here and will get some relief on our bags. But don't get too much excited at that point, According to me it will be the time to de-risk some positions. I'm expecting this bounce to be a lower high and price to trade lower.
Reason : We have broken the weekly structure which is not a small thing. Last time when we broke the Weekly structure we saw a bottom at 27% decrease. I'm not saying that it will drop 25% this time as well but this downside movement ( that we have experienced ) is not enough. I'm expecting at least 15% drop.
Invalidation : Invalidation of this idea is weekly closing above 6,121. Until it doesn't happen, I'm bearish on equities.
GL!
Indices -MOnday 17, march 2025Liquidity Sweep & Rejection:
Price reached a high near 5,631.4 and got rejected from a supply zone (highlighted red box).
This suggests a potential liquidity grab before a reversal.
Entry Confirmation:
The price has started forming lower highs and lower lows after the rejection.
There's a consolidation after the rejection, possibly forming a distribution phase before moving lower.
SPX: no rate cuts in MarchThe negative market sentiment on the US equity markets continued during the previous week, where Friday brought some relief. A lot of mixed economic news, as well as stories regarding new trade tariffs continued to shape the market sentiment. The US inflation in February was in line with market expectations of 0,2% in February. New jobs openings of 7,74M in February were a bit higher from market estimates, however, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for March, showed a bit surprising inflation expectations of 4,9%. This was higher from the previous post as well as the market forecast.
The S&P 500 dropped to its lowest weekly level at 5.513, from where it started its reversal toward the upside, ending the Fridays trading session at 5.638. Tech companies managed to mark one day in the week with a positive sentiment. Nvidia gained 5%, Meta was up by 3%, and Tesla was traded higher by 4%. Regardless of Friday`s positive sentiment, the week ahead might bring some challenges. The Fed will hold its meeting on March 19th, and will bring its view on current economic conditions. Volatility might continue with US indexes. At this moment, FedWatch is showing a 97% odds that the Fed will hold interest rates unchanged at their March m meeting.
SP no RADAR
Stay alert! If the S&P 500 breaks this region, we might see a buying opportunity, targeting the last bearish move’s key zone. 🎯
🔹 Final target: The highest area of the downtrend structure.
🔸 Key levels: A and B are potential resistance zones where selling pressure could emerge. It's crucial to manage risk and watch price action closely! 👀
⚠️ Reminder: This analysis is not financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management! 🚀
What do you think about this setup? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🔥
📌 Follow @david.giansante for more insights!
