SPX sideways for 4 weeksExpecting the main indices will experience some sideways motions for the next +/- 4 weeks. Top might be between 5,950 and 6,000. This doesn't mean ALL stock will be sideways. *(Defense sector seems very bullish)
Ultimately after wave 2 is complete Markets will have a good consolation / launching pad for Wave 3.
SPXM trade ideas
SPX headed for a correctionMoody's has downgraded US Debt. This news is a catalyst for a overdue correction (Or reversal?)
I published this script some days back. It can predict price inflection points very well
Based on the past behaviour, I can say we are heading for a correction technically and the fill the gap of last week
Top 10 Rookie Trading Mistakes (And How to Laugh at Your Own)So you’ve just discovered trading. Maybe it started with a Reddit thread. Maybe someone said “trading Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is like printing money.” Or maybe you just liked the name “Shiba Inu” and figured memecoins was a good investment thesis.
Either way, welcome. This is where dreams are made, lost, rebought on leverage, and then tweeted about.
The markets are ruthless, but also educational — if you’re humble enough to learn and bold enough to laugh when you inevitably light your first $100 on fire by accidentally shorting Apple NASDAQ:AAPL during a breakout.
This article is for you. The new trader. The (overconfident?) beginner. Let’s talk about the top 10 rookie trading mistakes — and how to laugh at your own before the market does it for you.
1️⃣ Mistaking Luck for Skill (aka “Call Me Baby Buffett”)
Your first trade is a win. Your second is too. Maybe it’s a meme stock . Maybe it’s a hot IPO. Either way, you’re convinced you’ve cracked the matrix.
You tell your friends: “I just have a feel for this stuff.”
What actually happened: You got lucky in a trending market. And now you're about to go full Titanic on a position you didn’t research, because hey — you're "on a roll."
What you can do insead, and probably have a laugh about it years later, is screenshot your account right now in your very early steps. Frame it. Label it: Exhibit A in Emotional Risk Management.
2️⃣ The Revenge Trade: “I’ll Win It Back”
You took a loss. A big one. Your first real slap from the market. So what do you do? Walk away? Reflect? Journal it?
Nah. You go in twice as hard on the next setup. Same ticker. Same direction. More size.
Spoiler alert: It doesn’t end well.
That type of spiraling behavior usually happens when you think the market owes you something. It doesn’t. Not even an apology.
Imagine explaining your decision to a judge. “Your Honor, I lost money shorting Tesla, so naturally I doubled down five minutes later.” Case dismissed — and that’s why revenge trading is so dangerous .
3️⃣ FOMO FOMO FOMO
A green candle pops up on your watchlist. It’s moving. Fast. You missed the breakout but you still click “buy” because you’re not missing this train.
You get in. It tops. You hold. It drops. You panic. It rebounds… just after you sell.
Classic rookie cycle.
Why does this happen? The fear of missing out turns off your brain faster than a margin call. Call it what it is — chasing. Say it out loud like it’s therapy: “Hi, this is Patrick and I like to buy things 10% too late.” Maybe it helps.
4️⃣ “I’m Married to This Trade”
It started with a spark. The chart looked good. The RSI whispered sweet nothings. You thought, “This could be the one.”
So you bought. Then bought again. And when it dipped harder than your last relationship, you said, “It’s okay, we’re just going through a rough patch.”
Before you knew it, you weren’t trading — you were in a toxic relationship with a ticker.
You’ve abandoned your edge for emotion. Confirmation bias kicks in, and instead of managing risk, you’re managing denial. You stop analyzing the chart and start defending it like it’s your firstborn.
If you’re talking about a stock (or anything else on a chart) the way your friend talks about their ex — “It just needs time, I know it’ll come back” — you’re not trading. You’re coping.
5️⃣ All In, All the Time
Risk management? Never heard of that. You found a setup that “can’t fail,” so you went 100% in. On margin. On a Friday.
What could go wrong?
Answer: Everything. Especially when your trade gaps against you on Monday morning after Trump has said tariffs are changing once again.
That’s when you know you’re mistaking conviction for strategy. They’re not the same.
6️⃣ Ignoring the Bigger Picture
You nailed the 15-minute chart. Gorgeous breakout. But somehow, you forgot to check the daily — where your “breakout” is just a lower high in a brutal downtrend.
Oops.
Think about whether you've got tunnel vision. You went along with your short-term bias instead of checking the bigger picture when things are different.
What you can do instead, is make a rule: before every trade, zoom out. Literally. Leave no timeframe unexamined (at least up to the daily frame).
7️⃣ Trading Every Day Like It’s the Super Bowl
New traders think they have to trade every day. Every single session. Every little move.
And when there’s no good setup? They make one up, trying to whip up trendlines to justify their trading.
What happens next: Boredom trades. Overtrading.
Why it happens: You're addicted to the action, not the outcome.
What can you do instead? Write down the number of trades you made last week. Multiply it by the average commission you paid. Now imagine what you could’ve bought instead. And, what could be even better, consider taking a lesson in patience .
8️⃣ Blind Faith in Indicators
The RSI is at 18. The MACD just crossed. Stochastic says “maybe.”
So you buy. No price action. No trend. Just… vibes and indicators.
Result: You become a victim of the “indicator trap” — relying so heavily on these lines you forget to read the actual chart — momentum, market sentiment, broader technicals, and fundamentals.
What’s a better approach is to treat your indicators like seasoning, not the main dish. The best trades come from confluence, not wishful thinking dressed up as technical analysis.
9️⃣ The Trading Journal You Never Wrote
If you can’t remember why you entered a trade, you’re not at your best. Here’s a pro tip:
Keep a trading journal . One that records your thesis, entry, stop, target, and outcome. You know — the boring stuff that makes you better.
Why is that important? Journaling builds discipline. Patterns. Self-awareness. It’s never too late to start your journal!
🔟 Expecting to Get Rich Quick
This is the big one. The rookie mindset that kills most portfolios: I’m gonna turn $500 into $5,000 in a month.
You won’t. Sorry.
And even if you do, you won’t keep it.
Trading rewards patience, process, and preservation. Not YOLO bets and delusions of grandeur.
Try looking at your P&L like a diet. If you expect six-pack abs in a week, you’ll burn out and crash your progress. If you focus on habits? You’ll outlive the hype.
📚 Conclusion: Every Trader Starts Stupid
Let’s be clear — all of us have made these mistakes, even the big shots out there that run billion-dollar funds. The only difference between a rookie and a pro is how fast you learn from them. Or better yet — how fast you can laugh at them, document them, and evolve.
Because the truth is, the market is the most expensive comedy club on Earth. And every trade is a new punchline.
So if you're new, mess up. Take notes. Stay humble. And above all — enjoy the chaos. One day you’ll look back at your Doge CRYPTOCAP:DOGE top-buy with fondness.
After all, it’s only a mistake if you didn’t learn. Otherwise, it’s just tuition paid for by your trading account.
What’s a mistake we didn’t mention? Share your tips, tricks, mistakes, and lessons in the comment section!
$SPX Weekly – 2025 Trendline Bounce Confirmed Again📈 The S&P 500 ( VANTAGE:SP500 ) just bounced cleanly off the long-term trendline that has defined this bull market since the COVID low in 2020.
🟢 Touchpoints:
March 2020 🦠
June 2022 (inflation bottom)
October 2023 (Fed pause)
Now again in 2025
That’s four successful tests in five years. Price action suggests that this trendline remains the key support for bulls — as long as it holds, the trend remains intact.
But if it breaks in the future… buckle up.
S&P500: VIX confirmed new Bull Cycle, eyes 9,800.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.480, MACD = 76.110, ADX = 38.627) and has technically fulfilled all conditions to extend this recovery and transition into a new Bull Cycle. VIX shows with its massive spike and then aggressive retreat that the correction's bottom is in and is in fact similar to March 2020 (COVID) and March 2009 (subprime crisis). The Bull Cycles after those were similar, the smallest was +105.62%. In accordance to that, we have a long term TP = 9,800.
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S&P 500 Index Most Bullish Signal In 15 YearsThis is why it is very clear, certain, that the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is set to grow in the coming months. Last week produced the highest volume session, on the bullish side, since April/May 2010, that's 15 years. Back then, when this signal showed up, this index went to grow for years non-stop.
The SPX also produced the strongest weekly session in several decades, maybe the strongest week ever, and a bounce happened (support found) exactly at the 0.618 retracement Fib.
This is all we need to know. When the bulls enter the market and do so with force, it is because the market is set to grow. The correction produced decline of 21%. This is pretty standard. The fact that the correction happened really fast, it means that it will also have a fast end.
The low is in. The correction is over. The S&P 500 Index is set to grow.
You can be certain. If you have any doubts, just ask the chart.
Namaste.
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5/19/2025 sp500It was a great purchase, I bought it based on the balanced fvg on the larger graphic times and the liquidity that needed to be captured on the buying side, it would be better if I posted on lower timeframes to have a better idea of the liquidity regions but it is not possible to post below 15m, hope you guys enjoy
Could the US500 be setting up for a bounce?Hello,
The US500 is trading near the trend line, a key area where technical investors will be looking for a bounce back. While the current market remains choppy due to tariffs from the US president, technical analysis does offer us key areas where we can look for entries going forward.
What is certain is that this is not the time to panic and sell all your held positions. As always, during moments like these composure + a clear plan are your best line of defence. Probabilistic thinking as well can go a long way in identifying great opportunities. We’re all dealing with known and unknown variables now, and there’s no shame in saying, "I don’t know."
For me I see opportunities in the S&P especially because the news is already out. Additionally, we are coming into earnings season when the market is at the bottom. Companies that show resilience will attract early investors and the index will bounce back. So please keep your long-term view.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
S&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit RatingS&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit Rating
On Friday, 16 May, after markets had closed, Moody’s Ratings announced a downgrade of the long-term sovereign credit rating of the United States from the highest level of Aaa to Aa1. The key reasons cited by Moody’s were the rising national debt and interest payments, as well as expectations of a further increase in the budget deficit. Notably:
→ The downgrade was hardly a surprise. A similar move was made by Standard & Poor’s back in 2011, while Fitch Ratings followed suit in August 2023.
→ The official response may be seen as reassuring for market participants. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down concerns about the downgrade in an interview with NBC News, calling credit ratings “lagging indicators” and placing the blame on the previous administration.
→ Despite the downgrade, Moody’s acknowledged the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency and stated that the United States “retains exceptional credit strengths, such as the size, resilience, and dynamism of its economy.”
Stock Market Reaction
The announcement triggered a negative market reaction, reflected in falling prices during Monday morning’s opening session. E-mini S&P 500 futures (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) retreated, as indicated by the arrow on the chart, pulling back from the highs reached by Friday’s close.
Last week, we pointed out signs of slowing momentum in the S&P 500 rally. Could the decline continue further?
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
By drawing lines A, B, and C through the May rally peaks, we can observe a gradual flattening of the slope — suggesting that the bulls are losing momentum and confidence.
The price is currently trading between local lines C and C1, but it is reasonable to assume that the opening of the US session may bring renewed bearish pressure — potentially pushing the price lower, towards the bottom boundary of the broader upward channel (marked in blue).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Has this strategy works for you ?I was quite surprised when one of my followers shared that buying into SPX is boring and has nothing much worthy of bragging rights in social media. Wait, you mean you are buying or selling just because you want to brag? For ego sake ? Value at ??????
Ok, so I am old school and are unlikely to notice stocks like POPMART or Nvidia for that matter. Some of my friends are just busy trading on small time frame of 1-5 mins daily on these stocks, it requires skills, eye power and definitely not for me.
If you had invested in SPX when I mentioned it here , here or here
When you are clear why you are buying and have the conviction that it will continue to pay you handsomely in the long term, then you have lesser headache of searching for quality companies like UNH which plunge so much lately ! Really, you are OK with it after the death of one CEO and then the next is resigning and then getting sued for fraud. Market first react to it be it truth or rumours and then self correct later, that is the brutal and hard to accept for many.
Consider the SPX index like a basket of different fruits that yield you good benefits in the long term. The probability of ALL these stocks or majority falling 10% within a day is RARE except 9th April (thanks to President Trump) but if you ignore that and took that opportunity to DCA, you are well rewarded as data shown.
So now, the market is again haunting you that another selldown is coming - downgrade of US AA1 rating by Moody .
Good, if it comes down another 5-10% , then it is another great opportunity to buy more at cheaper price. The reasons many are afraid to go LONG is because they let the media scared the hell out of them. Bro, that is how media make their money - viewership.
News must be sensational, ya ? The bloodier, creating more fear, uncertainty , the better and the more people hooked on reading, forwarding and commenting on it.
So, perhaps the market will react to this negative news and come down and close the gap around 5666 price level. That would be nice to buy more. Be patient and wait for the green dotted bullish trend line be broken down first.
Of course, maybe the Gen Z finds this strategy too slow, giving peanut returns year on year and prefer to long crypto where overnight millionaires are made and they were sold that dream, fast and furious.
Do what suits you but as always, know what you are doing and protect yourself - NEVER EVER borrow to invest/trade, NEVER EVER go on MARGIN no matter how smart/confident you are on the trade, always use a Stop LOSS.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 16 May 2025
- S&P 500 broke the resistance level 5900.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6100.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the resistance level 5900.00, the former support from January and February.
The breakout of the resistance level 5900.00 should accelerate the active short-term impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of April.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6100.00, which reversed the price multiple times from December to March, as can be seen below.
US500 - Let the Bulls Strive!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in red.
Moreover, the blue zone is a strong support and structure!
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPX500 H4 | Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,789.71 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,630.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,994.08 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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SPX500 Hits Major Supply Zone – Will the Bears Take Over?The S&P 500 (SPX500) just tapped a significant supply zone between 5945–5952, a key level where previous selling pressure led to strong bearish moves. Price is currently showing signs of exhaustion at the top of this zone on the 4H timeframe, and we may be witnessing a potential reversal setup.
Key Levels:
Supply Zone (Resistance): 5945 – 5952
Mid-Support: 5478
Demand Zone (Strong Support): 4916 – 4920
Possible Scenarios:
1. Rejection from the supply zone could trigger a pullback to 5478, and if that breaks, the next bearish target would be the demand zone at 4916.
2. If the bulls break and close above 5952 with strong momentum, we might see new highs, but volume confirmation is needed.
Watch for:
Bearish candlestick patterns in the supply zone
Reversal confirmation with RSI or MACD divergence
Volume drop on the breakout attempt
Red Arrows Mark: High-probability downside targets in case of reversal.
With key economic events marked on the chart (highlighted on May 22), volatility is expected. A fakeout or whipsaw move could be in play—stay cautious!
Are you bullish or bearish on SPX500? Drop your thoughts below and don’t forget to like and follow for more institutional-level analysis!
#SPX500 #S&P500 #LuxAlgo #SupplyDemand #TradingView #Forex #Stocks #PriceAction #SmartMoney #TechnicalAnalysis #SP500Analysis
05/05 SPX Weekly Playbook - GEX Zone Outlook🔮 What-If Scenarios for This Week – Based on GEX Structure until Firday
Last week’s market momentum pushed the S&P 500 up by almost 3%, effectively erasing the price gap left behind on Liberation Day. The index also strung together nine straight days of gains—something we haven’t seen since late 2004.
Meanwhile, implied volatility dropped significantly, with the VIX touching its lowest level since the holiday, falling to around 22.5.
Several factors seem to have fueled this bullish tone, including a more measured approach from Trump on trade policies and strong quarterly results from major tech names like Microsoft and Meta.
Still, the nature of the buying raises questions—was this a thoughtful rotation, or just a broad sweep of optimism?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
🔄 Chop Zone: 5650 – 5670 (wide transition zone)
🔹 Gamma Flip: 5615
🔺 Key Call Wall: 5725 (5800 potential shift)
🔻 Key Put Wall: 5500 (5400 major support below)
🔼 Upside Path
IF > 5670 → transition cleared →
➡️ 5700 stall / reaction
IF > 5725 → call wall breached →
➡️ Path to 5750 / 5775 → stall at 5800 (largest net call OI)
IF > 5800 → gamma resistance breaks down →
➡️ 5825/5850 zone opens up
🔽 Downside Path
IF < 5615 → gamma flip triggered →
➡️ 5500 = battle zone (massive put wall + high negative GEX)
IF < 5500 → negative gamma squeeze likely →
➡️ Stall zone: 5450 → flush to 5400
IF < 5400 → high-volatility regime →
➡️ Possible acceleration to 5375 / 5340 depending on IV spike
⚖️ Neutral Setup
IF 5650–5670 holds → dealer hedging = balanced →
➡️ Ideal for non-directional spreads / theta plays
➡️ Wait for breakout confirmation above 5670 or below 5615
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
🔍 Final Thoughts
We’ve seen a sharp rally since the Trump trade war scare, with barely any meaningful pullback. The market appears to be looking for one—as a breath. Based on current GEX positioning, there’s significantly more downside hedging than upside, especially in the mid-term May expirations.
That doesn’t necessarily mean we crash—but it does mean that moves lower can accelerate faster, while upward breakouts may require more energy or time. In this environment, consider:
Bearish or neutral spreads (put debit spreads, call credit spreads)
Volatility-based strategies
Avoiding naked upside trades unless we see a strong reclaim of 5725+
Stay safe and adapt—GEX doesn’t tell direction, but it does tell where the fire might start, beacuse of reflexting to hedging activity.