SPX mid term viewIn my view SPX short term reversal will start in 5870 area to test 5500 area before resuming bullish trend to ATH 6250 area in feb/march 2025 where massive crash will start
SPXM trade ideas
S&P 500, time to buy? where is the support for 1 day chartsTake noted the below is not an investment advise, bet at your own risk. I am solely not responsible for any of your loses in money or assets.
The Current S&P 500 price is 4320.05 as of 24 September 2023.
The S&P 500 have potential to drop to 3900 to 3850 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between 4618.28 to about 3900 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 4618.28. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 4804.36.
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 3900 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 3900 and head lower to a weaker support at 3534.39. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
3900 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of S&P 500. I would only start buying a little at 3900 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
SPX Short: Peak ReachedFollowing my previous short call on SPX (SPX Short: Seeking Peak) where I gave a lengthy explanation of the technicals and gave a peak target, this idea is telling you that the peak is reached and now is a fabulous opportunity to enter the market. The stop is above the high made today.
Do take note that I’ve changed the Fibonacci extension level such that wave 5 = 1.618x Wave 1.
Of course, in order to execute this trade, you may need to start trading during Asia hours when the CFDs and Futures open for trading. No matter what, remember the stop in case this idea is wrong.
BROAD MARKET UPDATE - OCTOBER 2W CLOSEThis is just a smash and grab market analysis and some projections for Gold, SPX and Bitcoin. Havent been at my best lately so been taking some time off charts but mostly focusing on work stuff.
US500 evening updateThis count has US500 in wave ((5)), with key support at 5677.8.
I have area in green ellipse as a complete five-wave structure, with 1>3>5. This remains valid as long as price remains below 5829.7.
If price remains below 5829.7, then will look for corrective structure to finish above 5677.8 for a wave (2) of ((5)) or an impulsive structure to take out support at 5677.8.
If 5829.7 holds as resistance and 5677.8 breaks as support, it would suggest five-wave structure from 5 August low is complete.
Looking For Next Market Top AgainLooking for next top
Submillennium 1
Grand Supercycle 5 - green
Supercycle 1
Cycle 5 - orange
Primary 5 - blue
Intermediate 5 - pink
Minor 5 - yellow
Minute 5 - green
I will try to find the next top off simply modified wave theory.
First we need to set the baseline. I prefer the chart SPX500USD as it encompasses 23 hour trading during the week and can capture movement not always distinguishable in the SP:SPX chart.
My first step is always to identify the location of wave 3 (if it exists). I do this by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder v2 in conjunction with my RSI triple confirm indicator and a simple RSI 9.
My wave 3 indicator will have a painted background at potential wave 3 locations, blue background for bearish reversals and pink for bullish reversals. My triple confirm RSI should signal in conjunction with the actual wave 3 point, red for bearish reversals and green for bullish reversals. My wave 3 indicator tends to spot wave 3 of 3 by displaying a gap between painted backgrounds. These indicators signal upon market close and are not considered finalized signals until the next bar begins.
My baseline is in the 2 month chart. I have worked through the historical SPX chart and believe we are in the fifth and final wave (Grand Supercycle 5) of a larger structure (Sub Millennium 1) that began in the 1800s. This specific wave 5 began at the market bottom in 2009, and we are only in the first (Supercycle 1) of five waves to the upside. I do not expect a catastrophic market top for many decades to come.
This chart picks up around 2004 to the current time. We are likely in Cycle wave 5 which began at the market low in October 2022. I have determined Cycle wave 3 to have ended at the peak at the beginning of 2022 based on the wave 3 indicator and RSI agreeing on a reversal point. In the moment, I would not have agreed the market topped in January 2022 as the indicators were still signaling. It is only on the preceding bar not producing a signal that an event is confirmed. Next I will determine common wave extensions off (Fibonacci levels) of Cycle wave 3's movement which began at the low in January 2016 at 1,806.25 and ended at 4,820.20 in January 2022. Wave 3 moved 3,013.95 points. Cycle wave 5 could move 123.6% to 138.2% of Wave 3's movement. These means a potential endpoint is between 5,531.49-5,971.53. This will be the orange outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next I will try to identify a current Primary wave 3 inside of Cycle wave 5. My indicators point to Primary wave 3 ending around the mid-July 2024 on the 2-day chart based on the gap in the wave 3 indicators. There is not an RSI 3 signal in the 2-day chart for Primary wave 3, but there was one for Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 3 around February 12, 2024. We can attempt to confirm this by seeing where the end of Intermediate wave 5's movement extended too. If Intermediate wave 3 began January 5, 2024 and ended March 29, 2024, Intermediate wave 5 topped close to 161.8% of Intermediate wave 3's movement as seen below:
Based on this assumption, Primary wave 3 was likely over by mid-July 2024. The next Fibonacci wave extension levels for Cycle wave 5 could see this wave end between 108-123.6% of Primary wave 3's movement. This places a potential top between 5,806.48-6,052.34. This will be the light blue outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We will next move inside of Primary wave 5 which possibly began at the low from the beginning of August 2024. In looking for Intermediate wave 3 inside of Primary wave 5, the indicators point to Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 occurring on September 19, 2024 and the Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 occurring on September 13. If we find the Intermediate wave 5 extension from this Intermediate wave 3, a potential top sits between 5,816.26-5,936.51. This will be the pink outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next we try to identify where we are in Intermediate wave 5. The 2-hour chart here indicates a possible Minor wave 3 occurring on October 9, 2024. A possible Minor wave 5 extension from here is a top between 5,825.38-5,868.50. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We can attempt to go a final level deeper inside of Minor wave 5. We currently have Minute wave 3 indications based on the high from earlier today at 5826.90. If this is the end of Minute wave 3, Minute 5 could top between 5,834.16-5,857.61. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Based on a this wave set being over a small timeframe, this top could happen before next Tuesday. This is zone of interest for a near-term top.
This is purely theoretical, but Israel will likely strike at Iran soon. Iran has claimed they would respond quickly, but the prior instances saw long delays in the response. If Iran has an immediate response, a full on conflict would be underway in the Middle East. Not all wars are bad, but this one would likely impact oil and depending on the duration likely impact economies around the world. A contained conflict between a few nations likely would not spiral into a larger conflict, however, strong alliances on other side could turn this into a much greater event, closer to a world war situation. As drastic as this is, it could explain a potential near-term top. If conflict does not break out, we will likely see a short-term market top before continued movement higher and higher. Time will tell. Enjoy!
LETS GO.. TIME TO FALL!!The time is up. Indexes must fall now. Everyone on CNBC has agreed with one another that the market will go up now, and there is nothing to stop it.
Recap of my NY session with a DJ30 Long tradeTextbook 3 star inside day breakout setup, spotted well before and traded accordingly
100 years parallel channel SP500We are nearing the upper resistance of a century-old parallel channel on the S&P 500 (logarithmic scale). Not financial advice (NFA).
S&P Analysis London was volatile but not clear thing in price action. I will focus only on Newyork session So that means Only session trade No day trade No weekly trade.
S&P 500: Inflation and Volatility on the Road to New HighsThe recent release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that core inflation unexpectedly rose from 3.2% to 3.3% in September, raising concerns about a possible reaction from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors fear that this increase could pressure the Fed to adopt a less dovish stance, even if that means hurting the labor market and the broader economy. The market reacted in a mixed fashion. The S&P 500 closed slightly down 0.21%, after a session marked by hesitation and volatility. However, despite weak employment data and high inflation, US futures showed a slight uptrend, suggesting that the market is not yet convinced of a radical change in Fed policy. In the bond market, two-year bond yields rose above 4%, while the dollar index ended the day virtually unchanged.
Today's Economic News in the U.S.
Several key U.S. reports are expected today, which could impact all three indices. Notable among them are the New York State Manufacturing Index, the NOPA Crush Report, and Consumer Inflation Expectations. There will also be bond auctions, and investors will be watching for comments from Fed member Philip Kugler.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): The Dow Jones fell 0.14%, affected by losses in sectors such as telecommunications and industry. Among the most affected, Boeing fell 1.84% and Home Depot lost 1.47%. On the other hand, Amazon rose 0.80%.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 also posted losses of 0.21%, with sectors such as energy and technology showing large fluctuations. CrowdStrike Holdings rose 5.58%, while First Solar fell 9.29%.
Nasdaq Composite: The Nasdaq retreated just 0.04%, driven by the positive performance of BloomZ Inc. which rose an impressive 87.36%, although JetAI fell 11.77%.
Looking at the S&P500 (Ticker AT: USA500) , the index has moved sideways since June 17, on September 19 it pierced double price resistance. On the other hand the long term channel tells us that it has moved through the mean of the channel on the upside. Its RSI is 60.79% and the Check Point is around 5476 points. If we look at the cross of averages, the 200 average is below the 100 and 50 averages. The bolinger bands seem to be narrowing which may show a possible bullish continuation signal towards the high of 5800 points.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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SPx /Reversal from All-Time High: Key Levels at 5781Technical Analysis:
The price has reversed from the all-time high recorded yesterday, stabilizing below 5781. This decline suggests a potential drop to the 5756 and 5732 levels. Alternatively, a bullish trend may be triggered if a 4-hour candle closes above 5781.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5781
Resistance Levels: 5820, 5863, 5891
Support Levels: 5759, 5732, 5708
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 5781
Bullish above 5781
SPX Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,780.02.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 5,678.77 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Sp500 between 6500 to 7500 by Summer 2025My TA indicates that Sp500 is in two rising channeles supported by the 100DMA and the 50DMA.
Apart from those DMAs, these two rising channels are acting as a support, which makes me believe that we are going to see a final blow-off top that will drag Sp500 to 20% increase from now.
This will also help stock market and crypto reach new ATHs. Once this price action is reached we will probably see a continue sell off for a few years.
$SPX Tomorrow’s Implied Move for PPISP:SPX Tomorrow’s Implied Move for PPI
Alright, y’all. Implied move over here for tomorrow is between 5740 (and the 30min 200MA is just underneath that to 5820 (which is just above all time highs.
We consolidated back to the 35EMA and if that holds, look up to ATH’s and possibly even to 5820. I’ll be looking to 5835?5845 bear call spreads, and 5840/5850 bear call spreads to the upside.
If we break the 35EMA then look to the 30min 200MA and if we get to that then I’ll be looking at 5715/5710 bull put spreads on the day, and 5720/5710 bull put spreads as well as a back up.
Here we are also holding above the rate cut gap after FOMC. It’s my opinion that we need to go in there and test it for real support but so far we’re bullish - watch Stupid Willy here for either a return to the green or a breakdown here to the 30min 200 on the day.
— Storm update: I’m so good, but I don’t have power so I can’t make videos until that’s fixed. Until then I’ll be posting charts here when I can. 🙌🏼
600? Not so fast!Hi Traders!
Well here we are.. ATH... tomorrow is the 2007 ATH top anniversary 10-11-07. My idea is we get a pullback here to the .5 fib or double bottom around mid month. People will think we are crashing due to it pulling back on the same date.... Except I see us bouncing on a double bottom and off to the races.. Back to ATH around the election then we will keep going to 600 and beyond. I see a nice rally thru at least EOY...
Let's see what happens :)
S&P500 Looks bullishSPX indicators and traditional correlations showing correction but price being stubborn to go down.
The previous RSI pattern of higher lows was bullish (inverse) divergent to price action, while the current set of RSI higher lows is not divergent.
I think the next target is 6000 and higher.
Inflation Report Set to Drive Market; Key Levels for both sideTechnical Analysis:
Today’s inflation report is anticipated to drive significant market movements, particularly following unanimous agreement among Fed members to cut rates by 50 basis points.
A CPI release exceeding 2.3% is expected to support a bearish trend towards 5,732. Conversely, a CPI below 2.3% would likely drive a bullish trend, targeting 5,863.
Additionally, stability above 5,784 would reinforce a bullish outlook, while a close below this level on the 4-hour candle could prompt a decline toward 5,732.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5784
Resistance Levels: 5820, 5863, 5891
Support Levels: 5759, 5732, 5708
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 5784
Bullish above 5784
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bullish Trend Continue
US500 broke and closed above a resistance line of a horizontal
range yesterday on a daily and updated the All-Time High.
It confirms the dominance of the buyers and indicates
a highly probable continuation of the uptrend.
Next resistance - 5850
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SPX500 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend higher?SPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,786.80 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,769.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 5,825.77 which is a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level.
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[SPX] Breakout mini rectangleSP:SPX is on the move. After completion of cup & handle pattern, the price has since retest & bounce back up.
Now the price is managed to close above the mini rectangle. The first price target would be 5,900 before heading to C&H target at 6,200.
Cherio...
SPX Short: Seeking PeakThe new high has forced me to recount the last wave and forced me to bring back the original count where I had expected another wave in the early days of October. This has definitely dragged on for too long.
Now, let me first say this: there is an alternate count that I am holding that has a scary price target just slightly more than 6000 for SPX. So if I am wrong, CUT THE SHORT POSITION.
With that, let me continue.
As you can see over in this chart, I will bring your attention to the following:
1. A huge wedge for primary wave 5 itself in Yellow.
2. An internal wave for wave 5 of 5 in Green.
3. A Fibonacci extension that is projected from wave 1 of intermediate wave 5 to the entire intermediate wave 5 (blue wave).
4. An ending diagonal for wave 5 of intermediate wave 5, drawn in green minor wave.
5. The breakdown of the ending diagonal using corrective a-b-c waves in purple (there is no 1-2-3 waves in TradingView for usage).
6. RSI is extended overbought region.
From the above, my primary count is that we should see SPX peaking this week. There are 2 potential peak points:
1. Fibonacci extension level of 5802.
2. The upper trendline of the wedges which will be around 5820.
The above 2 price points are potential entry points. An alternate way for short entry will be to wait for a reversal candle.
You also see in this chart a purple breakdown line. This line can be used if you are a strong hand waiting for the final confirmation of the break and can withstand volatility.
Good luck!
SPX500: Long-Term Growth Ahead!Hello,
The SPX500 is likely to see further growth. While short-term fluctuations are anticipated, the long-term outlook remains bullish, with new highs expected in the future!
TradeWithTheTrend3344
