Ascending out of the Great Depression Simple ascending channel following the S&P 500 out of the Great Depression through the present day.
Tariffs aside, we hit resistance.
SPXM trade ideas
Market going to CRASH ???Yes, that is what the media wants you to believe. For God's sake, if they can predict the market moves , why are they where they are ? Haha......Negative news always attract people to read the news, ie. viewerships rate going up which translate to better revenue for the company. It's all about the money, who cares if the market goes up or down. So, with that as backdrop , look at the past "crashes", the 3 circled zone has a 20% or more drop, but guess what happens thereafter. It went up like a rocket.
Unless you are a trader, good at market timing, then that is another story. But, if you are a long term investor, you should be happy coz Mr Market is offering you a discount to buy its index or shares of companies.
Do you think Donald Trump is dumb? Of course not ! He knows his words weight a lot in the market and so uses it to his advantage. The tariffs while put on hold for a month will eventually reach some sort of agreement between the parties. Bleeding the companies with high tariffs will only drives the costs of US goods higher and inflation is what US cannot afford..........
So, if you are going to do dollar cost averaging, make sure you go in to buy in tranches. First 25% when in drops 10% which is now, another 25% when it drops 15-20% and last 50% when it drops more than 20%, etc. The % drop is a rough gauge, it can be 17 or 23%........
Take my words with a pinch of salt. this is no financial advice. Don't believe the doomsday porn else they will be multi millionaires sipping pina colada at the beach of some deserted island......and not behind desk churning dark, scary titles to get your eyeballs.......
SP 500 is heading downThe S&P 500 appears to be losing its upward momentum, with a confirmed double top and key moving averages breaking down. A bearish reversal may be underway.
Market Stagnant here I forgot to add this sooner. Made the chart Jan 2nd, but anyway, I don’t see the market losing too much more over the next few years. Unfortunately, I never saw it rising much more either… target is clear, that’s just my best guess
Correction to 5145A minimum target that is set technically and not fundamentally
And the next target is the maximum target of 4815, a certain price reversal
The possibility of a price reversal from this current range is possible with news
SPX: S&P 500 Closes Below the 200-Day Moving AverageThe S&P 500 (SPX) has officially closed below its 200-day moving average, a significant technical event that traders and institutions closely monitor. This marks the first time since late 2023 that the index has broken this key support level, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
🔸 Why This Matters
For those who don't know, the 200-day SMA is widely viewed as a long-term trend indicator. A decisive close below it often triggers increased selling pressure as institutions adjust risk exposure and algorithms shift to a more defensive stance.
🔸 Bearish Momentum Building
Recent price action has been decisively bearish, with heavy selling over the last few sessions. If bulls fail to regain control, the market could be setting up for further downside, with key support levels now in focus.
🔸 Key Levels to Watch
• 200-day SMA: Now a potential resistance level
• Support zones: Recent lows and major Fibonacci retracement levels
• Volatility indicators: VIX spike and sector rotation into defensive plays (both are currently in progress)
Traders will be watching closely—will buyers step in and defend key levels, or are we looking at the start of a larger correction?
⚡ What’s your take? Is this just a temporary shakeout, or are we heading lower? Drop your thoughts below!
China Money FlowIn the context of technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels serve as pivotal tools for identifying potential support and resistance zones within a given price trajectory. By applying the Fibonacci sequence to key swing highs and lows, traders can derive a series of horizontal levels that may act as psychological barriers or areas of confluence for price action. These levels, often expressed as ratios such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%, are believed to reflect natural harmonic patterns inherent in market behavior.
When analyzing a chart, the initial step involves identifying a significant price movement, either upward or downward, which serves as the basis for plotting the Fibonacci grid. The retracement levels are then superimposed onto the chart, providing a framework for assessing potential pullback areas where price may consolidate or reverse. Concurrently, Fibonacci extension levels can be employed to project potential price targets beyond the initial swing, offering insights into where the trend might resume or exhaust.
The interplay between Fibonacci levels and other technical indicators, such as moving averages, volume profiles, or oscillators, can further enhance the robustness of the analysis. For instance, a confluence between a Fibonacci retracement level and a key moving average may strengthen the case for a potential reversal or continuation. Similarly, divergence signals from momentum indicators near Fibonacci levels can provide additional confirmation or cautionary signals.
It is important to note that Fibonacci levels are not infallible and should be interpreted within the broader context of market conditions, including trend direction, volatility, and macroeconomic factors. Traders often employ a discretionary approach, combining Fibonacci analysis with price action patterns, candlestick formations, and other qualitative factors to refine their decision-making process. Furthermore, the subjective nature of selecting swing points for Fibonacci calculations underscores the need for consistency and adaptability in application.
In summary, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels offer a structured yet flexible framework for chart trading, enabling traders to identify potential areas of interest and manage risk-reward dynamics. While their efficacy is contingent upon proper application and contextual interpretation, their widespread adoption across various asset classes and timeframes attests to their enduring relevance in technical analysis.
Let's check what happens here
SPX ready for the correctionhi traders,
This is probably not what most traders want to see but we must be realistic.
The monthly close is upon us and it's not gonna be a bullish close.
A lot of selling pressure and it may be just the beginning.
A 13 % correction on SPX is more than likely in my opinion.
If the price loses the upsloping support, we will see the mark-down pretty soon.
Stoch RSI suggests that the bears are taking control.
My target for SPX is between 5200 and 5000.
Get ready to buy cheap stocks and cheap crypto!
My Bullishness May Prove to be Terribly Wrong I've been a persistent bear into all the rallies under 5700 but 5700 I did think was a good level for a bounce.
I still expected lower off this but from as early as November I'd forecast a bounce here if we topped somewhere around 6100.
This was betting on a 1.27 hold or at least a dead cat.
That idea might have failed today.
Markets closed today at support. I don't like bear posting at lows in general and hate doing it on support ... but if this support breaks, the drop can double.
We could see a capitulation of 500 points in SPX.
It could be something we see soon.
SPX history of 10% correction in a glanceConnecting previous tops with corrections of 10%. Just eye balling the last 20 years, probably 80% of corrections have been under 10%. In that case 5500 would be that target of 10% correction. The 2018 tariff reaction made spx to drop out of the channel of 10%. even if that happens a corrective rally from 5500 is a strong probability before it falls below 5500
Batten down the hatches!!!Expansion has occured for the last 25yrs. Although Terry made it, its time to prepare for whats next. Fortunes will be made and lost but it is no longer our time. We must rebuild and prepare for what comes next. The future is about our youth and this reset must occur for HOPE and CHANGE!!!
Wave 5 Vibes in SPX. Very close to puking my bullish positions and reverting back to being a bear (although I hate to short at these levels, I'd probably wait for a break and rally) but this is possibly a wave 5 spike out.
If it is, then we'll see a big rally to over 6000.
Big attempts at this on now, largely weighted with deep OTM calls so they're cheap to lose.
Wave 5 would be about over now if this is correct.
Otherwise, I think we'll end up trading 5000. Would just be a matter of what path. I'd not short immediately, but I would bail on longs quickly.
Start of bearish cycle for equities $SPXSP:SPX confirming trend reversal on high time frame as it attempts to breach the 50 weekly MA for the first time since the start of the 2022 bear market. Macroeconomic environment is full of uncertainty and recession signals, with POTUS Trump openly confirming that some short term pain in assets is needed for the US economy to reset and go on a better path forward.
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Update – Is Wave IV Nearing Completion?📊 S&P 500 – Is Wave IV Nearing Completion?
According to Elliott Wave Theory, the S&P 500 is currently in an impulsive structure, and it seems to be completing Wave (IV) in a larger degree. Typically, Wave IV retraces near the Wave IV of Wave III, which aligns with the corrective zone in this analysis.
🔹 Two Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Conservative Approach: If price remains within the 23.6%–50% Fibonacci retracement zone, we can expect Wave IV to complete soon, leading to the start of Wave V in the impulsive structure.
2️⃣ Aggressive Scenario: If the price breaks above 6147.43, this wave count might no longer be valid, and an alternative structure (such as an ending diagonal) could be forming instead.
📌 Key Level to Watch:
The invalidation level for this scenario is 5122.40. As long as price stays above this zone, there is a strong possibility of an extended Wave V, with Wave 1 already completed and Wave 2 correcting within the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement range before a potential bullish continuation.
⚠️ Alternative Possibility – Complex Correction?
While this count follows Elliott Wave principles, we should also consider the possibility of a complex correction (WXY or a triangle formation) before confirming a bullish move.
📊 Final Thought:
With the equality of Waves I & III respected, the impulsive structure remains valid unless price enters Wave I territory. Otherwise, we might be looking at a different formation.
💡 What’s your view? Do you agree with this analysis, or do you see an alternative setup? Drop your thoughts below! 👇📈
String rejection from support. pull back S&p500 LongStrong rejection from support. A good pullback expected in FRED:SP500
SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down?
Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition:
📈 Current Setup:
📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. previous touch of this ascending channel) Check out our previously published long term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication).
🔹 Right now, we can see price is testing the channels lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluence of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here.
📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake out, or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimise risk.
📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones):
🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication)
🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears
🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling
📍 Key Support Levels:
❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support
🔻 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence
📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6650 All Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment.
🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long Term Reversal):
🟢 Entry : Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close).
🎯 Take Profit 1 : 6,150 (Previous high).
🎯 Take Profit 2 : 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension).
🎯 Take Profit 3 : 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publiation).
🔴 Stop Loss : Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation).
✅ Justification:
🔹The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however we believe based on our technical analysis both here, and our long term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control.
🔹 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary expectation once 6650 is reached):
❌ Invalidation Level : Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier).
🔻 Downside Short-Term Targets:
5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support.
5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity.
5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low.
🔻 Downside Long-Term Targets:
5,500 – 0.382 Fib
4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high
4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible.
✅ Justification:
❗ Please read -
❗ Higher Time Frame Long Term Analysis -
❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside.
⚡ Key Takeaways:
🔹 SPX500 is at a crossroads : Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13 .
🔹 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03 .
🔹 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13 ; otherwise, bears dominate.
📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025):
Economic Releases:
📅 Mar 10 : U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness.
📅 Mar 12 : Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown.
📅 Mar 14 : FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections.
🌐 Geopolitical Developments:
📅 Mar 11 : Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity.
📅 Mar 13 : Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets.
📅 Ongoing : Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility.
📊 Market Sentiment:
📉 Equity Flows : Hedge funds remain underweight equities (BofA survey), suggesting short-term liquidity-driven rally.
📉 Options Market : SPX500 gamma gap at 6,800 killed by recent churn, hedging flows may cap tops.
🎯 Portfolio Management Strategy:
💰 Buy Entry : At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence).
🎯 Take Profit : 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6).
❌ Stop Loss : Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib).
As price approaches 6,600, consider allocating capital to long-dated puts on the SPX500 to hedge against volatility spikes. A confirmed break below 5,755.70 would signal a shift toward bearish regimes, aligning with geopolitical tensions and potential Fed tightening.
SHORT ETH to 500 USDMy new strategy is to short eth now, and close my position at 500 USD ethereum, the most hated coin ever is about to enter into crash mode, breaking all bearish structures, you are not bearish enough...
S&P500: Broke its 1W MA50 after 17 months. Recovery or collapse?The S&P500 turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.430, MACD = -85.410, ADX = 51.223) as it breached today its 1W MA50 for the first time since the week of October 30th 2023, i.e. almost 1.5 year. That was a week of a very aggressive recovery after a Channel Up correction, with the bullish sequence reaching 9 straight green weeks. With the 1D RSI ovesold and the 1W RSI almost on the 39.15 Support, which was the low of the October 23rd 2023 1W candle, the index couldn't have been technically on a better long term buy spot.
Needless to say, the market can't rise if the fundamentals are against it and right now the geopolitical tensions and more importantly the trade war isn't helping. If the index does find a positive catalyst to take advantage of, then the bullish technicals of the Channel Up bottom will prevail, and this week's candle may resemble the Max Pain 1W candle under the 1W MA50 of October 23rd 2023. Even if it doesn't rise as high as the 2.382 Fibonacci extension of that rally, we would expect in that instance a 2.0 Fib extension rally like the post August 2024 bullish wave (TP = 6,700). Failure to find support this week though, will most likely result in further collapse (even more aggressively so) to the 1W MA100.
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Wait for 7% market haltThere will come a day that a 7% circuit breaker to come in the near future. If you have cash on the side, wait for opportunities to come around that time
Previous SPY target of 565 HIT. Reversal to SPX 5830 possible SPY hit the downside target of 565. Now it's resting on weekly 50 sma. Also previous resistance of 565.
Potential reversal to 5830 possible on SPX.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 10 March 2025
- S&P 500 index broke support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 5600.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the support zone between the support levels 5775.00 (monthly low from January) and 5690.00 (strong support from October and November).
These support levels coincided with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the earlier upward impulse from September.
S&P 500 index can be expected to fall to the next support level 5600.00 (target price for the completion of the active short-term impulse wave (i)).
S&P 500 Breakdown at Key Support LevelThe S&P 500 is showing clear signs of technical weakness as it breaks below a key support level around 5,675, coinciding with the 200-day EMA. This breakdown follows a rejection at 6,130, a recent high that established a resistance zone.
With the index now trading below the 50-day EMA, downside risks are increasing. If the 5,668 level fails to hold, further declines toward the next major support zone could materialize. Traders will be watching for a potential retest of broken support as resistance before determining the next move.
Key Levels to Watch:
📉 Support: 5,668
📈 Resistance: 6,130
-MW
