Temporary euphoria fades, a sharp correction is likelyThe current index surge appears increasingly disconnected from core fundamentals. Markets have been brushing aside key economic data, rallying instead on short-term sentiment and speculative flows.
⚠️ Once this temporary momentum fades, I expect a pullback to 4800, with a possible extension toward 3900 if macro headwinds intensify. This setup reflects a growing divergence between price action and economic reality—something that rarely lasts.
SPXM trade ideas
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index showed a steady upward trend during this week's trading session, successfully reaching a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5955. However, it's important to note the significant downward trend due to letter completion, which could lead to a decline toward the Mean Support level of 5828. Additionally, there is a possibility of further drops to the Mean Support level of 5661. On the other hand, the index may continue to rise from its current level, potentially advancing toward the Inner Currency Rally target set at 6073.
SPX500 watch 5900 then 6103: Double Golden zone Was/Will be TOP?SPX500 with a ferocious recovery after tariff relief.
About to test a most important zone of its lifetime.
Double Golden zone of a Genesis plus a Covid pair.
Such a tight confluence of two major Goldens is rare.
It warned us of a top BEFORE Trump even won (click).
The retest could form a "Wave B" or "Bull Trap" lower high.
It is PROBABLE that we "Orbit" these high gravity objects for a while.
It is PLAUSIBLE that we "Blast" by them but have to retest soon after.
It is POSSIBLE that "wave B" ends here and we drop deep for "wave C".
I am personally a bull, but we should be PREPARED for a BULL TRAP.
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Previous Plots below
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5901 TOP warning:
5668 Tariff warning:
5100 Tariff Relief Entry:
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S&P 500 1W forecast until mid June 2025It's in reversal now. Uptrend has finished and downtrend is starting. A fall downto 5105 is on the table. It may last until the middle of June 2025.
This view is also supported by my VIX forecast.
Weekly updates of 1D chart are available through social media links in my profile.
SP500 Waiting the right time to sellSP500 has reached a possible reversal area on a daily timeframe. On lower timeframe, we can expect a sideline moves for the next hours with a possible short entry around 12 (NY Time). The target is half of the current open market gap.
This is a mid term trade based on graphic and statistical analysis. I usually operate on smaller timeframe with scalp trades, that can't be posted here.
SP500 Time to be bearish againWatch out bulls, don't play hero. Bears are around the corner.
Probably gap up again tomorrow and push to 5937 and that's it because bears time is coming into play to take price down to 5760 and by the end of next week it should be around 5675 (if not sooner). Buckle up ladies and gentlemen we are going into a wild...wild ride.
Spx500usd up? 1min chart at 23h London time?As it is , all I hope is that spx 500usd starts here at that blue line, after all, if it starts at the blue line the stock as might be up again, I'm not into the fundamentals by this time, I'm just making some Elliot and indicators-some mine, others don't, and trend analysis
Hope u guys all in profit
After all we all looking for the same
Keep Ur trades safe
And Do Always Your Own Research
DAYOR
Keep it safe
This my my graph at 1min candles, returned to 15min chart
Keep it safe.
And keep cool.
SPY pull back startAs we can see, it appears that today marked the beginning of a pullback, with the price breaking below the trendline and dropping by 1.20%.
Interestingly, the price has now reached the 10 EMA, which often acts as dynamic support. From here, we need to remain patient — either waiting for a bullish reaction at this level or allowing the price to continue pulling back to a deeper point of interest (POI).
Based on how the market reacts at each POI, we can then begin to take action on the trades from our watchlist.
S&P500 Uptrend pause supported at 5925India Trade Deal: Trump claims India offered a zero-tariff trade deal with the U.S., but no official confirmation yet. He also said he told Apple CEO Tim Cook to stop building plants in India, despite Apple shifting production there to reduce reliance on China.
Iran Nuclear Talks: Iran may be open to giving up nuclear weapons in exchange for immediate sanctions relief, per NBC. Oil prices fell on speculation this could boost supply.
Russia-Ukraine Talks: Peace progress looks unlikely as Putin sent only low-level officials to talks in Turkey. Trump said he might attend “if appropriate,” but downplayed chances.
Overall: Trump is emphasizing trade and foreign policy strength, while global tensions continue to shape markets and diplomacy.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5925
Resistance Level 2: 5970
Resistance Level 3: 6000
Support Level 1: 5790
Support Level 2: 5730
Support Level 3: 5685
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The S&P 500 Is About to Drop — The Real Rally Comes in July!S&P 500 Market Outlook: Navigating the Path to a Bullish Breakout by June 2025
At Vital Direction, we are committed to delivering precise and forward-looking market analysis rooted in deep technical expertise. Our current evaluation of the S&P 500 indicates that the recent upward movement is not the beginning of a true bull market. Rather, it reflects a counter-trend rally that is approaching exhaustion. We firmly believe that the market is preparing for a significant decline in the short term, followed by a prolonged sideways consolidation, before initiating a genuine, powerful bull market in late June 2025.
Elliott Wave Analysis: A Classic Counter-Trend Structure
Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the S&P 500’s recent rally has been corrective in nature, comprised of only three waves — a classic hallmark of a counter-trend move. This pattern lacks the five-wave impulsive structure typically associated with sustainable bull markets. From our vantage point, this confirms that we remain in a larger corrective phase.
We anticipate that a sharp retracement is imminent, one that may unfold over the coming days and weeks, ultimately transitioning into a period of sideways price action until mid-to-late June 2025. Only thereafter do we foresee the conditions forming for a new all-time high and the emergence of a powerful bull leg.
Gann Theory Timing: Imminent Market Top
Our Gann timing model aligns precisely with this forecast. We have identified this week as a critical timing window for a potential top in the S&P 500. Once this pivot is confirmed, we expect the index to enter a steep downward phase. From a Gann perspective, this is a natural part of the market’s cyclical structure — a necessary clearing phase before the next long-term advance.
US Bond Yields: A Telling Risk-Off Signal
One of the most overlooked — yet crucial — factors supporting our bearish near-term view is the behaviour of US bond yields. Charts clearly show that bond yields are breaking out to new highs, a significant development that suggests institutional and “smart money” investors are positioning defensively. This is not a characteristic of a “risk-on” environment.
When yields rise, particularly amidst equity euphoria, it typically indicates that investors are seeking safety and yield rather than embracing equity risk. This divergence is a red flag that supports our conviction: the equity rally is unsustainable, and a meaningful correction is near.
Seasonality Supports the Retracement View
Historical seasonality trends for the S&P 500 further validate our analysis. Data indicates the following typical market behaviour:
Mid-May to Late May: Downtrend
Late May to Mid-June: Temporary uptrend
Mid-June to Late June: Another corrective phase
From Late June Onward: Start of the next major bullish cycle
This seasonal rhythm perfectly mirrors what we see technically: the market is preparing to reset before beginning a strong ascent in July 2025, building into a full-fledged bull market by late June.
The Broader Picture: Beyond US-China
While some market optimism has emerged on the back of renewed US-China tariff discussions, we caution against over-reliance on this narrative. The market appears to be ignoring the broader geopolitical context, including the absence of any clear tariff agreements between the US and Japan — another major global economic player.
The complexity of global trade negotiations introduces substantial uncertainty, which may continue to weigh on investor confidence. Until such macroeconomic factors are stabilised and digested by the market, we do not anticipate a truly risk-on environment.
The Road Ahead: A Strategic Pause Before Ascent
In conclusion, Vital Direction maintains its firm stance: the current market structure does not yet support the onset of a sustained bull market. A meaningful retracement is necessary and, indeed, healthy for the long-term health of the market. We expect this corrective period to unfold over the coming weeks and months, culminating in a sideways consolidation until late June 2025 — the point at which we foresee the S&P 500 transitioning into a highly bullish environment, with the potential to reach new all-time highs.
We will continue to monitor the technicals, macroeconomic developments, and global capital flows to provide our clients with the most accurate and actionable insights. The bull is coming — just not yet.
SPX The market selloff today was driven by a sharp rise in Treasury yields following weak demand at a 20-year bond auction, signaling investor concerns about U.S. debt and fiscal policy. Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, fears over unsustainable government spending.
If we don't hold around 5866, there's a risk of deeper selling pressure pushing us toward 5774
sp 500 trend down S&P 500 remains in a broader downtrend, driven by persistent economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures. Despite a recent correction, with the SPY rising approximately 2.5% from $551.23 on April 25 to $565.00 on May 9, this uptick may be temporary, as market sentiment and macroeconomic indicators suggest ongoing volatility and potential further declines
S&P 500 Index May Lose Upward MomentumS&P 500 Index May Lose Upward Momentum
Yesterday’s inflation data release held no major surprises, as the actual Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in close to analysts’ forecasts.
According to Forex Factory:
→ Annual CPI: actual = 2.3%, forecast = 2.4%, previous = 2.4%;
→ Monthly Core CPI: actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.3%, previous = 0.1%.
Overall, stock indices rose yesterday, but according to media reports, this momentum may begin to slow in the near future:
→ UBS analysts downgraded their rating on US equities from “attractive” to “neutral” following the recovery from early April lows;
→ Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the US stock market rally could stall at current levels. In their view, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is likely to reach 5900 over the next three months.
Technical Analysis of the E-Mini S&P 500 Chart
The chart provides more reasons to suggest that the current pace of growth may begin to slow.
Firstly, the index has entered a broad range between 5800 and 6120, where it spent a prolonged period during late 2024 and early 2025. This is a zone (highlighted in purple) where supply and demand previously reached a stable equilibrium — and similar balance could potentially emerge again.
Secondly:
→ the slope of the current upward channel (marked in black) appears excessively steep;
→ the RSI indicator points to a divergence;
→ the psychological level of 6000 may act as resistance.
Given the above, special attention should be paid to the scenario in which the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) forms a short-term correction before the end of the month.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P500 Alert! Entering a medium-term SELL ZONE!The S&P500 index (SPX) has recovered the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, limiting the Trade War losses considerably. Trading this week above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the index has confirmed that it resumed its long-term bullish trend.
On he medium-term though attention is needed as we're headed towards a range, which in the past 10 years has historically been an interim Sell Zone. That's the 0.786 - 0.9 Fibonacci range, which since the 2016 correction, it has always rejected the uptrend of a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) led recovery.
On 3 out of 3 occasions so far (April 2016, June 2020, July 2023), every time the price tested the 0.9 Fib, it got rejected back to its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). In 2023 the pull-back bottomed in 3 months but in 2020 and 2016 it took considerably less.
As a result, we call for caution near the 0.9 Fib for a potential medium-term pull-back but on the long-term the bullish trend is intact and historically it targets a minimum +27.74% from the All Time High (ATH), which is translated into a 7800 Target.
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SPX: US-China tariffs talkOne of the most important weekly events was the FOMC meeting, where its members held the interest rates unchanged for one more time. Many analysts are in agreement that the Fed made the right decision, without jumping-into-conclusion regarding the potential negative effects of trade tariffs. However, this topic was addressed by the Fed Chair Powell, at his after-the-meeting address to the public, where he noted a confidence that the Fed will react immediately in case that stronger negative effects of trade tariffs reflect in the economy. Here, he noted once again the dual mandate of the Fed - to keep full unemployment and inflation at the targeted 2%. The market reacted positively to his speech, bringing the US equity markets to the higher levels. The S&P 500 gained during the week, from 5.586 to 5.713. However, Friday's trading session was with a negative sentiment, considering forthcoming US-China tariffs talk, expected to start soon.
At the same time, the US managed to settle trade tariffs at the level of 10% with the United Kingdom. Analysts are commenting that this might be a general level for the majority of other countries. However, the US President published on social networks that he hopes to settle tariffs with China at 80%, which is still too high. Considering forthcoming talks between two governments and also taking into account that China is one of the most important trading partners with the US, the market sensitivity will continue to be in an on-off mode. This means that the market volatility will most certainly continue in the coming period.
The final rally or the beginning of hyper-inflation? This is an ascending wedge, (65% chance of a break to the downside statistically,) that the S&P500 has been trading in for it's entire life cycle. All historical data points to a final topping process as market makers head back for the top trend to liquidate short positions that took positions on the last plunge.
The former sell-off showed no signs of big money taking full exit from the market as it was quite gradual; allowing short positions to stack at back tests of key resistance areas. Therefore, it stands to reason that the oversold daily RSI was going to allow for a powerful bounce to catch shorts off guard. The market will not sell off largely until shorts have capitulated as exchanges and banks load up for a final rally to completely remove those positions and sell new highs. when this happens, there will be no gradual dump but, instead, a red waterfall with news about hyperbolic, impending disasters coming out after the largest institutions push the sell button.
Breaking that top trend on the 3 month logarithmic chart would be a first in market history and denote hyper-inflation followed by the coming crash being even more violent then anyone believes is possible. It is a good time to start scaling out of the market little by little.