SPXM trade ideas
How High is High Enough - welcome to the Void & VanityUS500 | ATH Extension and Rebalancing Outlook
What is going on beyond the surface? – Here is how I will anticipate next move.
Today , price carved a new All-Time High (ATH) , extending beyond Monday’s peak and breaching the previously defined Sell Limit Bound at 6173 .
6173 level capped prior upside and served as the structural ceiling on the weekly timeframe – would demand balance.
While price has cleared 6173 , failure to retain acceptance above it raises the possibility of a rebalancing phase —necessary before any sustainable bullish expansion. This retracement, if triggered, would offer clarity on whether this breakout is a continuation or merely a premature exploration into thin liquidity.
📌 Key Observations:
• 6173 – Breached, but yet to prove retention. A weekly close and reaccumulation above here is required to maintain bullish momentum.
• 6577–6408 – Marked as a hidden liquidity pool and potential upside target zone. Price may hunt for this range, but only if it holds structurally above 6173.
• Below 6173 – Failure to anchor here may trigger a rebalance into prior value areas before any serious upside projection takes form.
Price must find equilibrium before the next leg. Any upside without that balance risks collapsing under its own weight.
#SPX500 Buy 6205.8#SPX500 Buy 6205.8
SL 6145.8
TP 6225.8
TP 6305.8
TP 6445.8
Trade at your own risk
Protect your capital
The Wizard 🧙♂️ SWFX
Bulls and Bears Zone for 07-02-2025S&P keeps going higher after new ATH high earlier this week. Markets could go higher for a while if we see any pullback.
Level to watch: 6232 ---6234
Possible "DIP" into Monday July 7 Tarrif DeadlineHello everyone,
Well we made it. ATH! Well all things must eventually dip. I see a good possibility into next Monday July 7 Tarif deadline plus we are hitting the ATH's prior tops trendline (Red Line)....
I highlight with colored boxes 3 different price targets I think it could dip to before resuming its march higher.
Let's see what happens!
S&P 500 - Confirmed New All Time HighPlease refer to our last post:
The S&P could now be gearing up for the run towards our 1.618 extension around $7k.
We just had a confirmed daily candle breakout above our white box which we have been eyeing for so long. This is the first signal of a major ATH breakout rally for the S&P.
However there is only one thing that could potentially hinder this rally. That would be the orange trendline I have drawn. If price gets rejected somewhere along this orange trendline and price falls back below the white box that would signal a few warning signs. The first would be a failed breakout and the second would be a massive bearish divergence forming on the HTF. With higher highs in price but strength continuing to get weaker keep an eye out for that.
So far things just look great, but just wanted to point that out as a potential scenario.
US500/SPX500 Heist Plan: Grab the Index CFD Loot!Greetings, Profit Pirates! 🌟
Money chasers and market rogues, 🤑💸 let’s execute a daring heist on the US500/SPX500 Index CFD market using our 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, powered by sharp technicals and deep fundamentals. Stick to the charted long-entry strategy, aiming to cash out near the high-risk Pink zone. Stay alert for overbought conditions, consolidation, or a trend reversal trap where bearish bandits dominate. 🏴☠️💪 Lock in your profits and treat yourself—you’ve earned it! 🎉
Entry 📈
The vault’s cracked open! 🏦 Snatch the bullish loot at the current price—the heist is on! For precision, place Buy Limit orders on a 15 or 30-minute timeframe for pullback entries, targeting a retest of the nearest high or low.
Stop Loss 🛑
📍 Set your Thief SL at the recent swing low (5640) on a 4H timeframe for day trades.📍 Adjust SL based on your risk appetite, lot size, and number of orders.
Target 🎯
Aim for 6160 or slip out early to secure your gains! 💰
Scalpers, Eyes Sharp! 👀
Focus on long-side scalps. Big capital? Dive in now! Smaller funds? Team up with swing traders for the robbery. Use a trailing SL to protect your loot. 🧲💵
US500/SPX500 Market Intel 📊
The Index CFD is riding a bullish surge, 🐂 fueled by key drivers. Dive into fundamentals, macroeconomics, COT reports, geopolitical news, sentiment, intermarket analysis, index-specific insights, positioning, and future trend targets for the full picture. 🔗check
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News can jolt the market! To safeguard your haul:
Avoid new trades during news releases.
Use trailing stops to lock in profits and limit losses. 🚫
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US500 Will Go Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for US500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 6,165.52.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 6,451.04 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
V2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QEV2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QE
US S&P Zone Analysis -- Correlation with
1. Leading Economic Indicators (PMI Manufacturing Index, PMI Services Index, Building Permits)
2. US Interest Rates (MEAN 1.97 from Jan 2003)
3. US Inflation Rate YoY
4. Dollar Index (DXY)
5. Quantitative Easing Episodes
WHY CHANGE IN APPROACH?
As per Ammar Bhai, Red and other Zones for US and developed markets shall not follow only Interest Rates after 2000. Traditional single impact of Interest Rate is not Enough.
NOTE ABOUT INFLATION ABOVE 5%
It was also noticed that if inflation was about 5% that coincided with Red and Yellow zone and it must be avoided for stock trading.
NEW APPROACH
NEW GREEN ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50
2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect)
3. Inflation is FALLING or AROUND TARGET
4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS
5. Stock Market RISING
NEW APPROACH for RED ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is FALLING or BELOW 50
2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED or ABOVE MEAN (Contractionary Policy in Effect)
3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS. (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%)
4. DXY is RISING
5. Stock Market FALLING or SIDEWAYS
NEW YELLOW ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50
2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED
3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%)
4. DXY is RISING or SIDEWAYS
5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS
NEW ORANGE ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is SIDEWAYS or BELOW 50
2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect)
3. Inflation is FALLING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%)
4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS
5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS
Historically whenever Interest Rates are dropping, US market goes down for some months:
US somehow try to control Inflation before bringing the interest rates down.
When Inflation is under control and Growth has not gone down much, then they decrease the interest rates
Because in past whenever Interest rates were decreased, growth also fell for some months and then improved.
Then FED does QE, which bring surplus cash in the market, Which drops Dollar rate, that helps the Stock Market grow.
Generally bullish sentiment heading into next weekWednesday's AUD CHF trade finally stopped out. I've been a little surprised by CHF resilience considering the 'risk on' environment. I have read an interesting article suggesting CHF and EUR strength can be attributed to holding relatively high amounts of gold reserves. I'm not sure how much long term credence I'd give that theory but it does make sense.
Meanwhile, the USD turned out to be the currency to short this week as the market starts to price in more rate cuts than thought a few weeks ago. It could be a tricky road ahead for the FED, as softening data, and now today's higher than forecast PCE data means the dreaded 'stagflation' word will be mentioned. But with the VIX well below 20 and the S&P touching all time highs, in the absence of Middle East re-escalation or fresh tariff concerns, I'll begin next week with a mind to continue looking for 'risk on' trades.
For today, I will let Friday's price action do what it's going to do and start fresh next week.
SPX going to all time highsThe quarterly on the SPX is a powerful bullish signal. Nothing stops this train, we are going to all time highs.
S&P. Has been struggling to keep a full bull/bear run.Setting todays fib circle I think it's going to balance out. especially with the fin levels.
Not just because of july.
SPX500 Macro Fibonacci Projection – Eyeing 7190+ 🗓️ Posted by Wavervanir International LLC | June 26, 2025
The S&P 500 continues to respect key Fibonacci zones on the macro scale. After a strong recovery from the recent correction near the 0.5–0.618 retracement region (4800–5100), price is now hovering near critical confluence at the 1.0 level (~6150).
We’re tracking a bullish extension path toward 1.382 and 1.618 Fibonacci levels, which gives us a primary upside target zone between 7,190 and 7,795 — aligning with the projected long-term wave expansion. This structure favors a continued institutional accumulation phase, supported by macroeconomic resilience and liquidity conditions.
🔶 Key Levels to Watch:
Major Support: 4838.28 (0.5 Fib Retest)
Immediate Resistance: 6170–6200
Target Range: 7190.71 → 7795.41
🧠 Bias remains bullish unless price breaks back below 5830 with volume.
This is not financial advice. Shared for educational and strategic insights.
Let me know your thoughts, traders!
—
#SPX500 #Fibonacci #WaverVanir #MacroTrends #StockMarket2025 #QuantitativeAnalysis
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All these characteristics are called investor profile .
Unless all these characteristics of your profile change, you must stay true to your investor profile. Bullish market environments are a temptation to take on more risk than we should.
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by HollyMontt
rePOST - SPX Weekly Technical Breakdown – Week of June 22, 2025
SPX
Weekly Technical Breakdown – Week of June 22, 2025
After consolidating in a tight range earlier this month,
SPX
printed a subtle but significant outside day on Friday — breaking Thursday’s high by just 0.01 and forming a broadening formation. Like
QQQ
, this pattern reflects indecision and a potential shift in structure as bulls and bears battle for control. The short-term range is wide, with support at 5963.21 and resistance near 6026.68. Holding above 5963 can keep buyers in and opens the door for a retest of the psychological 6000 level, followed by 6059.40 (all-time high). However, a close back below 5963.21 could open the path for a quick flush toward 5900. Key intraday levels to watch include 5929, 5940.03, 5954.06, 5974.86, 5989.43, 6002.32, 6012.94, 6026.68, 6044.56, and 6059.21.
Technical Summary
• Structure: Outside day Friday formed a broadening formation
• Event Note: Slight break of Thursday’s high by 0.01 confirms outside bar structure
• Daytrade Pivots: 5929, 5940.03, 5954.06, 5974.86, 5989.43, 6002.32, 6012.94, 6026.68
• Macro View: SPX improves technically above 6000; breakout confirmed over 6026.68
• Downside Risk: Failure to close above 5963.21 could trigger fast move toward 5900
• Momentum Bias: Neutral to bearish until 6000+ is reclaimed and defended
Key Levels to Watch
🟢 Upside Resistance: 5974.86, 5989.43, 6002.32, 6012.94, 6026.68, 6044.56, 6059.21, 6059.40 (ATH)
🔴 Downside Support: 5963.21 (must hold), 5954.06, 5940.03, 5929
Trade Plan
• Hold above 5963.21 keeps upside scenario intact — look for reclaim of 5974.86 and 6000+
• Close below 5963.21 flips structure and may accelerate toward 5929, possibly 5900
• Scalps remain viable near 5954–6002 using intraday reactions at key levels
Decision Map
🟩 IF SPX HOLDS ABOVE 5963.21 → reclaim 5974.86 → target 5989.43 → 6002.32 → breakout toward 6026.68 → 6059.40 (ATH)
🟥 IF SPX BREAKS BELOW 5963.21 → watch 5954.06 → 5940.03 → 5929 → 5900 possible flush
Primary Trade Zone: 5954–6002
Alert Levels
Set alerts above: 5974.86, 6002.32, 6026.68
Set alerts below: 5963.21, 5940.03, 5929
This Week’s Key Catalysts for
SPX
This week’s economic calendar is packed with market-moving data that will likely influence
SPX
and broader risk appetite.
• Tuesday, June 24: Fed Chair Powell testifies to the House Financial Services Committee. His tone and guidance on future policy will be a primary driver for market direction. The same day also includes Consumer Confidence (June) and Fed commentary from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack — both potentially impactful.
• Thursday, June 26: Heavy data day with initial jobless claims, durable goods orders (May), core goods data, and the second revision of Q1 GDP. These reports will offer insight into both the labor market and the broader health of the U.S. economy.
• Friday, June 27: The most important inflation data of the week arrives with the PCE index and Core PCE (May). These are the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges and could shape expectations for a rate cut later this summer.
Overall, market participants will be closely watching Powell’s tone, inflation data, and any sign of slowing growth. Combined with Friday’s outside day and broadening structure,
SPX
is positioned for a move — the catalyst will determine the direction.
S&P 500 - Pay Attention All the world events going on right now has put the S&P in a very interesting position. Even on the brink of war we have seen the SPX pushing towards all time highs. Right now it is entering the major supply zone (where we have seen many tops form) between $6,090 and $6,150. This supply zone has been forming since Dec 2024 and is very important to keep and eye on. Either price will create a macro double top/M pattern and lead us back towards the lows, or we will break above this supply zone a start the expansion phase towards our 1.618 which is currently just slightly below $7k.
The macro looks amazing as our lower white line represents of 2021 previous ATH and during the tariff collapse perfectly got flipped into a new level of support which we represent as our 2025 Macro Low.
The short term is also looking decent. We have identified price is about to enter major resistance so if we do see a pullback we want to target that $5,800 level as the level buyers need to hold to continue momentum. If buyers can push price to new highs in the short term we expect to see that move towards $7k by the end of the year.
Short SPX500Elite Live Analysis
Weekly Market Structure: Price tapped into a key structure level and showed clear rejection.
Daily Market Structure: Currently bearish, actively pulling price lower.
4H Market Structure: A new structure has just been confirmed, providing fresh short-term context.
Expectations:
Looking for a structure-to-structure move on the Daily timeframe, aligning with the broader bearish bias.
Targets:
Primary targets are areas of structured liquidity and liquidity pools resting below current price levels.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6065.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area between the support level 5930.00 (which reversed the price multiple times from the start of June) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse 1 from last month.
The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the start of June.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6065.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1).
S&P500 calm reaction to geopolitical riskGeopolitics:
The US launched airstrikes on Iran, raising global tensions. Iran has vowed to retaliate, and Israel isn’t backing down. Trump warned of more action if Iran doesn’t make peace. The US issued a global travel alert, airlines are avoiding the Gulf, and Japanese banks may pull staff from the region. Oil is in focus, especially with tankers avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets:
Reactions were calm overall. The US dollar gained, oil prices rose briefly, and stock futures were mixed as investors waited to see what Iran does next.
Corporate News:
BNY Mellon is reportedly in talks to merge with Northern Trust, which could lead to a major deal in the banking sector.
Tesla launched its first robotaxi service in part of Austin, aiming to spark new growth after a sales slump.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6018
Resistance Level 2: 6043
Resistance Level 3: 6070
Support Level 1: 5910
Support Level 2: 5870
Support Level 3: 5845
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 20, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index has primarily exhibited downward trends during this week’s abbreviated trading session, narrowly failing to reach the targeted Mean Support level of 5940, as outlined in the previous Daily Chart Analysis. Currently, the index exhibits a bearish trend, suggesting a potential direction toward the Mean Support level of 5940, with an additional critical support level identified at 5888.
Contrariwise, there exists a substantial likelihood that following the accomplishment of hitting the Mean Support of 5940, the index may experience recovery and ascend toward the Mean Resistance level of 6046. This upward movement could facilitate a resilient rally, ultimately topping in the completion of the Outer Index Rally at 6073, thereby enabling the index to address the Key Resistance level situated at 6150.
Spy chart for 6/25/25This and patience, it can change based on how we open for New York session but we will see
S&P 500 H4 | Rising into a pullback resistanceThe S&P 500 (SPX500) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,982.20 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 6,030.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 5,869.32 which is a swing-low support that aligns closely with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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SPX: Elliott Wave indicating corrective phase nearly doneMy Elliott Wave count suggests the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) is nearing the completion of its current corrective phase. Price action has been consolidating around the 5980 area, last closing at 5980 on Wednesday.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, this setup implies an uptrend continuation is likely coming in the upcoming days.
Key levels I'm watching:
Immediate Support: 5840-5900 zone. A hold here would confirm strength.
Stronger Support: 5767-5840. A break below this would challenge the immediate bullish count.
Resistance: 6000 (psychological) and the all-time high of 6147.43. A clear break above these levels will validate the next impulse wave.
Volume and market breadth will be crucial confirmations. Let's see how the market reacts!
What are your thoughts on the current SPX wave count? Share below!
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may result in the loss of your capital. Always conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
