Biggest What-Ifs in Stocks (or How Investors Live with Regret)You think you’ve got regrets because you didn’t buy Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA at $50 or sold Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA at $420? Join the club.
The stock market’s history is littered with “almost” trades, missed deals, and facepalm-worthy decisions that turned out to be trillion-dollar pivots.
This is the hall of fame for what didn’t happen — and what those stories teach us about how markets (and human nature) actually work. Call it a free masterclass in greed, fear, FOMO, and the priceless value of just sitting tight sometimes.
Take it easy today, grab your cold brew and read up on the biggest what-ifs in stock market history.
🍏 Ronald Wayne: The Patron Saint of “Oops”
Our first inductee needs no introduction. But let’s do it anyway. Ronald Wayne, the third Apple NASDAQ:AAPL co-founder, sold his 10% stake back in 1976 for the princely sum of $800. He wanted to avoid any debts if things went south. Sensible, right?
That $800 stake today would be worth more than $300 billion. That’s more than the GDP of Finland — and about 1.2 million new iPhones every single day for pretty much the rest of his life. Wayne has since said he doesn’t regret it. Which is probably the biggest lie he’s ever told.
🍿 Blockbuster’s Netflix “Pass”
In 2000, Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX was a DVD-by-mail startup with spotty profits. Reed Hastings, Netflix’s founder, knocked on Blockbuster’s door and offered to sell the whole thing for $50 million — about the price of a Hollywood production.
Blockbuster’s execs reportedly laughed him out of the room. “People will always want to drive to a store to rent a VHS,” they said, basically. Fast forward: Netflix is worth around $560 billion, and Blockbuster is down to one store that’s mostly a selfie museum for millennials who miss rewinding tapes.
💻 Microsoft’s Lifeline That Saved Apple
In 1997, Apple NASDAQ:AAPL was broke. Steve Jobs had returned but was days away from the company flat-lining for good. Enter Bill Gates.
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT wrote Apple a $150 million check, partly to keep antitrust regulators off its back. Jobs even appeared on stage with Gates beaming in on a giant screen like Big Brother — a moment that made every Apple fan cringe.
But that deal saved Apple’s hide. The iMac was born. The iPod followed. Then the iPhone. That $150 million is now a rounding error on Apple’s $3 trillion valuation. Sometimes your greatest rival is also your best frenemy.
🔍 Google: The $750K “Meh”
Before “Google it” became a verb, Larry Page and Sergey Brin tried to sell their little search engine to Excite — the Yahoo-lite portal that dominated the ‘90s web. The price? $750,000.
Excite’s CEO said search “wasn’t that important” — one of the worst calls in tech history. Today, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL is worth over $2.1 trillion and always flashing bright on the Stock Heatmap , and Excite is a footnote in a forgotten Web 1.0 graveyard.
The lesson? Never dismiss a side project just because it doesn’t fit the spreadsheet.
💸 Masayoshi Son’s $200 Billion Slip
SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son is known for his giant, risky bets . And in 2017, he made a pretty good one: his Vision Fund scooped up a 5% chunk of Nvidia stock worth about $4 billion. He called GPUs the backbone of the AI revolution. He was right.
But by 2019, SoftBank was under pressure to tidy up its books. So Son sold the whole position for a tidy short-term profit. That stake today would be worth nearly $200 billion, given Nvidia’s rocket-fuel AI rally .
“We can cry together,” CEO Jensen Huang told Masa Son at an AI Summit in Tokyo last year. Early doesn’t always mean patient. And being “kind of right” can be the most painful lesson of all.
📊 Berkshire Hathaway: A Textile Mill’s Rebirth
Think of Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.A now — a $1 trillion behemoth. Insurance, utilities, railroads, huge piles of Apple shares . But back when Warren Buffett bought it, Berkshire was a dying textile business in New England.
Buffett only bought control because he was annoyed at the CEO’s lowball tender offer. It turned into his permanent holding company. The textile side eventually went extinct — but the insurance side became the cash-printing machine Buffett used to buy everything else.
Sometimes your best trade starts with pure pettiness.
🚀 Tesla: The Short Sellers’ Pain Cave
Here’s a more recent tale. Tesla was not long ago the most shorted stock on Earth. Everyone from hedge funds to your uncle at Thanksgiving was betting on Elon’s dream to fail.
Every now and then, the short-sellers get slapped with billions of dollars in losses, because the stock shoots up out of nowhere. The most recent example? November 12, when those naysayers nursed $7 billion in wiped out cash . Bears have been torched so many times, they might as well switch sides and sell Tesla hoodies instead.
🌌 Yahoo’s Double Miss: Google and Facebook
If you think blowing one chance is bad, try blowing two. Yahoo turned down the chance to buy Google for less than a million bucks. Then years later, they offered $1 billion for Facebook (now META NASDAQ:META ) — but bungled the negotiations and tried to lower the price. Zuck said “nope.”
But back to Google, because the story didn’t end there. In 2002, Yahoo said it wanted to buy Google for $3 billion. Brin and Page said $5 billion and Yahoo said no. Then Microsoft was ready to pay $40 billion to acquire Yahoo in 2008. But Yahoo said no.
Today, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are trillion-dollar titans. Yahoo? Sold itself for $4.5 billion, mostly for its patents, in 2016 to Verizon. Talk about slipping on the same banana peel more than once.
🧃 Apple: The Splits that Keep Giving
Want a reason to love boring old “buy and hold”? Apple NASDAQ:AAPL has split its stock five times since its 1980 IPO. If you’d bought 100 shares back then, you’d now have over 56,000 shares, plus mountains of dividends.
Next time you want to swing trade every squiggle, remember: sometimes the slowest route is the sweetest.
📝 Regret: The Only Universal Asset Class
Every trader has a “coulda, shoulda, woulda.” It’s the cost of doing business in a market that only makes sense in hindsight. Even the pros — billionaires, boards, hedge funds — have stories that make yours look tame.
Ronald Wayne reminds you that selling too soon can cost you your own island. Masayoshi Son proves being right but impatient is still being wrong. Yahoo shows that “almost” is worth exactly zero on a balance sheet.
What these stories prove is that the market’s biggest edge isn’t necessarily timing, genius, or inside scoops — it’s discipline, resilience, and sometimes a stubborn refusal to touch the sell button.
🤗 Bonus Story: Ballmer Regrets Nothing
But not every story has to be a regret story. Just look at Steve Ballmer, Microsoft ‘s former CEO. Since the early 2000s, he’s been holding his 4% stake in the software maker and that’s now worth more than $130 billion. No regrets found.
👉 What’s Your “One That Got Away”?
Now your turn : What’s your personal what-if story? Which ticker haunts you in your sleep? Drop your best missed trade or worst sell in the comments — we promise to laugh with you, not at you. Probably. Stay sharp. Stay patient!
SPXM trade ideas
Top fundamentals that will shape the S&P 500 this summer 2025The summer of 2025 is characterized by a combination of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that will shape the trajectory of the US equity market. While the S&P 500 is trading close to its all-time highs and at a valuation comparable to that at the end of 2021, the strength of the upward momentum will depend on the conjunction of several key variables. Understanding these fundamentals is crucial to grasping the potential and risks awaiting investors over the coming months.
1) The trade war and economic diplomacy, the main source of uncertainty
The trade issue remains the most unpredictable at the start of the summer. The July 9 deadline for the conclusion or failure of tariff negotiations is crystallizing tensions between the United States and its main partners. The prospect of a new wave of tariffs could have a direct impact on production costs, inflation and business confidence. Trade diplomacy is thus the variable most likely to provoke volatility jolts and challenge positive earnings growth expectations. If trade agreements are signed, then this will help to sustain the S&P 500's uptrend.
2) US fiscal policy: the “One Big, Beautiful Bill”
The Trump administration's major tax bill is another hotspot. This piece of legislation calls for an extension of the tax cuts initiated in 2017 and a dramatic increase in the public debt ceiling, to the tune of $5,000 billion. While these measures potentially support consumption and private investment, their medium-term impact on public finances is uncertain. The real issue for the equity market is to assess whether these decisions will lead to a surge in long-term US bond yields. A slippage in US Treasury yields would increase corporate financing costs and undermine currently high valuation multiples. Conversely, if yields remain contained, the equity market's upward momentum could continue.
3) Inflation and the Fed's monetary policy: a delicate balance
The trajectory of inflation, in particular that of the PCE index, will be a major determinant. US inflation is currently slightly below the Fed's target. Several components, notably the services sector, which accounts for almost two-thirds of the PCE basket, are proving relatively stable. Inflationary risks are more likely to come from commodities, particularly if trade tensions reignite. Oil, which accounts for around 11% of the PCE basket, is currently showing no major warning signs, benefiting from a geopolitical calm. Real estate and healthcare are also showing reassuring indicators. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious stance: while several major Western central banks are moving towards a neutral rate, the Fed is stalling and conditioning its monetary pivot on visibility regarding tariffs and corporate behavior.
The timing of rate cuts is one of the biggest sticking points. According to recent signals, the first rate cut could take place as early as September. However, influential members of the FOMC, appointed by the Trump administration, are arguing for earlier easing. The political pressure is strong: Trump is calling for immediate cuts, but Chairman Powell remains in control of the agenda, taking care to preserve a consensus within the committee.
4) The job market and the likelihood of a recession
The US employment situation is an advanced barometer of the economic cycle. Weekly jobless claims and the aggregate unemployment rate are closely monitored. Historically, a significant rise in unemployment signals that the economic slowdown is already underway. For the time being, the labor market is proving resilient, but the slightest deterioration could alter investors' central scenario and reinforce recessionary expectations. This risk is one of the potential dampeners to the prevailing optimism, unless it were to accelerate the timetable for resuming the cut in the federal funds rate.
5) Second-quarter results and earnings outlook
The second-quarter earnings season is of particular importance. US companies must demonstrate their ability to deliver earnings growth in line with forecasts, even as valuation multiples remain stretched. Maintaining high price levels on the S&P 500 assumes robust earnings growth and confident guidance from management. Failing this, the risk of a correction would be high, especially as the market has already incorporated many positive factors. The weakness of the US dollar and the price of oil, as well as the current momentum in AI, could hold out some pleasant surprises for second-quarter results.
6) Geopolitics and oil, potential sources of volatility
Finally, global geopolitics is a second-order variable, but one that could suddenly become a priority. A rapid deterioration in the international situation, particularly in the Middle East or the China Sea, could affect trade flows and oil prices, fuelling renewed inflation and financial volatility.
Conclusion :
The summer of 2025 promises to be a period of strategic transition for the US equity market. Between trade diplomacy, fiscal policy, inflation, the trajectory of interest rates and earnings momentum, investors will have to deal with an accumulation of uncertain factors. If these uncertainties gradually dissipate, the uptrend could continue. Conversely, the combination of a geopolitical shock, a rebound in inflation and a political stalemate over the federal budget would have the potential to weaken the current rally.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Possible "DIP" into Monday July 7 Tarrif DeadlineHello everyone,
Well we made it. ATH! Well all things must eventually dip. I see a good possibility into next Monday July 7 Tarif deadline plus we are hitting the ATH's prior tops trendline (Red Line)....
I highlight with colored boxes 3 different price targets I think it could dip to before resuming its march higher.
Let's see what happens!
S&P 500 - Confirmed New All Time HighPlease refer to our last post:
The S&P could now be gearing up for the run towards our 1.618 extension around $7k.
We just had a confirmed daily candle breakout above our white box which we have been eyeing for so long. This is the first signal of a major ATH breakout rally for the S&P.
However there is only one thing that could potentially hinder this rally. That would be the orange trendline I have drawn. If price gets rejected somewhere along this orange trendline and price falls back below the white box that would signal a few warning signs. The first would be a failed breakout and the second would be a massive bearish divergence forming on the HTF. With higher highs in price but strength continuing to get weaker keep an eye out for that.
So far things just look great, but just wanted to point that out as a potential scenario.
US500/SPX500 Heist Plan: Grab the Index CFD Loot!Greetings, Profit Pirates! 🌟
Money chasers and market rogues, 🤑💸 let’s execute a daring heist on the US500/SPX500 Index CFD market using our 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, powered by sharp technicals and deep fundamentals. Stick to the charted long-entry strategy, aiming to cash out near the high-risk Pink zone. Stay alert for overbought conditions, consolidation, or a trend reversal trap where bearish bandits dominate. 🏴☠️💪 Lock in your profits and treat yourself—you’ve earned it! 🎉
Entry 📈
The vault’s cracked open! 🏦 Snatch the bullish loot at the current price—the heist is on! For precision, place Buy Limit orders on a 15 or 30-minute timeframe for pullback entries, targeting a retest of the nearest high or low.
Stop Loss 🛑
📍 Set your Thief SL at the recent swing low (5640) on a 4H timeframe for day trades.📍 Adjust SL based on your risk appetite, lot size, and number of orders.
Target 🎯
Aim for 6160 or slip out early to secure your gains! 💰
Scalpers, Eyes Sharp! 👀
Focus on long-side scalps. Big capital? Dive in now! Smaller funds? Team up with swing traders for the robbery. Use a trailing SL to protect your loot. 🧲💵
US500/SPX500 Market Intel 📊
The Index CFD is riding a bullish surge, 🐂 fueled by key drivers. Dive into fundamentals, macroeconomics, COT reports, geopolitical news, sentiment, intermarket analysis, index-specific insights, positioning, and future trend targets for the full picture. 🔗check
⚠️ Trading Alert: News & Position Safety 📰
News can jolt the market! To safeguard your haul:
Avoid new trades during news releases.
Use trailing stops to lock in profits and limit losses. 🚫
Join the Heist! 💥
Back our robbery plan—hit the Boost Button! 🚀 Let’s stack cash effortlessly with the Thief Trading Style. 💪🤝 Stay ready for the next heist, bandits! 🤑🐱👤🎉
US500 Will Go Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for US500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 6,165.52.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 6,451.04 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
V2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QEV2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QE
US S&P Zone Analysis -- Correlation with
1. Leading Economic Indicators (PMI Manufacturing Index, PMI Services Index, Building Permits)
2. US Interest Rates (MEAN 1.97 from Jan 2003)
3. US Inflation Rate YoY
4. Dollar Index (DXY)
5. Quantitative Easing Episodes
WHY CHANGE IN APPROACH?
As per Ammar Bhai, Red and other Zones for US and developed markets shall not follow only Interest Rates after 2000. Traditional single impact of Interest Rate is not Enough.
NOTE ABOUT INFLATION ABOVE 5%
It was also noticed that if inflation was about 5% that coincided with Red and Yellow zone and it must be avoided for stock trading.
NEW APPROACH
NEW GREEN ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50
2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect)
3. Inflation is FALLING or AROUND TARGET
4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS
5. Stock Market RISING
NEW APPROACH for RED ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is FALLING or BELOW 50
2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED or ABOVE MEAN (Contractionary Policy in Effect)
3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS. (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%)
4. DXY is RISING
5. Stock Market FALLING or SIDEWAYS
NEW YELLOW ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50
2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED
3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%)
4. DXY is RISING or SIDEWAYS
5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS
NEW ORANGE ZONE
1. PMI Manuf Index is SIDEWAYS or BELOW 50
2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect)
3. Inflation is FALLING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%)
4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS
5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS
Historically whenever Interest Rates are dropping, US market goes down for some months:
US somehow try to control Inflation before bringing the interest rates down.
When Inflation is under control and Growth has not gone down much, then they decrease the interest rates
Because in past whenever Interest rates were decreased, growth also fell for some months and then improved.
Then FED does QE, which bring surplus cash in the market, Which drops Dollar rate, that helps the Stock Market grow.
Generally bullish sentiment heading into next weekWednesday's AUD CHF trade finally stopped out. I've been a little surprised by CHF resilience considering the 'risk on' environment. I have read an interesting article suggesting CHF and EUR strength can be attributed to holding relatively high amounts of gold reserves. I'm not sure how much long term credence I'd give that theory but it does make sense.
Meanwhile, the USD turned out to be the currency to short this week as the market starts to price in more rate cuts than thought a few weeks ago. It could be a tricky road ahead for the FED, as softening data, and now today's higher than forecast PCE data means the dreaded 'stagflation' word will be mentioned. But with the VIX well below 20 and the S&P touching all time highs, in the absence of Middle East re-escalation or fresh tariff concerns, I'll begin next week with a mind to continue looking for 'risk on' trades.
For today, I will let Friday's price action do what it's going to do and start fresh next week.
SPX500 Macro Fibonacci Projection – Eyeing 7190+ 🗓️ Posted by Wavervanir International LLC | June 26, 2025
The S&P 500 continues to respect key Fibonacci zones on the macro scale. After a strong recovery from the recent correction near the 0.5–0.618 retracement region (4800–5100), price is now hovering near critical confluence at the 1.0 level (~6150).
We’re tracking a bullish extension path toward 1.382 and 1.618 Fibonacci levels, which gives us a primary upside target zone between 7,190 and 7,795 — aligning with the projected long-term wave expansion. This structure favors a continued institutional accumulation phase, supported by macroeconomic resilience and liquidity conditions.
🔶 Key Levels to Watch:
Major Support: 4838.28 (0.5 Fib Retest)
Immediate Resistance: 6170–6200
Target Range: 7190.71 → 7795.41
🧠 Bias remains bullish unless price breaks back below 5830 with volume.
This is not financial advice. Shared for educational and strategic insights.
Let me know your thoughts, traders!
—
#SPX500 #Fibonacci #WaverVanir #MacroTrends #StockMarket2025 #QuantitativeAnalysis
Your investor profileEach investor has unique characteristics:
The amount of their current investments and savings
Their capacity to generate future income and allocate it to savings
Their personal and financial circumstances that may condition their liquidity needs
Their motivations and objectives for saving
Their discipline
Their willingness to learn
The time available for monitoring
Their knowledge and experience
Their risk aversion
All these characteristics are called investor profile .
Unless all these characteristics of your profile change, you must stay true to your investor profile. Bullish market environments are a temptation to take on more risk than we should.
It is also important to keep in mind that your investor profile changes with your life cycle .
While it’s great to share experiences, your investor profile is unique . When making your decisions, take advice based on your individual characteristics.
It is very important that you seek advice from trusted platforms and professionals and pay special attention to ensure that there is no clear commercial bias that could lead you to certain products or operations that may not suit your investor profile.
It is not a wise decision to copy from others : friends or forums created by entities with an obvious commercial bias, because your investor profile is unique.
Did you like it? Share with your friends.
by HollyMontt
rePOST - SPX Weekly Technical Breakdown – Week of June 22, 2025
SPX
Weekly Technical Breakdown – Week of June 22, 2025
After consolidating in a tight range earlier this month,
SPX
printed a subtle but significant outside day on Friday — breaking Thursday’s high by just 0.01 and forming a broadening formation. Like
QQQ
, this pattern reflects indecision and a potential shift in structure as bulls and bears battle for control. The short-term range is wide, with support at 5963.21 and resistance near 6026.68. Holding above 5963 can keep buyers in and opens the door for a retest of the psychological 6000 level, followed by 6059.40 (all-time high). However, a close back below 5963.21 could open the path for a quick flush toward 5900. Key intraday levels to watch include 5929, 5940.03, 5954.06, 5974.86, 5989.43, 6002.32, 6012.94, 6026.68, 6044.56, and 6059.21.
Technical Summary
• Structure: Outside day Friday formed a broadening formation
• Event Note: Slight break of Thursday’s high by 0.01 confirms outside bar structure
• Daytrade Pivots: 5929, 5940.03, 5954.06, 5974.86, 5989.43, 6002.32, 6012.94, 6026.68
• Macro View: SPX improves technically above 6000; breakout confirmed over 6026.68
• Downside Risk: Failure to close above 5963.21 could trigger fast move toward 5900
• Momentum Bias: Neutral to bearish until 6000+ is reclaimed and defended
Key Levels to Watch
🟢 Upside Resistance: 5974.86, 5989.43, 6002.32, 6012.94, 6026.68, 6044.56, 6059.21, 6059.40 (ATH)
🔴 Downside Support: 5963.21 (must hold), 5954.06, 5940.03, 5929
Trade Plan
• Hold above 5963.21 keeps upside scenario intact — look for reclaim of 5974.86 and 6000+
• Close below 5963.21 flips structure and may accelerate toward 5929, possibly 5900
• Scalps remain viable near 5954–6002 using intraday reactions at key levels
Decision Map
🟩 IF SPX HOLDS ABOVE 5963.21 → reclaim 5974.86 → target 5989.43 → 6002.32 → breakout toward 6026.68 → 6059.40 (ATH)
🟥 IF SPX BREAKS BELOW 5963.21 → watch 5954.06 → 5940.03 → 5929 → 5900 possible flush
Primary Trade Zone: 5954–6002
Alert Levels
Set alerts above: 5974.86, 6002.32, 6026.68
Set alerts below: 5963.21, 5940.03, 5929
This Week’s Key Catalysts for
SPX
This week’s economic calendar is packed with market-moving data that will likely influence
SPX
and broader risk appetite.
• Tuesday, June 24: Fed Chair Powell testifies to the House Financial Services Committee. His tone and guidance on future policy will be a primary driver for market direction. The same day also includes Consumer Confidence (June) and Fed commentary from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack — both potentially impactful.
• Thursday, June 26: Heavy data day with initial jobless claims, durable goods orders (May), core goods data, and the second revision of Q1 GDP. These reports will offer insight into both the labor market and the broader health of the U.S. economy.
• Friday, June 27: The most important inflation data of the week arrives with the PCE index and Core PCE (May). These are the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges and could shape expectations for a rate cut later this summer.
Overall, market participants will be closely watching Powell’s tone, inflation data, and any sign of slowing growth. Combined with Friday’s outside day and broadening structure,
SPX
is positioned for a move — the catalyst will determine the direction.
S&P 500 - Pay Attention All the world events going on right now has put the S&P in a very interesting position. Even on the brink of war we have seen the SPX pushing towards all time highs. Right now it is entering the major supply zone (where we have seen many tops form) between $6,090 and $6,150. This supply zone has been forming since Dec 2024 and is very important to keep and eye on. Either price will create a macro double top/M pattern and lead us back towards the lows, or we will break above this supply zone a start the expansion phase towards our 1.618 which is currently just slightly below $7k.
The macro looks amazing as our lower white line represents of 2021 previous ATH and during the tariff collapse perfectly got flipped into a new level of support which we represent as our 2025 Macro Low.
The short term is also looking decent. We have identified price is about to enter major resistance so if we do see a pullback we want to target that $5,800 level as the level buyers need to hold to continue momentum. If buyers can push price to new highs in the short term we expect to see that move towards $7k by the end of the year.
Short SPX500Elite Live Analysis
Weekly Market Structure: Price tapped into a key structure level and showed clear rejection.
Daily Market Structure: Currently bearish, actively pulling price lower.
4H Market Structure: A new structure has just been confirmed, providing fresh short-term context.
Expectations:
Looking for a structure-to-structure move on the Daily timeframe, aligning with the broader bearish bias.
Targets:
Primary targets are areas of structured liquidity and liquidity pools resting below current price levels.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6065.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area between the support level 5930.00 (which reversed the price multiple times from the start of June) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse 1 from last month.
The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the start of June.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6065.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1).
S&P500 calm reaction to geopolitical riskGeopolitics:
The US launched airstrikes on Iran, raising global tensions. Iran has vowed to retaliate, and Israel isn’t backing down. Trump warned of more action if Iran doesn’t make peace. The US issued a global travel alert, airlines are avoiding the Gulf, and Japanese banks may pull staff from the region. Oil is in focus, especially with tankers avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets:
Reactions were calm overall. The US dollar gained, oil prices rose briefly, and stock futures were mixed as investors waited to see what Iran does next.
Corporate News:
BNY Mellon is reportedly in talks to merge with Northern Trust, which could lead to a major deal in the banking sector.
Tesla launched its first robotaxi service in part of Austin, aiming to spark new growth after a sales slump.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6018
Resistance Level 2: 6043
Resistance Level 3: 6070
Support Level 1: 5910
Support Level 2: 5870
Support Level 3: 5845
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 20, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index has primarily exhibited downward trends during this week’s abbreviated trading session, narrowly failing to reach the targeted Mean Support level of 5940, as outlined in the previous Daily Chart Analysis. Currently, the index exhibits a bearish trend, suggesting a potential direction toward the Mean Support level of 5940, with an additional critical support level identified at 5888.
Contrariwise, there exists a substantial likelihood that following the accomplishment of hitting the Mean Support of 5940, the index may experience recovery and ascend toward the Mean Resistance level of 6046. This upward movement could facilitate a resilient rally, ultimately topping in the completion of the Outer Index Rally at 6073, thereby enabling the index to address the Key Resistance level situated at 6150.