SPX Outlook SPX500:
Economists predict it could reach 7200 this year, signaling a bullish outlook.
While a recession or depression is considered unlikely, if it does occur, bearish targets could drop to 3500–2000
SPXM trade ideas
SPX expected value for 2025 is 6863An example on how our tools can be used to make projections: SPX expected value for 2025 is 6863 with an expected range from 5885 to 7841 with a probability of staying within this range of 66.67%. The expected volatility for this year is 16.63%. These projections are based on the last 5 years of data.
$spy yieahhhLiking the risk reward here, a retest of the parallel channel. Heading to the med line.
If this breaks down, will get ugly to touch again lows of early Nov where we got a big volume shelf.
For now going to bet on the long side with a close stop in case this goes neeeih.
SPX 500 - New daily low, good buy opportunity Hello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trade on what we see the price movement on chart. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading position. This ensures every trading position is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
S&P 500 - Clear head and shoulders pattern on the 1 hour.The markets have had a rough end of the year. The S&P 500 has printed a pretty clear head and shoulders pattern. Is this a fake out, or will it break to the down side?
I don't see anything different now than a few weeks ago, so can we mark it up to end of the year tax covering and profit taking? Or is there something more severe going on? A rate cut and Trump taking office should be a boon to the markets, unless we have a black swan event in the near future that the insider know about and we don't.
Bird flu? War with Russia? Debt ceiling? Some other unknown event? Maybe its all just noise. The charts "never" lie though.
S&P 500: Final Day Analysis with Key Levels and Trend OutlookS&P 500 Technical Analysis
It's the final trading day of the year.
The price shows bullish momentum up to 5,969, which must be confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above this level. This could lead to a further rise toward 6,022, followed by a correction.
Conversely, stability below 5,969 will trigger a bearish move from 5,969 toward 5,899 and potentially 5,863.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5937
Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5905, 5863, 5790
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Momentum: Stability below 5,969
Bullish Trend: If 5,969 is broken
Retest Friday Low - SPX500
Tomorrow is a brand new year. Rest a day.
I also slow down to trade today. Get a intraday.
Win or Loss, up to GOD's plan
SPX lower level trends...1877 to 20251877 to 1932 bottoms connected fib channel...
interesting levels for retraces.
Weekly break out based target, ABCD pattern for SPXWeekly break out based target, ABCD pattern for SPX
S&P 500 over-valued and showing signs of weaknessIf you aren't going to speak your mind, why say anything?
Here is the situation;
The SPX has a Shiller Price to Equity Ratio of 37.6.
There are only two other times in the last 100 years that valuations were higher.
1. Back in 2021 valuations reached 38.6 before a ~25% correction.
2. During the 2000 dot com mania it got to 44.2. After the bubble broke, it was over 12 years before the S&P 500 exceeded its previous Dec 1999 high.
3. The average PE ratio for the previous 20 years is 26.7, this would imply the market is around 30% over-valued (Reversion to the mean would put the market at the 4100 level). That is unless we have reached a new investing paradigm, where the actual income generated by a business is uncorrelated to the value of the business. But, of course we haven't.
4. Safe investments like the 10 year treasury (4.63%) exceed the income generated by owning the S&P 500 (1.3%). If you also get capital gains, it is acceptable. But, when the market delivers losses, the safety of Treasuries will start to look really good.
Even very optimistic people would admit that we are closer to the top, than the bottom of the market.
A discount is inbound. Who knows how much it will be, I am picking prices will over-shoot. Time will tell.
Oh year, bearish divergence. Which, can be a very strong indication of reducing momentum, and a change of market direction.
SPX and business cyclesSPX valuation weighted to money supply and dollar index, it's showing strength, but it is near the 2007 top and still far from the 2020 top.
This chart remains the possibility to reach the 2000 top on 2025, but also the 2007 could be a top. What do you think?
It's time for profit taking soon... but already?I mean, look at this. We are at a major uptrend. But we can start to see some distressing indicators showing we are reaching a top. The saying “buy the rumors, sell the news” still holds. We now have 'TRUMP' news. I think that might say enough.
POSSIBLE SELL OPPORTUNITY ON SP500Price showing signs of strong momentum. We look for the pullback to take the trade.
SPX 500 - Be patient and wait to see how it goes up.Hello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trade on what we see the price movement on chart. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading position. This ensures every trading position is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave 12/27/24My prior post noted an SPX area that could terminate the rally that began on 12/20/24. Subsequently the SPX rallied just above the target zone illustrated in the prior post. The rally termination point came just below the point were Sub Minuette wavr "a" equals sub minuette wave "c".
The sharp decline on 12/27/24 appears to be the beginning of at least a multi-month decline.
S&P 500 Index key levels to Watch this weekIf you're trying to figure out the stock market's next moves, watch the S&P 500 Index. Last Friday marked a crucial point, with the index dipping to 5,930. This is the line you don't want to cross. Slipping below means we're below the 50-day moving average again and likely heading further south. Falling past this 5,930 mark breaks the trendline for the second time, and you'll probably see more pressure to dip below the post-FOMC low — that's your second critical level.
Things might get dicey from there, but if the selling picks up speed, I'd start eyeing the 200-day moving average as a target for early January 2025. Here's the bottom line: don't hurry to jump in at the start of January. We need some clarity on where the market's headed first.
Navigating the S&P 500🟢 Navigating the S&P 500
The S&P 500 index is near all-time highs, and many voices are starting to question these prices, even talking about a bubble. But is this true?
Setting aside opinions and focusing on technical analysis, it's important to note that as long as we don't lose the $5,860 level, we will remain in a bullish market . Therefore, buying in that area is interesting in terms of risk/reward.
Losing this level places us in a sideways zone, where range trading can be sought, knowing that we could be sideways for months.
Finally, if the $5,670 zone is lost, we would indeed be facing a bearish market where more severe corrections could occur.
✅ What pattern is unfolding in SP:SPX ?
We are seeing a Head and shoulders pattern developing, but we need to break the 5.860$ level to confirm it.
Consequently the break of the level confirms at least a Neutral market but also a H&S pattern!
✴️ Do you want me to analyze any market? Just comment below which market you want me to analyze.
ENJOY AND FOLLOW for more 😊
[Education] Stop Lying To Yourself About Your Trading DisciplineYou know exactly what's wrong. You've read all the books. Watched countless YouTube videos. You understand that discipline is crucial for trading success. Yet here you are, breaking your rules again.
I lost $15,000 and blew over 20 prop firm challenges before I finally faced the brutal truth: Understanding the importance of discipline isn't enough. You need a system to force yourself to be disciplined.
The Expensive Lessons of "Just One More Time"
Let me share something embarrassing. Last year, I was trading a $200,000 funded account. My rules were simple: 1% risk per trade, no trading during news, no moving stop losses.
One day, I was up 3% for the week. NFP was approaching. My position was in profit. "Just this one time," I told myself, "I'll hold through the news."
You can guess what happened.
The price started to go against me so fast that it slipped my stop loss. My stop loss got blown through. What should have been a 1% risk turned into a 4% loss. Just like that, I lost two months' worth of profits because I thought rules were meant to be broken.
Why You Keep Breaking Your Rules (Even Though You Know Better)
Let's be honest. You know you shouldn't move your stop losses, but you do it anyway. You know you shouldn’t revenge trade after losses, but you do it anyway. You know you shouldn’t risk more than 1-2% per trade, but you do it anyway. You know you shouldn’t trade during major news events, but you do it anyway.
Why?
Because knowing isn't the same as doing. It's like going to the gym - everyone knows how to lose weight (eat less, move more), but knowing doesn't get you abs.
The Real Reason You Lack Discipline
Here's what I discovered after coaching dozens of traders: The problem isn't lack of discipline. It's having too much flexibility in your trading plan.
Think about it:
"Wait for confirmation" - But what exactly is confirmation?
"Don't risk too much" - But what's too much?
"Let winners run" - But how long should you let them run?
Vague rules create room for interpretation. And where there's room for interpretation, there's room for breaking rules.
The System That Forces Discipline
After losing enough money, I developed what I call the "No-Choice Trading Framework." No choice, you gotta follow. Here's how it works:
1. Pre-Trade Rules (No Exceptions)
Write exact entry price, stop loss, target, and your emotions BEFORE entering
Screenshot your analysis
Calculate position size using this formula: (Account size × 1%) ÷ Stop loss in pips
Set alarms at entry levels
No entering without completing all steps
2. During Trade Rules (Zero Flexibility)
No looking at charts if using limit orders
No moving stop losses for any reason other than breakeven
No adding to positions
No checking P&L until trade closes
Phone must be in another room
3. Post-Trade Rules (Must Complete)
Journal entry within 10 minutes of trade closing
Score yourself on rule adherence (1-10)
Screenshot final result
Write what you'll do differently next time
Implementing The Framework
1. Start With Small Size
Trade 0.25% risk until you can follow rules for 20 straight trades
Only increase to 0.5% after proving discipline
Reach 1% risk only after 50 trades with perfect rule adherence
2. Create External Accountability
Share your pre-trade checklist with a mentor
Post your analysis before entering
Join a community where discipline is valued over profits
3. Remove Temptations
Delete trading apps from your phone
Set up a separate trading computer
Create a dedicated trading space
Turn off P&L display
The Uncomfortable Truth
You're not going to like this, but you need to hear it: If you can't follow rules with a $1,000 account, you won't follow them with a $100,000 account.
The only difference is that with a bigger account, your lack of discipline will cost you more money.
I now manage multiple six-figure funded accounts. The trades I take on a $200,000 account are exactly the same as the ones I take on a $10,000 account. The only difference is the position size.
Your Next Steps
Write down your exact trading rules (no vague statements)
Create a checklist that must be completed for every trade
Trade minimum size until you can follow rules perfectly
Track your discipline score separately from your P&L
Remember, the market doesn't care about your goals, your dreams, or your excuses. It only cares about whether you can execute your strategy with discipline.
The choice is yours: Continue lying to yourself about "just this one time," or commit to building systems that force you to be disciplined.
Another move down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD made a correction up and retested the whole Daily FVG above.
After that this pair dropped again.
Next week we could see a correction up and another drop.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction up and retest into the 4H FVG's. After a change in orderflow to bearish, you could trade shorts.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
Catch Big Reversals Like a Pro Using the GOLDEN RSIHow to Catch Market Tops and Bottoms Using the GOLDEN RSI Indicator
Trading market reversals can feel like a daunting task. But what if you had a secret weapon to help you identify tops, bottoms, and potential reversals with ease? Enter the GOLDEN RSI Indicator—a custom-built tool designed to revolutionize your trading strategy. In this tutorial, I’ll show you how to leverage this powerful indicator to spot reversal trades like a seasoned pro.
What is the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
The GOLDEN RSI builds on the traditional RSI (Relative Strength Index) by adding optimized zones and visual signals that highlight potential bullish and bearish reversals. Unlike the standard RSI, which requires subjective interpretation, this indicator provides precise entry and exit signals by visually marking key market conditions.
How to Use the GOLDEN RSI to Catch Market Reversals?
Understand the Key Zones:
Overbought Zone (Above 80): Signals a potential market top or reversal from bullish to bearish.
Oversold Zone (Below 20): Indicates a potential market bottom or reversal from bearish to bullish.
Neutral Zone (60-40): Consolidation phase where trends are less decisive.
Spotting Bullish Reversals
When the RSI dips into the oversold zone (below 20) and begins to reverse upward, the GOLDEN RSI will highlight a Bull signal. This suggests a potential upward move, ideal for long trades.
Pro Tip: Look for confirmation with price action, such as a bullish candlestick pattern or a break of resistance.
Spotting Bearish Reversals
When the RSI climbs into the overbought zone (above 80) and starts to turn down, the GOLDEN RSI will mark a Bear signal. This indicates a potential downward move, perfect for short trades.
Pro Tip: Combine with chart patterns like double tops or bearish engulfing candles to strengthen your confidence in the trade.
The Hidden Power of Divergences
Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows. This signals potential bullish momentum.
Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs while the RSI makes lower highs. This signals potential bearish momentum.
The GOLDEN RSI visualizes divergences clearly, so you can spot them effortlessly.
Use Risk Management Tools
Set stop-loss levels below recent swing lows (for bullish trades) or above recent swing highs (for bearish trades).
Use risk-reward ratios of at least 1:2 to maximize your profit potential.
Real Trade Example Using GOLDEN RSI
In the SPX 15-minute chart above, the GOLDEN RSI accurately identified:
A Bearish Reversal near the market top, as the RSI entered overbought territory and started to fall.
A Bullish Reversal as the RSI dipped into the oversold zone and recovered upward.
These signals allowed for precise entry points, minimizing risk and maximizing rewards.
Why the GOLDEN RSI is a Game-Changer
Unlike generic RSI tools, the GOLDEN RSI is designed with traders in mind. It eliminates the guesswork by providing visual cues for market reversals. Whether you’re trading stocks, indices, or crypto, this indicator is a must-have in your toolkit.
How to Get the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
Want to try it for yourself? Head over to TradingView and add the GOLDEN RSI Indicator to your chart. Use it alongside your favorite price action strategies to take your trading to the next level.
Conclusion
Reversals can make or break a trader’s portfolio. By mastering the GOLDEN RSI, you can confidently spot market tops, bottoms, and reversals with precision. Start using this custom indicator today and watch your trading results improve dramatically!
Don’t forget to like, share, and follow me on TradingView for more tutorials like this one. Let’s catch those reversals together!
S&P 500. New highs still ahead.
This cycle up has a lot of room to continue. In my view, the part of the right upper purple rectangle, the one above the green line with ‘support’ text, pretty much covers the area where SPX could fluctuate on its very likely way up to around 7000, ideally until Jul25. Don’t be mislead by the black channel upper line - it’s not a target, not a meaningful resistance, though, the level where two channels (black and brown) intersect (purple crosshairs), backed up with local fib x2.618 target, could be an important stopping point in ascent scheduled on 24-25th of March, with likely meaningful reaction from it with further consolidation (not excluding a reversal either). I use squares and fib targets, with the one in the middle already confirmed on many pivots, and the one on the left, projective, based on the final 7k target. Interesting is that the ground above 6000 is like an operational area free of any obstacles even of fib character, very much visible discovery zone.
