SPX DailyThere is still a correction left if you think from Elliot wave perspective. The correction might be until FVG2....
SPXM trade ideas
Post FOMC possibilitiesWe basically did what I had mentioned this morning - get down to the balance low, then come up to meet the channel. We have to see if they can get over the channel or do they reject from there.
SNP500/EquitiesThe current macroeconomic backdrop, shaped by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, highlights growing concerns over economic risks, particularly stemming from trade tensions and inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs. Despite a strong April jobs report, the Fed is signaling increased caution, warning that the risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment have risen. Treasury yields are reflecting this shift in sentiment, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.76% and the 10-year yield at 4.29%, suggesting that markets are beginning to price in a slower growth environment and potential future rate cuts.
In this environment, real estate investments are proving resilient. The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) is up +3.14% year-to-date, outperforming broader equity indices such as the S&P 500 (SPX), down –4.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), down –6.19%. Real estate typically benefits from a stable or declining interest rate environment, as lower yields reduce the discount rate applied to property cash flows and enhance the appeal of steady income-generating assets like REITs. Additionally, real estate assets—especially in sectors like multi-family housing and industrial logistics—can provide some inflation protection through lease repricing and consistent demand.
By contrast, the broader equity markets are showing signs of strain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have delivered negative returns year-to-date, reflecting investor unease around earnings growth, margin pressures from tariffs, and general macroeconomic uncertainty. Defensive equity sectors are faring better—Financials (XLF) are up +2.75%, and Consumer Staples and Health Care are showing modest gains. Technology and cyclical sectors such as Materials (XLB –0.39%) and Energy (XLE –0.30%) are underperforming, indicating a rotation into safer assets. The VIX (Volatility Index) at 24.72 confirms heightened risk aversion among investors.
Given this backdrop, a prudent portfolio strategy for the next three to six months would prioritize capital preservation, income generation, and inflation protection. A recommended tactical allocation might include 30–35% in real estate, leveraging XLRE and potentially private REITs in stable segments. Allocating 25–30% to defensive equity sectors, such as financials and consumer staples, can provide exposure to more stable earnings. Exposure to high-beta sectors like technology should be limited to 10–15%, given continued volatility and valuation risks. Holding 20–25% in cash or short-term Treasuries provides flexibility, especially with yields still elevated, while a 5–10% allocation to alternatives such as gold (XAUUSD +28.90% YTD) or inflation-protected securities like TIPs adds a useful macro hedge.
Looking forward, real estate is likely to remain attractive if the Fed maintains a dovish tilt or initiates rate cuts later in the year. Sectors with strong fundamentals, such as housing and logistics, should continue to perform well. Equities, however, are expected to remain volatile, with upside capped unless trade uncertainty is resolved or corporate earnings show resilience. Investors should favor value-oriented, dividend-paying stocks with lower volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar may soften gradually as rate expectations fall and inflation hedges rise in importance, further supporting real asset classes.
Wonder of Fibbo SPXSpend time on Charts it will tell you how to trade and Trade Accordingly jsut if you follow the Fibbo.
S&P500: Hit its 4H MA50. Can it provide a price push?S&P500 (SPX) is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.949, MACD = 19.450, ADX = 31.038) as the index just hit its 4H MA50, which is holding since April 22nd. This is at the bottom of the 4H Channel Up so as long as it holds, the signal is bullish. In the meantime the index again hit the P1 level, which was previously a Resistance. As long as this demand zone holds, we are aiming at the R2 level (TP = 5,790).
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S&P 500 Monthly : Major Correction or Reloading Phase?Wavervanir_International_LLC | May 7, 2025
The S&P 500 may have just completed a long-wave ABC correction on the monthly chart. Price rejected the 0.886 Fib zone (~5693) and is now printing bearish momentum with a distribution-style volume spike.
🔍 Bearish View (65%)
Wave (C) likely peaked.
Momentum divergence + high-volume rejection.
Target zone: 4611 (0.5 Fib + prior structure support).
📈 Bullish View (35%)
Higher low above 5400 + clean breakout above 5700 could target 6144.
📊 Market at an inflection point—watch liquidity, macro signals, and Fed tone closely.
#SPX #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #ElliottWave #Macro #BearishOutlook #BullishScenario #TradingView #Wavervanir
STOCKS | MARKET WATCH | Why Long-Term Investing Still Wins🤯 The start of 2025 was a bit of a rollercoaster for stocks.
Global markets got seriously rattled in the first few months by some sudden jitters. When President Trump announced those aggressive tariffs, it caused significant concern among investors, sending stock markets tumbling and prompting a flight to safety. Like Reuters said, April was "epic" for crazy market swings – the VIX fear index shot up to levels we hadn't seen since 2020 and 2008, and then just as quickly dropped back down. Markets went wild.
But then, by late April, the panic kind of ... disappeared. Once President Trump paused the implementation of the most severe tariffs, stocks bounced back pretty sharply. The S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost. After that nasty drop, it ended April only about 5% lower than it started the year. The Nasdaq, with all its tech stocks, pretty much ended the month where it began. So, after all that drama, major US stock markets weren't far from their all-time highs, showing how fast that "fear" can vanish.
📊 How key indexes did
S&P 500 (USA): 📉 Dipped in early April but bounced back late. Ended April around -5% for the year, after almost hitting a bear market.
Nasdaq Composite (USA): 📉 Similar story. Tanked on the tariff scare, then rallied when things calmed down, ending April pretty much flat for the year.
MSCI World (Global developed markets): 🤷♂️ Had its ups and downs along with the US markets. By the end of April, it was pretty much flat for the year – no big moves for the overall world index.
MSCI Emerging Markets: 📉 Didn't do as well as developed markets. Asian stocks, especially, took a hit early April because of trade war worries, so this index lagged, even though it recovered a bit by the end of the month.
FTSE/JSE All-Share (South Africa): 🇿🇦 The odd one out! The JSE jumped about +5% in the first three months of 2025, mainly thanks to mining stocks. It even hit a record high in March. The April craziness shook it up too, but because it did so well earlier, it was still slightly up for the year by late April.
Takeaway? Global stocks were jumpy, but they mostly recovered. By late April, most major indexes were close to where they started the year. South Africa's market was the exception, having a good first quarter that helped it weather the April storm.
⏳ Staying invested beats trying to be a stock Wizard
All this back and forth can make investors nervous. You start thinking, "Should I just sell now before it drops even more?" But history usually says that's the wrong move. Just sticking with it usually works out better than trying to guess the market's next move. BlackRock's iShares recently pointed out that "waiting for the 'right time' to invest might mean missing out on the best days," while staying invested lets you benefit from that "compounding" thing and get through the short-term bumps. Simply put, if you sit on the sidelines during big swings, you often miss the big rebound days. One study even showed that if you missed just the five best market days over 20 years, you'd end up with way less money than someone who just stayed in the market.
The legendary investor Charlie Munger put it simply: "The first rule of compounding: never interrupt it unnecessarily." Trying to jump in and out of the market around all the volatility is super tough – the biggest up days often follow right after the biggest down days. On the other hand, patient investors who just ride out the noise tend to grab more of those long-term gains. After all, with compounding, those small gains build on each other over time.
💰 The awesome power of compounding over time
Compounding basically means the sooner you invest and the longer you stay invested, the more your returns build on each other like a snowball rolling downhill. For example, the total return JSE All-Share index was up almost 23% over the last year. That kind of gain shows how just staying invested during good times can really grow your wealth. If you'd panicked and pulled out, you would have missed most of that growth. Over longer periods, like 5 to 10 years, the JSE has almost always gone up. The big lesson is that it's about "time in the market," not trying to "time the market," that really makes your returns grow and smooths out those bumps along the way.
🌍 What's driving the markets and the economy
There were a few big things happening that explain why the markets moved the way they did.
🇺🇸 US GDP Slowdown: The US economy actually shrank a bit in the first quarter of 2025. A lot of people blamed this on a big surge in imports as businesses bought stuff ahead of those potential President Trump tariffs. Even though this news spooked the stock market briefly in late April, underlying consumer spending was still looking pretty decent.
📈 US Company Profits: On the bright side, US companies reported some pretty strong profits. Analysts were expecting good growth in earnings for the S&P 500 in the first quarter, even with the economic slowdown. And it turned out even better – a lot of companies beat expectations, and overall earnings were up quite a bit from last year. This helped keep stock prices from falling too much during the pullbacks.
🇪🇺 European Spending Boost: In Europe, governments are starting to spend more. Germany, for example, proposed a huge fund for infrastructure and energy. The EU is also loosening its spending rules and increasing defense budgets. Some experts think this could actually boost Europe's economic growth a bit each year, which would mean better profits for European companies. Some even think European companies might see faster profit growth than US companies in the next few years because of this spending.
🇨🇳 Asia and Trade Wars: Asia was the weak spot. China's economy showed some signs of trouble, with a survey suggesting its manufacturing activity might have shrunk in April after a couple of months of growth. This seemed to be a direct result of the US tariffs. Asian stock markets took a hit on the tariff news, which dragged down the overall emerging markets index. Basically, tariffs and trade tensions hurt growth in Asia and its markets, which then affected returns in emerging markets globally.
✅ The bottom line
Early 2025 reminded us that markets can freak out quickly – but they can often bounce back just as fast. The swings felt scary, but history tells us that just sticking with your investments usually pays off. Major stock markets are pretty much where they were a few months ago, while economies and company earnings are still moving forward. For long-term investors, that wild week in April just reinforced an old lesson: stay invested and let compounding do its thing. As some experts say, "get invested and stay invested" because the most volatile times often have the biggest market gains. By sticking to your plan, you avoid missing those big up days when the "fear" fades and markets recover.
_________________________
SP:SPX
Sources: Recent market reports and data including the April SATRIX 2025 market newsletter “Once Again, Volatility Blinked and Fear Lost., nasdaq.com, reuters.com, ishares.com, insight.factset.com, reuters.com, iol.co.za
Bulls game over now Long closed.. Short from 5700 1St Tp 5432..2nd Tp 5330..3rd Tp 5103.. Good luck and safe trade
Mongoose Capital: Macro Dashboard – US500 Fed & Recession WatchOverview:
The Mongoose Capital Macro Dashboard offers a high-level view of key macroeconomic metrics driving market sentiment. Designed for the US500 (S&P 500 index), this tool tracks the interplay between Federal Reserve policy expectations, recession risk signals, and overall macro conditions in a clean, multi-panel layout.
Key Features:
FFR Cut Probability: Real-time assessment of Federal Reserve rate cut odds.
Macro Conditions Score: Composite indicator showing the alignment of liquidity, inflation, labor market health, credit spreads, yield curve status, and global growth.
Recession Risk Gauge: Aggregated recession probability, with dynamic background shading to reflect rising or falling risk.
Yield Curve & Credit Spreads: Plots to monitor inversion trends and credit market health.
Macro Event Markers: Highlights key events like CPI and FOMC meetings.
How to Use:
Optimized for the US500 on the 1D or 1W timeframe.
Use the Macro Conditions Score and FFR Cut Probability as a context filter for your trade setups.
Watch for Recession Score shifts (3/5 or higher) to flag caution zones.
Best Practice:
This dashboard is built for situational awareness, not as a direct buy/sell signal. Combine with technical analysis for trade execution.
Example Chart Setup:
US500 1D / 1W chart
Apply as an overlay to maintain macro visibility alongside price action.
Built by TheRealMongoose / Mongoose Capital.
Moment of Truth for the S&P and Overall MarketsSeeing quite a significant Head and Shoulders pattern form now.
We've had a strong rally back up after the plunge.
Now we are testing the 50d SMA.
If we can't hold above this, things could get really bad.
If this Head and Shoulders sees follow through to the downside, we could be seeing a very significant bear market over the next year or so.
Critical point here!!!
The Relief Rally is at ResistanceThe SPX touched the main support line, it bounced after the "Buy the Dip" setup until it reached the S/R level at 5,600. This level is at the end of the relief rally, and we can say we're "back to normal".
However, this is a critical point where this support was broken in the past and since support turns into resistance when broken, the most probably price action is a retracement back to the main support line, where depending how the market interprets the Fed Decision it may create a bounce and we can expect it to be consolidating in a trading range.
The main S/R trading range becomes , and if the market gains enough momentum, it could jump to the upper trading range .
It is not likely that the Fed will lower interest rates, since the effects of Tariffs is yet to be known. Inflation has been kept in check since the "soft landing", currently at 2.40%. Lowering interest rates now without knowing the collateral damage of tariffs would be a wild bet.
Market Prep for FOMCA few possibilities discussed. Be aware of the balance range we are in and the channels. Lots of emotional moves happen on FOMC day, so be aware of your emotions and have patience.
7100 pips by September 2025We are going to see a massive rally during Spring and Summer 2025 in Sp500. A magnificient blow off top where people will talk around the world about how good is going to be our economy.
I don´t want to talk about what is coming next.
When the SPX/Silver ratio breaks down, Silver goes on a bull runThis is due to money moving out of the stock market, with investors taking profits and looking towards making money in undervalued assets. Silver is incredibly undervalued when compared to stocks and even gold.
5600: Bullish Border or Bear Trap?Theta’s Working. Setup’s Lurking.
This market’s behaving like it needs a reboot. We’ve got the classic tag‑n‑turn setup doing a dodgy impression of itself-upper band got touched, but instead of a clean pivot, we’ve now got a bearish pulse bar flashing and a near‑miss on the lower Bollinger Band. It’s like waiting for a bus, getting two at once, and realising they’re both headed to “Confusion Junction.”
So here’s the deal: 5600 is now the cliff edge. Stay above, and we’ve got some bullish life. Drop below, and we’re in breakdown city. If you’re testing the waters today, keep it light. FOMC is on deck, and that alone can whiplash any intraday idea straight off your charts.
Meanwhile, theta quietly does its work in the background, even if price action’s stuck in a tight horizontal fog. And for the more cautious of you yes, we’re experimenting with broken wing butterflies as a way to lean into the system without going full throttle. More on that in today’s Fast Forward call.
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SPX Market View
Let’s break down the weirdness.
We’re in a mechanical tag‑n‑turn, but it’s misbehaving.
Usually, the upper Bollinger Band tap sets off a swift reversal. But this time? We got the tag… and then nothing. Just sideways drift. Until yesterday, that is, when bear pulse bars flickered in, suggesting sellers might finally be stretching their legs.
Now? We’re hovering just shy of a lower Bollinger Band tag, with the bands pinching tighter than a miser’s wallet. This setup is usually the calm before either a surge—or a slip.
Enter the line: 5600.
• Above 5600: bull bias stays alive.
• Below 5600: breakdown setup gets the greenlight.
The GEX crowd seems to be repositioning slightly, but the main range remains intact. Volatility premiums are compressing again, suggesting the real move hasn’t triggered yet.
If you’re risk‑curious but cautious, broken wing butterflys are worth exploring. By placing your risk off-centre, you create room to collect theta while limiting max damage if direction gets wonky. I’ve been testing it in real-time, and I’ll share specifics on today’s mentorship call.
And then, of course, we’ve got the FOMC main session coming up.
If that makes your stomach churn—don’t trade it. Watch it. Tomorrow’s another day. No one gets a prize for being caught on the wrong side of a news candle.
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Expert Insights:
Assuming a tag means turn – the tag-n-turn isn’t magic. Wait for confirmation.
Forcing trades around news events – FOMC days don’t need your capital.
Underestimating sideways risk – no trend doesn’t mean no danger.
Skipping risk-defined plays – BWB’s give breathing room when setups are unclear.
Failing to adjust bias – bullish and bearish both live here—bias must shift with price.
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Rumour Has It…
A mysterious algorithm known only as “TurnTagger X” is reportedly running its own contrarian SPX strategy. It waits for tag-n-turn setups-then does the exact opposite, cackling through your stops. One trader claims it’s powered by caffeine, salt, and old Janet Yellen quotes. Could be hedge fund AI… or just your broker’s cat walking on the keyboard.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
AI-Powered ETFs Go on Strike
A rogue batch of AI ETFs issued a joint statement this morning refusing to rebalance “until humans stop panic-buying tops.” BlackRock is reportedly negotiating with a mediator chatbot named GaryBot-9000.
Retail Traders Launch ‘NapMap’ App
After months of whipsaw hell, Reddit traders launched NapMap – a tool that identifies the safest hours to sleep through “algorithmic tantrums.” It’s already outperforming the S&P.
CBOE Announces ‘Calm VIX’
The Chicago Board of Exchange revealed its newest product: a “Calm VIX” that tracks how unbothered markets pretend to be. Readings are currently at ‘Zen Master’ despite 4 black swans circling the drain.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact
The phrase “broken wing butterfly” comes from aviation-not options. Pilots once used the term to describe asymmetric recovery manoeuvres. Traders later borrowed it to describe strategies with off-centre risk profiles-ideal when you expect range but want room for error.
Bonus trivia: the strategy can be structured for credit or debit, making it one of the few “choose-your-own-adventure” plays in options.
Cartoon metaphor for using broken wing butterflys in volatile markets.
SPX is going to 6000 (If maintains 5565)Spx is going to 6000 level, if it maintains level of 5565.
Note: This is not a buy/sell trade call.
S&P 500 Bearish Reversal Setup: Short Entry Below Key ResistanceEntry Point: Around 5,678.79
Stop Loss: Around 5,833.61 (above recent resistance zone)
Target Point: Around 4,831.37 (indicating a bearish target)
2. Technical Patterns:
The price hit a resistance zone (highlighted in purple) and reversed—this is often a bearish signal.
The trendline break (marked with the orange dot and blue arrow down) suggests a potential trend reversal.
The moving averages (likely 50 EMA and 200 EMA) indicate the price is still above the support zone but weakening.
3. Risk/Reward Ratio:
Risk (Stop Loss – Entry): ~154.82 points
Reward (Entry – Target): ~847.42 points
Risk/Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:5.5, which is favorable for shorting.
4. Trade Sentiment:
Bearish bias based on the breakdown from the resistance zone and confirmation from chart patterns.
If the price fails to hold above 5,682.87, a short trade may be validated with the target at 4,831.37.
SPX at a Tipping Point Rising Wedge Meets 200 EMAThe SPX is currently trading within a rising wedge a bearish pattern that typically signals exhaustion of upward momentum. Price has now stalled right at the 200 EMA, a key dynamic resistance level, and today's close came just beneath it.
If this rising wedge breaks to the downside especially with a confirmed rejection from the 200 EMA we could see accelerated selling. The next key support level to watch is $5,438.43. A breakdown from here would likely test that zone quickly.
This setup follows our earlier call from March 27, where we highlighted the $4,790 area as a bottom nearly nailed to the point. From that low, SPX rallied, but now the structure is showing signs of strain.
We’re at a decision point: hold the 200 EMA and potentially break higher or confirm the wedge breakdown and begin a new leg down.
The channels are everything We are bouncing around inside the channels. Its very possible we break up from this area, in which case the target will be the bollinger band at 5770 area. If we break down overnight for some reason it will be a large move down. It's difficult to say what will happen, but the channels right now are key to the price action.
US500 + Macro Radar Update | Mongoose Capital Macro DeskThe S&P 500 remains in a structurally elevated range around 5,612 following a technical bounce from recent lows. However, the broader macro environment continues to apply pressure beneath the surface.
The Macro Conditions Score prints 5/7 (71.4%), signaling a moderately restrictive backdrop. Meanwhile, the market-implied probability of a Fed Funds Rate cut sits at 52.25%, reflecting policy indecision rather than a definitive pivot.
Recession risk is cooling: the Recession Score has declined from 4/5 to 2/5 over recent months, indicating subsiding risk but not a full reset to expansionary conditions.
Yield curve signals remain inverted, though stabilization is emerging in key spreads (3M10Y, 2s10s). Fed policy sentiment remains neutral-to-hawkish, suggesting no immediate move toward accommodative policy.
📝 Institutional View:
This remains a macro-neutral market, not decisively risk-on. While equities have rebounded, the fundamental backdrop points toward a constrained upside without further improvement in liquidity or policy stance.
The rally is technical and positioning-driven, not yet macro-validated. The reduction in recession odds is positive but still within a tight policy leash.
“The market wants to believe. The data needs to confirm.”
Key Takeaways:
Tactical opportunities remain in place, but strategic positioning should remain selective.
Recession probability is declining but not eliminated.
The macro ceiling remains intact absent further loosening in financial conditions.
Published by Mongoose Capital | Macro Research Desk
(Chart: Mongoose Recession Radar Pro v1.6)
SPX Update: broken out of rising wedge. What Im seeing for now. Looking for a gap fill into tomorrow. My puts though are red, planning to swing my SPX puts. FOMC tomorrow, de-risk SP:SPX
Bullish continuation?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that line sup with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 6,520.93
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,434.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,791.21
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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$SPX Rejection at Resistance – Watch 5582 for the Next Major Mov📉 After tagging the 5685–5750 resistance zone, SP:SPX is flashing major downside risk.
🔍 Key Zones:
✅ Resistance tapped: 5705–5838
🟨 FVG (Fair Value Gap): 5642–5582
❗ Daily close below 5582 → Bearish WXY structure confirmed
🟥 Hard invalidation for bulls: 4835.04
💡 I’m open to a retest of the 200DMA (currently 5746), but below 5582 I wouldn’t expect a new high.
This setup offers clear structure, risk-defined short entries, and a measured breakdown scenario if support fails.
